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Lisbon talk for SteepStreams

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This contains the talk given at the 2017 meeting of the SteepStream ERANET project. It is assumed to talk about the hydrological cycle of the Noce river in Val di Sole valley (Trentino, Italy). It is a preliminary view of what we are going to do in the project.

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Lisbon talk for SteepStreams

  1. 1. Simulating the hydrology of the Sole (Sun) Valley The SteepStream perspective Riccardo Rigon, Stefano Tasin, Michele Bottazzi, Francesco Serafin & Marialaura Bancheri Anancientdoor,inValdiSole,2017 SteepStream Annual Meeting, Lisbon, October 6th, 2017
  2. 2. !2 Objective Rigon et Al. To study some basin taken as prototype in the project. Get they hydrology right and, eventually, determine the solid transport, besides the water transport, as a function of the foreseen climate change.
  3. 3. !3 Hydrometers Meteo stations River network Catchment boundary Legend 0 2.5 5 7.5 10 km The Area Rigon et Al.
  4. 4. !4 The Real Area Rigon et Al.
  5. 5. !5 Rigon et Al.
  6. 6. !6 Why we do not study the smallest, Meledrio, basin ? Because: •we do not have appropriate data for the basin (so far) •it is too small for having reliable projection of forcings. Therefore we study the whole Noce basin closed at Malè and then, downscale/ and or specialise to Meledrio. We’ll also try to assess errors in estimates. Why the whole area ? Rigon et Al.
  7. 7. !7 Now assume to have a river network Consider the path starting in A1, for example. It can be decomposed into steps (states) and we can write the water budget for each of them. River Networks We are using, an planning to use, spatially semi-distributed, time- continuous models Rigon et Al.
  8. 8. !8 This paths can be described by a graph whose diagrams is River Networks Rigon et Al.
  9. 9. !9 The squares are fluxes The ball is a storage This is the corresponding equation* *Usually they are ordinary differential equations but they could be also partial differential equations Rigon et Al. A little of explanation The full story @ Rigon & Bancheri, 2017
  10. 10. !10 The full network interactions can be represented as follows River Networks Rigon et Al.
  11. 11. !11 Actually any “ball” (reservoir) can be exploded in parts (further graphs = further ODEs) Rigon et Al. Embedded networks of reservoirs
  12. 12. !12*Image from Li, H., Hydrological consequences of climate change in Scandinavia, 2014 * Rigon et Al. Embedded networks of reservoirs
  13. 13. !13 Time continuous vs event based Traditional studies on hydraulic construction refers to event-based modelling. This is normed in the concept of return period and is based on the assumed stationarity of climate* *Milly, P. C. D., Betancourt, J., Falkenmark, M., Hirsch, R. M., Kundzewicz, Lettenmaier, D. P., & Stouffer, R. J. (2008). Stationarity Is Dead: Whither Water Management? Science, 319, 1–2. See also: Serinaldi, F., & Kilsby, C. G. (2015). Stationarity is undead: Uncertainty dominates the distribution of extremes. Advances in Water Resources, 77(C), 17–36. http://doi.org/10.1016/j.advwatres.2014.12.013 Rigon et Al.
  14. 14. !14 In any case, our strategy I is to simulate 1. long series of climate forcing (hundreds of years) using Breinl’s Weather Generator 2. for several times 3. the hydrological cycle of the Sole-Non valleys From them 4. Extract relevant events and estimating their statistics 5. Cope with uncertainties 6. Feed with those results hydraulic modelling Time continuous vs event based Rigon et Al.
  15. 15. !15 Multimodel We do not use a single model but at least two (three) submodels based on GEOFRAME components Rigon et Al.
  16. 16. !16 different component, in order to give the maximum flexibility of connections. Therefore, five different components forming a MS were used for each HRU in which the domain was discretized. Figure 3.2: Representation of the embedded reservoir model using time- varying Petri-Nets. Five components are storage, snow, canopy, root zone, surface flow, and groundwater, which are represented through circles of different colors and specifications. Snow storage is repre- ERM model Embedded Reservoirs Model Bancheri, M, A flexible approach to the estimation of water budgets and its connection to the travel time theory, Ph.D. Dissertation, 2017 Bancheri, N, Serafin, F. and R. Rigon, Travel time consequences of different modeling schemes, in preparation, 2017 Rigon et Al.
  17. 17. !17 different component, in order to give the maximum flexibility of connections. Therefore, five different components forming a MS were used for each HRU in which the domain was discretized. Figure 3.2: Representation of the embedded reservoir model using time- varying Petri-Nets. Five components are storage, snow, canopy, root zone, surface flow, and groundwater, which are represented through circles of different colors and specifications. Snow storage is repre- ERM model Embedded Reservoirs Model Bancheri, M, A flexible approach to the estimation of water budgets and its connection to the travel time theory, Ph.D. Dissertation, 2017 Bancheri, N, Serafin, F. and R. Rigon, Travel time consequences of different modeling schemes, in preparation, 2017 Snow modelling Canopy Root zone/ Shallow Groundwater Hydrological Routing Groundwater Rigon et Al.
  18. 18. !18 HBV model Seibert, J., & Vis, M. J. P. (2012). Teaching hydrological modeling with a user-friendly catchment-runoff- model software package. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16(9), 3315–3325. http://doi.org/ 10.5194/hess-16-3315-2012 Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenavdelning Rigon et Al.
  19. 19. !19 HBV model Seibert, J., & Vis, M. J. P. (2012). Teaching hydrological modeling with a user-friendly catchment-runoff- model software package. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16(9), 3315–3325. http://doi.org/ 10.5194/hess-16-3315-2012 Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenavdelning Snow m odelling Soil/Canopy Shallow Groundwater Hydrological routing Groundwater Rigon et Al.
  20. 20. !20 A few slides on OMS OMS Object Modelling System version 3 http://oms.colostate.edu/ David et al. Rigon et Al.
  21. 21. !21 Figure 5.7: Schema of the connection of the JGrass-NewAge components, necessaries to perform the modelling solution: the blu arrows represents the connection out-to-in made possibile thanks to OMS3. Schemes of work inside OMS When you really deploy, they appear hidden modelling parts Rigon et Al. A few slides on OMS
  22. 22. !22 Details upon request Rigon et Al. Where to find details The full story @ Rigon & Bancheri, 2017b and @Rigon et Al., 2017
  23. 23. !23 Source code OMS projects Community blog Documentation Manca Mailing list General Information Rigon et Al.
  24. 24. !24 Methods We estimate the whole hydrological cycle budget Marialaura Bancheri – A TRAVEL TIME MODEL FOR WATER BUDGET OF COMPLEX CATCHMENTS Figure 5.12: Waterfall charts of the relative contributes of the water balance for the canopy, root zone and groundwater reservoirs. Green bars represent the inputs of the storage, blu bars represents the outputs and red bars represent the change in storage. Two selected month, March 1994 and September 1994, are shown in order to compare the annual variability of each contribute. Plot like like Figure 5.12and 5.13 can be produced for any of the HRU, for any hour or more aggregated temporal scale. Figure 5.13 shows the daily total actual evapotranspiration (evaporation from the wet canopy plus evapotranspiration from the root zone) in selected days of the years. As it is clear from the maps, the AET does not vary much over the year. This situation is common to many other places in humid areas, (Lewis et al. , 2000; Oishi et al. , 2010). Some HRUs presents values of AET always smaller than the rest of the basins. This is mainly given to Bancheri, M, A flexible approach to the estimation of water budgets and its connection to the travel time theory, Ph.D. Dissertation, 2017 for any reservoir, actually. Closing the budget thought necessary for an accurate assessment of fluxes and runoff. Especially in view of climate projections. Rigon et Al.
  25. 25. !25 Methods Standard procedure: • calibration first • projection (driven by the weather generation) eventually Rigon et Al.
  26. 26. !26 Rigon et Al. Very first trials: the whole basin
  27. 27. !27 Rigon et Al. Very first trials: the whole basin
  28. 28. !28 Rigon et Al. Very first trials: Meledrio
  29. 29. !29 Rigon et Al. Very first trials: Meledrio
  30. 30. !30 Rigon et Al. Very first trials: Meledrio
  31. 31. !31 Suppose for end of March 2018 or before we have solved all the calibration issues, and and made the simulations required what we could do next (besides projections): • We give our hydrography (for channels where debris flow or sediment transport happens) to our friends to do hydraulic of sediment transport • We can move to evaluate sediment production outside channels For this we need a different type of modeling (os, as a minimum, idealise some sub-grid processes) Rigon et Al. Beyond that
  32. 32. 32 GEOtop 2.0 ? Rigonetal,2006;Bertoldietal.,2006 Rigon et Al. Parflow,AsbyanFalgout,1996 Hydrogeosphere,TherrienandSudicki,1996 Catflow,Zeheetal.,2001 InHM,VanderKwaak,andLoague,2001 Cathy,PaniconiandPutti,1994 tRIBS,Ivanovetal,2004 DHSVM,Wigmostaetal.,1994
  33. 33. 33 Rigonetal,2006 BATS,Dickinsonetal.,1986, NoahLSM,Chenetal.,1996, LSM,Bonan,1996 SEWAB,Megelkampetal.,1999 CLM,Daietal.,2003 Rigon et Al. GEOtop 2.0 ?
  34. 34. 34 In What GEOtop is different ? Snow height, density, temperature) Freezing Soil - Permafrost Zanotti et al, 2004; Dall’Amico et al., 2011 CROCUS,Brunetal.,1992 Alpine3D,Lenhingetal.,2006 Rigon et Al. GEOtop 2.0 ?
  35. 35. !35 Some relevant references: Giuseppe, F., Simoni, S., Godt, J. W., Lu, N., & Rigon, R. (2016). Geomorphological control on variably saturated hillslope hydrology and slope instability. Water Resources Research, 52(6), 4590–4607. http://doi.org/ 10.1002/2015WR017626 Formetta, G., Capparelli, G., David, O., Green, T., & Rigon, R. (2016). Integration of a Three-Dimensional Process- Based Hydrological Model into the Object Modeling System. Water, 8(1), 12–15. http://doi.org/10.3390/ w8010012 Simoni, S., Zanotti, F., Bertoldi, G., & Rigon, R. (2008). Modelling the probability of occurrence of shallow landslides and channelized debris flows using GEOtop-FS. Hydrological Processes, 22(4), 532–545. http:// doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6886 Lanni, C., Borga, M., Rigon, R., & Tarolli, P. (2012). Modelling shallow landslide susceptibility by means of a subsurface flow path connectivity index and estimates of soil depth spatial distribution. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 16(11), 3959–3971. http://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3959-2012 Endrizzi, S., Gruber, S., Dall'Amico, M., & Rigon, R. (2014). GEOtop 2.0: simulating the combined energy and water balance at and below the land surface accounting for soil freezing, snow cover and terrain effects. Geoscientific Model Development, 7(6), 2831–2857. http://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-7-2831-2014 Rigon et Al. GEOtop about landslides
  36. 36. !36 Simoni, S., Zanotti, F., Bertoldi, G., & Rigon, R. (2008). Modelling the probability of occurrence of shallow landslides and channelized debris flows using GEOtop-FS. Hydrological Processes, 22(4), 532–545. http://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6886 Rigon et Al. Further data for GEOtop
  37. 37. !37 Simoni, S., Zanotti, F., Bertoldi, G., & Rigon, R. (2008). Modelling the probability of occurrence of shallow landslides and channelized debris flows using GEOtop-FS. Hydrological Processes, 22(4), 532–545. http://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.6886 Rigon et Al. To obtain something like this
  38. 38. !38 As paper testifies, we have the tools for doing it since quite a long time. However, • Numerics we use now is much more refined with respect to ten years ago • Geotechnics is better and based on new theories by Ning Lu • Possibly we could use a new model, say GEOtop-w, which uses even more refined algorithms, derived from recent numerical work by colleagues. Rigon et Al. This we can already do (in principle)
  39. 39. !39 Some missing steps: Rigon et Al. This we have to solve
  40. 40. !40 Rigon et Al. Moving sediment to the channel network Adding it to the flood See which effects it has to the flood waves Some missing steps: This we have to solve
  41. 41. !41 Find this presentation at http://abouthydrology.blogspot.com Ulrici,2000? Other material at Questions ? Rigon et Al.

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