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Top 10 Global Energy Trends

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A presentation delivered by Beatrice Shepherd, Frost & Sullivan Director of CEE, Russia and CIS.

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Top 10 Global Energy Trends

  1. 1. “ We Accelerate Growth” Top 10 Global Energy Trends Presented by Beatrice Shepherd, Director CEE, Russia & CIS Moscow and Warsaw, January 2011
  2. 2. Top 10 Global Energy Trends 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 2010 2020 2015 Major Trend Market Liberalisation Most power generation markets fully liberalised Focus on emerging markets retail liberalisation Growing trans-regional power trading Power Demand Growth Big expansion of electric/hybrid vehicles Global electrification reaches 80% Non-OECD countries Surpass OECD China becomes largest consumer Shale gas boom in USA New Age of Natural Gas CCGT favourite generation technology Growth in global pipeline network Massive boost in LNG availability Smarter Grids Smart meters take off in US and Europe Expansion of virtual power plants Smart meters reach most consumers in developed world Clean Coal Commercialisation Commercial CCS viability & large-scale dev-t Ultrasupercritical technology becomes prevalent Carbon Capture and Storage pilot plants Energy Storage Grid-scale energy storage takes off (pumped storage, CAES) Improved battery technologies emerge (Li-ion, NiZn, Molten Salt) Energy storage market reaches $50 billion Nuclear resurgence Massive nuclear expansion in China Nuclear renaissance in some European countries 56 reactors under construction globally 480+ reactors operational Energy Efficiency Global coverage for energy-efficient lighting Green buildings become norm in developed world Global penetration of micro- renewables and micro-CHP Renewable grid parity Solar and wind reach grid parity in EU and Japan Grid parity reached in majority of developed world Renewables share in power generation: 25% - globally, 30% - EU Demand Management “ Peak shaving” through energy efficiency, promotion of embedded generation Smart meters optimise consumer usage patterns and flatten peak demand Direct load control of smart appliances via remote man-t
  3. 3. World Energy Consumption 2030 7.15 exajoule +44 % Source: EIA, International Energy Outlook (2009). = 28% of global energy consumption + 25% energy consumption Electric Vehicles Boom <ul><li>€ 500 million </li></ul><ul><li>5 million EV by 2030 </li></ul><ul><li>$2.2 billion </li></ul><ul><li>Mandatory CS by 2015 </li></ul><ul><li>$ 2.4 billion </li></ul><ul><li>1 million HEV by 2015 </li></ul>25 GW per year up to 2020 are required Power Demand Growth Big expansion of electric/hybrid vehicles Global electrification reaches 80% Non-OECD countries Surpass OECD China becomes largest consumer
  4. 4. <ul><li>Technology of choice for the years to come: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Gas-fired generation – most established technology – safe bet. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>More efficient, cleaner and require less capital costs per MW than coal-fired power stations; </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Quicker to build than nuclear reactors. </li></ul></ul>Combined Cycle Gas Turbines (CCGT) LNG Boost and US Shale Gas Boom Shale gas boom in USA New Age of Natural Gas CCGT favourite generation technology Growth in global pipeline network Massive boost in LNG availability
  5. 5. Clean Coal Technology Roadmap Clean Coal Commercialisation Commercial CCS viability & large-scale dev-t Ultrasupercritical technology becomes prevalent Carbon Capture and Storage pilot plants Country / Region Clean Coal Technology Policy Initiatives United States <ul><li>DoE “Clean Coal Technology Programme and Clean Coal Power Initiative” </li></ul><ul><li>FutureGen Industrial Alliance, Inc. </li></ul>Canada <ul><li>ecoENERGY Technology Initiative (2007) </li></ul><ul><li>ban on new dirty coal plants after 2012 </li></ul>Australia <ul><li>COAL21 Action Plan </li></ul><ul><li>Clean coal projects underway – CS Energy Callide Oxyfuel, ZeroGen </li></ul>China <ul><li>All new coal-fired power plants to be of state-of-the-art commercially available technology (2008). </li></ul><ul><li>World’s most efficient (supercritical and ultrasupercritical) coal-fired power plants to be built in China. </li></ul>Europe <ul><li>EU target: to deploy up to 12 carbon capture and storage pilot plants by 2015. </li></ul><ul><li>UK: no new coal plants without carbon capture and storage (2009). </li></ul>
  6. 6. IAEA Pessimistic Frost & Sullivan IAEA Optimistic 372 GW 2008 473 GW 590 GW 1990 320 GW 748 GW 120 GW 140 GW 140 GW Added +57 GW +358 GW +221 GW 5 GW +516 GW Forecast Scenario 2030 Total Installed Capacity Decommissioned Nuclear resurgence Massive nuclear expansion in China Nuclear renaissance in some European countries 56 reactors under construction globally 480+ reactors operational
  7. 7. <ul><li>EU: 20% renewable energy by 2020; </li></ul><ul><li>US: 22 states with 10-20% renewable targets; </li></ul><ul><li>China: 100 GW of renewable energy by 2020 </li></ul><ul><li>Cost reductions are underway </li></ul><ul><li>Technology advancements </li></ul><ul><li>New renewable capacities </li></ul>Renewable Grid Parity – cost of producing electricity from fossil fuels is equal or cheaper to the cost of producing energy from renewable sources. Renewable grid parity Solar and wind reach grid parity in EU and Japan Grid parity reached in majority of developed world Renewables share in power generation: 25% - globally, 30% - EU
  8. 8. Manual meter reading: monthly reading of kWh Automatic Meter Reading (AMR): one-way monthly kWh readings, theft/outage detection and restoration Advanced Metering Infrastructure (AMI): on-demand reads, programmable load intervals, two-way metering communication, times of use (TOU), demand response, critical peak pricing (CPP), real-time pricing (RTP). Smart Meters: solid state platform, integrated communications, remote connect and disconnect; voltage, current readings; power factor correction; detailed power outage data, advanced theft detection. Smart Grid: residential and commercial energy man-t services; Home Area Network (HAN) gateways with power line communication or radio frequency; web-based applications – demand response, pre-payment, load control, revenue protection; distribution – load profiling, phase balancing, transformer optimization, energy forecasting, outage detection, restoration automation, work force and asset man-t. Government regulation and funding Reduction in power theft and fraud Demand response strategies Dwindling energy resources Indication of power outage and fault location Carbon footprint reduction Smarter Grids Smart meters take off in US and Europe Expansion of virtual power plants Smart meters reach most consumers in developed world Demand Management “ Peak shaving” through energy efficiency, promotion of embedded generation Smart meters optimise consumer usage patterns and flatten peak demand Direct load control of smart appliances via remote man-t
  9. 9. 1980 2000 1990 Evolution of Energy Efficiency Technologies in Buildings 2010 2020 Systems Integration Building Management & Control Building Automation Green Buildings IT Convergence Functional Controllers Home Automation Building Control Building Automation Smart Buildings Energy Control Construction & Operational Efficiency Building Performance Integrated Networking Energy Management Enhanced Management Intelligent Buildings HVAC Control Intelligent Green Buildings Security Convergence Smart City Low Energy Lighting Micro- Renewables Micro- Generation Smart Grids Energy Efficiency Global coverage for energy-efficient lighting Green buildings become norm in developed world Global penetration of micro- renewables and micro-CHP
  10. 10. Energy Storage Grid-scale energy storage takes off (pumped storage, CAES) Improved battery technologies emerge (Li-ion, NiZn, Molten Salt) Energy storage market reaches $50 billion
  11. 11. Nordic Power Exchange world’s first multination electric power trading platform “ truly integrated pan-European energy market” is pursued Both countries are systematically working towards further liberalisation of their energy markets Market Liberalisation Most power generation markets fully liberalised Focus on emerging markets retail liberalisation Growing trans-regional power trading
  12. 12. Russian Energy Policy of the Future Amidst Global Trends <ul><li>Renewable opportunities, primarily in hydropower and wind </li></ul><ul><li>Explore LNG potential as rival suppliers are increasingly active in key export markets (EU, Asia) </li></ul><ul><li>Invest in clean coal technology </li></ul><ul><li>Catch up in terms of smart meters deployment and expand smart grid development </li></ul><ul><li>Russia has the potential to emerge as the world ‘ s largest nuclear power nation </li></ul><ul><li>Tackle surging power demand; </li></ul><ul><li>explore EV potential </li></ul><ul><li>Improve energy efficiency of residential and industrial sectors; </li></ul><ul><li>effective energy storage </li></ul><ul><li>Continue with market liberalisation, eventually move towards trans-regional power trading </li></ul>Russian Role to Play
  13. 13. For additional information Joanna Lewandowska Corporate Communications ICT Europe (0048) 22 390 41 46 [email_address]

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