El 12 de noviembre de 2015 dedicamos una jornada en la Fundación Ramón Areces a analizar la actual situación del Ártico. El Simposio Internacional se ocupó de las oportunidades y riesgos derivados del cambio climático. En este encuentro participaron expertos de Canadá, Estados Unidos, Finlandia, Noruega, Suecia, Alemania, Portugal y España.

1. Arctic Sea Ice and Climate
Julienne Stroeve

2. No, Arctic sea ice is not going to be
okay The Washington Post, July 20, 2015
Poster child for climate change?
Extreme Arctic sea ice melt
forces thousands of walruses
ashore in Alaska
theguardian, August 27,
2015
Arctic sea ice hits record low –
Extreme weather to come? National
Geographic, August 29, 2012
Arctic summers ice-free by 2013,
December 12, 2007
B B C

3. What is sea ice?
• Frozen surface of the ocean –
originates within ocean
 Does not include land ice
(glaciers, ice sheets)
 Does not include other floating
ice (ice shelves, icebergs)
 If sea ice melts, sea level will not
rise
NOAA
Pancake Ice
Ridged Ice Multiyear Ice
Ice Floes

4. Just to be clear, sea ice is not icebergs!
Courtesy Sebastian Copeland

5. Annual sea ice variability
February
September
Greenland
Greenland
Siberia Siberia
Siberia
Maximum Sea Ice Extent
Siberia
Minimum Sea Ice Extent

6. The shrinking Arctic sea ice cover

7. Seasonal difference in ice loss
2015 Lowest
Winter Maximum
Recorded
2015 4th Lowest
Summer Minimum
Recorded
-2.6% per decade -13.4% per decade

8. Longer-term perspective
Modern Satellite Era
Various ship, aircraft, early satellite,
in situ data, whaling ship log reports
Average summer ice loss
from 1850-2015 = -19,357
km2 yr-1
Average summer ice
loss from 1979 to
2015: -83,090 km2 yr-1

9. Arctic sea routes opening up
NW Passage opening up
(2007-2012, 2015)
Conditions in 2007
NSR also open (2008-2015)
Conditions in 2008

10. http://www.wunderground.com/climate/NorthernPassages.asp
Commercial shipping
Implications of summer ice loss
In 2012, 48 vessels
traveled through the
NSR carrying more
than 1.2 million tons
of cargo, compared
to 34 in 2011 and 4
in 2010.
In 2013, 31 ships (out
of 601 active in the
NSR) made complete
transits of the NSR.
Coal was carried from
Canada to Finland,
the first bulk carrier
transit across the
NWP.
In 2014, volume
transit through the
NSR fell by 77% to
247,000 tons.
In 2015, Chinese
vessel Yong Sheng
finished a record-
setting RT from
Europe to China.

11. Distribution of known resources
USGS estimated in 2008 that 90 billion barrels of oil, 1,700
trillion cubic feet of natural gas and 44 billion barrels of
natural gas liquids may be found in the Arctic, of which
~84% occurs offshore.
Oil Gas

12. Polar bears and other charismatic
megafauna
Implications of summer ice loss
For every week a bear has
not been hunting, it is 22
pounds lighter.
Photo from Kirsten Langenberger, August
2015
In 2010, Canada
Fisheries reported there
were only 600 seals in
the Gulf of St. Lawrence,
when normally there are
30,000.

13. Impacts of changing sea ice on communities
• Reductions in sea ice
impact the entire marine
ecosystem on which
local communities
depend on.
• More open water exposes
coastlines to larger waves
from storms.

14. Why does ice loss matter to the rest of us?
• The Arctic is covered by snow and ice with high
albedo - i.e. reflects most of the sun’s energy

15. Air Temperature: A1B Scenario by 2100
Global mean warming of ~2.8oC (or ~5F);
Much of land area warms by ~3.5oC (or ~6.3F)
Arctic warms by ~7oC (or ~12.6F)
IPCC-AR4 ensemble mean, A1B Scenario, courtesy M. Holland
Amplified Arctic warming

16. climate
Forecast
Freak
Tornado
Freak FireFreak Heat-
wave
Freak
Flood
Freak
Snow
Freak
Drought
Freak
Everything

17. Mid-Latitude impacts?
• Some studies suggest Arctic sea ice loss and associated
warming may be contributing to colder Eurasia winters (e.g.
Mori et al., 2014) and weather extremes (e.g. Francis and
Vavrus, 2012).
Black
Sea
Europe
UK – Winter
2014
Arctic Frontiers Climate and Energy, Plenary Session January 21 2015
Scituate, MA --
2013
Texas
What do these events have in common?
“Stuck” weather patterns

18. How can Arctic sea ice loss impact your weather?
COLD
WARM
Consider a layer of atmosphere stretching from here (warm)
to the Arctic (cold)
Because warm air expands, the layer will be thicker here
than it is in the Arctic.
Air flows down this
“hill”, turns to the
right as the Earth
spins, and creates
the Jet Stream
As the Arctic warms
faster, the hill
flattens, and the jet
stream weakens

19. OND
~10%
Northern hemisphere mean U500
Zonal
wind
Sea ice
area
West
Winds are
Weakening…
“Weaker
Westerly
Wind is
Wavier”
Evidence for changes in zonal winds

20. Impacts on the jet stream?
Model studies show that you can influence mid-
latitude weather by taking away sea ice...
But proposed linkages are provisional episodes and
“unproven” in terms of statistical significance.

21. If amplified patterns are more frequent, blocking more likely
Blocking High => “Extreme Waviness”
March 2012 Heatwave
Unprecedented Spain Flooding
Jan 6 2014 “Polar Vortex”

22. Other links between Arctic warming and mid-latitude weather
 Reduced sea ice in Kara/Barents Seas ->> cold
Eurasian and NA winters
 Sea ice loss ->> rainfall extremes in Mediterranean
 Sea ice loss ->> East Asian monsoon
 Sea ice loss ->> wet European summers

23. Peering into the Future

24. Projections of future emissions

25. Future Sea Ice Projections
Comparison of CMIP5 and observed September Sea Ice Extent for different emission scenarios
September Ice Extent

26. How much do we contribute to ice loss?

27. Final Statements
• Continued changes will likely have significant impacts
beyond the Arctic.
• Sea ice loss in the Arctic is consistent with model
simulations made with observed records of GHGs.
• Arctic sea ice is shrinking during all times of the year,
with largest declines in summer.
• Changes in the Arctic are already affecting the
environmental, biological and societal systems.

28. Thank you

29. Thank You

30. The National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC)
Studying the Earth’s frozen realms
Courtesy NSIDC and NASA

31. Climate Change and Colorado’s Future
•
LearnMoreAboutClimate.Colorado.edu
New website that localizes climate change for
Colorado
Video series
Scientists & citizens
explain how climate
change is affecting our
state
Educator Resources
Lesson plans &
resources to help bring
climate change to the
classroom
Plus resources to help citizens in making green
choices