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GRM 2011: KEYNOTE ADDRESS-3 --The Importance of Agricultural Data and Informatics for Climate Change Adaptation

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GRM 2011: KEYNOTE ADDRESS-3 --The Importance of Agricultural Data and Informatics for Climate Change Adaptation

  1. 1. 1 • 3/21/11The Importance of AgriculturalData and Informatics forClimate Change AdaptationAndy Jarvis, Julian Ramirez,Glenn Hyman, Jacob van EttenCCAFS
  2. 2. 2 • 3/21/11TheChallenge
  3. 3. 3 • 3/21/11The concentration ofGHGs is risingLong-term implicationsfor the climate and forcrop suitability
  4. 4. 4 • 3/21/11Historical impacts on food security% Yield impactfor wheatObserved changes in growingseason temperature for cropgrowing regions,1980-2008.Lobell et al (2011)
  5. 5. 5 • 3/21/11Average projected % change in suitability for 50 crops, to 2050Crop suitability is changing
  6. 6. 6 • 3/21/110 0.25 0.50 0.75 1Exacerbating the yield gapFrom Licker et al, 2010Climate change will likely pose additional difficulties for resource-poor farmers(e.g., in Africa), thereby increasing the yield gap
  7. 7. 7 • 3/21/11In order to meetglobal demands,we will need60-70%more foodby 2050.Food security is at risk
  8. 8. 8 • 3/21/11“Unchecked climate change will result in a20% increase in malnourished children by2050,” relative to the full mitigation scenario.-Gerald Nelson, IFPRI/CCAFS
  9. 9. 9 • 3/21/11ProgressiveAdaptationTHE VISIONTo adapt farmingsystems, we needto:• Close theproduction gapby effectivelyusingtechnologies,practices andpolicies• Increase thebar: develop newways to increasefood productionpotential• Enable policiesand institutions,from the farm tonational level
  10. 10. 10 • 3/21/11A heavy reliance on models• For a 2030 world, difficult to do workwithout the aid of models• Starts with the Global Climate Models…• Through to agricultural impacts models
  11. 11. 11 • 3/21/11And models need data…• On climate• Weather• Crop distribution• Crop productivity• Varietal adaptations• Genetic traits• Social parameters• …and the list goes on….
  12. 12. 12 • 3/21/11And that data should be..• Available (publically)• Documented and organised• Or you’ll have another ClimateGate
  13. 13. 13 • 3/21/11A selection of data and informaticstools being developed in CCAFS• Agricultural trial data• GxE analysis with an emphasis on the E• Setting breeding priorities for a climatechanged world• Analogues• Pulling it all together under a knowledgemanagement umbrella: the AMKN
  14. 14. 14 • 3/21/11>> Multi-site agricultural trialdatabase(agtrial.org)20,000+maize trialsin 123researchsitesEffect of +1ºCwarming onyieldSites with >23ºCwould suffereven if optimallymanagedMore than 20%loss in siteswith >20ºC,under droughtLobell et al. 2011
  15. 15. 15 • 3/21/11• Over 3,000 trials• 16 crops• 20 countries• > 15 internationaland nationalinstitutionsNew data>> Multi-site agricultural trialdatabase(agtrials.org)
  16. 16. 16 • 3/21/11Importance & Potential• Collating input climate and agriculturaldata• Design of experiments• Calibration, validation and crop modelruns• Exploration of adaptation options– Genetic improvement– On-farm management practices• Test them via modelling• Build “adaptation packages”• Assess technology transfer options(c) Neil Palmer (CIAT)
  17. 17. 17 • 3/21/11>> Multi-site agricultural trialdatabase(agtrial.org)20,000+maize trialsin 123researchsitesEffect of +1ºCwarming onyieldSites with >23ºCwould suffereven if optimallymanagedMore than 20%loss in siteswith >20ºC,under droughtLobell et al. 2011
  18. 18. 18 • 3/21/11GxE: OPV vs hybrid
  19. 19. 19 • 3/21/11GxE: duration
  20. 20. 20 • 3/21/11
  21. 21. 21 • 3/21/11Current Climatic Suitability
  22. 22. 22 • 3/21/11Current Climatic Constraints
  23. 23. 23 • 3/21/11Future Suitability
  24. 24. 24 • 3/21/11Benefits of breeding options
  25. 25. 25 • 3/21/11The Analogue Concept• We heavily rely on models to tell uswhat the future holds– GCM/RCM projections– Crop models, household models, farmingsystem models• Few take into account human adaptivecapacity, and social and cultural factorsthat contribute to decision making
  26. 26. 26 • 3/21/11The Analogue Concept• Analogues: Use spatial variability inclimate as a means of having a realexperiment of what the future holds for asite• Where can I find my future projectedconditions, TODAY?
  27. 27. 27 • 3/21/11Karnal (India)• Rainy season from June to September
  28. 28. 28 • 3/21/11Why we think this an importantapproach• Facilitating farmer-to-farmer exchangeof knowledge• Permitting validation of computationalmodels and trialing of newtechnologies/techniques
  29. 29. 29 • 3/21/11http://gismap.ciat.cgiar.org/analogues
  30. 30. 30 • 3/21/11Adaptation to progressive climate change · 1>> Spotlight on: The AMKN PlatformIt links farmers’ realities on theground with promising scientificresearch outputs, to inspire newideas and highlight currentchallenge.Why is it useful?The Climate Change Adaptationand Mitigation KnowledgeNetwork platform is a portal foraccessing and sharingagricultural A&M knowledge.What CCAFS output?
  31. 31. 31 • 3/21/11AN EXAMPLE OF USING THESOME OF THESEAPPROACHES TO LINKKNOWLEDGE AND DATA
  32. 32. 32 • 3/21/11Starting site: Kaffrine, Senegal- CCAFS site- 600 mm annual rainfall- Min. Temp. 14.8°C- Max. Temp. 39.1°C- Main crops:- Millet- Maize- Peanuts- Sorghum- Sesame-Climate Change threats:Erratic Rainfall-Socio-economicconstraints:-High poverty level- Low access tocapital- No attractive marketKaffrine, Senegal(x:-15.54,y:14.106)
  33. 33. 33 • 3/21/11Change in climate, 2020 – Kaffrine, Senegal0510152025303540450501001502002501 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Temperature(ºC)Precipitation(mm)MonthCurrent precipitation Future precipitation Future mean temperatureCurrent mean temperature Future maximum temperature Current maximum temperatureFuture minimum temperature Current minimum temperatureAverage Site-specific Changes in Monthly Climate (based on 19 GCM Models A2a) (IPCC, 2007)Average Climate Change Trends:- Decrease in precipitation from 660 mm to 590.58 mm- Increase of mean temperature of 0.344°C
  34. 34. 34 • 3/21/11Crop suitability – Kaffrine, Senegal-60-40-20020406080100Suitability(%) Current suitabilitySuitability change in 2050Currentsuitability (%)Suitabilitychange(%)Growingseason(days)Tempmin(°C)Tempoptimalemin(°C)Tempoptimalemax (°C)Tempmax(°C)Precipitationmin (mm)Precipitation optimalemin (mm)Precipitationoptimalemax (mm)Precipitationmax (mm)Maize 96 -6 215 10 18 33 47 400 600 1200 1800Millet 100 -13 170 15 20 32 45 200 500 750 1000Peanut 100 -3 120 10 22 32 45 400 500 1500 4000Sesameseed 100 -6 110 10 20 30 40 300 500 1000 1500Sorghum 100 -55 195 8 22 35 40 300 400 600 700
  35. 35. 35 • 3/21/11- Mean of thedissimilarity indexof 24 GCMsbetween thestarting siteKaffrine, Senegalwith the entireworld- Climateparameters:-Monthly temperature- Monthly rainfall- Scenario A1B,2030HighclimatesimilarityWhere can we find a region with similar climaticconditions to Kaffrine, Senegal in 2030?Climatesimilarity
  36. 36. 36 • 3/21/11Tougou, BurkinaFaso Lawra Jirapa,GhanaSegou, MaliFakara, Niger0.511.520 5 10 15 20 25StandarddeviationValue of Mean dissimilarity of 24GCMsPotential 2030-analogues of Kaffrine, SenegalCCAFS site withminimum value ofdissimilarity with theclimate of Kaffrine,Senegal= Tougou, BurkinaFasoBest consistencybetween the 24GCM’s= Fakara , NigerThe current climateof Fakara is similarto the futureprojected climate inKaffrineFakara is the most likelyanalogue of KaffrineZoom on high similarity climate of CCAFS sites
  37. 37. 37 • 3/21/11- CCAFS site-500 mm annual rainfall- Min. Temp. 15.7°C- Max. Temp. 41.3°C- Main crops:- Millet- Beans- Leafy vegetables- Maize- Sorghum- Climate Change threats:Drought- Socio-economicconstraints:- Low level ofinfrastructure- Limited access tomarketFakara, Niger(x:2.687,y:13.517)Analogue of Kaffrine, Senegal: Fakara, Niger
  38. 38. 38 • 3/21/11Comparison of current conditionsCurrentconditionsKaffrine, SenegalFakara, Niger = Futurecondition of KaffrineZoneTransition zone from theSahelien towards the SudanSavannah zoneWithin the SahelAltitude 15 m 225 mAnnualrainfallaverage600 mm 500 mmMinimumTemperature14.8 °C 15.7 °CMaximumTemperature39.1 °C 41.3 °CMain cropsMilletMaizePeanutsSorghumSesameMilletBeansLeafy vegetablesMaizeSorghumLength ofGrowingperiod130 days 95 daysSoil type Deep sandy soil Sandy and clay sandy soilSoil FAOClassFerric Luvisols Luvic ArenosolsSocio-economicconstraintsHigh poverty levelLow access to capitalNo attractive marketLow level of infrastructureLimited access to market010203040500501001502002501 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Temperature(ºC)Precipitation(mm)MonthKaffrine, Senegal051015202530354045500204060801001201401601801 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12Temperature(ºC)Precipitation(mm)MonthFakara, Niger
  39. 39. 39 • 3/21/11Kaffrine,SenegalFakara,NigerMilletMaizePeanutsSorghumSesameMilletBeansLeafyvegetablesMaizeSorghumComparison of main crops
  40. 40. 40 • 3/21/11Agtrial database - ApplicationKontela, Mali is another potentialanalogue to Kaffrine, SenegalThe sorghum yield data in Kontela,Mali could help us to know the futuresorghum yield in Kaffrine, Senegal.Sorghum yield dataSorghumVarietyK (kg/ha)N(kg/ha)P (kg/ha)Lime(kg/ha)Manure (kg/ha)Grain yield(t/ha)CSM63E 0 0 0 0 0 0.68CSM63E 0 0 0 0 0 0.10CSM63E 60 0 30 0 0 0.55CSM63E 60 100 0 0 0 0.33CSM63E 0 100 30 0 0 0.38CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 1.40CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 0.54CSM63E 60 100 30 500 0 1.68CSM63E 60 100 30 0 10000 1.06CSM63E 60 100 30 0 0 0.08Yield data available in the Agtrialsdatabase:http://www.agtrials.org:85/
  41. 41. 41 • 3/21/11Millet Yield dataVariety name Grain Yield (t/ha)Nyamkombo 0.87Okashana-2 1.09PMV-2 0.78PMV-3 0.86SDMV89003 0.88SDMV89007 0.82SDMV90031 1.16SDMV91018 0.91SDMV92033 0.75SDMV92038 0.82SDMV95032 1.03SDMV95033 0.93SDMV95045 1.13SDMV96075 0.89SDMV97007 0.87SDMV97011 0.87TSPM91018 0.69SDMV89005 0.90SDMV92035 0.51SDMV92037 1.01SDMV95009 0.77SDMV95014 0.68SDMV95025 0.73ZPMV92005 0.50ZPMV94001 0.60Agtrial database - ApplicationSenegalHombolo, Tanzania is another potentialanalogue to Kaffrine, SenegalYield data available in the Agtrial database:http://www.agtrials.org:85/The MILLET yield data in Homboro, Tanzaniacould help us to know the future millet yieldin Kaffrine, Senegal.
  42. 42. 42 • 3/21/11stay in touchwww.ccafs.cgiar.orgsign up for science, policy and news e-bulletinsfollow us on twitter @cgiarclimate

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