Global Feed Markets: May - June 2013

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HUGE, record crops of wheat, maize and soyabean are on their way according to the keenly awaited first view of the new 2013/14 season from the US Department of Agriculture.

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Global Feed Markets: May - June 2013

  1. 1. Digital Re-print -May | June 2013Global Feed Markets: May - June 2013www.gfmt.co.ukGrain & Feed MillingTechnology is published six times a year by Perendale Publishers Ltd of the United Kingdom.All data is published in good faith, based on information received, and while every care is taken to prevent inaccuracies,the publishers accept no liability for any errors or omissions or for the consequences of action taken on the basis ofinformation published.©Copyright 2013 Perendale Publishers Ltd.All rights reserved.No part of this publication may be reproduced in any formor by any means without prior permission of the copyright owner. Printed by Perendale Publishers Ltd. ISSN: 1466-3872
  2. 2. GLOBALGRAIN & FEED MARKETSEvery issue GFMT’s market analyst John Buckley reviewsworld trading conditions which are impacting the full range ofcommodities used in food and feed production. His observationswill influence your decision-making.So why haveprices – whichare still relativelyhigh comparedwith their past tenor twenty yearaverages – stayedmore or less ‘range-bound’ rather thancollapsed sincethese ample supplyoutlooks weretouted in mid-May?HUGE, record crops of wheat, maizeand soyabean are on their wayaccording to the keenly awaited firstview of the new 2013/14 season fromthe US Department of Agriculture.USDA’s big supply numbers have surprised manyin the trade, implying more than enough of allthe major grain and feed raw materials to meetconsiderable growth in world demand during theyear ahead.Moreover, if USDA is right, the low coarse grainand oilseed stocks that have characterized theworld market for the past season can be rebuiltto more comfortable levels while already adequatewheat stocks will also get a useful top-up.So why have prices – which are still relativelyhigh compared with their past ten or twenty yearaverages – stayed more or less ‘range-bound’ ratherthan collapsed since these ample supply outlookswere touted in mid-May? The answer may be, ‘giveit time – and favourable weather.’Certainly at this early stage there are variousreasons to be cautious toward these bearish supplynumbers. Wheat output, for example, has beenforecast to rebound from last year’s disappointing655.6m to 701m tonnes – 21m more than theInternational Grains Council’s preliminary forecastissued in late April and 6m more than the UNFood & Agriculture Organization predicted twodays before the USDA forecasts.Of the latter’s45.5m tonne globalyear-on year increase,a full 30m tonnes isdown to expectedwheat crop recoveriesin the former SovietUnion, where yieldswere devastated insome regions last yearby prolonged droughtand heatwaves. YetRussian and Ukrainiancrops have hadnumerous problemsduring the winter andspring from frosts tolack of rain and it remains quite feasible that theircombined output could be over rated by USDAby as much as 6m to 8m tonnes.Some analysts also have their reservationstoward USDA’s EU crop forecast of 138.8mtonnes (+6.7m on year) amid too much rain innorthwestern member states and some heat anddryness issues already being reported in someeastern/southern countries. Australia (seen+2.5m) has also had some problems with lackof rain in key states and could yet end up with asimilar or smaller crop that last year’s.The USAalso continues to suffer problems with drought inits key hard red winter wheat belt, normally thelargest source of wheat for this the world’s largestexporter - although the USDA’s 56m tonne totalUS wheat crop forecast has probably already beenfully factored in by the market in recent months.On the other hand, Canada and Argentina shouldhave bigger crops on larger sown areas while Indiaseems to be heading for at least its second largestcrop ever.Even if world wheat output only rises by, say,30m tonnes, the concentration of extra supplies inexporting countries suggests a more competitivemarket ahead in the search for import custom.Wheat trade may decline slightly in 2013/14 due tobigger domestic crops in some importing countrieslike Turkey and Morocco and ‘swing’ importers offeedwheat turning back to more abundant maize.New crop forecasts keep on growingGrain&feed millinG technoloGy52 | may - June 2013
  3. 3. COMMODITIESWorld consumption of wheat is seen 20mtonnes higher next season but increases will beconcentrated within big producing countries– especially Europe, India and Russia. Overall,world stocks are still expected to increase byabout 6m tonnes to 186m, equal to about26.8% of consumption or 14 weeks’ supply – afar looser ratio than that expected for maize,for which both USDA and the futures marketsforecast prices far lower than those of wheatin the season ahead (an anomaly that willprobably be resolved by wheat prices fallingrather thanthose of maizerising).Despite thebetter supplyoutlook, as we go to press CBOT wheatfutures are showing price premiums on theforward months ranging up to 7% more forMarch 2014. The price situation is reversedin Europe, however, where new crop breadwheat prices are shown about 14% cheaperthan spot delivery on the Paris milling wheatfutures market. London feedwheat futures– which have actually been running close toparity with better quality French milling wheaton some positions – look rather over-priced,especially given the discounts being quotedon new crop wheat and maize from the BlackSea region.Grain&feed millinG technoloGy may - June 2013 | 53Annual Feed Conference25th26thJune 2013The following papers have already been confirmed:RUMINANTSLow protein diets for dairy cows-­‐ Kevin Sinclair, University of NottinghamNutrition, health and fertility in dairy cows-­‐ John Mee, TeagascMineral requirements and supply on dairy farms-­‐ Liam Sinclair, Harper Adams University College-­‐ Nigel Kendall, University of NottinghamGlobal milk and feed price trends and influences-­‐ John Allen, Kite ConsultingNON-RUMINANTSEnvironmental impact from poultry operations: influence ofnutritional inputs-­‐ Ilias Kyriazakis, Newcastle UniversityHome grown proteins in pig and poultry diets-­‐ Jos Houdijk, SRuCNutritional quality of soya products for non-ruminants.-­‐ Julian Wiseman, University of Nottingham; Mick Hazzledine,Premier NutritionFor further details visit: www.nottingham.ac.uk/feedconf• Large scale building and structural fumigation with ProFume• Dedicated, experienced and certified fumigation technicians• ProFume service exclusive to Rentokil Pest Control • Nationwide coverage allows rapid responseTo arrange a free survey of your premises,or to gain further information on ourFumigation services please contact us.0800 389 3643rentokil.co.ukWhen only theexperts will do!Pressure SwitchRotary Vibrating Rod Capacitance ProbeBIN LEVELSwithout climbing!Binmaster level controlsinfo@binmaster.com • www.binmaster.com© 2013 BinMaster, Lincoln, Nebraska uSaaffordable. reliable. safe.Inventory management systemsand bin level indicatorssmartBob and eBob softwareFEATURE• Large scale building and structural fumigation with ProFume• Dedicated, experienced and certified fumigation technicians• ProFume service exclusive to Rentokil Pest Control • Nationwide coverage allows rapid responseTo arrange a free survey of your premises,or to gain further information on ourFumigation services please contact us.0800 389 3643rentokil.co.ukWhen only theexperts will do!Pressure SwitchRotary Vibrating Rod Capacitance ProbeBIN LEVELSwithout climbing!Binmaster level controlsinfo@binmaster.com • www.binmaster.com© 2013 BinMaster, Lincoln, Nebraska uSaaffordable. reliable. safe.Inventory management systemsand bin level indicatorssmartBob and eBob softwareFEATURE
  4. 4. 16.5% of consumption or just over 8½-week’ssupply.Among the other coarse grains, consumersare promised a better balanced barley marketif crops increase as expected by 8m to a total138m tonnes, mainly in Russia (up almost4m and the EU (plus 1m). Although barleystarting stocks for the new season will belower, a limited increase in demand (mainlywithin Russia) is expected to allow these torecover somewhat during 2013/14. Along withthe bigger competing supplies of wheat andmaize this should held keep prices down forfeed barley users.Sorghum supplies are also seen substantiallyhigher in 2013/14 – plus about 5m, largelydue to much bigger sowings in the USA.Although a lot of this will go to its domesticfeed consumption, there will be more availablefor export too.A big jump in world soyabean output in thecoming season is expected to result in muchcheaper prices for oilmeal proteins acrossthe board. This year has already seen recordcrops in South America, where productionhas increased by 32m tonnes or almost 29%.The new season is expected to see morebeans sown in the USA which could alsoproduce its biggest ever crop. USDA’s firstforecast is 92.3m tonnes – up 10m on theyear, if normal weather allows trend yields.USDA also expects Brazil and Argentina tokeep increasing output, resulting in worldproduction increasing by another 16.4mtonnes. This would put world supply in surplusfor two successive seasons and, on currentestimates, add about 20m tonnes to the stockcarried over from one season to the next –also a record level.Currently, USDA is forecasting new season’sUS producer prices of soyabeans will average ina range of $9.50/10.50 per bushel – the meanbeing about 26.5% below the average for thepast season. Soya meal ex-US crushing mill isseen averaging in a range of $280/320 pershort tonne (2,000 lb), the mean representinga drop of 29% on the current season. TheChicago soya meal futures market also seesprices dropping by about 26% from currentlevels by the end of the year.next year. Itmay well betoo pessimistic,bearing in mindt h a t U S DAforecast Brazil’s2012/13 cropat 67m and hasnow raised thatto 76m (whereasBrazil’s government and at least one privateestimate suggests 78m tonnes.Consumption of maize is expected toincrease in 2013/14 by almost 73m tonnesof which 31.4m will be within the US itselfas the feed and ethanol industries (+23.5mand 6.4m tonnes usage respectively) respondto much looser supplies and much cheaperprices. USDA forecasts a seasonal ex-farmprice range of $4.30/5.10 per bushel comparedwith this season’s $6.70/7.15, the median pointdown by almost 32% (new crop Chicago maizefutures suggestprices about25% cheaperthan current oldcrop deliveries).Following thepattern of recentyears, the nextbiggest increasein global maizeconsumption isexpected withinChina wheredemand goes upby 17m tonnes,mainly in its feed industry to a new record224m.Other country increases in maize use aremainly one million tonnes or less.European maize consumption is notexpected to rise because of the bigger wheatcrop taking more feed demand. This situationshould also allow Europe to reduce maizeimports from this season’s record 10.5m to7m tonnes. A biggerMexican crop will alsoreduce that country’simport needs by 1mtonnes but USDAstill expects overallworld maize tradeto increase by about4m tonnes as Chinaincreases importsby that amount andsome other maizeimporters, largely in Asia, avail themselves ofcheaper export supplies.The bottom line for maize – if USDA’s cropestimates hold good – is for substantial surplus,pushing US seasonal ending stocks back toa nine-year high of 50.9m tonnes and worldcarryover to a 13-year peak of 154.6m – aboutOne concern, especially for the UK, remainsthe adequacy of quality wheat supplies. If thisyear’s UK crop drops again as feared after atough winter (USDA says 13% down at 11.55mbut some in the trade have been talking 20%losses) then clearly more imports will beneeded.How costly that may be depends onEuropean and other crop weather in comingweeks and months. If Germany and France getenough sunshine to generate good proteins,Hagbergs etc in their wheat and if Canadianand Australian crops perform as planned, thisneed not necessarily add up to soaring breadprices ahead.For maize, USDA has taken a fairlyoptimistic view of US 2013 crop prospectswhich it puts at 359m tonnes, near the topend of the range within which most tradeforecasts fall (340/360m with a few 370 out-riders). Some caution is required for thisfigure as rains and cold weather have putsowing weeks behind normal across the USCorn Belt. That may result in some designatedmaize land being sown to soybeans insteadand it may also – if these delays continue intoJune – start to have a significant impact inlower yield potential. No-one wants to takea 360m tonne or higher crop for granted afterwhat happened last year when drought cutover 100m tonnes off USDA’s early 376mtonnes prediction.The US forecast accounts for no lessthan 78.5% of USDA’s foreseen increase inglobal production (+109m to a new record966m tonnes). The remaining increases aremainly down to the EU crop recovering by7.1m tonnes, CIS crops up by a combined7m tonnes, China’s rising 4m and Serbia’s by3.5m tonnes. Interestingly, USDA has Brazil’scrop retreating from this year’s record 76mto 72m tonnes – the only major decline. Thissupposes more Brazilian emphasis on soybeansGrain&feed millinG technoloGy54 | may - June 2013
  5. 5. COMMODITIESfood supply (rice as well as grains and oilseeds)and stubbornly weak crude oil and metalprices ensuing from macro-economic issuesincluding sluggish economic growth in the US,China and the Euro zone. That all suggestslower raw material costs on the way, especiallyfor the feed industry.KEY FACTORS AHEAD –WHEAT• Those big Black Sea crop estimates arelooking more likely by the week, implying asurge in export competition during the nextfew months. It is hard not to see this helpingto bring down wheat prices on world andEU markets.US crop. Much of thatextra demand for USsoya came from thetop importer Chinaalthough this pressure isslackening as, like otherbuyers, it starts to focusinstead on cheaper newcrop offers.Soya will get cheaperas the year rolls on,demanding prices ofother less-valuable oilmeals like rape andsunflower meal follow suit.This glowing picture for forward supplymust of course be hedged with the obviouscaveat. It is only May as this review goes topress and the weather could yet spoil thingsby the time northern hemisphere wheat andbarley is harvested in Jun, July and August andmaize and soybeans from late August onward.However, at this stage, the ‘outside’interests that have helped exaggerate pricestrength in recent years don’t appear to beinterested in weather risk and seem to betaking USDA’s vaunted season of plenty atface value. Hedge funds, pension funds, banksand other investors are also reported to betaking a fairly negative view of commoditiesin general amid the better outlook for worldWorld oilseed production is also expectedto get a top up from larger sunflower andrapeseed crops, adding about 5.5m tonnesmore to total supplies and expanding totalworld oilseed carryover stocks to a record82.6m tonnes. The EU should see a modestuptick in its rapeseed crop but may be ableto avail itself of more imports from largercrops in Ukraine, Russia and Australia. TheCIS countries also expect a big hike in theirsunflower seed crops.Soya markets have actually been strongerover the past two months for several reasons.Brazil’s harvest has been delayed by weatherand transport/port infrastructure problemshandling record crops, not only of soybeasbut of maize and sugarcane too. Argentinesuppliers have also been slower to movetheir crop than the markets expected dueto high inflation encouraging hoarding and apoor exchange rate reducing the real incomefrom exports sold in dollars. Although SouthAmerican exports of both beans and mealhave now begun to pick up, the earlier delaysdrive a lot of unexpected import demand toUS shores and the resultant strong exportsof both beans and meal resulted in crushersand shippers competing for a supply thathad already fallen short of expectationsafter last year’s somewhat disappointingGrain&feed millinG technoloGy may - June 2013 | 55Grain&feed millinG technoloGy may - June 2013 | 39CIMBRIA.COMCONVEYING | DRYING | SEED PROCESSING | ELECTRONIC SORTING | STORAGE | TURNKEYA/S CIMBRIAFaartoftvej 22 | 7700 ThistedDENMARK | Phone: +45 96 17 90 00holding@cimbria.comSTORAGE SOLUTIONSUTMOST CONTROLAND CARE ENSURESOPTIMAL STORAGEAt Cimbria, we think of treatment and technology for every part anddetail. We possess valuable knowhow and experience gained throughmore than 60 years of global activities. And together with our thoroughknowledge of crop handling and processes, this contributes to a suc-cessful storage solution.2Flour Milling TrainingTo enrol or find out more, contact:nabim 21 Arlington Street London SW1A 1RN UK Tel: +44 (0)20 7493 2521 Fax: +44 (0)20 7493 6785 email: info@nabim.org.uk www.nabimtraining.com● Internationally recognised distance learning programme● Developed for millers by industry professionals● Studied every year by hundreds of millers worldwideAn indispensable tool for developing the knowledge andcompetence of flour millers and their colleagues.A clear presentation of the industry and process,in 7 modules.Dedicated tutor support given to every student, providingprofessional guidance throughout the course year.2013 Course Guideis available for download on the www.nabimtraining.comwebsite. Enrolments in 2013-14 course session should besubmitted – online or by email, fax or post – by August.Seven steps to successSafety, Health and HygieneWheat and the ScreenroomMill Processes and PerformanceProduct Handling,Storage and DistributionFlourPower and AutomationFlour Milling ManagementFEATURE
  6. 6. • Plenty of sunny days are now needed tobring late European, US, Canadian andCIS crops on and good harvest weatherto maintain breadmaking quality. Thereare some qualms about late sowing ofspring wheat in the USA – one of themajor sources of these high qualitybreadwheats. However, Canada, a muchlarger supplier, does now seem to begetting its sowing done under adequatemoisture conditions on a much larger areaand will probably have one of its largestcrops ever. Australia – with its important‘prime hard’ wheat production – is alsogetting some much needed rains to plantafter some nail-biting dry days in recentweeks.• India faces storage problems as another nearrecord crop nears with warehouses alreadyoverflowing. The solution – to drop exportprice ambitions rather than watch quality spoilunder open storage – could mean downwardpressure on world wheat export prices –just as the traditional cheap sellers – the CIScountries - gear up to sell their large cropsabroad• World wheat trade might be depressed bylarger than usual crops in Morocco, Turkey,Egypt and other North African/Middleeastern countries. Also, Iran now seemsto have completed a massive stockbuildingprogramme and may import 5m tonnes lessnext season. This is all likely to weigh furtheron prices.• The extent to which wheat use in feeds isreduced if maize crops recover as planned.That also depends on price. Wheat cannotpossibly sustain the big price premiumsover maize signaled on the forward CBOTfutures markets and still compete withmaize in feeds – either in the US or inglobal markets.MAIZE• Will the US manage to plant all its plannedarea on time to avoid ceding land to later-sown soybeans or some yield penalty?Current pointers suggest it could fall 1m to1.5m acres short. Yet all the moisture holdingup sowing of the last 25% is a wonderfulstart for the young crop, an early pointer tobumper yields.• Will US farmers get a ‘normal’ summer? Thefirst, possibly most important hurdle is mild/warm rather than hot weather during thekey pollination period. With later sowings,the ‘reproductive’ phase may be a few weekslater in many areas, deeper into the period ofsummer heat risk.• Delayed marketing of Latin American maizecrops means these will be competing withthe US into the latter’s new season, startingSeptember 1 – later than usual.• CIS countries have a much larger maize cropon the way and will be cheap sellers. Whatevercrop the US ends up with, there will be lessneed for US maize exports than usual.• India may continue to contribute more toworld export supplies of maize• If Europe’s own maize crop rebounds asexpected, import requirements will decline• US corn consumption for ethanol is forecasthigher in 2013/14 but that can be comfortablyaccommodated if the forecast US crop comesthrough. US maize ethanol use may also berestrained by larger imports of cheap ethanolfrom a record Brazilian sugarcane crop• China continues manage its constantlygrowing feed demand with larger crops ofits own but it is expected to import morein 2013/14. It has been buying recently andlarger than expected amounts going in thisdirection could make US markets frisky aspurchases are anounced• Speculators’ enthusiasm to buy into any cropweather problems. This is becoming less ofa factor as the big crop numbers mentionedabove start to look attainable while the‘managed money community becomesincreasingly disillusioned with diminishingreturns from commodity investments ingeneral – from gold to oil. As we go to pressthe regular report of US fund investments inthe top 11 commodity futures markets thereshows a 15% drop to its lowest level in sixweeks.OILMEALS/PROTEINS• Will the US get its soyabean crop plantedon time and may it pick up some extraacreage from delayed maize planting? Ifit does, soya prices will be under furtherdownward pressure into the last quarterof 2013• Planting and growing weather in the USA. Alater sown crop has plenty of moisture at thisstage. It looks likely to be a big one• South America’s delayed marketing of recordcrops means more competition well into theUSA’s peak, post-harvest marketing period.That suggests more downward pressure onsoya costs.• Chinese demand for soya meal is expectedto grow below its long term trend in2013/14 but its demand for beans couldrocket as its domestic crop continues toshrink. It remains far and away the largestdestination for US and global soyabeanexports• Final EU/CIS rapeseed & sunflower seedand Canadian canola plantings - and theircrop weather. After a delayed start,Canada’s rapeseed crop could go eitherway while Australia’s may decline afterrapid growth in recent years. The EU’scrop may be slightly bigger. 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  8. 8. www.gfmt.co.ukLINKS• See the full issue• Visit the GFMT website• Contact the GFMT Team• Subscribe to GFMTA subscription magazine for the global flour & feed milling industries - first published in 1891INCORPORATING PORTS, DISTRIBUTION AND FORMULATIONIn this issue:• Additivesfor flourstandardisationPart II:Additives other thanenzymes• High efficiencyelevatorbuckets:modern vstraditionaldesign• Feed focusPoultry• Assessingnutritional valuewith NIRMay-June2013• ‘Kill step’validation oflow-moistureextrusion• Adding value tofeed millingwith profit-oriented feedformulation• Pest controlacross the supplychainfirst published in 1891This digital Re-print is part of the May | June 2013 edition of Grain & FeedMilling Technology magazine. Content from the magazine is available to view free-of-charge, both as a fullonline magazine on our website, and as an archive of individual features onthe docstoc website.Please click here to view our other publications on www.docstoc.com.To purchase a paper copy of the magazine, or to subscribe to the paper edi-tion please contact our Circulation and Subscriptions Manager on the linkadove. INFORMATION FOR ADVERTISERS - CLICK HEREArticle reprintsAll Grain & Feed Milling Tecchnology feature articles can be re-printed as a 4 or 8 page booklets (thesehave been used as point of sale materials, promotional materials for shows and exhibitions etc).If you are interested in getting this article re-printed please contact the GFMT team for more informa-tion on - Tel: +44 1242 267707 - Email: jamest@gfmt.co.uk or visit www.gfmt.co.uk/reprints

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