3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?


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Master's students use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) forthcoming book (Origins of New Industries) to analyze the technical and economic feasibility of 3D Holography. Improvements in lasers and holographic media are gradually making this more feasible. See my other slides for details on concepts, methodology, and other new industries..

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3D Holography: When Might it become Economically Feasible?

  1. 1. HOLOGRAPHY Chew Guang Wei HT093271W Ho Seow Yan HT093116E Lim Su Ru HT093278B Ong Lip Sin HT093131U Wee Chong Liang Justin HT093290BMT5009
  2. 2. Content2 • Introduction • Evolution of Displays • Value Proposition • Holographic System Setup • Technology & Cost of Holographic System • Limitations of Holographic System • Components of Holographic System • F t Future Opportunities O t iti • Entrepreneurial Opportunities
  3. 3. Holography g p y3
  4. 4. Timeline of Holography g p y4 1960:Pulsed ruby laser y was developed 1962:White light reflection hologram 2010: Development of moving 3D holograms 2009: Interactive holographic g p displays developed 1983:Mastercard first credit g card to use holograms 1947: Dennis Gabor developed the theory of holography
  5. 5. Evolution of Displays p y 5 1940 1964 1972 1980 1997 2004 2010 Plasma Display 3D movies LCD enters invented enter market market Next generation: 3D Holographic Display Cathode Ray Liquid Crystal Plasma enters 3D TV enters Tube (CRT) Display (LCD) market market enters market invented Type Advantages Disadvantages High Definition High resolution 2D images com/ 3D Display High resolution Narrow viewing angles dmarkettrends.c Stereoscopic Require viewing glasses Not true 3D imagery 3D Holographic “Life-like” images Life like Require large amount ofhttp://www.3d Display Volumetric 3D display processing Interactivity Constraint by size of holographic material
  6. 6. Value Proposition p6 1. . High Definition: g e o : Images projected are full coloured, high resolution and life-like 2. Ease of customization: E f t i ti Ability to project hologram anywhere 3. 3 Ease of delivery and transmission: Real time transmission to multiple locations 4. 4 Volumetric View: 360 degree view with different perspectives 5. Interactivity: Ability to interact directly with image
  7. 7. Holographic System Setup g p y p7 Satellite Object 3D Hologram Light Transmission Source Medium Holographic Camera Media System Computer System Computer System
  8. 8. Technology for Holographic System gy g p y8 Keyy Prototype yp Technology expected by gy p y Sub-System 2016 Light Source 200mW 500mW Diode-Pumped Diode Pumped Solid Diode-Pumped Diode Pumped Solid State (DPSS) Pulsed Laser State (DPSS) Pulsed Laser Holographic 17” At least 42” Media Photorefractive Polymer Advanced Photorefractive Polymer 2-second refresh rate 6 to 24 fps refresh rate Transmission 100Mbps Up to 40Gbps Media Fiber Optics Computer System 4-core 16-core and beyond
  9. 9. Projected Cost of Holographic System j g p y9 42" Holographic System S stem 200,000 Estimated Cost Breakdown Computer  System 150,000 Holographic  Media $) Cost ($ Light Source Light Source 100,000 Transmission 50,000 0 2011 2016 2021 2030 Year
  10. 10. Limitations of Holographic System g p y10  Laser System  Performance trade off with cost and safety  Microprocessor  Large amount of processing required g p g q  Multiple complex algorithms and calculations  Photorefractive Polymer  Size of hologram dependent on size of material  Refresh rate
  11. 11. Photorefractive Polymer11 Fiber Optics
  12. 12. Light Source: Evolution g 12 Mercury Solid-state Semiconductor arc lamp laser l laser di d l diodes (1948) (1960s) (1980s) Dr. Theodore [1] Maiman studies a ruby crystal in the shape of a cube in a laser.[1] http://www.britannica.com/EBchecked/topic/269607/holography/92904/Pulsed-laser-holography
  13. 13. Laser System: Performance y 13 1) The lower the laser power the longer the exposure time power,  A second to few minutes for CW lasers vs. “nanoseconds” for Pulsed lasers 2) Laser power requirement i) Increases with Size of holograms  Typical T i l power l l H N l levels: HeNe lasers: 1 20 W Di d lasers: 5-50mW, 1-20mW, Diode l 5 50 W DPSS lasers: 20-200mW, Ar lasers with etalon: 100-500mW  For large holograms, on the order of 10-sq m, laser powers on the order of 1 W i preferred if cost i not an issue [1]  solid-state or A i gas f 1-W is f d t is t i lid t t Ar ion lasers as candidates ii) Increases with Distance of hologram set-up  Min. power output for laser light shows: ~400mW[1] http://www.loreti.it/chaptersPDF/Ch11_Non-Laser_Illum.pdf[3] h // i ll i /P d /D /CVIMG H l h Whi df
  14. 14. Laser System: Performance vs. Cost y 14 3) Higher laser power systems translate to higher costs (several thousand to tens of thousand dollars) [1] Laser System Costing 35000 CW Pulsed 30000 25000 20000 Cost ($) 15000 10000 5000 0 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 Power (mW) * Modulator & optic system costs not included [1][1] Diode pumped SSL Costs: http://www.amazing1.com, 2011
  15. 15. Laser System: Cost Projection y j 15 Projected Laser Cost Trend j  Generally 80,000.00 decreasing trend 70,000.00 200 mW 500 mW for the past five 1000 mW W 60,000.00 years (~15%) 1500 mW 50,000.00  Laser prices Cost ($) projected to 40,000.00 continue 30,000.00 dropping in pp g 20,000.00 20 000 00 similar fashion 10,000.00 in the next 5 years 0.00 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 YearSource: OptoIQ, 2008
  16. 16. Holographic Media g p 16 Comparison in Key Performance Metrics in Holographic Recording Materials [1,2] M t i l [1 2] 120% 30,000  Recording medium 100% 25,000 should have High diffraction Diffraction Efficiency (%) ) 1) Resolution Limi (um) 80% 20,000 efficiency 60% 15,000 2) Wide resolution range g it 40% 10,000 Max. Resolution limit [um] Max. Resolution limit [mm−1] 20% 5,000 Min. Resolution limit [um] Min. Resolution limit [mm−1] Max. efficiency Effi i Max. Diff M Diffraction Efficiency i 0% 0 Dichromated gelatin Photopolymers Elastomers Photographic emulsions Photographic emulsions Photothermoplastics Photochromics otorefractives Photoresists (Phase bleached) mplitude) P Pho e, P (Am[1] Lecture Holography and optical phase conjugation held at ETH Zürich by Prof. G. Montemezzani in 2002[2] Ablation of nanoparticles for holographic recordings in elastomers: http://pubs.acs.org/doi/full/10.1021/la102693m
  17. 17. Holographic Media g p17 1) Silver Halide Emulsion  High exposure sensitivity over a wide range of spectral regions  High resolving power  Suitable for transmission/reflection holograms (amplitude and phase type) / g ( p p yp ) 2) 5) Dichromated Gelatin Material Photorefractive polymer [1]   Record multicolour reflection holograms the 3D telepresence Used for 3D dynamic holograms, enables   Suitable f veryi highl efficiency and low noise holograms No d for N need for special glasses l 3) Photorefractive Crystals seconds; quasi real-time Refreshes images every 2  Good for large-area and holography Material use for real-time dynamically updatable holographic recording media  Recyclable! Photothermoplastics can also b recycled several h d d times and are l bl h h l l be l d l hundred d most suitable for holographic interferometry 4) Photoresist Material  Suitable for producing surface relief holograms  Most sensitive to ultraviolet/blue light only.[1] P.-A. Blanche et al, Holographic three-dimensional telepresence using large-area photorefractive polymer, Nature Volume: 468, Pages: 80–83, 04 November 2010, DOI 10.1038/nature09521
  18. 18. Photorefractive Polymer: Performance y 18 1) Refresh Rate  University of Arizona (UA) took 2 s to write & erase a full-colour dynamic holographic image in 2010 vs. 4 mins in 2008 [1,2]  marked improvement of ~100x in 2 years!  Quoting UA lead author of the study Blanche, “In two years we improved the speed by a factor of 100. If we can improve the speed by the same factor, we will be over video rate. It will be done.” [2]  Next step: 6 fps (~0.2s); to progress towards a refresh rate of 24-30 fps 2) ) Display Size p y  17” (current largest)  Have to scale up the display size to 85” for outdoor billboard advertising & 6–8 ft ( (life-size) for telepresencing to be truly p ) p g y possible[1] http://news.inventhelp.com/Articles/Electronics/Inventions/three-dimensional-dynamic-holography-12521.aspx[2] http://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2010/11/holographic-video/
  19. 19. Photorefractive Polymer: Cost Projection y j 19 Sonys Display Cost based o j eDisplay C o s& o f P h o t o rSonys t i v e P o l y mper Inch based on P r on c t e d Size t e f r a c Display Cost e r [1-3] [1-3] Technology (as of Dec 2010) b a s e d o n S260r e e n S iTechnology (as of Dec 2010) c Display z e 5000 D y n a m ic p h o t o r e f r a c t i v e p o l y m e r ( P r o je c t e d ) XEL-1 OLED TV 0 0 350 D y n a m ic p h o t o p o l y m e r ( E x t r a p o 240 f r o m Z e b r a I m a g in g ) la te XEL-1 OLED TV Bravia XBR10 Series LED 3D TV S t a t ic p h o t o p o ly m e r ( Z e b r a I m a g i n g ) Bravia XBR10 Series LED 3D TV 4500 Bravia XBR9 Series LCD TV 220 Bravia XBR9 Series LCD TV 30000 200 4000 nch) 25000 180 Cost/inch ($/in 3500 160 Cost ($) 20000 Cost ($) 140 3000 120 15000 2500 100 10000 80 2000 60 1500 5000 40 10 20 030 40 50 60 10 20 30 40 50 60 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Display Size (inches) Display Size (inches) S c r e e n S iz e ( in c h e s )  Photorefractive polymer is projected to cost ~4x more than 4x static photopolymer  $1500 for 12”x18” & $3500 & 2 ft by 3 ft static 3D holograms by Zebra Imaging [4] I i[1] Sony XEL-1 OLED TV pricing: http://reviews.cnet.com/oled/sony-xel-1-oled/4505-13948_7-32815284.html[2] Sony Bravia XBR10 Series LED 3D TV pricing: http://www.best-led-tv.net/46%E2%80%B3-sony-bravia-xbr10.html[3] Sony Bravia XBR9 Series LCD TV pricing: http://www.practical-home-theater-guide.com/sony-lcd-tv-1.html[4] Zebra Imaging Print Cost: http://www.3d-display-info.com/zebra-imaging-prints-large-3d-holograms
  20. 20. Transmission Media 20 Transmission rate projected to increase by about tenfold over a decade Has the potential to go up to 40 or even 160 Gbps  Current transmission capacity of fibre  Capable of supporting a very large is in the region of ~ 2.5 to10 Gbps size hologram (~500”)  Capable of supporting ahttp://www.telebyteusa.com/foprimer/foch1.htm prototype hologram (17”)http://www.rp-photonics.com/optical_fiber_communications.htmlhttp://www.belden.com/pdfs/Techpprs/10_Gbps_LAN_Segment_WP.pdf
  21. 21. Transmission Media: Cost Projection 21 Relative cost trends comparing 10 Gbps vs 4Gbps vs.  Transmission cost projected to drop by ~75% in a decade  By 2016, 10Gbps is expected to cost ~$225 $225www.corning.com/docs/opticalfiber/CM00000004.pdf
  22. 22. Microprocessor p Currently, a processor is capable of supporting up to 42” hologram 42 Estimated that 23 processors (16-core) in 2016 will be able to support a large billboard size hologram Intel’s E7 Xeon 10-core
  23. 23. Microprocessor: Cost Projection p j 23 Average transistor price expected to be 10-10 i 2016 b 10 in  Estimated cost trend for microprocessor  Currently, 6-core processor with 109 transistors costs ~$300  In 2016, 16-core processor with ~ 5*1010 transistors is expected to cost ~$300http://www.singularity.com/charts/page62.htmlhttp://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transistor_count
  25. 25. Future Opportunities pp25  Advertising  Gaming  Education  Training Richard Branson Hologram – Virgin Digital Launch  Communication  Medical  Forensic Science
  26. 26. Entrepreneurial Opportunities p pp26  Lasers or alternative light sources  Optics (e.g. diffusers, filters, diffraction gratings)  Software developer p (e.g. algorithms)  Photorefractive materials  Silicon photonics
  27. 27. Conclusion27  With a trend of moving towards 3D and virtual reality, Holographic System will dominate the display, advertising and entertainment industries p y, g  This is largely attributed to:  Lowering of cost of key components  Advancement in holographic technology  Advancement in technologies of key components
  28. 28. THANK YOU (Q&A)