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Mission 2020: Roadmap for rapid decarbonisation

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Side event presentation at UNFCCC COP23 in Bonn. Panel: Christiana Figueres, Johan Rockström, Kevin Anderson, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber

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Mission 2020: Roadmap for rapid decarbonisation

  1. 1. Johan Rockström Stockholm Resilience Centre 14 November, COP23 Roadmap for rapid decarbonisation Translating the Paris Agreement in to action
  2. 2. Translating the Paris Agreement into action Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
  3. 3. Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
  4. 4. Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
  5. 5. Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
  6. 6. Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
  7. 7. Rockström, Gaffney, Rogelj, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
  8. 8. Halving emissions every decade is consistent with Paris Agreement
  9. 9. Pink: medium 2 °C scenarios—limiting warming during the twenty-first century to below 2 °C with 50–66% chance; orange: likely 2 °C scenarios—limiting warming during the twenty-first century to below 2 °C with >66% chance; blue: 1.5 °C scenarios—limiting warming in 2100 to below 1.5 °C with >50% chance. Emissions profiles consistent with 1.5C (dark blue) 2C (orange and pink) Rogelj et al. NatureCC 2015 Three years to safeguard our climate Figueres et al Nature Climate Change 2017
  10. 10. 8 37 billion tonnes In 2017, global carbon dioxide emissions from fossil fuels and industry will reach around 37bn tonnes of carbon dioxide. Total emissions from all sources: approx 41GtCO2 Le Quéré et al ESSDD Global Carbon Budget 2017 2% growth
  11. 11. The land and ocean absorb around half the emissions Le Quéré et al ESSDD Global Carbon Budget 20 8
  12. 12. … but atmospheric concentrations continue to rise 8
  13. 13. 8 Proposing Decadal Pathways. Globally, halving emissions every decade is consistent with the Paris Agreement goal to hold rise to “well below 2°C”. Rockström, J., Gaffney, O., Rogelj, J., Meinshausen, M., Nakicenovic, N., Schellnhuber, H.J., 2017. “A roadmap for rapid decarbonization.” Science (80-. ), 355, 1269–1271. Red line: Carbon budget following halving circa: 550GtCO2 to 2060. Grey area: Carbon budget 750GtCO2 to 2060.
  14. 14. We are already on the right trajectory Renewables: Share of primary energy: doubling every 5-6 years Rockström, Gaffney, Joeri, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
  15. 15. We are already on the right trajectory Renewables: Share of primary energy If doubling pace continues, primary energy will be 100% renewable before 2050 Rockström, Gaffney, Joeri, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
  16. 16. Carbon Law – halve emissions every decade
  17. 17. Carbon Law – halve emissions every decade
  18. 18. Decadal roadmap Rockström, Gaffney, Joeri, Meinshausen, Nakicenovic, Schellnhuber. Science 24 March 2017
  19. 19. J o h a n Ro c k s t rö m Stockholm Resilience Centre 14 November, COP23 Roadmap for rapid decarbonisation Translating theParisAgreementintoaction

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