Eye tracking and its economic feasibility


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These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to analyze how the economic feasibility of eye tracking technology is becoming better through improvements in infrared LEDs, micro-projectors, image sensors, and microprocessors. The capability to track an eye’s movement can help us better identify tired drivers and equipment operators, understand the eye movements of retail shoppers, and develop better human-computer interfaces. Tired drivers and machine operators lead to accidents and these accidents lead to loss of human life and equipment damage. Retailers would like to better understand the eye movements of their customers in order to better design retail stores. Eye trackers would enable one type of human-computer interface, Google Glasses, to understand the information that users are viewing and thus what they want to access
Eye tracking is done with a combination of infrared LEDs, micro-projectors, image sensors, and microprocessors. All of these components are experiencing rapid improvements in cost and performance as feature sizes are made smaller and the number of transistors are increased. Improvements in image sensors have led to higher accuracy and precision where precision refers to consistency. Much of these improvements have come from higher pixel densities and sampling frequencies of the image sensors; the latter enables tracking even when there are head movements.
These improvements have also led to lower costs and cost reductions continue to occur. The cost of high-end eye tracking systems have dropped from about 30,000 USD in 2000 to 18,000 in 2010 and 5,000 in 2013. Further reductions will occur as Moore’s Law continues and as higher volumes enable lower margins.

Published in: Business, Technology

Eye tracking and its economic feasibility

  1. 1. MT5009 – Analyzing Hi-Tech Opportunities Opportunities in Eye-Tracking For information on other new technologies that are becoming economically feasible, see http://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/presentations
  2. 2. Group Introduction • Adrianus Mradipta A0033067 • Desmond Wong A0082079 • Koh Kian Hong A0082082 • Ong Fu Lin A0098508 • Peh Tiong Seng A0098563
  3. 3. Before we begin… Reebok Advertisement
  4. 4. Before we begin… Note how men didn’t notice the shoes AT ALL!!
  5. 5. • Introduction – Brief History – Underlying Technology • Technology Improvements – What was holding the technology back? – How has it improved? – Will it improve further? • Future Opportunities Content
  6. 6. • What is eye tracking? – Technique of measuring and monitoring the point of gaze (where someone is looking) • Identifies: – first fixations – fixation order – gaze time Introduction
  7. 7. Brief History • 1870s - Scientific Study of Eye Movement Began • 1900s - Photography Improvement Non-Invasive Techniques • 1940s - Head-Mounted Eye Trackers First Developed • 1970s - High Speed Data Processing & Cognitive Science • 1980s - Human Computer Interface Developed • 1990s - Commercial Applications Made Practical
  8. 8. Underlying Technology • Current eye-tracking technology uses: corneal reflection technology – Infrared diodes generate reflection from the cornea – Reflections are collected by infrared image sensors (cameras) – Image analysis + mathematical algorithms determine where the user is looking
  9. 9. Underlying Technology Current eye-tracking technology uses: corneal reflection technology
  10. 10. Underlying Technology • Why infrared is used? – To distinguish pupil shape from the iris. – Pupils become clear in infrared vision Normal Vision Infrared Vision How corneal reflection determines the line of sight
  11. 11. Infrared capable camera Infrared LED Mechanical Housing Computer (processing power) Components of the modern eye tracking system: Underlying Technology
  12. 12. Labeled as “promising” for the past 50 years • “For a long time now there has been a great need for a means of recording where people are looking while they work at particular tasks. A whole series of unsolved problems awaits such a technique” (Mackworth & Thomas, 1962, p.713). • “...[T]he eyetracking system has a promising future in usability engineering” (Benel, Ottens & Horst, 1991, p.465). • “...[A]ggregating, analyzing, and visualizing eye tracking data in conjunction with other interaction data holds considerable promise as a powerful tool for designers and experimenters in evaluating interfaces” (Crowe & Narayanan, 2000, p.35). • “Eye-movement analysis does appear to be a promising new tool for evaluating visually administered questionnaires” (Redline & Lankford, 2001). • “Another promising area is the use of eye-tracking techniques to support interface and product design. Continual improvements in ... eye-tracking systems ... have increased the usefulness of this technique for studying a variety of interface issues” (Merwin, 2002, p.39). Labeled as promising for 40 years Good news or bad news? Technology Improvement
  13. 13. • Both good news & bad news! – Good news: it must be really promising, else it would have been set aside – Bad news: something is holding it back! Technology Improvement What had been holding the technology back? How far has the technology gone? Will technology improvements drive new applications & opportunities?
  14. 14. • What was holding the technology back? – Technical Difficulties • Ease of use • Tolerance to variations • Constrained head movements • Not portable – Labor-Intensive Data Extraction • Often requires labor-intensive frame-by-frame decoding of videotape – Difficulties in Data Interpretation • Making sense out of the data Technology Improvement
  15. 15. • Introduction – Brief History – Underlying Technology • Technology Improvements – What was holding the technology back? – How has it improved? – Will it improve further? • Future Opportunities Outline
  16. 16. • How has eye tracking improved? Technology Improvement
  17. 17. • Accuracy & Precision – The difference: Technology Improvement
  18. 18. • Accuracy & Precision – Improved over the years Technology Improvement Source: Tobii Accuracy and Precision Test Reports One degree corresponds to half an inch (1.2 cm) on a computer monitor viewed at a distance of 27 inches (68.6 cm)
  19. 19. Note: Measurements were done at a 25 Degree Gaze Angle where one degree corresponds to half an inch (1.2 cm) on a computer monitor viewed at a distance of 27 inches (68.6 cm)
  20. 20. • Accuracy & Precision – How has it been improved? • Increasing sampling rate Modern eye trackers: 25-2000 Hz http://www.healio.com/ophthalmology/journals/JRS/%7BB9C9AF4C-7BEC-47D2-9E2F-36D59FBD2447%7D/One-Kilohertz-Eye-Tracker-and- Active-Intraoperative-Torsion-Detection-in-the-NIDEK-CXIII-and-Quest-Excimer-Lasers http://www.journalofoptometry.org/en/analysis-of-the-effects-of/articulo/90102629/ Technology Improvement Increasing sampling rate reduces error
  21. 21. • Tolerance to head movement: – Trade-off between precision/accuracy & tolerance for head movement – Head movement will shift distance to eye-tracker from the optimal point http://www.docstoc.com/docs/93864026/Specification-of-Gaze-Precision-and-Gaze-Accuracy Technology Improvement Optimum distance Optimum distance Optimum distanceAt 50 cm Optimum distanceAt 50 cm
  22. 22. • Tolerance to head movement: – How this has been improved while keeping accuracy/precision constant? • Higher resolution cameras – By increasing megapixels • Use multiple cameras Technology Improvement T. Suzuki, “Challenges of Image-Sensor Development”, ISSCC, 2010
  23. 23. 2013 $5,000 2000s $30,000 2010 $18,000 http://www.economist.com/news/technology-quarterly/21567195- computer-interfaces-ability-determine-location-persons-gaze Technology Improvement • Cost Reductions due to decrease in cost of components, which will be discussed later
  24. 24. More Noise & point-of-gaze does not move smoothly Lower Cost System Medium Cost System High Cost System Accuracy Cost Hundreds Thousands Tens of thousands Technology Improvement • Accuracy vs Cost
  25. 25. The image shows the left (yellow) and right (green) pupil diameter for all systems. Lower and Medium cost system showing instability in the tracking of the pupil. Hundreds Thousands Tens of thousands Performance Cost Technology Improvement • Performance vs Cost Noise
  26. 26. • Improvements in various aspects of the eye tracker: – Have allowed improvements in size & intrusiveness Raymond Dodge’s Photochronograph 1950s Today’s eye trackers can be non-intrusive & relatively small Technology Improvement 21st Century1871 – 1942 WARNING! AUDIENCE ATTENTIVENESS LOW
  27. 27. What do you see?
  28. 28. How many noticed the gorilla at the right hand side? What do you see?
  29. 29. • Will Performance & Cost continue to improve? Technology Improvement
  30. 30. • Interest in the field: – increase in the number of academic papers related to the field http://imotionsglobal.com/blog/exponential-growth-in-academic-eye-tracking-papers-over-the-last-40-years/ Technology Improvement
  31. 31. Technology Improvement Increasing number of Eye Tracking Products
  32. 32. Technology Improvement Infrared capable camera Infrared LED Mechanical Housing Computer (processing power) • Improvement in Components Improvement trends in components in the field gives us confidence that this technology will continue to improve
  33. 33. Technology Improvement • Improvement in Cameras Reducing pixel-size (green square) miniaturized cameras without reducing quality T. Suzuki, “Challenges of Image-Sensor Development”, ISSCC, 2010
  34. 34. Technology Improvement • Improvement in Cameras T. Suzuki, “Challenges of Image-Sensor Development”, ISSCC, 2010 Resolution increases, the price of a corresponding camera comes down more and more quickly over time
  35. 35. Technology Improvement • Improvement in Computers (Processing Power) http://homepages.cwi.nl/~steven/vandf/2012-11-teneuro.html Improvement in integrated circuits (Moore’s Law) enhances processing power to decode the raw data obtained from eye tracking. Potential improvement gives confidence that eye-tracking will continue to improve
  36. 36. Technology Improvement • Improvement in Computers (Processing Power) Koomey, Jonathan G., Stephen Berard, Marla Sanchez, and Henry Wong. Implications of Historical Trends in The Electrical Efficiency of Computing. [Online] Available from: http://doi.ieeecomputersociety.org/10.1109/MAHC.2010.28 As devices shrink in size, energy consumption can be made more efficient. Allow miniaturization of eye tracking and computing devices to support it
  37. 37. Technology Improvement $1000 $4000 Business Cost + R&D Cost Hardware Cost Kumar, M. Reducing the Cost of Eye Tracking Systems, Stanford Tech Report CSTR 2006-08, April 2006 Typical eye-tracker cost: $5000 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 10, 000s Units 100, 000s Units Total Cost USD$ Hardware Cost Business Cost + R&D Cost
  38. 38. Technology Improvement Confidence that eye-tracking system will improve A killer application is required to propel this technology!
  39. 39. Future Applications
  40. 40. Future in Retail
  41. 41. Future in Retail
  42. 42. Future in Retail Eye Tracking Technology  Tracks customer interest through the eyes  Interactive displays that projects visual information through Augmented Reality
  43. 43. Opportunities • Retail Shops – Better customer experience leads to better sales • Marketing Consultancy Companies – Provides solution for retailers to connect with shoppers – Eye Tracking collects unique information of shoppers • Point of display heat maps • Items of interest to shoppers Future in Retail
  44. 44. Opportunities • Software – Provides customization service for retail business – Offers processing software to analyze collected data Future in Retail
  45. 45. ΩΩFuture in Machines Danger of Drivers/ Machine Operators • Fatigue • Drowsiness • Inattentive
  46. 46. Severe consequence from accidents • Health, Safety and Environment • Insurance Costs • Operation downtime Future in Machines Offshore Drilling Mining Machines Monitor Fatigue and Attention Level
  47. 47. Future in Machines Training Centers • Eye Tracking to monitor and correct  Line of sight  Visual angle
  48. 48. Opportunities Mining and Drilling Companies • Safer work environment • Lead to less operation downtime Training Centers • Measurement of competency • Training programs for effective learning Machineries/Automobile Manufacturers • Provide customized eye trackers for new machineries or vehicles ΩΩFuture in Machines
  49. 49. ΩΩFuture in the Military The traditional way we aim weapons has always been about Manually adjusting the weapons to our eyes Applications:
  50. 50. ΩΩFuture in the Military Applications: Soldier of the future is about automatically adjusting the weapons to the line of sight
  51. 51. ΩΩFuture in the Military Opportunities: Weapon Manufacturers • New weapon with automatic aiming can be developed • Maintenance Services Eye Trackers Manufacturers • High specification eye tracker for military use – Accurate and precise aim – Suitable for rugged condition Software and System Providers • Connect eye tracker to weapons • Seamless connection between eye tracker and weapons
  52. 52. ΩΩFuture in HCI Simple interaction with Google Glass through VOICE
  53. 53. In the future, users will be able to retrieve information from the Glasses. If life is simple, that’s Great. Future in HCI
  54. 54. But often, Life is a little more complicated. There will be an Information Overload. How do we filter the Information that are meaningful to us? Future in HCI
  55. 55. ΩΩFuture in HCI Eye Tracking Technology  Identifies objects of interest by tracking the eyes
  56. 56. ΩΩ Eye Tracking Technology  Identifies objects of interest by tracking the eyes  Information will be presented to the user triggered by eye gaze Future in HCI
  57. 57. ΩΩ Eye Tracking Technology  Combination with other Interaction interfaces is possible Voice Interaction Sixth Sense Future in HCI
  58. 58. ΩΩFuture in HCI Opportunities: Components Manufacturers • Light and wearable • Miniaturization of Eye Tracker Augmented Reality Providers • Opportunity for user interaction with Augmented Reality • Eg. Google Glass HCI Providers • More holistic interaction interface • Eg. Integration with Microsoft Kinect and Leap motion control
  59. 59. ΩΩConclusions • Technology improvement across components • Reduction in Cost through Increasing technological efficiencies & Greater adoption New Applications Retail Machines Military HCI Opportunities Component Manufacturers Augmented Reality Providers HCI Providers Weapon ManufacturersEye Tracker Manufacturers Software Providers Hardware Integrators Consultancy Training Centers Inspection and Maintenance Retailers
  60. 60. Thank you!