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AI and Future of Professions


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These slides show that the demand for most professions is growing steadily in spite of continued improvements in productivity enhancing tools for them. They also show that AI will have a largely incremental effect on the professions, in combination with Moore's Law, cloud computing, and Big Data. They do this accounting, legal, architects, journalists, and engineers.

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AI and Future of Professions

  1. 1. Jeffrey Funk Technology Consultant Retired Associate Professor For information on other presentations, see
  2. 2. Artificial Intelligence Continues to Improve, Supported by Moore’s Law and Growing Internet
  3. 3. Error Rate for Image Recognition Performance has Fallen since 2010* *Measured by ImageNet classification Chess Performance (ELO Ratings) Rose Between 1990 and 2014 (50% better)
  4. 4. Error Rate for Automated Speech Recog- nition (ASR) Has Also Fallen https://srcons tantin.wordpr 7/01/28/perfo rmance- trends-in-ai/ Automated Chat Boxes Have Become Common on Websites
  5. 5. ELO ratings for best computer chess engines rose from 2000 in 1990 to 3300 by 2014 performance-trends-in-ai/ Didn’t even double
  6. 6.  Will AI, in combination with Moore’s Law, Internet speed, cloud computing, and Big Data, lead to high levels of unemployment?  Will it Require Basic Guaranteed Income?  Or will it merely change the required skills, as computers and Big Data have done? • Leading to better productivity enhancing tools that must be mastered by professionals
  7. 7.  Not as rapid as Moore’s Law • Doubling every 18 months versus no doubling in 14 years  These improvements are also less relevant than Moore’s Law • Not all applications require better image or speech recognition, or even skills at playing chess • They require different types of skills– but what are they?  We shouldn’t expect AI to have the impact that Moore’s Law had on computers
  8. 8.  Are numbers of them growing? Will they continue to grow?  How have computers (and Cloud Computing, Big Data) impacted on their work over last 30 years? • What types of new skills have emerged?  How might impact of AI be different? • Are algorithms or machine learning different from previous improvements? • What types of new skills might be required?
  9. 9. Routine Non-Routine Manual Assembly line: mostly automated Nail Salon; probably won’t be automated Cognitive Many Jobs are being Auto- mated!!!! Hardest to Automate. Where you want to be Easier to make computers exhibit adult (calculations) than child (perception and mobility) behavior Low-level sensor motors still require much computational resources
  10. 10. Most Job Growth is for Non-Routine Cognitive - Routine Cognitive Work is Flat &id=2094:trump-vs-the-robots-us-jobs-and-promises&Itemid=206
  11. 11. &id=2094:trump-vs-the-robots-us-jobs-and-promises&Itemid=206 Unemployment Rate Much Higher for Routine than Nonroutine Cognitive
  12. 12.  Legal  Journalism  Accounting  Architecture  Engineering
  13. 13. evidence-for-structural-change-growth-in-lawyer-employment- and-earnings-michael-simko.html The Total Number of Employed Lawyers has Grown Since 1976
  14. 14. ABA: American Bar Association BLS: Bureau of Labor Statistics w-school-bubble -law-tuition-law-degrees-in- bubble-applications-down/ Employed Passed bar exam Law School Graduates Millions of Graduates, Passed Bar Exam, and Employed Lawyers
  15. 15. Leading to Low Salaries for Some Graduates How can they repay $120K for Law School Tuition?
  16. 16. The Problems Continue Supply Demand
  17. 17. unemployment-among-new-lawyers-is-finally- decreasing/ Higher Supply than Demand Leads to “Surplus” (Red Line) and Unemployment (Blue Line) Leading to a “Surplus” of New Law Graduates
  18. 18. graduate-in-2017-2018.html Recent Low Number of Law School Entrants Suggests that the Supply is Finally Falling (30% drop)
  19. 19.  Old work involved paper • Asking clients to fill out forms • Now done with online questionnaires  Large legal cases involve researching legal precedents, which can now be done with computer searches  Computers and AI will continue to change legal jobs Richard and Daniel Susskind, The Future of the Professions, Oxford University Press
  20. 20.  Computers can “learn” some tasks • Finding and scanning relevant documents • Judging simple cases in which rules are clear and facts are not disputed  More difficult for computers to “learn” less routine and more ambiguous tasks • writing legal briefs • negotiating and appearing in court  Likely scenario: low-level jobs will be eliminated in UK and US, but other jobs will be created
  21. 21.  Ravn extracts data from official title deeds produced by UK Land Registry • Serves legal notices on correct property owners in real estate cases  LinkRFI analyzes 16 UK and European regulatory registers to check client names for banks  Luminance’s machine-learning technology enables lawyers to see all governing law in clauses within global sales contracts 11e7-8691-d5f7e0cd0a16?mhq5j=e2;
  22. 22.  Lex Machina analyzes millions of court decisions to help law firms • Determine which judges tend to favor plaintiffs, summarize legal strategies of opposing lawyers based on their case histories, and determine arguments most likely to convince specific judges  Lexoo facilitates outsourcing of legal work • Uses data and algorithms to match prices from experienced and self-employed lawyers with work for mid-size companies 11e7-8691-d5f7e0cd0a16?mhq5j=e2;
  23. 23.  DoNotPay asks questions about parking ticket and generates message to appropriate agency • Were signs clearly marked? • Were you parked illegally because of a medical emergency?  Apply to deportation, bankruptcy, divorce disputes? • They involve lengthy and confusing statutes that have been interpreted thousands of times • All exceptions, loopholes, and historical cases can be analyzed to determine best path forward  Robolawyers could help address needs of poor 11e7-8691-d5f7e0cd0a16?mhq5j=e2;
  24. 24. Law schools should be helping students • understand changes in work • how to use existing and future tools • how to develop next generation ones Law schools should also be helping students understand the larger picture • What types of overall value can lawyers provide society? • How can lawyers help reduce litigation time and cost?
  25. 25.  Legal  Journalism  Accounting  Architecture  Engineering
  26. 26. http://www.thepassivevoi publishers-vs- newspapers/ Employment in Newspapers vs. Internet Publishing
  27. 27. Newspapers Motion Picture and Video Production Periodicals/Magazines Books Internet Publishing and Broadcasting Employment is Changing from Newspapers, Books, and Magazines to Internet Publishing and Motion Pictures
  28. 28.  Number of articles written by robots is growing rapidly • Just input facts and let algorithm write paper  Associated Press (AP) creates more than 3,000 financial reports per quarter  Some estimate that 90 percent of news could be algorithmically generated by the mid-2020s &module=Ribbon&version=origin&region=Header&action=click&contentCollection=Opinion&pgtype=article
  29. 29. metajournalist-and-the-return-of-personalised-news- research-on-automated-reporting/
  30. 30. 1. Marketing Managers 2. Customer Service Representatives 3. Public Relations Specialists 4. Executive Secretaries and Administrative Assistants 5. Editors 6. Writers and Authors 7. Sales Representatives and Miscellaneous Services 8. Market Research Analysts 9. Public Relations Managers Journalism Majors are Also Looking Elsewhere for Work Top Ten Occupations by Interest from Journalism Majors / journalism
  31. 31. Should Journalism Majors Try to be Content Marketing Roles?
  32. 32.  New systems include templates  Journalists choose topic and system • accesses data sources • identifies key trends in data • Learns to do this better over time  Journalist chooses direction of article and adds key phrases  System writes article about trends and updates data analysis for future articles
  33. 33.  Washington Post (acquired by Jeff Bezos in 2013) Editors use Heliograf  For an area of interest • Hook Heliograf up to source of structured data (e.g., election data from • Create narrative templates for stories, including key phrases that account for different potential outcomes • Heliograf identifies relevant data, matches it to corresponding phrases in template, and then publishes different versions across different platforms
  34. 34.  In November 2012, • it took four employees 25 hours to compile and post just a fraction of election results manually  In November 2016, • Heliograf created more than 500 articles, with little human intervention, that had more than 500,000 clicks  Future • use Heliograf to keep data in stories up-to-date • E.g., someone shares a Tuesday story on Thursday, and the facts have changed, Heliograf automatically updates story with most recent facts
  35. 35. Systems automatically analyze data • Government, open source, physical sensors • Financial, demographic, climate, crime, sports, traffic, marriage, birth, social media • Identify trends and changes from historical patterns Journalists write articles using templates • Input key phrases • Systems build article around phrases Systems learn to do this better over time
  36. 36.  Should be helping students • understand these changes • how to use existing and future tools  Should also be preparing students for broader types of work • Marketing • Public Relations • Research Analysts Or should they reduce student intakes like Law Schools have done?
  37. 37.  Legal  Journalism  Accounting  Architecture  Engineering
  38. 38. 2015 Trends in the Supply of Accounting Graduates and the Demand for Public Accounting Recruits Accounting Degrees Awarded Have Seen Ups and Downs Enron WorldCom Scandals
  39. 39. Hiring by CPA (Certified Public Accountant) Firms has also Seen Ups and Downs 2015 Trends in the Supply of Accounting Graduates and the Demand for Public Accounting Recruits
  40. 40. Number of people taking CPA Exam Also Has Ups and Downs, but overall up from 1971 2015 Trends in the Supply of Accounting Graduates and the Demand for Public Accounting Recruits
  41. 41. Since about ½ of Candidates Pass, Number Passing Exam in 2014 about equalled number hired 45,000 Passed and 43,000 hired in 2014, But over- supply in previous years
  42. 42. What Else is Happening? CPA Firms are Hiring More Experts in Taxation, MIS, and Other 2015 Trends in the Supply of Accounting Graduates and the Demand for Public Accounting Recruits,
  43. 43.  Accounting continues to become more automated • Began with spreadsheets • Moved to tax preparation  Spreadsheets continue to become more sophisticated • Cash flow done with QuickBook, Xero, Kashflows • Compliance checked automatically • Enables accountants to focus on problem solving, like collecting payments Richard and Daniel Susskind, The Future of the Professions, Oxford University Press
  44. 44. survive-ai-1501688765
  45. 45.  Automates most accounting functions • Bank and credit card account feeds • Invoicing • Accounts payable • Expense claims • Fixed asset depreciation • Purchase orders • Other aspects of compliance  Dramatically reduced cost of accounting for small and medium size businesses
  46. 46.  Compliances done with TurboTax, H&R Block, At Home TaxACT But even planning is threatened; planning and compliance are different sides of same coin Compliance works forward from rules and regulations while planning works backwards from these rules and regulations Richard and Daniel Susskind, The Future of the Professions, Oxford University Press
  47. 47.  Samples (chosen by heuristics) used in past to minimize calculations  Big Data enables software to analyze 100% of the data, and continuously  Governments use software and big data to assess tax returns, estimate chances of fraud • Many require original electronic records, as opposed to paper • Electronic invoices are harder to fake than are paper ones es/2014/apr/automated-audits- 20127039.html Richard and Daniel Susskind, The Future of the Professions, Oxford University Press
  48. 48.  Machine Learning will automate some tasks, pushing accountants to higher-level problem solving  Fraud Prevention • Automatically monitor phone calls by traders for signs of wrongdoing, such as insider trading. • Machine-learning excels in spotting unusual patterns of transactions, which can indicate fraud  Risk Exposure • Use real-time tracking of risk exposures to enable companies to monitor capital requirements at all times -assessment-fraud-prevention-machine-learning
  49. 49.  Connect different types of data to produce financial reports  Take data directly out of a client's bank account, to produce financial reports right through to tax returns  Better visualize data with dashboards  Accountants can spend less time on compliance and more time on higher- level problem solving
  50. 50.  SMACC’s software uses more than 60 data points to review receipts and invoices  Checks whether math is accurate  Verifies issuer with details like Value Added Tax ID numbers  Places receipts and invoices in proper category  When software has “learned” how to handle each supplier, tasks are subsequently handled automatically
  51. 51.  Huge degree of complexity in interpreting and administering tax laws • thus time consuming for accountants  Machine “learning” can interpret legislative and case law changes • Identify where they are relevant to individual clients • Make recommendations to clients • Help companies more easily operate in multiple countries Machines will become better over time
  52. 52.  Should be helping students • Understand AI and their impact on accounting work • how to use existing and future tools • How to do higher-level problem solving  Should also be preparing students for being the drivers of these changes • New software tools require developers who understand accounting • Accountants can help develop next generation tools
  53. 53.  Legal  Journalism  Accounting  Architecture  Engineering
  54. 54. http://www.acsa- resources/acsa-atlas-project Architecture Degrees Are Growing, but not as Fast as Other Degrees Master Degrees Bachelor Degrees 18,000 in 2012 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 All Degrees 9,000 bachelor degrees in 2012
  55. 55. Number of Licensed Architects is Also Increasing, but not at Fast as Number of Graduates 9,000 bachelor degrees a year means 90,000 in last 10 years, 180 in last 20 years. How many unemployed or under-employed architects? More than 100,000?
  56. 56. $41,000 in 1990$ Salaries Have Grown Some, But not a Lot (1% per Year)
  57. 57.  Software eliminates wooden models • Use CAD and CAE ( VR and AR below) to create more design possibilities • Input objectives and designs are proposed • Computations done automatically to test more radical designs
  58. 58. Reduce the need for plywood mock ups and allow architects to change plans and allow clients an immersive view 3D CAD Enables Better Design
  59. 59. Examples of 3D CAD for Buildings Left are real buildings, Right is 3D CAD
  60. 60.  View designs at multiple levels and evaluate them in multiple ways • Including new needs such as smart homes  Do calculations • Best layout of spaces  Ensure compliance with safety and environmental regulations • Distances to exits • Number of elevators  Propose possible designs, different ways of construction, new forms of urban planning
  61. 61. Examples of Different Levels, Different Views
  62. 62.  Architects work closely with clients, local governments, local citizens and other entities  Architects have access to open source designs • Sketchup3d has one million designs • Grab Cad has 660,000 designs • Designs shared on many sites (e.g., Pinterest)  Regulatory compliance done automatically  Generative design is next step Richard and Daniel Susskind, The Future of the Professions, Oxford University Press
  63. 63.  AI-based systems propose many possible designs • Goal is to preserve design intent, instead of compromising on sub-optimal solutions  AI-based system must include • Logic of design • Aesthetics • Typography  System learns to do this over time as architects provide feedback on designs generated by AI-system
  64. 64.  AI-based systems can create thousands of design variations based on inputs like • sun exposure, views, or pedestrian movement  Some of this technology comes from web design • Applies slight changes to color, title treatment, and cropping of images  Just as machine learning helped with web design, it will help with architectural design
  65. 65. Iris VR Architecture Demo Walkthrough Iris VR CAD can do even better: Allowing Users to See the Inside of the Building
  66. 66.  Should be helping students • understand these changes • how to use existing and future tools • How AI can propose new designs and learn from feedback  Should also be preparing students for being the drivers of these changes • New software tools for architecture require developers who understand architecture • Architects can help develop next generation tools
  67. 67.  Legal  Journalism  Accounting  Architecture  Engineering • Some data will be for STEM (Science, Engineering,Technology, Mathematics)
  68. 68. Thousands of STEM Workers in U.S. - Growing Quickly
  69. 69. Still Growing Now
  70. 70. IT is Much Bigger than Engineering
  71. 71. IT Also Growing Faster than Engineering
  72. 72. Mech Eng Elec Eng CS w/i Eng Comp Eng Civil Eng Chem Eng 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Annual Number of Engineering Graduates (B.S.) Also Growing Quickly, per 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
  73. 73. science-education-explosion/ Also Growing Quickly with PC bubble in 1985 and IT bubble in 2003
  74. 74. computer-scientists#survey-answer More Recent Data Shows Same Pattern
  75. 75. High Annual Salaries (Mean) for Engineers (and Computer) Only Lower than Doctors, Dentists, and Lawyers
  76. 76. sheets/the-stem-workforce-an-occupational-overview/ Unemployment Rates for STEM and All Occupations: Much Lower than Other Occupations All occupations
  77. 77.  Calculators from late 1960s  CAD and CAE from 1970s • These changes have continued and still continue • Automation of calculations and design • Improving productivity of engineers and expanding their work
  78. 78.  Better software keeps coming • automates low-level design work  Most engineering analysis has been automated • Mechanical Eng: fluid and heat flow • Electrical Eng: chip and board design • Civil Eng: stress analysis • Yet little de-emphasis by engineering programs on mathematical analysis
  79. 79.  Lower cost software also changes work • Done online with software-as-a- service • Enables more design options to be considered by small firms, individuals, emerging economies • For example, water flow analysis for fish farms  Enables more collaboration • More data sharing and team work
  80. 80.  Generative Design is one big change that is now occurring  As with architectural design, new engineering designs are proposed by a CAD system  Teams of designers input constraints and system proposes designs  System learns from feedback  Airbus uses such a system from AutoCAD to design structural parts
  81. 81. Proposed New Structural Partition on Airbus Key constraint is weight Minimize weight while providing sufficient strength
  82. 82.  Primarily utilizes 3D models and finite element analysis for determining load paths • specified geometries, supports, boundary conditions and volumes  3D model loaded into FEA software • FEA software identifies load paths • Software removes superfluous material from non-load bearing areas  Result is lighter part
  83. 83.  Similar to topology optimization • Goal is weight minimization using FEA solver and iterative 3D design process  Difference • weight minimization by filling load- bearing spaces and voids with variable density meshes, not by removing material • Can system “learn” to propose better designs
  84. 84.  A car was fitted with dozens of sensors  Sensors recorded everything that was happening to car during a drive, including the forces to which it was subjected  Resulting data - literally billions of data points - were plugged into AutoCAD’s generative design tool  Can system “learn” to propose better designs over time
  85. 85.  Accelerate generative design by noticing designers’ reactions to what systems propose  Incorporate unspoken preferences into design process  Prepare process instructions including those for robots  Use input from new digital nervous system, also known as IoT, to perceive and react intelligently to real world.
  86. 86.  Engineering schools are far ahead of other professions • Providing students with tools • Electrical Engineering helps some students understand the fundamentals of tools and develop new ones  But they rarely help students understand drivers of change, nor how it impacts work • Still too much focus on math and engineering calculations • Not enough high-level design and design projects
  87. 87.  Engineering schools need to place more emphasis on high- than low-level work  Design projects  Conceptual design  How to generate new ideas  How to deal with systems • Not just physical systems • Economics of systems, including changing economics • Competition among firms in systems
  88. 88.  AI is impacting on many types of work  Not just routine manual work  It is now impacting on routine cognitive work • Lawyers • Journalists • Accountants • Architects • Engineers
  89. 89.  Employment data doesn’t suggest that demand for work is falling • Some mismatch of demand (number working) and supply (number graduating) • Journalism and lawyers may be most affected  But work is changing • From low-level to high-level work • Low-level work is being automated High-level work requires skills in productivity enhancing tools
  90. 90.  For what types of tasks will machine learning work well?  First applications of AI were games such as Chess, Go, and Jeopardy, which have • very constrained situations • involve many routine cognitive tasks that can be better done by computers
  91. 91. But work of professions is more complex • Fewer constraints means more complex problems and more non-routine cognitive tasks • Machine learning requires constraints in order for feedback to occur • Humans can provide feedback but this type of learning will be slower Thus, elimination of low-level tasks will occur slowly, as professions move to higher-level work
  92. 92.  They need to help students understand work and how it is changing  Emphasize • high-level tasks more than low-level tasks • job opportunities and challenges  Help students • Adapt and change • Make better career decisions
  93. 93.  Professional work involves computers and Internet • When not in front of desktop or laptop computer, they are connected to Internet via smart devices  The future is high-level work • Engineers, architects, scientists must do high-level conceptual design because computers do drawings and calculations • Accountants and financial analysists must think more strategically about a business because computers do most calculations and even audits
  94. 94.  Students are taught very little about tools or the likely demand for professions • because tools and drivers of them are not published in disciplinary journals that professors emphasize  Professors follow disciplinary journals because • they are measured by publications in them • journals purportedly represent core knowledge of field  Engineering programs generally do the best • But they don’t cover future of tools and their drivers • Even electrical engineering and computer science programs discuss these tools only in special courses
  95. 95.  Help students better understand technology change and its impact on work • including free market, how it works, and technology change • Students should be learning about what is happening now and what will likely happen in the near future  These issues are not covered in history of technology courses • Recent, current and future changes are most relevant for students • Knowledge of industry and what is happening in industry is essential for helping students understand existing and future work
  96. 96.  Research and teaching addresses technology change • Impact of better integrated circuits, Internet speed and cost, and smart phones on emergence of new types of products, services, and content including new forms of productivity enhancing tools  Received NTT DoCoMo Mobile Science Award in 2004 for lifetime contributions to social science aspects of mobile communication  My course slides and group presentations are available on my slideshare accounts. •;
  97. 97.  Internet of Things internet-of-things  Bio-sensors for health care data biosensors-smart-phones-and-health-care  Better displays • displays  Virtual and augmented reality, wearable computing • computing-and-human-computer-interfaces