How Might Technological Change be   Creating New Opportunities inEnergy and Transportation Systems?      9th Session of MT...
Objectives• What has and is driving improvements in cost and  performance of energy & transportation systems?• Can we use ...
This is the Ninth Session in MT5009Session Technology1      Objectives and overview of course2      Four methods of achiev...
Outline for Tonight• Engines  – Efficiency of engines  – Jet engines  – Benefits from increasing the scale of these engine...
Technology Paradigms for EnginesType of        Basic Operation                  Basic Methods ofEngine                    ...
Efficiency of Engines• Efficiency of heat engine = 1 – Tout/Tin• Increased temperatures often require   – better materials...
Figure 2.2 Improvements in Maximum Efficiency of Engines and Turbines                                                     ...
Progress of energy transportation (Watts per kg)Source: Koh and Magee, Technology Forecasting and Social Change 75(6): 735...
Progress of energy transportation (Watts per liter).Source: Koh and Magee, Technology Forecasting and Social Change 75(6):...
Source: Vaclav Smil
Increases in Scale: Larger Scale Often Leads to Higher               Temperatures, Pressures, and thus Efficiencies 1010Po...
Outline for Tonight• Engines  – Efficiency of engines  – Jet engines  – Benefits from increasing the scale of these engine...
Jet Engines• Combustion of high temperature and pressure fuel  provides thrust   – in accordance with Newtons laws of moti...
Jet Engines        Low-Bypass                                  High-BypassLow-bypass ratio leads to high exhaust   High by...
Jet Engines• Overall Efficiency =  thermal efficiency x  propulsive efficiency• Propulsive Efficiency  = 2Vf/(Vf + Ve)    ...
Increases in pressure and temperature led to higher efficiencies (see next slide) and lower fuel consumption Source: Inter...
Past and Future Efforts to Increase EfficiencyThermal Efficiency                                                         P...
Outline for Tonight• Engines  – Efficiency of engines  – Jet engines  – Benefits from increasing the scale of these engine...
Larger Scale Often Leads to Higher Temperatures and                 Pressures: Maximum Scale of Engines and Turbines 1010P...
From 10 HP (horse power)                       in 1817                     To 1,300,000 HP today                       (10...
From ¾ horsepower in 1885 (Benz)to world’s largest internalcombustion engine (90,000 HP)Produced by Wartsila-Sulzerand use...
Benefits of Larger Scale in EnginesCost of cylinderor piston is functionof cylinder’s surfacearea (πDH)                   ...
Benefits from Larger Engines• Not just internal combustion engines (ICE), any  form of engine that has pistons and cylinde...
Comparing Price Per Horsepower for Smaller            and Larger Engines• In terms of price per horsepower (HP),  – A 20 H...
Limits to Paradigms for Engines• Limits to thermal efficiencies (as defined by  thermodynamics) have almost been reached• ...
Outline for Tonight• Engines  – Efficiency of engines  – Jet engines  – Benefits from increasing the scale of these engine...
Technology Paradigms for Transportation TechnologiesTechnology Basic Operation                               Basic Methods...
Reaching Limits for Transportation SpeedExploring and Shaping International Futures, Hughes & Hillebrand, 2006, p. 37
Scaling in Transportation Equipment• In trains, ships, planes, and vehicles   – Basically long cylinder   – Construction/p...
From tens of horsepower, milesper hour in single digits, and 70passengers in 1804To thousands of horsepower,thousands of p...
A New Concept (Lighter Electric Trains) and a Big Train:8000 KW of Power, 236 miles per hour, andthousands of passengersIt...
Outline for Tonight• Engines  – Efficiency of engines  – Jet engines  – Benefits from increasing the scale of these engine...
SteamshipsFirst patent received          One of First Steamships      in 1700s                  in America - 1815
From 1,340 tons in 1838, 10 miles             per hour, and 48 passengers in 1838             (28 Tons per passenger)     ...
From 1807 tons in 1878              To 500,000 tons in 2009Oil Tankers
Benefits of Scaling in Oil Tankers and               Freight VesselsScale       Dimension            Oil Tankers        Fr...
Outline for Tonight• Engines  – Efficiency of engines  – Jet engines  – Benefits from increasing the scale of these engine...
Geometric Scaling in Jet Engines (1)• Combustion chambers (basically a cylinder)  benefit from larger scale  – costs rise ...
Jet Engines                              I-AFrom 1,250 pounds of thrust in 1942 (GE’s I-A) to 127,000 pounds of thrust tod...
Geometric Scaling in Jet Engines (2)• Other benefits from larger scale were discussed  earlier tonight:  – Larger engines ...
From DC-1 in 1931                     (12 passengers, 180 mph)                     To A-380 in 2005                     (9...
Current Prices per Capacity for Large andSmall Scale Oil Tankers and AircraftScale   Dimension   Oil Tankers      Aircraft...
Outline for Tonight• Engines  – Efficiency of engines  – Jet engines  – Benefits from increasing the scale of these engine...
From First Benz in 1885 (1600 cc, ¾hp, 8 mph, 13 km/h, 1 passenger)To: Model T (2900 cc, 20 hp) in 1909And: BMW mini-coupe...
From First Benz in 1885 (single                   passenger, ¾ hp, 8 mph)                   To 300 passenger bus in China ...
From First Benz in 1885 (single                      passenger, ¾ hp, 8 mph)                      To 300 tons of material ...
Results from benefits of geometric     scaling for land, sea, and air         transportation in U.S.• Transportation share...
(for U.S.)Source: Cities, regions and the decline of transport costs, Papers in Regional Science83: 197–228 (2004), Edward...
For U.S.Source: Cities, regions and the decline of transport costs, Papers in Regional Science83: 197–228 (2004), Edward L...
(only for rail in U.S.)Source: Cities, regions and the decline of transport costs, Papers in Regional Science83: 197–228 (...
But Increasing the Scale of Transportation Equipment  Required Better Components and Advances in Science• Bigger locomotiv...
Limits to Efficiencies and Scaling• Are limits to improvements in efficiencies being  approached?• Are limits to physical ...
How About Electric Vehicles?• The main difference between conventional  and electric vehicles is the  – replacement of the...
Improvements in Energy Storage Density per kilogram.Source: Koh and Magee, 2005
Improvements in Energy Storage Density per unit cost.Source: Koh and Magee, 2005
Source: Tarascon, J. 2009. Batteries for Transportation Now and In the Future,        presented at Energy 2050, Stockholm,...
Batteries• Can better materials be found?• Materials with     – higher energy or power densities per volume or weight?    ...
What About Batteries that Benefit from                  Reductions in Scale  • Thin-film ones that benefit from geometric ...
What About Flywheels?• Energy densities are already high, have steeper  slopes and improvements projected to continue• Ene...
How About Magnetic Levitating           (MagLev) Trains?• A magnetic field enables a train to float above the  tracks, thu...
Outline for Tonight• Engines  – Efficiency of engines  – Jet engines  – Benefits from increasing the scale of these engine...
Technology Paradigms for Electricity GenerationTechnology Basic Operation                       Basic Methods of          ...
Electricity Generation• Most electricity is generated via  – Steam, boilers, and steam turbines• The steam can be generate...
Costs Fell as the Scale was Increased• Larger steam boilers and turbines   – led to cheaper turbines and   – thus lower co...
Electricity Generating PlantsEdison’s Pearl Street Stationin NY City (1880) From Kilowatts (125 HP engine) to Giga-Watts
Scale of Coal-Fired Power Plants was Increased                                    Source:                                 ...
Larger Scalealso EnabledHigherTemperaturesand Pressures
HigherTemperaturesand Pressuresled to HigherEfficiencies
Capital Costs Rose,but Costs per OutputDeclined(data is for one U.S.utility, AEP)
Transmission Systems• Also benefit from increases in scale• But here scale is measured in terms of voltage• Higher voltage...
Fig. 3. Progress of energy transportation; (a) powered distanceand (b) powered distance per unit cost.
Better transmission systems and lower capital                     costs per output (from increases in efficiency and      ...
Outline for Tonight• Engines  – Efficiency of engines  – Jet engines  – Benefits from increasing the scale of these engine...
Energy densities are important for many types of energy technologies!
Even Higher Energy Densities ExistStorage type                                                                 Specific en...
Another way to look at energy density; Source: Vaclav Smil
Fusion (1)• The sun’s temperature can be created with  – high energy lasers impacting on fuel pellet  – high magnetic fiel...
Fusion (2)• “When I started in this field as a graduate  student we made 1/10 of a Watt of fusion heat  in a pulse of 1/10...
Fusion (3)• According to Michio Kaku (2011)• The current record is 16 MW, created by the  European Joint European Trust• T...
Fusion (4)• But what will the costs be?• Will increases in scale lead to sufficient  reductions in cost?• Will benefits fr...
Conclusions (1)• Energy and transportation equipment have  benefited from  – Improvements in efficiency  – increases in sc...
Conclusions (2)• Many new technologies are decades away  – or are they? Can you identify technological trends that    sugg...
Energy and Transportation Systems: How might Technological Change be Creating New Opportunities in Them?
Energy and Transportation Systems: How might Technological Change be Creating New Opportunities in Them?
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Energy and Transportation Systems: How might Technological Change be Creating New Opportunities in Them?

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These slides show how the falling costs of energy and transportation systems have been primarily from increases in scale. Increases in the scale of steam, internal combustion, and jet engines along with steam turbines and other electrical generating plants drove dramatic reductions in the cost of energy in the 19th and early 20th centuries. Similar cost reductions occurred as the scale of locomotives, ships, vehicles, and planes were increased. However, now that the limits to this scaling have been reached and carbon emissions have become a major problem, new sources of energy must be found. Electric vehicles, magnetic levitating trains, and fusion are some of the new concepts that may become economically feasible. Another set of slides addresses solar cells and wind turbines. These slides are based on a forthcoming book entitled “Technology Change and the Rise of New Industries and they are the ninth session in a course entitled “Analyzing Hi-Tech Opportunities.”

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Energy and Transportation Systems: How might Technological Change be Creating New Opportunities in Them?

  1. 1. How Might Technological Change be Creating New Opportunities inEnergy and Transportation Systems? 9th Session of MT5009 A/Prof Jeffrey Funk Division of Engineering and Technology Management National University of Singapore
  2. 2. Objectives• What has and is driving improvements in cost and performance of energy & transportation systems?• Can we use such information to – identify new types of energy & transportation systems? – analyze potential for improvements in these new systems? – compare new and old systems now and in future? – better understand when new systems might become technically and economically feasible? – analyze the opportunities created by these new systems? – understand technology change in general
  3. 3. This is the Ninth Session in MT5009Session Technology1 Objectives and overview of course2 Four methods of achieving improvements in performance and cost: 1) improving efficiency; 2) radical new processes; 3) geometric scaling; 4) improvements in “key” components (e.g., ICs)3 Semiconductors, ICs, new forms of transistors, electronic systems4 Bio-electronics, tissue engineering, and health care5 MEMS, nano-technology and programmable matter6 Telecommunications and Internet7 Human-computer interfaces, virtual and augmented reality8 Lighting and displays9 Energy and transportation10 Solar cells and wind turbines
  4. 4. Outline for Tonight• Engines – Efficiency of engines – Jet engines – Benefits from increasing the scale of these engines• Transportation Equipment – Trains – Ships – Aircraft – Vehicles• Electricity Generation – Fossil fuels and steam turbines – Other sources (of electricity) and issues
  5. 5. Technology Paradigms for EnginesType of Basic Operation Basic Methods ofEngine Improvement within Technology ParadigmSteam engine Power is generated and work Increase efficiency(from early done by pressurized steam1700s) pushing against a piston Higher temperature, pressure, and sizeInternal Power is generated and work (geometric scaling)combustion done by an explosion andengine (from subsequent expansion of Better controls over fuel, air,mid-1800s) gaseous fuel pushing against a and heat pistonJet engine Combustion of high(from mid- temperature and pressure fuel1900s) provides thrust
  6. 6. Efficiency of Engines• Efficiency of heat engine = 1 – Tout/Tin• Increased temperatures often require – better materials – often higher pressures – often larger scale• These engines propel transportation device. For them, we are often interested in power density or miles per gallon. This also requires reductions in – weight – friction – etc.
  7. 7. Figure 2.2 Improvements in Maximum Efficiency of Engines and Turbines Combined 50% cycle gas turbine Source: adapted from (Smil, 2010, Figure 40% 1.2) andThermal (Edwards et al, 2010) DieselEfficiency engines 30% Gas turbine 20% Steam turbine 10% Steam Engines Gasoline internal combustion engines 0 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
  8. 8. Progress of energy transportation (Watts per kg)Source: Koh and Magee, Technology Forecasting and Social Change 75(6): 735-758
  9. 9. Progress of energy transportation (Watts per liter).Source: Koh and Magee, Technology Forecasting and Social Change 75(6): 735-758
  10. 10. Source: Vaclav Smil
  11. 11. Increases in Scale: Larger Scale Often Leads to Higher Temperatures, Pressures, and thus Efficiencies 1010Power Steam turbines(W) 108 Source: adapted from (Smil, 2010 Gas 106 Figure turbines 2.11) 104 Steam Internal Engines combustion engines 102 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
  12. 12. Outline for Tonight• Engines – Efficiency of engines – Jet engines – Benefits from increasing the scale of these engines• Transportation Equipment – Trains – Ships – Aircraft – Vehicles• Electricity Generation – Fossil fuels and steam turbines – Other sources and issues
  13. 13. Jet Engines• Combustion of high temperature and pressure fuel provides thrust – in accordance with Newtons laws of motion• This broad definition of jet engines includes – Turbojets, turbofans, rockets, ramjets, pulse jets, pump-jets• Jet engines replaced piston ones partly because – pistons can only move so fast – propellers are limited by speed of sound and require dense air – air causes friction (higher altitudes have thinner air and thus less friction) – thus jet engines (and rockets) can potentially go much faster than piston engines
  14. 14. Jet Engines Low-Bypass High-BypassLow-bypass ratio leads to high exhaust High bypass ratio leads to low exhaust speed, high flight speeds, and low speed, lower flight speeds, and higher fuel efficiency fuel efficiencyAbout 1.5 for fighter jets About 17 for commercial airliners
  15. 15. Jet Engines• Overall Efficiency = thermal efficiency x propulsive efficiency• Propulsive Efficiency = 2Vf/(Vf + Ve) where Vf = flight velocity Ve = exhaust velocity Vf and Ve are determined by the bypass ratioSource: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Aviation and the Global Atmosphere, Chapter 7
  16. 16. Increases in pressure and temperature led to higher efficiencies (see next slide) and lower fuel consumption Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Aviation and the Global Atmosphere, Chapter 7
  17. 17. Past and Future Efforts to Increase EfficiencyThermal Efficiency Propulsive Efficiency Unducted fans (UDF) are needed to increase bypass ratios Source: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Aviation and the Global Atmosphere, Chapter 7
  18. 18. Outline for Tonight• Engines – Efficiency of engines – Jet engines – Benefits from increasing the scale of these engines• Transportation Equipment – Trains – Ships – Aircraft – Vehicles• Electricity Generation – Fossil fuels and steam turbines – Other sources and issues
  19. 19. Larger Scale Often Leads to Higher Temperatures and Pressures: Maximum Scale of Engines and Turbines 1010Power Steam(W) Source: turbines adapted 108 from (Smil, 2010 Figure 2.11) Gas 106 turbines 104 Steam Internal Engines combustion engines 102 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000
  20. 20. From 10 HP (horse power) in 1817 To 1,300,000 HP today (1000 MW)Steam engineTheir modern day equivalent: steam turbine
  21. 21. From ¾ horsepower in 1885 (Benz)to world’s largest internalcombustion engine (90,000 HP)Produced by Wartsila-Sulzerand used in the Emma Maersk(a ship)
  22. 22. Benefits of Larger Scale in EnginesCost of cylinderor piston is functionof cylinder’s surfacearea (πDH) Height ofOutput of engine cylinderis function ofcylinder’s (H)volume (πD2H/4)Result: output risesfaster than costs asdiameter is increased Diameter of cylinder (D)
  23. 23. Benefits from Larger Engines• Not just internal combustion engines (ICE), any form of engine that has pistons and cylinders• Steam engines may benefit more from increases in scale than do ICE since they have a boiler and boilers benefit from increases in scale – Like reaction vessels, costs increase as a function of surface area and output increases as a function of volume• Other benefits of scaling – Higher temperatures and pressures have higher efficiencies – Larger engines enable higher temperatures and higher pressures
  24. 24. Comparing Price Per Horsepower for Smaller and Larger Engines• In terms of price per horsepower (HP), – A 20 HP steam engine was 1/3 that of a 2 HP engine in 1800 (Source: von Tunzelman) – Honda’s 225 HP marine engine is currently 26% of its 2.3 HP engine (price per HP)• Extrapolating to the complete range of engines – largest steam engines in locomotives had thousands of HP and largest steam turbines have 1.3 million HP – the first (3/4 HP) and now largest (90,000 HP) ICE – the largest engine would be less than 1% the price per HP of the smallest engine
  25. 25. Limits to Paradigms for Engines• Limits to thermal efficiencies (as defined by thermodynamics) have almost been reached• Limits to scaling (Higher temperature, pressure, and size) have almost been reached• Limits to complexity – First jet engine in 1936: a few hundred parts – Modern jet engines: as many as 22,000 parts – This complexity raises costs!• But problems with emissions (carbon dioxide, lead, nitrous and sulfur dioxides) drive the need for new technologies – what could they be?
  26. 26. Outline for Tonight• Engines – Efficiency of engines – Jet engines – Benefits from increasing the scale of these engines• Transportation Equipment – Trains – Ships – Aircraft – Vehicles• Electricity Generation – Fossil fuels and steam turbines – Other sources and issues
  27. 27. Technology Paradigms for Transportation TechnologiesTechnology Basic Operation Basic Methods of Improvement within Technology ParadigmLocomotive Output from steam engine turns Geometric Scaling wheels and wheels run on trackSteam ship Output from steam engine (and later Aerodynamic designs ICE) turns propeller Lighter materialsElectric trains Electricity powers the rotation of wheels through motorsAutomobiles Output from ICE or electric motor turns wheels and wheels move over groundAircraft Pushed forward by output from internal combustion engine (later by jet engine) and wings provide “lift”ICE: internal combustion engine
  28. 28. Reaching Limits for Transportation SpeedExploring and Shaping International Futures, Hughes & Hillebrand, 2006, p. 37
  29. 29. Scaling in Transportation Equipment• In trains, ships, planes, and vehicles – Basically long cylinder – Construction/production cost is proportional to surface area while output (people miles) is proportional to volume (and speed) – Benefits from increasing the scale of engines supports increases in scale of transportation equipment – Although operating cost rise with increases in weight and speed, initially they don’t rise as fast as output does (but diseconomies usually emerge)• Results from increases in scale – Cost of transportation dropped dramatically in the 1800s and 1900s as large trains, ships, planes and buses were constructed (also information technology and other factors)
  30. 30. From tens of horsepower, milesper hour in single digits, and 70passengers in 1804To thousands of horsepower,thousands of passengers, and126 miles per hour in 1938
  31. 31. A New Concept (Lighter Electric Trains) and a Big Train:8000 KW of Power, 236 miles per hour, andthousands of passengersIt appears that the limits of scale have been reached.
  32. 32. Outline for Tonight• Engines – Efficiency of engines – Jet engines – Benefits from increasing the scale of these engines• Transportation Equipment – Trains – Ships – Aircraft – Vehicles• Electricity Generation – Fossil fuels and steam turbines – Other sources and issues
  33. 33. SteamshipsFirst patent received One of First Steamships in 1700s in America - 1815
  34. 34. From 1,340 tons in 1838, 10 miles per hour, and 48 passengers in 1838 (28 Tons per passenger) To 225,000 tons in 2009, 26 miles per hour, and 5300 passengers in 2009 (42 Tons per passenger)Ocean-TravellingSteamships
  35. 35. From 1807 tons in 1878 To 500,000 tons in 2009Oil Tankers
  36. 36. Benefits of Scaling in Oil Tankers and Freight VesselsScale Dimension Oil Tankers Freight VesselsLarge Scale Price $120 Million $59 Million Capacity 265,000 tons 170,000 tons Price per capacity $453 per ton $347 per tonSmall Scale Price $43 Million $28 Million Capacity 38,500 tons 40,000 tons Price per capacity $1,116 per ton $700 per ton Source: UN study of shipping equipment, 2009
  37. 37. Outline for Tonight• Engines – Efficiency of engines – Jet engines – Benefits from increasing the scale of these engines• Transportation Equipment – Trains – Ships – Aircraft – Vehicles• Electricity Generation – Fossil fuels and steam turbines – Other sources and issues
  38. 38. Geometric Scaling in Jet Engines (1)• Combustion chambers (basically a cylinder) benefit from larger scale – costs rise with surface area – output rises with volume
  39. 39. Jet Engines I-AFrom 1,250 pounds of thrust in 1942 (GE’s I-A) to 127,000 pounds of thrust today (GE90-115B)Power (horsepower) = thrust (lbf) x speed (feet/second) / 550From 660 (at 200mph) to 170,000 (at 500 mph) horsepower
  40. 40. Geometric Scaling in Jet Engines (2)• Other benefits from larger scale were discussed earlier tonight: – Larger engines enable higher temperatures, pressures – Higher temperatures enable higher thermal efficiencies• Larger engines are also needed because aircraft benefits from increases in scale – Aircraft cost per passenger is lower for larger than smaller planes – Labor costs are lower and fuel efficiencies are higher for larger aircraft
  41. 41. From DC-1 in 1931 (12 passengers, 180 mph) To A-380 in 2005 (900* passengers, 560 mph)*Economy only mode
  42. 42. Current Prices per Capacity for Large andSmall Scale Oil Tankers and AircraftScale Dimension Oil Tankers AircraftLarge Price $120 Million $346.3 MillionScale (A380) Capacity 265,000 tons 900 passengers Price per $453 per ton $384,777 per capacity passengerSmall Price $43 Million $62.5 MillionScale (A318) Capacity 38,500 tons 132 passengers Price per $1,116 per ton $473,348 per capacity passenger
  43. 43. Outline for Tonight• Engines – Efficiency of engines – Jet engines – Benefits from increasing the scale of these engines• Transportation Equipment – Trains – Ships – Aircraft – Vehicles• Electricity Generation – Fossil fuels and steam turbines – Other sources and issues
  44. 44. From First Benz in 1885 (1600 cc, ¾hp, 8 mph, 13 km/h, 1 passenger)To: Model T (2900 cc, 20 hp) in 1909And: BMW mini-coupe (218 HP,1600 cc, 120 mph)Not benefiting from scaling becauseautomobiles are designed only for afew passengers!!!
  45. 45. From First Benz in 1885 (single passenger, ¾ hp, 8 mph) To 300 passenger bus in China with over 300 horsepowerBuses do benefit from scaling!!But have limits been reached?
  46. 46. From First Benz in 1885 (single passenger, ¾ hp, 8 mph) To 300 tons of material with 3000 horsepower in 21st centuryTrucks also benefit from scalingBut have limits been reached?
  47. 47. Results from benefits of geometric scaling for land, sea, and air transportation in U.S.• Transportation share of U.S. GDP dropped by factor of 10• Freight bill divided by U.S. GDP dropped by 50%• Dollars per ton-mile for rail in U.S. dropped almost by factor of 10• Globalization is partly a result of scaling in transportation equipment (and IT, containerized shipping, and changes in political systems)
  48. 48. (for U.S.)Source: Cities, regions and the decline of transport costs, Papers in Regional Science83: 197–228 (2004), Edward L. Glaeser, Janet E. Kohlhase
  49. 49. For U.S.Source: Cities, regions and the decline of transport costs, Papers in Regional Science83: 197–228 (2004), Edward L. Glaeser, Janet E. Kohlhase
  50. 50. (only for rail in U.S.)Source: Cities, regions and the decline of transport costs, Papers in Regional Science83: 197–228 (2004), Edward L. Glaeser, Janet E. Kohlhase
  51. 51. But Increasing the Scale of Transportation Equipment Required Better Components and Advances in Science• Bigger locomotives and steam ships required – Bigger rail lines, ports, and canals – Lighter and stronger materials for them and their engines – Better tolerances for engines• Electric trains required – Cheaper electricity, better motors (from the late 19th century)• Automobiles and aircraft required – Lighter materials for them and their engines – Better tolerances for engines – For aircraft, • expensive composites for the fuselage and engines • larger aircraft have required larger terminals
  52. 52. Limits to Efficiencies and Scaling• Are limits to improvements in efficiencies being approached?• Are limits to physical spaces being approached for – rail lines and terminals? – shipping lanes and ports? – air space and terminals? – roads and parking?• Are limits to making transportation equipment lighter being approached?• If there are fewer opportunities than how can we solve problems with emissions?
  53. 53. How About Electric Vehicles?• The main difference between conventional and electric vehicles is the – replacement of the internal combustion engine and the gasoline tank – with a battery and a motor• How much can a battery’s – energy storage density be improved? – cost be reduced through increases in scale of production equipment?
  54. 54. Improvements in Energy Storage Density per kilogram.Source: Koh and Magee, 2005
  55. 55. Improvements in Energy Storage Density per unit cost.Source: Koh and Magee, 2005
  56. 56. Source: Tarascon, J. 2009. Batteries for Transportation Now and In the Future, presented at Energy 2050, Stockholm, Sweden, October 19-20.
  57. 57. Batteries• Can better materials be found?• Materials with – higher energy or power densities per volume or weight? – lower costs per volume or weight?• Will these better materials enable the cost and performance (e.g., range and acceleration) of electric vehicles to be rapidly improved?• Or will the costs fall as the scale of production is increased (Lowe, M, Tokuoka, S, Trigg, T, Gereffi, G 2010. Lithium-ion Batteries for Electric Vehicles, Center on Globalization, Governance & Competitiveness, Duke University, October 5) – Lithium-ion batteries for cars are different from those for electronic products – Also have lower production volumes and higher costs
  58. 58. What About Batteries that Benefit from Reductions in Scale • Thin-film ones that benefit from geometric scaling in the same that solar cells do • Nano-scale ones – While conventional batteries separate the two electrodes by thick barrier, nano-scale batteries place the electrodes close to each other with nano-wires and other nano-devices – By reducing the diameter of the electrode or catalyst particles, the ratio of surface area-to volume goes up and thus the rate of exchange between particles increases • Remember the discussion of nano-technology where surface area-to volume ratio was emphasized – Some technologies (phenomenon) benefit from increases in this ratioSources: 1) Economist, 2011. The power of the press. January 20, 2011, p. 73; 2) Scientists Reveal Battery Behavior atthe Nanoscale, Science News, September 15, 2010, http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2010/09/100914151043.htm.3) Building Better Batteries from the Nanoscale Up, Scientific computing,http://www.scientificcomputing. com/news-DS-Building-Better-Batteries-from-the-Nanoscale -Up-121010.aspx,
  59. 59. What About Flywheels?• Energy densities are already high, have steeper slopes and improvements projected to continue• Energy is function of mass times velocity squared, lighter materials (carbon fiber) enable higher speeds: Rapid improvements are occurring• Better for hybrids than are batteries because twice as much energy is converted during braking than with batteries• Also cheaper: One-fourth the price?• Now used in Formula 1 cars• Challenge is reliability with required vacuums Source: The Economist Technology Quarterly, December 3, 2011
  60. 60. How About Magnetic Levitating (MagLev) Trains?• A magnetic field enables a train to float above the tracks, thus eliminating friction• Problem is high cost of magnets• Potential solution is superconducting magnets – Need higher temperature superconducting materials (currently best are about 90 degrees Kelvin) – Difficult to mold ceramic materials into wires • nano-techniques help, prices have fallen by 90% since 1990s • they remain ten times higher than copper cables ($15- 25/kiloamp per meter) • Best applications are in places where laying new cables is expensive
  61. 61. Outline for Tonight• Engines – Efficiency of engines – Jet engines – Benefits from increasing the scale of these engines• Transportation Equipment – Trains – Ships – Aircraft – Vehicles• Electricity Generation – Fossil fuels and steam turbines – Other sources and issues
  62. 62. Technology Paradigms for Electricity GenerationTechnology Basic Operation Basic Methods of Improvement within Technology ParadigmBattery Transforms chemical energy into More reactive, higher current electrical energy carrying, and lighter materialsGenerators Movement of a loop of wire Higher temperature, pressure,and Turbines between poles of magnet by and scale turbine generates electricity Higher energy density of fuels Turbine rotation driven by water, wind or steam where steam is generated by many sourcesPhotovoltaic Absorption of photon releases Thinner materials that absorb energy equal to “band-gap” of more solar radiation, have less material recombination of electrons and holes, and have band-gaps matching solar spectrum
  63. 63. Electricity Generation• Most electricity is generated via – Steam, boilers, and steam turbines• The steam can be generated by different fuels – Coal – Oil – Nuclear – Geothermal – Solar thermal
  64. 64. Costs Fell as the Scale was Increased• Larger steam boilers and turbines – led to cheaper turbines and – thus lower costs of electricity generation• Higher voltages led to lower transmission losses and thus facilitated more centralized generation of electricity• Result – price of electricity in U.S. dropped from $4.50 to $0.09 between 1892 and 1970 in constant dollars – little since then so diminishing returns to scale have probably been reached – Some argue US implemented too much scale
  65. 65. Electricity Generating PlantsEdison’s Pearl Street Stationin NY City (1880) From Kilowatts (125 HP engine) to Giga-Watts
  66. 66. Scale of Coal-Fired Power Plants was Increased Source: Hirsh R (1989). Technology and Transformation in the Electric Utility Industry, Cambridge University Press.
  67. 67. Larger Scalealso EnabledHigherTemperaturesand Pressures
  68. 68. HigherTemperaturesand Pressuresled to HigherEfficiencies
  69. 69. Capital Costs Rose,but Costs per OutputDeclined(data is for one U.S.utility, AEP)
  70. 70. Transmission Systems• Also benefit from increases in scale• But here scale is measured in terms of voltage• Higher voltages reduce energy loss – HVAC: high voltage alternating current – HVDC: high voltage direct current• How about superconductors for transmission systems?
  71. 71. Fig. 3. Progress of energy transportation; (a) powered distanceand (b) powered distance per unit cost.
  72. 72. Better transmission systems and lower capital costs per output (from increases in efficiency and scale) led to lower electricity costs per kilowatt hour: From $4.50 to $0.09 in 1996 USDSource: Hirsh R (1989). Technology and Transformation in the Electric Utility Industry, Cambridge University Press.
  73. 73. Outline for Tonight• Engines – Efficiency of engines – Jet engines – Benefits from increasing the scale of these engines• Transportation Equipment – Trains – Ships – Aircraft – Vehicles• Electricity Generation – Fossil fuels and steam turbines – Other sources and issues
  74. 74. Energy densities are important for many types of energy technologies!
  75. 75. Even Higher Energy Densities ExistStorage type Specific energy (MJ/kg)Indeterminate matter and antimatter 89,876,000,000 *Deuterium-tritium fusion 576,000,000Uranium-235 used in nuclear weapons 88,250,000Natural uranium (99.3% U-238, 0.7% U-235) in fast breeder reactor 86,000,000Reactor-grade uranium (3.5% U-235) in light water reactor 3,456,00030% Pu-238 α-decay 2,200,000Hf-178m2 isomer 1,326,000Natural uranium (0.7% U235) in light water reactor 443,00030% Ta-180m isomer 41,340 Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density*about 4740 kg of antimatter could have supplied humans with all their energy needs in 2008. for more information on anti-matter, see Michio Kaku, Physics of the Impossible, New York: Doubleday, 2008
  76. 76. Another way to look at energy density; Source: Vaclav Smil
  77. 77. Fusion (1)• The sun’s temperature can be created with – high energy lasers impacting on fuel pellet – high magnetic field• Challenges – high accuracy of laser beams and spherical uniformity of pellets are needed in order to achieve consistent heating across the pellet – extremely precise magnetic field is needed so that the gas is compressed evenly • very difficult when done inside a dipole • supercomputer plots the magnetic and electric fields • Superconducting magnets may be needed
  78. 78. Fusion (2)• “When I started in this field as a graduate student we made 1/10 of a Watt of fusion heat in a pulse of 1/100 of second. Now the record is in the range of 10 million Watts for a second. That is an improvement by an overall factor of 10 billion. The international ITER project will produce 500 million Watts of fusion heat for periods of at least 300 - 500 seconds.• Rob Goldston, Director of the Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory, 2009?
  79. 79. Fusion (3)• According to Michio Kaku (2011)• The current record is 16 MW, created by the European Joint European Trust• The target date for breakeven in energy is now set to be 2019• DEMO is expected to continually produce energy and begin doing so in 2033. It will produce two billion watts of power (2 GW) or 25 times more energy than it consumes
  80. 80. Fusion (4)• But what will the costs be?• Will increases in scale lead to sufficient reductions in cost?• Will benefits from increases in scale be similar to those experienced with coal-fired plants?
  81. 81. Conclusions (1)• Energy and transportation equipment have benefited from – Improvements in efficiency – increases in scale – and new technologies (and science)• These changes created opportunities for new and existing firms• But limits to scale have probably been reached for most existing technologies• Thus, improvements in cost and performance, including reducing global warming, probably require new technologies
  82. 82. Conclusions (2)• Many new technologies are decades away – or are they? Can you identify technological trends that suggest otherwise? – What about fusion, electric vehicles or magnetic levitating trains ?• In the next session, we look at two technologies (solar cells and wind turbines) that are experiencing rapidly falling costs

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