APA climate change planning presentation

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APA climate change planning presentation given at afternoon session. Overview of Northeast Ohio CO2 emissions, transportation and building climate change actions.

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APA climate change planning presentation

  1. 1. Planning for Climate Change Brad Chase September 24, 2009 bchase@cmnh.org 1
  2. 2. 2
  3. 3. Cleveland Carbon Fund 3
  4. 4. 4
  5. 5. Climate Change Planning 5
  6. 6. Perspective Per capita CO2 emissions What is your footprint? change) (2003, tons - excludes land use Qa Am ean om C h – 1 m e .8 Ja nia Un Ca Un In Oh Au Eu d Ki Br Un Te pa di az n H n – lif ta in .8 les ro ng xa i ite 0.0 str i er te te io a– or a– n r il p s– ica nio 9.2 d ali d –4 – 1 1. 1 – Ar 1. St a– 3. 32 6. 24 1 at ab 4 –1 U – .5 1t 17 o es d .1 Em on .2 –1 ira sp 9. te s8 8 er 9 s– .5 p * er 25 so .0 n Climate Analysis Indicators Tool (CAIT) Version 5.0. (Washington DC: World Resources Institute, 2008) *MIT Tech Talk. Volume 52, Number 23, Wednesday April 16, 2008. 6
  7. 7. Carbon “budget” Roundtrip to Los Angeles Roundtrip to Hong Kong Roundtrip to Average Ohioan in 2003 London 24.1 tons 15,000 miles in a Prius 15,000 miles in a Civic 30% per capita reduction by 2030 15,000 miles in a Hummer 80% reduction by 2050 7
  8. 8. Northeast Ohio Footprint 8
  9. 9. U.S. mid-range abatement curve from Abatement Cost McKinsey – 2030 cost <$50/ton Commercial Residential Real 2005 dollars per ton CO2e Afforestation buildings – buildings – of cropland HVAC HVAC equipment equipment 90 Coal power plants– efficiency efficiency CCS rebuilds with EOR Industrial Residential Fuel economy process Coal mining – Active forest Solar CSP buildings – Distributed packages – Light improve- Methane mgmt management Shell solar PV 60 trucks ments retrofits Residential electronics Commercial Commercial Nuclear buildings – Residential buildings – new- Combined water Control build 30 heat and heaters Residential systems buildings – power Lighting 0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.2 Potential Onshore wind – Gigatons/year -30 Onshore wind – Industry – Low penetration CCS new Industry – High penetration builds on Combined carbon- heat and Biomass power – intensive -60 power Cofiring processes Cellulosic Manufacturing – biofuels Existing power HFCs Car hybridi- Coal power plants – CCS zation plant mgmt -90 Residential new builds with EOR conversion buildings – efficiency Onshore wind – Medium New shell improvements Coal-to-gas Commercial penetration improvements shift – dispatch of electronics Conservation -120 Winter existing plants tillage Commercial cover crops buildings – Coal power plants – CFL lighting Reforestation CCS rebuilds -230 -220 Commercial buildings – Commercial LED lighting buildings – Afforestation of Natural gas Coal power New shell pastureland and petroleum plants – CCS Fuel economy improvements systems new builds packages – Cars management 9 Source: McKinsey analysis
  10. 10. Ohio Progress? 10
  11. 11. Building Sector Transition 11
  12. 12. Building Sector How do we accomplish reductions? 2030 Residential 2030 Commercial Potential Potential Tons CO2 Tons CO2 Building Strategies CO2 CO2 Reduced Reduced Reductions Reductions Retrofit and renovate existing building 1 stock 20% 2,617,638 15% 1,819,002 Achieve aggressive energy reductions 2 in new buildings 10% 1,745,092 20% 2,425,336 Educate and change occupant energy 3 behaviors 15% 3,490,184 10% 1,221,668 Implement district-wide solutions and 4 efficient land use planning 5% 872,546 5% 606,334 Total 2030 CO2 Reductions 50% -8,725,461 50% -6,072,340 12
  13. 13. Buildings Scenarios 1. Retrofit and Renovate: New Construction: Agg and Change Oc District Wi 2. Energy Efficient Products 3. Educate 4. 1.1.1 Refrigerators 1.1.1 Air Conditioners Space Heating Water Heating Lighting 1.1.1 1.1.3 1.1.5 • Develop strategies for reducing electricity use and natural gas 17,450,922 tons CO2e use in residential sector 42% Natural Gas/Other • Natural gas emissions reduced 7,329,387 tons 50% by 2030, to 3,664,694 tons 58% Electricity • Electricity emissions reduced 10,121,535 tons 50% by 2030, to 5,060,767 tons • Energy Plan plays integral role in electricity reductions 13
  14. 14. Buildings Scenario 1.1 1. Retrofit and Renovate: Energy Efficient Products 2. New Construction: Agg 3. Educate 4. 1.1.1 Refrigerators 1.1.1 Air Conditioners Space Heating Water Heating Lighting 1.1.1 1.1.3 1.1.5 Residential: 2001 Electricity Consumption Device % CO2 Tons/yr Refrigerator 13.7% 1,386,624 Air-Conditioning 16.0% 1,619,415 Space Heating 10.1% 1,022,256 Water Heating 9.1% 921,042 Lighting 8.8% 890,678 TVs 2.9% 293,519 Furnace Fans 3.3% 334,004 Freezers 3.5% 354,247 Clothes Dryers 5.8% 587,038 Other 26.7% 2,702,399 99.9% 10,111,222 14
  15. 15. Buildings Scenario 1.1 1. Retrofit and Renovate: Energy Efficient Products 2. New Construction: Agg 3. Educate 4. 1.1.1 Refrigerators 1.1.1 Air Conditioners Space Heating Water Heating Lighting 1.1.1 1.1.3 1.1.5 • Eliminating 200,000 second refrigerators in 7 county region would result in 1.87% (189,320 tons) reduction in residential CO2 emissions. • Replacing 300,000 refrigerators older than 2001 would result in a 1.97% (198,787 tons) reduction in CO2 emissions. • Together, these two actions would eliminate almost 400,000 tons or 4% of the overall residential carbon footprint in Northeast Ohio. 15
  16. 16. Buildings Scenario 1.2 1. Retrofit and Renovate: Building Improvements 2. New Construction: Agg 3. Educate 4. 1.2.1 Improve Existing Building Stock 1.2.2 Improvement Incentives 1.2.3 Housing Units by County and Year Built Housing Units Year Built TOTAL 300,000 Built 3/2000 - 2004 50,295 Built 1995 to 3/2000 66,874 Built 1990 to 1994 55,680 Cuyahoga Geauga 250,000 Built 1980 to 1989 88,687 Lake Lorain Built 1970 to 1979 164,769 Medina Portage Built 1960 to 1969 183,805 200,000 Summit Built 1950 to 1959 229,345 Housing Units Built 1940 to 1949 131,718 Built 1939 or earlier 281,456 150,000 TOTAL 1,252,629 100,000 80% or 990,000 homes 50,000 in 7 county region are 0 30 + years old. Built Built Built Built Built Built Built Built Built 3/2000 1995 to 1990 to 1980 to 1970 to 1960 to 1950 to 1940 to 1939 or - 2004 3/2000 1994 1989 1979 1969 1959 1949 earlier 16
  17. 17. Buildings Scenario 2.1 1. Retrofit and Renovate: Energy Efficient Products 2. New Construction: Aggressive Energy Reductions 3. Educate and 2.1.1 Meet National Energy Challenges 2.1.2 LEED 2.1.3 Energy Star 2.1.4 Low Growth Scenario: Meet Architecture 2030 Targets - New Homes by Energy Reduction and Year • 10-15% reduction in 0% 10% 15% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Tons Reduced/yr Cumulative 2010 0 0 0 0 7,981 177 177 532 0 0 0 0 40,027 40,027 emissions possible 2011 0 0 0 0 6,208 887 887 266 177 177 177 89 46,452 86,479 2012 2013 0 0 0 0 5,321 1,153 887 887 177 177 177 89 49,417 135,896 by 2030, depending 0 0 0 0 3,547 887 1,330 1,774 887 177 177 89 57,941 193,837 2014 2015 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,774 0 887 0 1,330 0 3,991 0 443 177 7,094 1,419 177 177 89 177 64,736 89,691 258,573 348,264 on region’s new 2016 2017 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6,740 1,774 5,764 2,217 177 443 177 443 90,185 92,656 438,449 531,106 construction rate 2018 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3,547 4,434 443 443 95,745 626,850 2019 2020 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,774 5,853 0 7,538 621 709 621 621 98,957 101,551 725,807 827,358 • In low growth 2021 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7,094 887 887 102,540 929,898 2022 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 5,321 1,774 1,774 106,246 1,036,144 scenario, new home 2023 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2,217 4,434 2,217 111,187 1,147,331 2024 2025 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1,330 5,321 2,217 0 6,651 2,217 112,423 114,276 1,259,754 1,374,030 construction which 2026 2027 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 6,208 2,660 4,434 4,434 114,894 117,365 1,488,924 1,606,288 meets national 2028 2029 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 4,434 4,434 4,434 4,434 117,365 117,365 1,723,653 1,841,018 challenges would 2030 Totals 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 24,830 0 3,991 0 4,611 0 7,449 0 0 0 8,868 26,604 39,906 41,857 36,980 123,542 1,964,559 1,964,559 result in 11% 11% reduction in CO2 Energy Star Builders Architecture 2030 Architecture 2030 Challenge (2010 Goal) (2030 Goal) emissions from residential sector by 2030. 17
  18. 18. Buildings Scenario 2.1 1. Retrofit and Renovate: Energy Efficient Products 2. New Construction: Aggressive Energy Reductions 3. Educate and 2.1.1 Meet National Energy Challenges 2.1.2 LEED 2.1.3 Energy Star 2.1.4 • 10-15% reduction in emissions possible by 2030, 25%-35% reduction by 2050 • New home construction alone will not be enough • Retrofits and renewable energy will have to fill gap if region will meet 50% and 90% reduction targets 18
  19. 19. Buildings Scenario 2.1 1. Retrofit and Renovate: Energy Efficient Products 2. New Construction: Aggressive Energy Reductions 3. Educate and 2.1.1 Meet National Energy Challenges 2.1.2 LEED 2.1.3 Energy Star 2.1.4 HERS 2008 Energy Star Homes by State 19
  20. 20. Buildings Scenario 2.1 1. Retrofit and Renovate: Energy Efficient Products 2. New Construction: Aggressive Energy Reductions 3. Educate and 2.1.1 Meet National Energy Challenges 2.1.2 LEED 2.1.3 Energy Star 2.1.4 HERS Residential Energy Services Network (RESNET) HERS Index Reference Reference Home is assigned a HERS Home Score Index of 100, while a net zero energy home is assigned a HERS Index of 0 Reference 2006 International Energy Conservation Home Basis Code (IECC) Each 1% increase in energy efficiency Scale corresponds to a 1-point decrease in HERS Index Energy Use Heating, cooling, water heating, lighting, Considered appliances, and onsite power generation* ENERGY HERS Index of 85 in climate zones 1–5 STAR HERS Index of 80 in climate zones 6–8 Requirement Approved by the RESNET Board of Status Directors. To be implemented as of July 1, 2006. 20
  21. 21. Buildings Scenario 4.1 1. Retrofit and Renovate: Energy Efficient Products Use Planning 2. New Construction: Aggressive Energy Reductions 3. Educate and 4. Efficient Land 4.1 Zoning and Planning to Support Grid Development 4.1.2 LEED 4.2 Energy Star 4.3 Developed Land in Cuyahoga County (1948) • Population 1.4 million and rising • Grid development pattern 21
  22. 22. Buildings Scenario 4.1 1. Retrofit and Renovate: Energy Efficient Products Use Planning 2. New Construction: Aggressive Energy Reductions 3. Educate and 4. Efficient Land 4.1 Zoning and Planning to Support Grid Development 4.1.2 LEED 4.2 Energy Star 4.3 Developed Land in Cuyahoga County (2002) • Population 1.4 million and declining • Disconnected development pattern 22
  23. 23. Buildings Scenario 4.1 1. Retrofit and Renovate: Energy Efficient Products Use Planning 2. New Construction: Aggressive Energy Reductions 3. Educate and 4. Efficient Land 4.1 Zoning and Planning to Support Grid Development 4.1.2 LEED 4.2 Energy Star 4.3 • “Green” suburban home uses more energy on average than non-green urban home • Significantly less transportation energy required for urban homes on average 23
  24. 24. Transportation Sector Transition 24
  25. 25. Transportation Sector How do we accomplish reductions? 2030 2050 Potential Potential Tons CO2 Tons CO2 Transportation Strategies CO2 CO2 Reduced Reduced Reductions Reductions Reduce number of vehicles and need 1 to travel 10% 1,793,627 25% 4,484,068 2 Increase efficiency of vehicles 30% 5,380,882 50% 8,968,137 3 Reduce CO2 intensity of fuel sources 5% 896,814 10% 1,793,627 Align costs of externalities with end 4 users 5% 896,814 5% 896,814 Total CO2 Reductions 50% -8,968,137 90% -16,142,646 25
  26. 26. Transportation Scenario 1.2 1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 2. Increase Efficiency in Fu 3. Reduce CO2 4. Extern 1.1 Land Use1.2 Align Long Range Transportation Plans 1.3 Decrease 1.4 • NOACA and AMATS MPOs have adopted climate change language in LRTPs • ODOT 21st Century Priorities Task Force • Plans are largely done, challenge exists to set, track and implement meaningful metrics (VMT reduction, CO2 reduction, mode splits) • Complete Streets policies one “easy” solution to start with 26
  27. 27. Transportation Scenario 1.2 1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 2. Increase Efficiency in Fu 3. Reduce CO2 4. Extern 1.1 Land Use1.2 Align Long Range Transportation Plans 1.3 Decrease 1.4 Source: NOACA 27
  28. 28. Transportation Scenario 1.3 1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 2. Increase Efficiency in Fu 3. Reduce CO2 4. Extern 1.1 Land Use 1.2 Align Long Range Decrease Per Capita VMT by 30% 1.3 1.4 U.S. Population and Vehicle Miles Traveled, 1982-2006 • VMT rate of growth is slowing, and declined in 2008 • Many regional and state plans use VMT growth rate of 1 to 2% per year in planning vs. a flat or declining VMT Source: Bailey, et.al, “The Broader Connection between Public Transportation, Energy Conservation and Greenhouse Gas Reduction,” February 2008, www.apta.com/research/info/online/documents/land_ use.pdf 28
  29. 29. Transportation Scenario 1.3 1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 2. Increase Efficiency in Fu 3. Reduce CO2 4. Extern 1.1 Land Use 1.2 Align Long Range Decrease Per Capita VMT by 30% 1.3 1.4 2005 Units MPG Utlization Emissions Factors Gasonline Gasoline CO2 Short Tons Avg. ANNUAL VMT Vehicle Mix % # vehicles Consumption Emissions Factor Lbs/CO2 CO2 MPG Total (Gallons) (lbs/CO2 per Gal) (1=2000lbs) Full Size Auto 7.5% 201,726 17 2,200,292,362 129,428,962 20.71 2,680,344,384 1,340,172 Mid Size Auto 17.0% 457,246 20 4,987,329,354 249,366,468 20.71 5,164,130,180 2,582,065 Sub Compact/Compact 27.1% 728,904 25 7,950,389,735 318,015,589 20.71 6,585,784,841 3,292,892 Hybrid cars 0.5% 13,448 40 146,686,157 3,667,154 20.71 75,943,091 37,972 Biodiesel cars 0.5% 13,448 40 146,686,157 3,667,154 20.71 75,943,091 37,972 Plug-in hybrid 0.5% 13,448 52 146,686,157 2,820,888 20.71 58,417,762 29,209 Electric cars 0.0% 0 60 0 0 20.71 0 0 Light-duty trucks / SUV 46.5% 1,250,702 14 13,641,812,645 974,415,189 20.71 20,179,164,148 10,089,582 Motorcycle (2WV) 0.4% 10,759 25 117,348,926 4,693,957 20.71 97,211,850 48,606 TOTAL 100.0% 2,689,682 29,337,231,495 1,686,075,361 20.71 34,916,939,347 17,458,470 2030 Units MPG Utlization Emissions Factors Gasonline Gasoline CO2 Short Tons Avg. ANNUAL VMT Vehicle Mix % # vehicles Consumption Emissions Factor Lbs/CO2 CO2 MPG Total (Gallons) (lbs/CO2 per Gal) (1=2000lbs) Full Size Auto 7.5% 201,726 17 1,870,248,508 110,014,618 20.71 2,278,292,726 1,139,146 Mid Size Auto 17.0% 457,246 20 4,239,229,951 211,961,498 20.71 4,389,510,653 2,194,755 Sub Compact/Compact 27.1% 728,904 25 6,757,831,275 270,313,251 20.71 5,597,917,115 2,798,959 Hybrid cars 0.5% 13,448 40 124,683,234 3,117,081 20.71 64,551,627 32,276 Biodiesel cars 0.5% 13,448 40 124,683,234 3,117,081 20.71 64,551,627 32,276 Plug-in hybrid 0.5% 13,448 52 124,683,234 2,397,754 20.71 49,655,098 24,828 Electric cars 0.0% 0 60 0 0 20.71 0 0 Light-duty trucks / SUV 46.5% 1,250,702 14 11,595,540,748 828,252,911 20.71 17,152,289,526 8,576,145 Motorcycle (2WV) 0.4% 10,759 25 99,746,587 3,989,863 20.71 82,630,073 41,315 TOTAL 100.0% 2,689,682 24,936,646,771 1,433,164,057 20.71 29,679,398,445 14,839,699 15.00% 29
  30. 30. Transportation Scenario 1.3 1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 2. Increase Efficiency in Fu 3. Reduce CO2 4. Extern 1.1 Land Use 1.2 Align Long Range Decrease Per Capita VMT by 30% 1.3 1.4 30
  31. 31. Transportation Scenario 1.4 1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 2. Increase Efficiency in Fu 3. Reduce CO2 4. Extern 1.1 Land1.3 Decrease PerAccess,VMT by 30%and Efficiency of Public Transit 1.2 Align1.4 Improve Capita Availability Use Long Range 1.5 • Transit is more efficient mode in most situations • Won’t work for everyone, but small percentage increases in ridership and trip share have significant impacts on CO2 emissions, congestion 31
  32. 32. Transportation Scenario 1.6 1. Reduce Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 2. Increase Efficiency in Fu 3. Reduce CO2 4. Extern 1.1 Land1.3 Decrease Per Capita VMT by 30% to Bikes, Walking, Transit 1.2 Align1.4 1.5 1.6 Increase Mode Shift Use Long Range • Single Occupancy Vehicle travel is increasing • Public transit and carpooling % decreasing 32
  33. 33. Transportation Scenario 2.1 1. Reduce2. Increase Efficiency of Remaining Vehicles Number of Vehicles and Need to Travel 3. Reduce CO2 Inten 2.1 National Efficiency Standards 2.2 Smaller Vehicles 2.3 Hybrids 2005 Units MPG Utlization Emissions Factors Gasonline Gasoline CO2 Short Tons Avg. ANNUAL VMT Vehicle Mix % # vehicles Consumption Emissions Factor Lbs/CO2 CO2 MPG Total (Gallons) (lbs/CO2 per Gal) (1=2000lbs) Full Size Auto 7.5% 201,726 17 2,200,292,362 129,428,962 20.71 2,680,344,384 1,340,172 Mid Size Auto 17.0% 457,246 20 4,987,329,354 249,366,468 20.71 5,164,130,180 2,582,065 Sub Compact/Compact 27.1% 728,904 25 7,950,389,735 318,015,589 20.71 6,585,784,841 3,292,892 Hybrid cars 0.5% 13,448 40 146,686,157 3,667,154 20.71 75,943,091 37,972 Biodiesel cars 0.5% 13,448 40 146,686,157 3,667,154 20.71 75,943,091 37,972 Plug-in hybrid 0.5% 13,448 52 146,686,157 2,820,888 20.71 58,417,762 29,209 Electric cars 0.0% 0 60 0 0 20.71 0 0 Light-duty trucks / SUV 46.5% 1,250,702 14 13,641,812,645 974,415,189 20.71 20,179,164,148 10,089,582 Motorcycle (2WV) 0.4% 10,759 25 117,348,926 4,693,957 20.71 97,211,850 48,606 TOTAL 100.0% 2,689,682 29,337,231,495 1,686,075,361 20.71 34,916,939,347 17,458,470 2030 Units MPG Utlization Emissions Factors Gasonline Gasoline CO2 Short Tons Avg. ANNUAL VMT Vehicle Mix % # vehicles Consumption Emissions Factor Lbs/CO2 CO2 MPG Total (Gallons) (lbs/CO2 per Gal) (1=2000lbs) Full Size Auto 7.5% 201,726 25 2,200,292,362 88,011,694 20.71 1,822,634,181 911,317 Mid Size Auto 17.0% 457,246 28 4,987,329,354 178,118,906 20.71 3,688,664,414 1,844,332 Sub Compact/Compact 27.1% 728,904 35 7,950,389,735 227,153,992 20.71 4,704,132,029 2,352,066 Hybrid cars 0.5% 13,448 45 146,686,157 3,259,692 20.71 67,504,970 33,752 Biodiesel cars 0.5% 13,448 45 146,686,157 3,259,692 20.71 67,504,970 33,752 Plug-in hybrid 0.5% 13,448 52 146,686,157 2,820,888 20.71 58,417,762 29,209 Electric cars 0.0% 0 60 0 0 20.71 0 0 Light-duty trucks / SUV 46.5% 1,250,702 23 13,641,812,645 593,122,289 20.71 12,282,969,481 6,141,485 Motorcycle (2WV) 0.4% 10,759 25 117,348,926 4,693,957 20.71 97,211,850 48,606 TOTAL 100.0% 2,689,682 29,337,231,495 1,100,441,111 20.71 22,789,039,658 11,394,520 34.73% 33

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