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Additive Manufacturing:
3D Printers Continue to
Get Better and Cheaper
NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE
MT 5009 GROUP PROJ...
Agenda – Additive manufacturing
1. What‘s about the Hype?
2. Technology, Limitations & Improvements
4. Changing the Indust...
Agenda – Additive manufacturing
1. What‘s about the Hype?
2. Technology, Limitations & Improvements
4. Changing the Indust...
Additive manufacturing (AM) announced as
Additive Manufacturing – Worth the hype?
http://www.technologyreview.com/featured...
AM – Another way to look on the hype
Is the market proving this hype?
2009 2011 2013 2015 Forecast
Google trends: Showing ...
200
500
1000
2300
1.6 3.1
6.3
13,4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Reve...
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Growthratep.a.in%
Year
Yearly growth rate
Revenue
Printers so...
AM – Impacts on the industry
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 8
• Cost-effective, less wasteful, rapid ...
Agenda – Additive manufacturing
1. What‘s about the Hype?
2. Technology, Limitations & Improvements
4. Changing the Indust...
Additive manufacturing – What to be questioned
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 10
APPROACH
• AM – Brea...
Basic principle of AM
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 11
Design
Print
Finish
A digital model of the
ob...
Multiple technology approach: High variety
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 12
Applications
Technology
...
Computing •Basis
Software •Basis
Hardware
(Technolo
gy)
•Application
depend
Materials
• Application
depend
Ecosystem – not...
 Improvement in computing technology
/software as trailblazers for AM
 Directly: AM machine
 Indirectly: supporting tec...
Improvement Drivers Development
Processing power ICs Moore’s law
Graphics capability ICs Moore’s law
Machine control MEMS,...
 Computer-aided design are basis of every AM model
 Beside improvements closed link to improvements in computing, CAD
ha...
• The first AM technology has been introduced in 1983
 Why does MIT announced it 30 years later as breakthrough?
 Why is...
Strength Surface finish Speed Cost
Today’s Limitations
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 18
http://gizmo...
Material
26%
indirect costs
74%
Energy
3%
Labor
29%
Maschining
59%
Overhead
9%
What drives the quality and costs of additi...
•Prof. Hong Minghui (NUS, Department of Electrical & Computer
Engineering, Faculty of Engineering - Laser technology group...
Why a general approach on technology and
application is not feasible?Printingspeed[cm3/h]
Laser power output [W]
Laser
Imp...
Agenda – Additive manufacturing
1. What‘s about the Hype?
2. Technology, Limitations & Improvements
4. Changing the Indust...
Continuous Liquid Interface Production
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 23
http://carbon3d.com/
The CLIP Technology
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 24
http://carbon3d.com/https://www.youtube.com/wat...
TRADITIONAL SLA CONTINUOUS PRODUCTION
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 25
CONTINUOUS MATERIAL PRODUCTIO...
1
30
35
115
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
CLIP Polyjet SLS SLA
Printers needed for production
Number
of Printers
11/12/2015 MT...
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 27
Speed Leads to Cost Reductions in Production
Task
Object: A complex...
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 28
What Drives the Speed
DLP Projector
System
”Deadzone” Material
Soft...
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 29
What Drives the Quality: Layerless Process
Isotropic Objects Smooth...
CLIP: Materials
Wide range of photocurable polymers can be used
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 30
Sof...
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 31
Partnership between
Carbon3D and Ford
Google Ventures led
the lates...
Agenda – Additive manufacturing
1. What‘s about the Hype?
2. Technology, Limitations & Improvements
4. Changing the Indust...
Case study 1
What is Selective laser melting
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 34
• Metal powder and metal wires
get ...
Better fuel nozzle by using 3D – General electric
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 35
• Must be heat re...
What drives performance?
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 36
• Increase in pulse energy
improves interl...
What drives the speed?
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 37
http://www.sciencedirect.com.libproxy1.nus.e...
Will there be higher power laser in the future?
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 38
https://www.rp-phot...
Expert forecast the same!!!
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 39
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
2013 2018 ...
What about the cost?
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 40
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2010 2013 2017
InMillionU...
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.50
2013 2018 2023
CostinEur/cm³
Cost of SLM
material labor, maschining, Labor, Energy...
Air craft engine – General electric
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 42
GE will invest 3.5 Billion Doll...
Agenda – Additive manufacturing
1. What‘s about the Hype?
2. Technology, Limitations & Improvements
4. Changing the Indust...
Why Spare Parts? Aviation Industry Example
High service level target because of expensive downtime cost
Huge amount of par...
Industries Which use 3D Printed Parts Already
Boeing:
◦ 30 3D-printed parts in the 787 Dreamliner Airplane
◦ 20000 3D-prin...
3D Printing point of view from OEM and MRO
12%
7%
40%
49%
54%
60%
None
Improved part reliability
Increased spare part opti...
Service demand not possible to
forecast with certainty
Service tradeoffs: Revenue, cost
and service performance
80/20: Onl...
Time, Location, Extent and Consequences is
Impossible to Forecast
Forecast is not accurate - How
does this affect the cost...
Airplane Industry Spare Parts: Price of 3D Printers
goes Down and Replaces DC:s
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPO...
Tradeoffs between Revenue, Cost and Performance
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 50
Current state
Stati...
20/80 Rule of Spare Parts Inventory
Category percentage of
Item
sales profit inventory
cost
fast moving A -part 20% 80% sm...
Supply Chain Costs with Adaption of 3D Printing
Product
Category
3D Printing
Adaption
%Saving
A-part 10% 70%
B-part 25% 78...
Questions???
Q&A
Thank u lah
Dankeschön
Kiitos
Appendix and additional data
APPENDIX
Appendix and additional data
1. Additive Manufacturing Overview
2. Additive Manufacturing Technology and Materials
5. CLIP...
History of additive manufacturing
1984 / 1986
First AM approach
Stereolithographic (STL) /
AM technology got patented
1988...
Additive manufacturing
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 57
SignificanceMarketImpact
• Additive manufact...
Additive manufacturing market (III)
1.1 1.2
1.7
2.2 2.5
4
6
7.5
10.8
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
inBillionUS$
3D service, products and...
Additive manufacturing market (IV)
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 59
http://blog.luxresearchinc.com/b...
Additive manufacturing market – conclusion
1. Even market data differs depending on the institute conducted the
research, ...
Gartner Hype cycle
• Gartner Hype Cycles provide a graphic representation of the maturity and
adoption of technologies and...
Hype cycle for emerging industries
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 62
http://www.gartner.com.libproxy1...
Hype cycle for additive manufacturing
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 63
http://www.gartner.com.libpro...
Additive manufacturing – market adaption
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 64
Appendix and additional data
1. Additive Manufacturing Overview
2. Additive Manufacturing Technology and Materials
5. CLIP...
Additive manufacturing
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 66
Technology
ExtrusionLaser/LED
Stereolithogra...
Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM)
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 67
• A wire shaped material is melted
...
Stereolithography (SL)
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 68
Pro & Con
• Based on photo polymerization
• ...
Selective laser melting
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 69
• Metal powder and metal wires
get melted
•...
Selective laser sintering
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 70
• High power laser fixes powders in
a sol...
Additive manufacturing – materials
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 71
Commonly used materials
Plastics...
Application of Selective Laser Sintering
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 72
Materials Applications
Met...
Application of Selective Laser Melting (SLM)
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 73
Materials Applications...
Application of Stereolithography (SLA)
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 74
Materials Applications
Epoxy...
Application of Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM)
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 75
Materials Applicatio...
Materials Advantages Limitations
Plastics • Design flexibility
• Biodegradable in case of
bioplastics
• Durable
• Availabi...
Material used for AM
Photopolymers
56%
Thermoplastics
40%
Thermoplastic
powders
2%
Metal Powders
1%
Others
1%
Material use...
Additive manufacturing - materials
0 200 400 600
Inkjet materials
Metal powders
Thermoplastic powders
Solid thermoplastics...
Appendix and additional data
1. Additive Manufacturing Overview
2. Additive Manufacturing Technology and Materials
5. CLIP...
Lasers used in Additive Manufacturing
•Stereolithography (SLA) – UV laser (wavelength:
100-400 nm)
•Selective Laser Sinter...
Improvements in Average Selling Price (ASP) and Power of
Semiconductor Lasers
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORT...
Laser market
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 82/www.laserfocusworld.com/articles/print/volume-51/issue...
Laser prospective developments and synergies
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 83
• the power output inc...
that a recent changing
momentum has happened
with influence the market
in sustainable way.
Conclusion
that the additive
ma...
Additive manufacturing as disruptive innovation
• Even data for additive manufacturing is hardly available, additive
manuf...
Appendix and additional data
1. Additive Manufacturing Overview
2. Additive Manufacturing Technology and Materials
5. CLIP...
•Introduced in August 2015 by MIT
•Technology is based on extrusion and
Fused Deposition Modelling (FDM)
•Printed material...
B = The kiln cartridge
1 = The crucible
2 = Heating elements
3 = The nozzle
4 = The thermocouple
5 = Feed access lid
C = T...
Current possible applications:
Design: Vases and Glasses
Visions from the G3DP Team:
Solar transmittance window: can contr...
Contrains Leads Possible solutions
Extruded glass stuck
covering the nozzle tip
Deviation from desired
shapes and uneven g...
Appendix and additional data
1. Additive Manufacturing Overview
2. Additive Manufacturing Technology and Materials
4. CLIP...
UV market
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 92
http://www.laserfocusworld.com/articles/2013/03/uv-led-ma...
Teflon AF 2400
• Highly oxygen permeable
• 990 barrers
• Great optical properties
• Lowest index of refraction of any
poly...
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 94
Dynamics Behind the Speed: UV-LED based DLP
Projector
0
2
4
6
8
10
...
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 95
DLP System For 3D-Printing
http://www.ti.com/lit/sg/dlpt019c/dlpt01...
11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 96
Speed Enabling Point-of-Need Manufacturing
25 to 100 x Faster Than ...
•Layerless process provides large
potential
•Feature sizes from 10 microns to
1000 microns with complex
geometries
•New so...
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Additive Manufacturing 3D printing

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These slides use concepts from my (Jeff Funk) course entitled analyzing hi-tech opportunities to show how the cost and performance of additive manufacturing/3D printing is experiencing rapid improvements and thus it is becoming economically feasible for many new applications. All 3D printers have benefited from improvement sin microprocessors and sensors, which have enabled better process control. One new and one existing technique and the impact of improvements in electronic components on the performance and cost of additive manufacturing are discussed. First, continuous liquid interface production is a new technique that utilizes a unique design of digital light processing, a deadzone, and an oxygen permeable window. Improvements in the resolution of DLP, a form of MEMS, are occurring as smaller feature sizes are achieved, in the same way that increases in the number of transistors are achieved as transistor gate lengths are reduced. Second, an existing approach, Selective laser sintering, experiences improvements as higher powered lasers emerge. This technique melts metal powder and wires with an Ytterbium fiber laser whose power capabilities continue to be improved. This technique has already enabled GE to reduce the number of parts for an engine nozzle from 18 to 1, the weight by 25%, and the costs by a similar amount. The number of applications for SLA is expected to grow as the technique is improved through the use of higher powered lasers.

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Additive Manufacturing 3D printing

  1. 1. Additive Manufacturing: 3D Printers Continue to Get Better and Cheaper NATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF SINGAPORE MT 5009 GROUP PROJECT JANI ADOLFSSON JHOANAMEL MANALILI JULIUS RIIKONEN JOHANNES NOEKE JONI SALMELA TOBIAS KOBOLD
  2. 2. Agenda – Additive manufacturing 1. What‘s about the Hype? 2. Technology, Limitations & Improvements 4. Changing the Industry: Spare Parts 3. Cases: Dynamics Driving Technology Changes b) SLM: GE’s fuel nozzle a) Game changing speed: CLIP 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 2
  3. 3. Agenda – Additive manufacturing 1. What‘s about the Hype? 2. Technology, Limitations & Improvements 4. Changing the Industry: Spare Parts 3. Cases: Dynamics Driving Technology Changes b) SLM: GE’s fuel nozzle a) Game changing speed: CLIP 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 3
  4. 4. Additive manufacturing (AM) announced as Additive Manufacturing – Worth the hype? http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/513691/prenatal-dna-sequencing/ http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/513716/additive-manufacturing/ “AM has a growing market capability and it is expected to increase its market share rapidly to about 40% by 2015.” 3D printing provides manufacturers with the ability to compete by creating, and the opportunity to turn product development into a core strength” 3D printing “has the potential to revolutionize the way we do almost everything” US president Barack Obama in 2013 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 4
  5. 5. AM – Another way to look on the hype Is the market proving this hype? 2009 2011 2013 2015 Forecast Google trends: Showing how often a particular search-term was searched 3D Printing https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=3d%20printing 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 5
  6. 6. 200 500 1000 2300 1.6 3.1 6.3 13,4 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Revenueinbillion$ Printerssoldinthousands Year Printers sold Revenue CAGR(2015-2018) Printers sold: 91% Revenue: 88% 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 6 http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiscolumbus/2014/12/18/gartner-forecasts-the-3d-printer- market-will-be-13-4b-by-2018/ Additive Manufacturing market (I)
  7. 7. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Growthratep.a.in% Year Yearly growth rate Revenue Printers sold 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 7 Enormous market growth will continue at least for the next 4-6 years Additive manufacturing is or will become economically feasible http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiscolumbus/2014/12/18/gartner-forecasts-the-3d-printer- market-will-be-13-4b-by-2018/ Additive Manufacturing market (II)
  8. 8. AM – Impacts on the industry 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 8 • Cost-effective, less wasteful, rapid manufacturing of parts or components that can be customized based • Development an agile manufacturing which will reduce the lead time from conception to the production (Time-to-Market) • 3D printers have chance to revolutionize low-volume manufacturing of complex parts • Usage in biomedical application, customized manufacturing and by application in automobile and aerospace. PossibleImpacts
  9. 9. Agenda – Additive manufacturing 1. What‘s about the Hype? 2. Technology, Limitations & Improvements 4. Changing the Industry: Spare Parts 3. Cases: Dynamics Driving Technology Changes b) SLM: GE’s fuel nozzle a) Game changing speed: CLIP 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 9
  10. 10. Additive manufacturing – What to be questioned 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 10 APPROACH • AM – Breakthrough? • What are the cost and performance dynamics of 3D printers? • How does these dynamics impact on applications? • Why do the economics of 3D printing change?
  11. 11. Basic principle of AM 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 11 Design Print Finish A digital model of the object is issued and converted into a STL. file 3D Printer slices file into numerous digital cross-sectional, and builds the model by joining together successive layers Final 3D printed model is cleaned to remove overhung material and is polished/painted and made ready for use
  12. 12. Multiple technology approach: High variety 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 12 Applications Technology Materials Automotive Aerospace Consumer Medical Industrial Research Stereo Lithography (SLA) Laser sintering Selective laser melting Fused Disposition Melting CLIP Polymers Metals and Alloys Powders Thermoplastics Ceramics Glass
  13. 13. Computing •Basis Software •Basis Hardware (Technolo gy) •Application depend Materials • Application depend Ecosystem – not only one technology AM as a result of improvements in different technology sectors http://techcrunch.com/2015/10/28/understanding-the-3d-printing-ecosystem-breaking-it-down-and-building-it-up/ 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 13
  14. 14.  Improvement in computing technology /software as trailblazers for AM  Directly: AM machine  Indirectly: supporting technology  Fields of improvement affecting AM  Processing power  Graphics capability  Machine control  Networking AM – Computing as trailblazer Gibson, Rosen, Strucker: Additive manufacturing technologies - rapid prototyping to direct digital manufacturing. New York: Springer, 2012 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 14 General integration of an AM machine
  15. 15. Improvement Drivers Development Processing power ICs Moore’s law Graphics capability ICs Moore’s law Machine control MEMS, Sensors More than Moore Networking IoT, WiFi Explosion Computing as trailblazer http://softsupplier.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/07/image010.jpg http://tarrysingh.com/2014/07/fog-computing-happens-when-big-data-analytics-marries-internet-of-things/ 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 15
  16. 16.  Computer-aided design are basis of every AM model  Beside improvements closed link to improvements in computing, CAD has improvement:  Realism  Usability and user interface  Speed  Accuracy  Complexity Further improvement through  open sourcing Software / CAD as trailblazer Improvements are aligned with improvements in computing Google trends: 3D Printing open source 2011 2013 2015 https://www.google.com/trends/explore#q=3d%20printing%20open%20source Gibson, Rosen, Strucker: Additive manufacturing technologies - rapid prototyping to direct digital manufacturing. New York: Springer, 2012 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 16
  17. 17. • The first AM technology has been introduced in 1983  Why does MIT announced it 30 years later as breakthrough?  Why is AM hyped for the last 3 years? Computing & Software as trailblazer 2016 - 20201983 2013 • Improvements in computing and software as basis for all AM technologies • Ability to start entering the market • The prove of being a breakthrough technology will be made on the technology and application level What will be the next improvements? 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 17
  18. 18. Strength Surface finish Speed Cost Today’s Limitations 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 18 http://gizmodo.com/why-3d-printing-is-overhyped-i-should-know-i-do-it-fo-508176750 1. Improvements in surface fineness 2. Increase in detail rendition by thinner layers 3. Improvements of material properties and range 4. Cut down of construction time 5. Elimination of rework 6. Reduce cost IMPROVEMENTS
  19. 19. Material 26% indirect costs 74% Energy 3% Labor 29% Maschining 59% Overhead 9% What drives the quality and costs of additive manufacturing? 11/12/2015 Power source (Laser, LED) MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 19 Integrated circuits Sensors Power source are the key technology and a big cost driver Cost and quality drivers Focus on power source and materials to enhance improvements choice of material is crucial for the price http://www.rolandberger.com/media/pdf/Roland_Berger_Additive_Manufacturing_20131129.pdf
  20. 20. •Prof. Hong Minghui (NUS, Department of Electrical & Computer Engineering, Faculty of Engineering - Laser technology group) •Q: Will Laser drive the cost and improvement development concerning AM? •Example: • 3D Printing device mainly based on lasers for a specific application Hypothesis: Cost and improvement of the 3D Printing device are directly related to lasers Assumption: Melting point properties do not affect application Why a general approach on technology and application is not feasible? 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 20
  21. 21. Why a general approach on technology and application is not feasible?Printingspeed[cm3/h] Laser power output [W] Laser Improved laser Improvement in laser power Improvement in printing speed 1 2 Printingtemperature[°C] Laser power output [W] Laser Improved laser 3 Meltingpoint[°C] /Laseroutput[W] Printing speed [cm3/h] New material Material used Laser Low-tech laser General conclusion concerning cost and improvement dynamics of 3D printing can not be drawn. Investigation has to be made for each • Technology • Application 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 21
  22. 22. Agenda – Additive manufacturing 1. What‘s about the Hype? 2. Technology, Limitations & Improvements 4. Changing the Industry: Spare Parts 3. Cases: Dynamics Driving Technology Changes b) SLM: GE’s fuel nozzle a) Game changing speed: CLIP 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 22
  23. 23. Continuous Liquid Interface Production 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 23 http://carbon3d.com/
  24. 24. The CLIP Technology 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 24 http://carbon3d.com/https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8uD0d1IPsF4&list=PLulOCUoJY0qqmc2wD_3EUP8Mm9T0IZHg_&index=4
  25. 25. TRADITIONAL SLA CONTINUOUS PRODUCTION 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 25 CONTINUOUS MATERIAL PRODUCTION Carbon 3D: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mMkhVt_IWs4FSL3D: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SkIMbio6El0
  26. 26. 1 30 35 115 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 CLIP Polyjet SLS SLA Printers needed for production Number of Printers 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 26 The Game Changing Speed This 51 mm diameter complex shaped structure was produced with CLIP in 6,5 minutes SLA SLS Polyjet CLIP Speed (mm/h) 4 15 17 471 0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300 325 350 375 400 425 450 475 500 Speed(mm/h) Speed Comparison Speed (mm/h) The speeds over 1000 mm/h are achievable when resolution is sacrificed http://carbon3d.com/
  27. 27. 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 27 Speed Leads to Cost Reductions in Production Task Object: A complex ball structure Height: 50 mm Pieces: 10 Time available: 1h 10 5 3 2 1 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 50 100 200 250 500 #ofPrintersNeeded Speed (mm/h) Benefits of the Speed in Production # of Printers Needed $- $50,000 $100,000 $150,000 $200,000 $250,000 50 100 200 250 500 CostoftheAssets Speed (mm/h) Total Cost of the Assets Total Cost of the Assets Assuming the printer price 20 000 $
  28. 28. 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 28 What Drives the Speed DLP Projector System ”Deadzone” Material Software Improvements in - DMD micromirrors (MEMS) - UV-LEDs Improvements in - Materials - Implementing thin films O2
  29. 29. 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 29 What Drives the Quality: Layerless Process Isotropic Objects Smooth Surface Finish What Drives the Quality - High resolution DLP system - Layerless process due to ”deadzone” formation - Software controlling the parameters - Material choice
  30. 30. CLIP: Materials Wide range of photocurable polymers can be used 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 30 Soft, elastic materials Very rigid, impact resistant Bioplastics Polymers reinfroced with Carbon Nanotubes or Nanofibres
  31. 31. 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 31 Partnership between Carbon3D and Ford Google Ventures led the latest $100 M Funding round • Founded 2013, Silicon Valley • Hardware, software & molecular science • Funding received: $ 141 M • Patented CLIP Technology
  32. 32. Agenda – Additive manufacturing 1. What‘s about the Hype? 2. Technology, Limitations & Improvements 4. Changing the Industry: Spare Parts 3. Cases: Dynamics Driving Technology Changes b) SLM: GE’s fuel nozzle a) Game changing speed: CLIP 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 32
  33. 33. Case study 1
  34. 34. What is Selective laser melting 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 34 • Metal powder and metal wires get melted by a Ytterbium fiber laser • Adding layer by layer • Material: Stainless steal, Titan, special alloys + physical behaviour like in conventional production How it works: Schubert “rapid prototyping and rapid tooling” (2014)
  35. 35. Better fuel nozzle by using 3D – General electric 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 35 • Must be heat resistant so made of strong alloys • 1 part instead of 18 parts • fuel nozzle can be 25% lighter and more reliable because of the shape • Optimal shape - 5 times higher durability • time reduced by 66% www.geglobalresearch.com/innovation/3d-printing-creates-new-parts-aircraft-engines http://3dprintingreviews.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/ge-aviation-to-grow-better-fuel-nozzles.html
  36. 36. What drives performance? 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 36 • Increase in pulse energy improves interlayer connection/strength • The absolute pulse energy depends on the material Laser Power Material No other material with lower melting point possible for the fuel nozzle, as heat resistance is essential New material - less laser power Strength!!! Kietzmann, J. Business horizont (2015) Thiesse, F. (2015)
  37. 37. What drives the speed? 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 37 http://www.sciencedirect.com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/science/article/pii/S0924013607004712 • more material can be bonded at the same time. • causes higher printing speed • higher specific energy density is necessary otherwise the material does not bond properly and gets weak Higher Laser power needed x x Thiesse, F. (2015)
  38. 38. Will there be higher power laser in the future? 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 38 https://www.rp-photonics.com/highpowerfiberlasers.html 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 PowerOutput[KW] Power output development of fiber laser Increase in laser power will enable higher printing speed
  39. 39. Expert forecast the same!!! 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 39 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 2013 2018 2023 Speedincm³/h Speed of SLM Key improvements • Higher accuracy and power of lasers • Faster computing • Less post-processing effort DMRC survey of 75 AM experts: build speed will at least quadruple by 2018 http://www.rolandberger.com/media/pdf/Roland_Berger_Additive_Manufacturing_20131129.pdf
  40. 40. What about the cost? 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 40 0 500 1000 1500 2000 2010 2013 2017 InMillionUS$ Market of Fiber Lasers 20% 80% Laser Market in 2013 Fiber Market Remaining Market 28% 72% Laser Market in 2017 Fiber Market http://www.photonics.com/Article.aspx?AID =57806http://optics.org/news/6/7/37 Economies of scale so lasers will get cheaper
  41. 41. 0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00 3.50 2013 2018 2023 CostinEur/cm³ Cost of SLM material labor, maschining, Labor, Energy, Overhead 3.1 1.6 1.1 Prospective cost reduction of SLM 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 41 • Increasing competition for powder supply will reduce today's markups • increasing volume will reduce production costs. (EOS) http://www.rolandberger.com/media/pdf/Roland_Berger_Additive_Manufacturing_20131129.pdf
  42. 42. Air craft engine – General electric 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 42 GE will invest 3.5 Billion Dollar in AM until 2020 http://3dprintingreviews.blogspot.co.uk/2013/06/ge-aviation-to-grow-better-fuel-nozzles.html 0% 500% 1000% 1500% 2000% 2014 2020 100% 2000% Speedcomparedto2014 GE's development of printing Speed
  43. 43. Agenda – Additive manufacturing 1. What‘s about the Hype? 2. Technology, Limitations & Improvements 4. Changing the Industry: Spare Parts 3. Cases: Dynamics Driving Technology Changes b) SLM: GE’s fuel nozzle a) Game changing speed: CLIP 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 43
  44. 44. Why Spare Parts? Aviation Industry Example High service level target because of expensive downtime cost Huge amount of parts - > Extremely expensive supply chain, 400 000 USD per aircraft annually 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 44
  45. 45. Industries Which use 3D Printed Parts Already Boeing: ◦ 30 3D-printed parts in the 787 Dreamliner Airplane ◦ 20000 3D-printed parts for 10 different military and commercial airplanes General Motors: ◦ 85000 fuel nozzles for new Leap jet engines ◦ Expanding ist 3D printing stuff ◦ GE Aviation wants to produce 100000 additive parts by 2020 Airbus: ◦ 1000 aircraft 3D printed parts for their first Airbus A350XWB 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 45
  46. 46. 3D Printing point of view from OEM and MRO 12% 7% 40% 49% 54% 60% None Improved part reliability Increased spare part options (e.g. PMA or STC availability) Improved part availability Lower investment in inventory (e.g. parts, warehousing) Lower cost for replacement parts What benefits might the successful deployment of 3D printing technology bring to airline? 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 46 Oliver Wyman, MRO Survey 2014
  47. 47. Service demand not possible to forecast with certainty Service tradeoffs: Revenue, cost and service performance 80/20: Only 20 percent of spare parts used frequently 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 47 What Are the Challenges in Spare Part Industry
  48. 48. Time, Location, Extent and Consequences is Impossible to Forecast Forecast is not accurate - How does this affect the cost? ◦ Time: Need components have to be available every time -> ◦ Location: Components need to be available near in every critical location ◦ Extent and consequence: Increases the number of SKU:s classified as critical 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 48 OEM DC Local DC Expected demand Total Inventory Cost = Number of Different SKUs x Volume of each SKU x Number of Locations
  49. 49. Airplane Industry Spare Parts: Price of 3D Printers goes Down and Replaces DC:s 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 49 OEM DC Local DC Expected demand Current situation OEM DC Local DC Expected demand Economically feasible today OEM DC Local DC Expected demand Economically feasible in near future Total Inventory Cost With 3D = Number Different SKUs x Volume of each SKU x Number of Locations
  50. 50. Tradeoffs between Revenue, Cost and Performance 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 50 Current state Static asset management Dynamic asset management DAM 3D + DAM Service level Asset investment and service costs
  51. 51. 20/80 Rule of Spare Parts Inventory Category percentage of Item sales profit inventory cost fast moving A -part 20% 80% small friction slow moving B-part 50% 15% high slow moving C-part 30% 5% high 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 51 20% are being used frequently, yet the availability of the parts should be 100%, which cause high inventory management cost. Example: Airbus in Hamburg-Fuhlsbüttel is using only 80% a few years out of 120.000 parts. With the increasing numbers of produced aircraft models, slow moving parts will increase in number and this problem will be more urgent. Rapid manufacturing and ist impact on supply chain management (2004) – M. Walter, J. Holmström, H. Yrjölä
  52. 52. Supply Chain Costs with Adaption of 3D Printing Product Category 3D Printing Adaption %Saving A-part 10% 70% B-part 25% 78% C-part 60% 85% 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 52 $- $5.00 $10.00 $15.00 $20.00 $25.00 C-Part B-Part A-Part Total Supply Chain Cost Comparison by Product Category Current 3D Printing Impact of 3D printing on global supply chains by 2020, Bhasin, Varun; Bodla, Muhammad Raheel; 2014 Slow moving parts will be adopted largely and could save up to 85% of total supply chain cost, whereas fast moving parts adaption is low.
  53. 53. Questions??? Q&A Thank u lah Dankeschön Kiitos
  54. 54. Appendix and additional data APPENDIX
  55. 55. Appendix and additional data 1. Additive Manufacturing Overview 2. Additive Manufacturing Technology and Materials 5. CLIP 4. 3D Printing for Glass 3. Laser market
  56. 56. History of additive manufacturing 1984 / 1986 First AM approach Stereolithographic (STL) / AM technology got patented 1988 AM technology was made available for public 1996 The term “3D printer” was first used 2000 First high definition printer 2006 First self replicating 3D printer was developed 2010 The term “Additive manufacturing” and “3D printing” were used as synonyms 2013 Announced as breakthrough technology by MIT 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 56 http://blog.harbinger- systems.com/2014/11/3d-printing-captivates- the-consumer-market/
  57. 57. Additive manufacturing 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 57 SignificanceMarketImpact • Additive manufacturing enables cost- effective, less wasteful, rapid manufacturing of parts or components that can be customized based • It becomes possible to develop an agile manufacturing which will reduce the lead time from conception to the production • Additive manufacturing has a growing market capability and it is expected to increase its market share rapidly to about 40% by 2015. • It is expected to see wider usage in biomedical application, customized manufacturing and by application in automobile and aerospace.
  58. 58. Additive manufacturing market (III) 1.1 1.2 1.7 2.2 2.5 4 6 7.5 10.8 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 inBillionUS$ 3D service, products and materials market Expected growth rate of 30% 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 58 0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 2012 2017E #ofunitinstalledink 3D Printer installed CAGR: 95% http://www.forbes.com/sites/louiscolumbus/2014/08/09/roundup-of-3d-printing-market-forecasts-and-estimates-2014/
  59. 59. Additive manufacturing market (IV) 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 59 http://blog.luxresearchinc.com/blog/coveragearea/advanced-materials/page/2/
  60. 60. Additive manufacturing market – conclusion 1. Even market data differs depending on the institute conducted the research, some general conclusion can be drawn:  A rapid market growth can be expected either this year or next year  This enormous market growth will continue at least for the next 4-6 years  Additive manufacturing is or will become economically feasible 2. But this market development rises many questions which have to be answered in the next years:  As “some new technologies destroy both an existing economic system and create a new one (Schumpeter, 1942)”, the future will show how Additive manufacturing will diffuse in our life, how it will affect exciting industries and how it will improve those. 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 60
  61. 61. Gartner Hype cycle • Gartner Hype Cycles provide a graphic representation of the maturity and adoption of technologies and applications • Gartner Hype Cycle methodology gives you a view of how a technology or application will evolve over time • Each Hype Cycle drills down into the five key phases of a technology's life cycle.  Technology Trigger  Peak of Inflated Expectations  Trough of Disillusionment  Slope of Enlightenment  Plateau of Productivity 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 61 http://www.gartner.com/technology/research/methodologies/hype-cycle.jsp#
  62. 62. Hype cycle for emerging industries 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 62 http://www.gartner.com.libproxy1.nus. edu.sg/document/3100227?ref=QuickS earch&sthkw=hype%20cycle%20emergi ng%20technology&refval=157030558& qid=dfda72a24788721c4351d7a1af6b3e 21
  63. 63. Hype cycle for additive manufacturing 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 63 http://www.gartner.com.libproxy1.nus.edu.sg/document/3100228?ref=Qu ickSearch&sthkw=Laser&refval=157030440&qid=af5f123168b20920048c1 09e0b1d5728
  64. 64. Additive manufacturing – market adaption 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 64
  65. 65. Appendix and additional data 1. Additive Manufacturing Overview 2. Additive Manufacturing Technology and Materials 5. CLIP 4. 3D Printing for Glass 3. Laser market
  66. 66. Additive manufacturing 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 66 Technology ExtrusionLaser/LED Stereolithography SL Selective laser sintering SLS Carbon 3D Selective laser melting Fused deposition modeling FDM
  67. 67. Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM) 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 67 • A wire shaped material is melted in a high temperature nozzle • Plotter mechanism • Hard layers of plastic or metal filaments can be created • Multiple jetting possible Part Building platform Nozzle FDM - Head Coil + low cost + Dual jetting possible - Slow process - Inconsistent material due to the construction in layers How it works: Pro & Con
  68. 68. Stereolithography (SL) 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 68 Pro & Con • Based on photo polymerization • Photo reactive resin is cured by using UV laser + Complex geometries are possible + High resolution - Usually time consuming How it works:
  69. 69. Selective laser melting 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 69 • Metal powder and metal wires get melted • Adding layer by layer • Stainless steal, Titan, special alloys + physical behaviour like in conventional production - expensive How it works: Pro & Con
  70. 70. Selective laser sintering 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 70 • High power laser fixes powders in a solid bond • Plastic, glass powder, ceramic • Powder functions also a supporting material + Complex structures are possible - expensive How it works: Pro & Con
  71. 71. Additive manufacturing – materials 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 71 Commonly used materials Plastics Metals Others ThermosetsComposites Aluminium Ceramics Bioplastics Thermoplastics Stainless Steel Titanium ResinsPhotopolymers
  72. 72. Application of Selective Laser Sintering 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 72 Materials Applications Metal alloys Composites Ceramics Carbon fibers Engineering plastics
  73. 73. Application of Selective Laser Melting (SLM) 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 73 Materials Applications Stainless steel and tool steel Titanium Aluminum Other metal alloys
  74. 74. Application of Stereolithography (SLA) 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 74 Materials Applications Epoxy based photopolymers Thermoplastics (ABS)
  75. 75. Application of Fused Deposition Modeling (FDM) 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 75 Materials Applications Thermoplastics (ABS) Polyphenylsulfone (PPSF) Polycarbonate (PC) Ceramics
  76. 76. Materials Advantages Limitations Plastics • Design flexibility • Biodegradable in case of bioplastics • Durable • Availability of colors • Limited weathering resistance • Flammable with high smoke generation • Possibility to warping Metals • Strong • High weathering resistance • Corrosion resistance • Low design flexibility • Costly Ceramics • Strong but flexible • Availability of colors • Low detail • Rigid compared to other materials Precious Metals • Strong but flexible • High detail • Can be plated • Costly Composites • High mechanical strength • Can be used for intricate design • Good surface finish • Difficult to work with due to complicated interlocking assemblies and joints Materials comparative analysis 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 76
  77. 77. Material used for AM Photopolymers 56% Thermoplastics 40% Thermoplastic powders 2% Metal Powders 1% Others 1% Material used for additive manufacturing 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 77
  78. 78. Additive manufacturing - materials 0 200 400 600 Inkjet materials Metal powders Thermoplastic powders Solid thermoplastics Photopolymers Revenue in million US$ The material used market 2013 2025E 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 78 http://www.technologyreview.com/news/530721/how-to-build-3-d-printing/
  79. 79. Appendix and additional data 1. Additive Manufacturing Overview 2. Additive Manufacturing Technology and Materials 5. CLIP 4. 3D Printing for Glass 3. Laser market
  80. 80. Lasers used in Additive Manufacturing •Stereolithography (SLA) – UV laser (wavelength: 100-400 nm) •Selective Laser Sintering (SLS) – High power laser/IR laser (wavelength: 9-11 µm) e.g. CO2 laser •Selective Laser Melting (SLM) – High power laser/IR laser (wavelength: 1030-1100 nm) e.g. Ytterbium fiber laser 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 80
  81. 81. Improvements in Average Selling Price (ASP) and Power of Semiconductor Lasers 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 81 10 100 1000 1 10 100 1000 10000 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 CWpowerpercm-bar(W) IndustryASP($perCWWatt) Year Source: Martinson R 2007. Industrial markets beckon for high-power diode lasers, Optics, October: 26-27. 9xx laser
  82. 82. Laser market 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 82/www.laserfocusworld.com/articles/print/volume-51/issue- 4.24 4.15 3.96 4.23 4.39 3.91 4.31 4.68 4.97 5.36 0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 InBillion$ Laser revenues Non-Diode Diode • Laser market is growing constantly with a yearly growth rate of around 4% -6% • Due to the market growth, economy of scale is likely to happen, which will drive down the cost of each unit
  83. 83. Laser prospective developments and synergies 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 83 • the power output increases • Beam spot size reduces • Accuracy of melting spot increases • Prices go down Laser technology - steady improvements Additive manufacturing market: Market is growing tremendously Laser market: Revenue is increasing constantly and simultaneously, the market is growing SYNERGY EFFECTS • A growing market in Additive manufacturing promotes the laser market • Economies of scale lead to price reduction of the laser technology • Cheaper laser technology promotes the AM-market
  84. 84. that a recent changing momentum has happened with influence the market in sustainable way. Conclusion that the additive manufacturing is benefitting from the laser improvement rates and cost reduction. 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 84 The price for additive manufacturing has dropped, while quality of the technology remains the same The price for additive manufacturing remains the same while the quality is improving. The price for additive manufacturing is dropping, while the technology is improving  DISRUPTIVE INNOVATION 1 2 3 Extremely high growth rate of additive manufacturing market imply Due to Moore’s law, this makes additive manufacturing widely used. Strategies
  85. 85. Additive manufacturing as disruptive innovation • Even data for additive manufacturing is hardly available, additive manufacturing has a high likelihood to be disruptive. •  “It has a strong reputation for generating disruptive technology” http://www.motorship.com/news101/engines-and-propulsion/3d-printed-nozzle-ring Indicators ◦ Dropping price ◦ Increasing quality ◦ Rapidly growing market 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 85 Has AM the potential displaces an existing technology, a product or a service partly or completely? “An innovation transforms an existing market or sector by introducing simplicity, convenience, accessibility, and affordability where complication and high cost are the status quo” http://www.christenseninstitute.org/key-concepts/disruptive-innovation-2/
  86. 86. Appendix and additional data 1. Additive Manufacturing Overview 2. Additive Manufacturing Technology and Materials 5. CLIP 4. 3D Printing for Glass 3. Laser market
  87. 87. •Introduced in August 2015 by MIT •Technology is based on extrusion and Fused Deposition Modelling (FDM) •Printed materials: Soda lime glass and Pyrex glass •What made this possible? • Smart heating system • Nozzle material Additive Manufacturing of Transparent Glass = G3DP
  88. 88. B = The kiln cartridge 1 = The crucible 2 = Heating elements 3 = The nozzle 4 = The thermocouple 5 = Feed access lid C = The crucible kiln D = The nozzle kiln Heating and nozzle system section
  89. 89. Current possible applications: Design: Vases and Glasses Visions from the G3DP Team: Solar transmittance window: can control solar transmittance due to the production availabilty of a complex surface on the inside as well as the outside Architectural possibilities: • An all-glass building with internal channels and networks for airflow and water circulation • An all-in-one building skin made of glass Possibilities and applications for the Industry
  90. 90. Contrains Leads Possible solutions Extruded glass stuck covering the nozzle tip Deviation from desired shapes and uneven glass distribution • Creating new nozzle geometry • Material • Coating • Face cooling • Addition of sacrificial foil Software environment improvements • Full control of printing process • Direct control over the kiln’s temperature •Merge of separate pieces of software Frequently refilling of the crucible Quality of the print Active material feed system in form of a plunger or of compressed air Small pressure drop generated by the gravity fed system • Printing speed • Resolution • Preventing scaling down the nozzle diameter Manual activation of start, stop and cut the glass filament Quality Automating the compressed air and torching Limitations/Contrains
  91. 91. Appendix and additional data 1. Additive Manufacturing Overview 2. Additive Manufacturing Technology and Materials 4. CLIP 3. 3D Printing for Glass 3. Laser market
  92. 92. UV market 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 92 http://www.laserfocusworld.com/articles/2013/03/uv-led-market-43percent-cagr.html 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 MarketsizeinMillionUS$ 87% 13% UV lamp market UV LED market 65% 35% UV lamp market UV LED market • The total UV market is growing with a CAGR (2012-2017) of 34%. While the traditional UV lamp market is growing by a CAGR of 10%, the UV LED market is booming with a CAGR of 43% • Especially, the market growth of UV LED is likely based on improvements in quality and/or decreasing costs • This technology improvement or cost reduction will significantly impact Additive Manufacturing
  93. 93. Teflon AF 2400 • Highly oxygen permeable • 990 barrers • Great optical properties • Lowest index of refraction of any polymer • UV transparent • Chemical inertness and good mechanical properties • Very expensive • 100 $ / g 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 93 Dynamics Behind the Speed: Oxygen Permeable Membrane http://www.google.com/patents/US7914852  Application of thin films of less expensive materials like PET O2 http://www.soarnol.com/eng/solution/solution040507.html EVOH
  94. 94. 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 94 Dynamics Behind the Speed: UV-LED based DLP Projector 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 AveragePrice($) Year Average Price for LED Lightsource, Global, 2012- 2019 Average Price ($) Source: Frost & Sullivan http://www.radtech.org/uvledbook/RadTech_eBook1_UVLED.pdf Jeff Funk: Source: Clark Ngyuen, August and September 2011 Berkeley lectures TI’s DLP9000 - > 4 M micromirrors - 2560x1600 pixels High speed, power and resolution http://eecatalog.com/sensors/2014/10/02/integrated-mems-is-powering-the- internet-of-moving-things/
  95. 95. 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 95 DLP System For 3D-Printing http://www.ti.com/lit/sg/dlpt019c/dlpt019c.pdf
  96. 96. 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 96 Speed Enabling Point-of-Need Manufacturing 25 to 100 x Faster Than Traditional SLA Techniques DentistryPersonalized Medicine http://nextbigfuture.com/2015/07/carbon-3d-provides-more-information-on.html(Carbon 3D)
  97. 97. •Layerless process provides large potential •Feature sizes from 10 microns to 1000 microns with complex geometries •New sort of sensor technologies • Lab on a chip • MEMS •New drug delivery systems 11/12/2015 MT5009 ANALYZING HIGH-TECH OPPORTUNITIES 97 Reductions in Scale: Microfabrication http://www.chromatographytechniques.com/articles/2011/12/microfluidics-evolution http://www.che.ncsu.edu/display/pages/desimone-clip.pdf http://www.rsc.org/chemistryworld/News/2008/January/16010801.asp

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