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Telecom Services Predictions 2011How to Start the New Decade on the Right Foot in                  Latin America      José...
Today’s Presenters         Jose Roberto Mavignier, Latin America ICT Industry Manager         Frost & Sullivan            ...
Focus PointsI. A Decade in the IndustryII. Revisiting 2010 PredictionsIII. 2011 Predictions                               ...
Telecom Increased Importance on Latin American Economies                                 Telecommunications Revenues as % ...
A Look in the Decade: Fixed Telephony’s Rise and Fall              Fixed Teledensity in Major Markets of Latin America (pe...
A Look in the Decade: Mobility Predominance              Mobile Teledensity in Major Markets of Latin America (per 100 inh...
A Look in the Decade: Datacomm Preparing for the Future             DATACOMM PENETRATION HAS INCREASED DRAMATICALLY.      ...
Revisiting 2010 PredictionsHow Were Frost & Sullivan’s Hits and Misses in Latin America?                                  ...
2010 Predictions: Hits, Partial Hits and Misses    ULTRA BROADBAND    BROADBAND VAS    MVNOs    WIMAX    MOBILE MARKETING ...
2011 PredictionsA Snapshot of Telecom Services Market Trends in                 Latin America.                            ...
Prediction #1: Mobile Payment will Gain TractionBANKS, CREDIT CARD COMPANIES, ACQUIRES AND OPERATORSMARKET DEVELOPMENT GAI...
Prediction #2: TV/INTERNET Convergence More Popular7.3 MILLION TV SETS SOLD IN LATIN AMERICA ON Q2 2010.GOOGLE TV / APPLE ...
Prediction #3: Telcos Expanding Presence on IT ServicesCLOUD COMPUTING KEY GROWTH AREASERVICE DEPENDS UPON CONNECTIVITY.  ...
Prediction #4: Government Initiatives Getting StrongerGOVERNMENT’S ROLE AUGMENTING IN THE REGIONRESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT.BRA...
Prediction #5: Ultra Broadband will Ignite the MarketNEW DIGITAL LIFESTYLE.COMPETITION BEING IMPORTANT DRIVER – ATTACKERS ...
Next Steps Request a proposal for or Growth Partnership Services or Growth Consulting Services to support you and your tea...
Your Feedback is Important to Us             What would you like to see from Frost & Sullivan?Growth Forecasts?Competitive...
Follow Frost & Sullivan on Facebook, LinkedIn,SlideShare, and Twitter            http://www.facebook.com/FrostandSullivan ...
For Additional InformationTatiana Brull                        Cecilia BaruelCorporate Communications LA          Sales Di...
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Telecom Services Predictions 2011 Latin America

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An analyst briefing presentation delivered by industry manager Jose Roberto Mavignier.

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Telecom Services Predictions 2011 Latin America

  1. 1. Telecom Services Predictions 2011How to Start the New Decade on the Right Foot in Latin America José Roberto Mavignier, Industry Manager Telecom Services January 28, 2011
  2. 2. Today’s Presenters Jose Roberto Mavignier, Latin America ICT Industry Manager Frost & Sullivan 2
  3. 3. Focus PointsI. A Decade in the IndustryII. Revisiting 2010 PredictionsIII. 2011 Predictions 3
  4. 4. Telecom Increased Importance on Latin American Economies Telecommunications Revenues as % of Country’s GDP 6,0% Colombia 5,0% Brazil 4,0% Latin America Venezuela Chile 3,0% Argentina Mexico 2,0% 1,0% 0,0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2000 – 2,8% 2009 – 3,0% 2000 – 2,7% 2009 – 5,2% 2000 – 3,7% 2009 – 4,5% 2000 – 2,1% 2009 – 2,7% 2000 – 3,5% 2009 – 3,3% 2000 – 3,3% 2009 – 3,4%Sources: World Bank, ITU, Frost&Sullivan 4
  5. 5. A Look in the Decade: Fixed Telephony’s Rise and Fall Fixed Teledensity in Major Markets of Latin America (per 100 inhabitants) 2000 – 21,4 2009 – 24,5 2000 – 17,8 2009 – 21,6 2000 – 21,4 2009 – 20,9 2000 – 18,1 2009 – 17,2 2000 – 12,6 2009 – 17,9 2000 – 10,4 2009 – 24,2 NUMBER OF SUBSCRIBERS AND LINES PRESENTED GROWTH. BUNDLE OF SERVICES. NEW BUSINESS MODELS. COMPETITION INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY. TRAFFIC AND REVENUES HAVE BEEN AFFECTED. VAS AND BROADBAND.Sources: Subtel, CRT, CNC, ANATEL, CONATEL, COFETEL, Frost&Sullivan 5
  6. 6. A Look in the Decade: Mobility Predominance Mobile Teledensity in Major Markets of Latin America (per 100 inhabitants) 2000 – 17,6 2009 – 126,1 2000 – 13,3 2009 – 90,5 2000 – 22,1 2009 – 96,7 2000 – 5,7 2009 – 91,9 2000 – 14,4 2009 – 77,4 2000 – 22,4 2009 – 104,5 PENETRATION NEAR TO 1 LINE PER PERSON. RAPIDLY EXPANDED COVERAGE. MERGES AND ACQUISITIONS. CLIENT-ACQUISITION SHIFTED TO ARPU INCREASE. CORPORATE APPLICATIONS MARKET RISING. MOBILE BROADBAND: EMAILS, SOCIAL NETWORKS, MOBILE ADVERTSING, M2MSources: Subtel, CRT, CNC, ANATEL, CONATEL, COFETEL, Frost&Sullivan 6
  7. 7. A Look in the Decade: Datacomm Preparing for the Future DATACOMM PENETRATION HAS INCREASED DRAMATICALLY. IMPORTANT DRIVERS: INFORMATIZATION, MPLS DEPLOYMENT. IMPORTANT DRIVERS: INTERNET USAGE, COST-REDUCTION. TECHNOLOGY SUBSTITUTION TOOK PLACE. REGIONAL AND NATIONWIDE BACKBONES. FIBER, DOCSIS 3.0, VDSL, ADSL2+ - RESIDENTIAL MARKET EVOLVING 7
  8. 8. Revisiting 2010 PredictionsHow Were Frost & Sullivan’s Hits and Misses in Latin America? 8
  9. 9. 2010 Predictions: Hits, Partial Hits and Misses ULTRA BROADBAND BROADBAND VAS MVNOs WIMAX MOBILE MARKETING 9
  10. 10. 2011 PredictionsA Snapshot of Telecom Services Market Trends in Latin America. 10
  11. 11. Prediction #1: Mobile Payment will Gain TractionBANKS, CREDIT CARD COMPANIES, ACQUIRES AND OPERATORSMARKET DEVELOPMENT GAINING MOMENTUMOi PAGGO: FIRST SERVICE DEPLOYED IN THE REGIONIMPORTANT DRIVERS: 3G PENETRATION, PARTNERSHIPS AND JOINT-VENTURE PUSHES, SECURITYMOBILE BANKING GROWING FASTNEAR FIELD COMMUNICATION MASSIVE PROJECTS 11
  12. 12. Prediction #2: TV/INTERNET Convergence More Popular7.3 MILLION TV SETS SOLD IN LATIN AMERICA ON Q2 2010.GOOGLE TV / APPLE TV / YOU TUBEIPTV INITIATIVES IN LATIN AMERICA: UNE, TELSUR, MAXCOM, GVT (FIBER, VoD)MULTI-PLATFORM CONTENT DELIVERY GAINING TRACTION.PENDING REGULATORY ACTS MIGHT BE IMPACTING DRIVER 12
  13. 13. Prediction #3: Telcos Expanding Presence on IT ServicesCLOUD COMPUTING KEY GROWTH AREASERVICE DEPENDS UPON CONNECTIVITY. TELCOS HAVE BILLING METHODOLOGY, DATA CENTER CAPABILITY, CAPACITY TELCOS GAINING EXPERTISE LACK OF A MORE COMPLETE PORTFOLIO AND EXPERTISEGROWING NUMBER OF TELCOS IN THE MARKET 13
  14. 14. Prediction #4: Government Initiatives Getting StrongerGOVERNMENT’S ROLE AUGMENTING IN THE REGIONRESEARCH & DEVELOPMENT.BRAZIL – TAXES EXEMPTION FOR LOWER CLASSESNATIONAL BROADBAND ROLL-OUT PLANS UNIVERSALIZATION ALSO FOR TELEPHONY DISTANT, RURAL COMMUNITIES PROJECTS – BRAZIL, VENEZUELA, CHILE 14
  15. 15. Prediction #5: Ultra Broadband will Ignite the MarketNEW DIGITAL LIFESTYLE.COMPETITION BEING IMPORTANT DRIVER – ATTACKERS X INCUMBENTSPRICES WILL START TO SLOWLY DECLINE. - TELEFONICABUNDLE OF SERVICES.SPECIFIC APPLICATIONS, SUCH AS CONNECTED HOMES, IPTV.HIGH DEPLOYMENT COSTS, TECHNICAL DIFFICULTIESVENEZUELA AND MEXICO FAR BEHIND. 15
  16. 16. Next Steps Request a proposal for or Growth Partnership Services or Growth Consulting Services to support you and your team to accelerate the growth of your company. (myfrost@frost.com) 1-877-GoFrost (1-877-463-7678) Join us at our annual Growth, Innovation, and Leadership 2011: A Frost & Sullivan Global Congress on Corporate Growth (www.gil-global.com) Register for Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Opportunity Newsletter and keep abreast of innovative growth opportunities (www.frost.com/news) 16
  17. 17. Your Feedback is Important to Us What would you like to see from Frost & Sullivan?Growth Forecasts?Competitive Structure?Emerging Trends?Strategic Recommendations?Other? Please inform us by rating this presentation. Frost & Sullivan’s Growth Consulting can assist with your growth strategies 17
  18. 18. Follow Frost & Sullivan on Facebook, LinkedIn,SlideShare, and Twitter http://www.facebook.com/FrostandSullivan http://www.linkedin.com/companies/4506 http://www.slideshare.net/FrostandSullivan http://twitter.com/frost_sullivan 18
  19. 19. For Additional InformationTatiana Brull Cecilia BaruelCorporate Communications LA Sales DirectorMarketing Communications Executive Brazil(+55 ) 11 3065-8445 (+55) 11 3065.8444tatiana.brull@frost.com cecilia.baruel@frost.comJosé Roberto Mavignier Fernando SerraLatin America Industry Manager Sales DirectorInformation & Communication Latin AmericaTechnologies (+54) 11 4777-1550(+55 ) 11 3065-8463 fernando.serra@frost.comjoseroberto.mavignier@frost.com 19

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