The Future of the Civil and Military UAV Market


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The Future of the Civil and Military UAV Market

  1. 1. April 2011The Future of the Civil and Military UAV Marketovic, By:By: Marko Lukovic, Principal Consultant, Aerospace, Defence & Security
  2. 2. The speed of development and growth of UAV use has been uneven across global regions with US and Israel still very much leading the way. However, experience of using mature UAV systems on operational deployment has dramatically improved the understanding of the usefulness of UAVs in Europe and Asia/Pacific and this in turn is driving a steady growth rate across the military segment. The success of UAVs in providing real-time information to military commanders has contributed to both mission effectiveness and in protecting personnel. It is UAV’s effectiveness in these roles which has encouraged most advanced militaries to fully commit to the use of them and this will drive rapid market growth during the next ten years. Figure 1: Expected Military UAV Revenues - Europe 1600 1400 1200 Million $ 1000 800 600The Future of the Civil and Military UAV Market 400 200 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 TUAV MALE HALE MUAV Source: Frost & Sullivan Over the last decade, UAV manufacturers have moved beyond pure military sales and have shown a significant amount of interest in potential UAV applications in civil and commercial markets. In line with the prevailing trends across the defence sector, the military has acted as a first adopter of UAV systems and has demonstrated their utility, encouraging the idea of their use in a large number of non-military applications ranging from law enforcement and border security to earth observation and communications. Historically, industry has often been accused of unrealistic optimism in expecting the rapid emergence of a viable civil and commercial UAV market. However, at the same time industry has played an effective advocacy role in driving initiatives in the area, particularly in Europe and to some extent North America.Market Insight © 2011Frost & Sullivan Page 2
  3. 3. Challenges and Solutions It is fairly clear that the market potential on the civil side is considerably larger than the military sector in the long term. However, at the moment there are major constraints: lack of a central procurement authority for government applications; absence of legislation and regulations for safe flight in integrated airspace; dispersed and highly heterogeneous potential customer base; to name but few. In addition, initiatives to promote and facilitate the use of UAVs in non-military applications have been relatively un-coordinated and ad-hoc in nature. Over the last three years work has began in earnest to kick-start the civil UAV market through a number of initiatives at national and European level and in cooperation with military users. These initiatives are primarily aiming to deal with the key problem which is the lack of a framework of rules governing the flight safety on the one hand and insertion of civil and military UAVs in non- segregated airspace on the other. A whole range of legislative and regulatory measures need to be designed, mutually agreed and then implemented. These rules will in turn be founded upon certain essential technologies, the most notable being a reliable, light, low-power and cost-effective Sense and Avoid (S&A) system,The Future of the Civil and Military UAV Market which would eliminate the possibility of a mid-air collision between aircraft: manned or unmanned. Both the legislators and industry are striving towards a goal of achieving a capability that would allow UAVs to operate at an Equivalent Level of Safety to manned aircraft. Until this goal is reached UAVs are required to fly either with a special military or an ad-hoc Civil Aviation Authority exemption, or in segregated airspace. At the moment, rules vary from one country to another, an incoherence which makes things more difficult for manufacturers and operators alike. However, some rules have been put in place. On the civil side, airframes with a mass of more than 150 kilos are now required to obtain airworthiness certification at a European level from the European Aviation Safety Agency (EASA). On the military side, the French Military Procurement Agency (DGA) have also developed UAV Systems Airworthiness Requirements for fixed-wing UAVs, which has been adopted as the basis of NATO’s STANAG 4671. Another important issue is that of radio frequency allocation. Currently, there are no particular areas of the RF spectrum allocated exclusively to UAV operations, which has already caused significant problems in the military use of UAVs. As with airspace exemptions, access to suitable areas of the frequency spectrum is granted, according to availability, by the local, national authority on an ad hoc basis. The assignment of appropriate slices of the spectrum, for UAV command, control and datalinks, will be an agenda item at the International Telecommunications UnionMarket Insight conference that will take place later this year though it is not yet clear whether it will be resolved fully. © 2011 Frost & Sullivan Page 3
  4. 4. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 and beyond ATM and Airworthiness Certification (EUROCONTROL) Evolutionary, iterative development of a regulatory framework governing usage of civilian UAS in European controlled airspace (based on MASPS, then MOPS produced from WG-73 and RTCA’s SC-203 recommendations) Phased approach to introduction of regulations and standards Regulation (EUROCONTROL) Ad-hoc exemptions replaced by the phased introduction of standards and Initial promulgation of legislation based regulations, each with limited coverage, as and when these are agreed and on the above recommendations become available No national, European nor global strategy Radio Frequency (RF) Spectrum and Bandwidth Allocation (ITU) or framework for UAS RF allocation. Initial discussions towards agreement on allocation of RF Spectrum for (Local solutions only, on demand) European Civilian UAS at ITU conference (WCF) in 2011 Technology (EDA. EUROCAE) EDA project MIDCAS to develop working S&A technologies by 2012-2015 Emerging Propulsion and Materials Technologies Introduction of fuel cells and revolutionary aerodynamics such as variable aerofoil and increasing use of lighter, composite materials Principal factors governing the evolution of the European civilian UAS market A rough guide to when the principal elements are expected to begin develop.The Future of the Civil and Military UAV Market Source: Frost & Sullivan Training The final but by no means less important part of the UAS puzzle is the issue of pilot training and certification. As with the UAV platform, future users as well as platform manufacturers have to prove that UAV pilots can train and operate with an equivalent level of safety as the on-board pilots. As was the case with development of UAS platforms, it is the militaries that have been leading the way in terms of rules, pilot certification processes, roles and training and simulation requirements. This is particularly the case in US which has the largest operational fleet of large UAVs such as MALE and HALE. With increasing operational experience the US Armed Forces have been fine-tuning the training programme and requirements for UAV pilots as well as the final qualification and the ability to operate within the government segment outside Armed Forces. The current approach in Europe has been set by EASA which divides UAV pilots into two classes: line of sight (Class 1); and beyond line of sight (Class 2) and is working on pilot certification issues. The current view is that UAV pilots will be treated differently from on-board pilots in terms of skills and requirements but that their training curriculum will be largely similar. UAV manufacturers as well as training and simulation companies have been working on synthetic environment training for military UAV pilots which is easily transferable to civil UAV pilot training. Based on militaryMarket Insight experience, a novelty that UAVs will bring into the pilot training arena is the sensor operator training that also needs to be taken into consideration as it has a completely separate set of requirements. These roles are expected to become the norm on the civil side once larger civil UAVs are allowed to fly freely and sensor operators will need to be trained and certified separately. © 2011 Frost & Sullivan Page 4
  5. 5. Conclusions Military UAS operations have now become the norm in almost all important deployments and military UAVs are leading the way in terms of standards, certification and pilot training. However, in the long term the civil and commercial UAS market has the potential to grow larger than its military counterpart. It will take a considerable amount of time for experience and the successful use of UAS in military and a wide range of non-military applications to diffuse across a dispersed customer base. For this to happen, a set of hurdles for the future of the market must be overcome: UAS must show that they are more cost effective than current solutions; they must be seen as more effective at completing specific tasks; and they should prove at least as safe as presently available manned systems both in terms of platform safety and pilot training. Finally, they should be able to offer new capabilities that currently do not exist. Once these factors are in place there are unlikely to be any other significant impediments to a large and vibrant UAS market that would include a wide variety of platforms and services. Oxford 4100 Chancellor CourtThe Future of the Civil and Military UAV Market Oxford Business Park Oxford, OX4 2GX, UK Tel: +44 (0) 1865 398600 Fax: +44 (0) 1865 398601 London 4, Grosvenor Gardens, London SWIW ODH,UK Tel 44(0)20 7730 3438 Fax 44(0)20 7730 3343 About Frost & Sullivan Frost & Sullivan, the Growth Partnership Company, enables clients to accelerate growth and achieve best-in-class positions in growth, innovation and leadership. The companys Growth Partnership Service provides the CEO and the CEOs Growth Team with disciplined research and best-practice models to drive the generation, evaluation, and implementation of powerful growth strategies. Frost & Sullivan leverages 50 years ofMarket Insight experience in partnering with Global 1000 companies, emerging businesses and the investment community from over 40 offices on six continents. To join our Growth Partnership, please visit © 2011 Frost & Sullivan Page 5