Unmanned Ground Vehicles

November 2013
2013 Unmanned Ground Vehicles Market Insight

Contents
Legal Disclaimer .....................................................
2013 Unmanned Ground Vehicles Market Insight

Legal Disclaimer
Quantitative market information is based primarily on inter...
2013 Unmanned Ground Vehicles Market Insight

The Frost & Sullivan Story
Frost & Sullivan, the Growth Partnership Company,...
2013 Unmanned Ground Vehicles Market Insight

Innovation Explored: The Unmanned Future?
Unmanned Ground Vehicles represent...
2013 Unmanned Ground Vehicles Market Insight

The commercial automotive industry is leading the way in unmanned vehicle sy...
2013 Unmanned Ground Vehicles Market Insight

missions rather than reduce capability by being burdensome. Finally, the emo...
2013 Unmanned Ground Vehicles Market Insight

Lockheed Martin (USA)
Marshall Systems Design Group/ Roke Manor (UK)

Motor ...
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Unmanned Ground Vehicles in the Military Domain

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Innovation Explored: The Unmanned Future? Frost & Sullivan's Market Insight on Unmanned Ground Vehicles

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Unmanned Ground Vehicles in the Military Domain

  1. 1. Unmanned Ground Vehicles November 2013
  2. 2. 2013 Unmanned Ground Vehicles Market Insight Contents Legal Disclaimer ...................................................................................................................................... 3 The Frost & Sullivan Story ...................................................................................................................... 4 M988-16 2
  3. 3. 2013 Unmanned Ground Vehicles Market Insight Legal Disclaimer Quantitative market information is based primarily on interviews and therefore is subject to fluctuation. Frost & Sullivan is not responsible for incorrect information supplied to us by manufacturers or users. Our research services are limited publications containing valuable market information provided to a select group of customers. Our customers acknowledge, when ordering, subscribing or downloading, that Frost & Sullivan research services are for customers’ internal use and not for general publication or disclosure to third parties. No part of this research service may be given, lent, resold, or disclosed to noncustomers without written permission. Furthermore, no part may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted in any form or by any means, electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without the permission of the publisher. For information regarding permission, write to: Frost & Sullivan 331 E. Evelyn Ave., Suite 100 Mountain View, CA 94041 © 2013 Frost & Sullivan. All rights reserved. This document contains highly confidential information and is the sole property of Frost & Sullivan. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, copied or otherwise reproduced without the written approval of Frost & Sullivan. M988-16 3
  4. 4. 2013 Unmanned Ground Vehicles Market Insight The Frost & Sullivan Story Frost & Sullivan, the Growth Partnership Company, enables clients to accelerate growth and achieve best-in-class positions in growth, innovation, and leadership. The company's Growth Partnership Service provides the CEO and the CEO's Growth Team with disciplined research and best-practice models to drive the generation, evaluation, and implementation of powerful growth strategies. Frost & Sullivan leverages over 50 years of experience in partnering with Global 1,000 companies, emerging businesses and the investment community from more than 40 offices on six continents. Frost & Sullivan helps our clients “Accelerate Growth” by: Delivering the broadest industry and market coverage of any research and consulting firm globally, 10 industries, 35 sectors and 300 markets – ensuring our clients not only understand their industry challenges and opportunity but growth opportunities in aligned industries and an understanding of competitive pressures from previously unknown sources, Providing a 360 degree perspective – integrating 7 critical research perspectives to significantly enhance the accuracy of our clients decision-making and lowering the risk of implementing growth strategies with poor return, Leveraging our extensive contacts within chemicals and materials value chain, including manufacturers, distributors, end-users and other industry experts, Ensuring our clients maintain a perspective of opportunities and threats globally through our 1,800 analysts in our 40 offices – making sure our clients receive global coverage and perspective based on regional expertise, Researching and documenting best practices globally – ensuring our clients leverage proven best practice answers to tough business challenges for successful growth, and Partnering with our clients team, in addition to delivering our best practices research and experience, to ensure success. M988-16 4
  5. 5. 2013 Unmanned Ground Vehicles Market Insight Innovation Explored: The Unmanned Future? Unmanned Ground Vehicles represent a tiny proportion of vehicle inventories globally. No one has yet defined how the technology will be best utilised and integrated into land forces structures. In theory, unmanned systems replacing manned systems is a powerful opportunity. The ability to reduce risk on high-threat missions, such as explosive ordinance disposal, where unmanned systems are currently in heavy use, is highly desirable but it is not yet known to what extent the requirement will evolve beyond this. There is perhaps a perception that there is too much risk for suppliers to invest heavily in producing platforms and systems to support a largely undefined need. Unsurprisingly, the US is at the forefront in terms of integration and acquisition of unmanned systems into its military land vehicle fleet. That said, even the US has dramatically scaled back its intent to integrate unmanned systems in line with wider cut backs and defence sequestration. UGVs are a surplus luxury at present. Current programmes in the US focus on logistic convoy vehicles, EOD systems, and infantry load-carrying systems. Reconnaissance systems are becoming of increasing interest but armed unmanned systems have not been explored in any significant way due to potential policy and ethical issues, particularly in terms of collateral damage. There are no really significant procurement programmes for UGVs in any other region. The UK has a small contingent of unmanned EOD systems and Israel has been using the Guardium UGV for perimeter security duties of late. Figure 1: Selected Competitor Product and Application Comparison, Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis M988-16 5
  6. 6. 2013 Unmanned Ground Vehicles Market Insight The commercial automotive industry is leading the way in unmanned vehicle systems and commercial vehicle manufacturers with a significant defence-industry footprint maybe able to migrate technology into military vehicles once costs are driven down through increasingly accessible commercial supply. Companies like Oshkosh, Volvo, Mercedes, et al, are well positioned to do this in the military truck segment. Developments in the commercial sector could provide the tipping point for mass integration of some form of unmanned systems technology in much less than ten years with the majority of vehicle fleets, particularly in the application of logistics, having an optional unmanned capability or semi-autonomy, adapting technology from commercial innovations to improve vehicle safety. It is interesting to see the parallels between the developments in the unmanned vehicle segment in which lessons could be learned for the wider military vehicles market. Technology integration through COTS may become key in all segments and is of growing interest to end users seeking to de-risk technology integration. If these systems are proven commercially, easily trained on, and easily maintained, it becomes much easier to assimilate them into operational structures and concepts. Protecting soldiers from unnecessary threats and reducing risk is probably the highest priority for military commanders. Being able to execute a mission with reduced casualty risk is an overwhelmingly attractive proposition. So much so that, in 2001, the US Defense Authorization Act set forth the objective to transform one-third of the US military land vehicle portfolio from manned to unmanned systems by 2015. Possible uses include vehicle-mounted remote weapon systems (RWS) removing the need for a soldier carrying out ‘top-cover’ duties and being exposed outside of the vehicle’s protective shell. Long-distance or high-risk logistic missions, reconnaissance in hostile territory, and CBRNE missions are also potential applications for unmanned systems. In logistics, ‘follow-theleader’ technology and semi-autonomy could dramatically reduce the need for an entire convoy of vehicles to be manned. This also has applications for duties such as casualty evacuation, and general load carrying, which removes the need for an infantry squad to carry heavy equipment or an injured buddy. The improvement of performance and mobility in dynamic threat zones is another way in which force protection and mission execution can be more effectively achieved. In terms of logistic missions, as well as reducing the man-power commitments, unmanned systems could also provide cost advantages in vehicle manufacturing. When the man is removed from the equation there is a lower requirement for heavy-armour protection leading to lighter vehicles which would be more fuel efficient with less powerful engines. These vehicles may then be cheaper to build. Despite the potential benefits and the forward-leaning US 2001 Defense Authorization Act objective, there has been limited progress. Currently, UGVs are only employed in a limited way which means there is a limited market. For the market to change there needs to be a shift from the mainly EOD-focussed application of remote-operated systems to more autonomous systems being able to conduct missions at long range and without direct supervision from a single operator. The impact autonomous systems could have on military doctrine is so disruptive that it has simply not been seriously, practically explored. This inability to doctrinally integrate fully-autonomous unmanned systems will present a serious hurdle to the integration of the technology. Moreover, the technology required to overcome environmental hazards on the ground is, at present, too immature. Also, the integration of new technology with legacy systems and existing structures is essential in order to enhance M988-16 6
  7. 7. 2013 Unmanned Ground Vehicles Market Insight missions rather than reduce capability by being burdensome. Finally, the emotive issues related to the use of autonomous systems on the ground needs to be overcome in order for end users and wider society to trust the capability and understand the risks of collateral damage or rogue systems. To date, it is little wonder that military vehicle manufactures seem reluctant to invest heavily in unmanned systems research and development whilst end users are focussed on a more-limited set of procurement objectives in the present-day fiscal climate. The real opportunity in the application of unmanned systems may well lie in the ability to assimilate effective C4ISR systems to maximise the low-cost platform availability and exploit 24-hr persistence as seen in the air domain. For now, in the five-to-ten-year timeframe, Frost & Sullivan expects only a limited proliferation of unmanned technology into the market. Perhaps, in five years, semi-autonomous appliqué add-ons to vehicles will begin the transformative process thanks to commercial advancements, providing the much-needed catalyst to trigger greater exploitation of promising potential. Company AB Precision (Poole) Ltd (UK) Product Guardian MROV Cyclops Mk4D Beetle Nano UGV Scorpion Small UGV Armadillo Micro UGV Digital Vanguard ROV Defender Application EOD EOD Reconnaissance Multiple (EOD and Reconnaissance) Reconnaissance Multiple (EOD and Reconnaissance) EOD IAI (Israel) MARCbot IV-N Izci Gezgin Wildcat ARTOR Autonomous Navigation System MDARS GSTAMIDS LS3 M4 MV10 Daksh RVO Cobra MAMBA CHAMELEON TSR 202 Avantguard Mk2 Guardium Mk1, 2, & 3 Avantguard Mk1 Rex Vehicle Inspection Multiple (EOD and Reconnaissance) Multiple (EOD and Reconnaissance) Appliqué system Load Carrying Appliqué system Reconnaissance, Perimeter Patrol EOD, Mine Detection Load Carrying EOD EOD EOD EOD EOD EOD EOD Multiple (EOD and Reconnaissance) Multiple (EOD and Reconnaissance) Multiple (EOD and Reconnaissance) Multiple (EOD and Reconnaissance) PIAP (Poland) iRobot Corporation (USA) Various XM1216 EOD Reconnaissance Allen-Vanguard Corporation / Macro USA (UK-USA) Applied Geo Technologies Inc (USA) ASELSAN (Turkey) BAE Systems (UK) RUAG Defence (Switzerland) General Dynamics Robotics Systems (USA) Boston Dynamics (USA) DOK-ING (Croatia) The Defence Research and Development Organisation (India) ECA Robotics (France) G-NIUS Unmanned Ground Systems (Israel) M988-16 7
  8. 8. 2013 Unmanned Ground Vehicles Market Insight Lockheed Martin (USA) Marshall Systems Design Group/ Roke Manor (UK) Motor Industry Research Association (UK) Novatiq (Switzerland) Oshkosh Defense (USA) Oto Melara SpA (Italy) QinetiQ North America (USA) ReconRobotics (USA) Remotec Northrop Grumman Information Systems (USA) RE2 Inc. (USA) Rotundus / American Unmanned Systems (Sweden / USA) Elbit Systems (Israel) Kairos Autonomi (USA) Clearpath Robotics (USA) Harris Corp. (USA) Autonomous Systems Inc (USA) XM-1216E1 Packbot Warrior 110 Firstlook SMSS QUESTAR TRAKKAR EyeDrive EyeBall MACE 2 & 3 SCORP UGV TerraMax system Praetor TRP 1B TRP2 TRP7 TRP3 Frog Dragonrunner TALON Recon Scout Throwbot Mini UGV Titus Cutlass Forerunner Groundbot ENGAGER Proto4 Husky A200 RedHawk Pakbot Bombot EOD Reconnaissance Multiple (EOD and Reconnaissance) Reconnaissance Load Carrying Reconnaissance Load Carrying Reconnaissance Reconnaissance Appliqué system Reconnaissance Appliqué system Multiple (EOD and Reconnaissance) EOD EOD Multiple (EOD and Reconnaissance) Multiple (EOD and Reconnaissance) Reconnaissance EOD Reconnaissance Reconnaissance EOD Reconnaissance Reconnaissance Reconnaissance Appliqué system Multiple (EOD and Reconnaissance) EOD EOD EOD Figure 2: Snapshot of Competitor Portfolios M988-16 8

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