Opportunities in the Oilfield Services Markets in Malaysia and Indonesia

5,433 views

Published on

Frost & Sullivan analyst briefing on opportunities in the oilfield services markets in Malaysia and Indonesia

Published in: Business
2 Comments
2 Likes
Statistics
Notes
No Downloads
Views
Total views
5,433
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
9
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
348
Comments
2
Likes
2
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Opportunities in the Oilfield Services Markets in Malaysia and Indonesia

  1. 1. Opportunities in the Oilfield Services Markets in Malaysia and Indonesia Subbu Bettadapura Director, Energy & Power Systems Asia Pacific
  2. 2. Competition Overview The Upstream Industry Value Chain Table of Contents Upstream Industry Overview - Malaysia Market Potential 1 2 3 4 MALAYSIA INDONESIA 5 Upstream Industry Overview - Indonesia
  3. 3. Value Chain 1 Upstream Industry Value Chain Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. Products Exploration Phase Production Phase Crude oil and Condensate Natural Gas Development Phase Abandonment Phase The upstream O&G industry is involved in the exploration and production (extraction) of oil or gas from onshore or offshore oil or gas fields. The key activities include exploration for O&G, appraisal of the O&G field, development, production, operations and maintenance, and then abandonment. Greenfield Services Brownfield Services Upstream Sector Value Chain
  4. 4. Activities 1 Upstream Industry Value Chain Exploration Phase Production Phase <ul><li>Seismic activities </li></ul><ul><li>Drilling services </li></ul><ul><li>Marine support </li></ul><ul><li>Engineering and project management </li></ul><ul><li>Operations and maintenance services Field review and optimization </li></ul><ul><li>Retrofit work </li></ul><ul><li>Hook-up and Commissioning </li></ul><ul><li>Fabrication of structures </li></ul><ul><li>Structural maintenance and upgrade </li></ul><ul><li>Equipment maintenance and upgrade </li></ul><ul><li>Marine support </li></ul>Development Phase Abandonment Phase Greenfield Services Brownfield Services <ul><li>Hook-up and commissioning </li></ul><ul><li>Drilling services </li></ul><ul><li>Construction and fabrication of structures </li></ul><ul><li>Marine support </li></ul><ul><li>Well plugging </li></ul><ul><li>Dismantling of structures </li></ul><ul><li>Decommissioning machinery and equipment </li></ul><ul><li>Marine support </li></ul>Activities in the Upstream Sector Value Chain
  5. 5. Market Segmentation 1 Upstream Industry Value Chain Exploration Phase Production Phase Development Phase Abandonment Phase Greenfield Services Brown Field Services Marine Support Services Market Brown Field Services Market
  6. 6. Malaysia - Upstream Industry Overview Growing Complexity of Malaysia’s Reserves Source: PETRONAS <ul><li>Malaysia’s total reserves,(2010) ~ 20.56 bboe </li></ul><ul><li>Deepwater potential for oil & gas reserves is estimated to be 10bboe </li></ul><ul><li>Growing Complexity in extracting Malaysia’s reserves </li></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Malaysia’s deepwater presents unique challenges such as complicated sea-bed relief with slope and stability issues </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Shallow hazards </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Hydrate management </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>High CO2 content in gas </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><li>Reserves estimate increase due to </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Additions from new discoveries </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Revised estimates due to EOR </li></ul></ul>2 <ul><li>In Malaysia, deepwater definition ranges from depth of 200m to 1200m. Beyond 1200 meters is considered as Ultra deepwater </li></ul><ul><li>Generally accepted deepwater definition - greater than 300 metres depth up to 1500 meters; Ultra deepwater - greater than 1500 meters depth </li></ul>Deepwater Reserves, at ~ 3 bboe (2010), are 14.5% of total reserves
  7. 7. Increasing number of PSCs and International Companies Participation 2 <ul><li>Number of active PSCs: 82 </li></ul><ul><li>Currently there are 33 exploration, 15 development and 34 producing PSCs </li></ul><ul><li>20 international oil & gas exploration companies are present in Malaysia </li></ul><ul><li>16 of these operate oil & gas assets in Malaysia </li></ul>Source: Petronas; Compiled by Frost & Sullivan Malaysia - Upstream Industry Overview
  8. 8. Malaysia’s Upstream Expenditure – Increasing Trend <ul><li>Malaysia’s upstream expenditure has steadily increased over the years </li></ul><ul><li>The country’s upstream expenditure was 28.72 billion RM in FY 2010 </li></ul><ul><li>Malaysia Upstream Expenditure, FY 2011 ~ RM 34 Billion </li></ul>Malaysia Upstream Expenditure, FY 2001 to FY 2010 Total number of producing fields: 106 Oil : 68 Gas : 38 Oil and Gas Fields Discovered : 409 Oil: 167; Gas: 242 Malaysia - Upstream Industry Overview 2 Source: Petronas; Compiled by Frost & Sullivan
  9. 9. Deep Water is the Final Frontier – Its true for Malaysia too Malaysia- Upstream Industry Overview Increasing Depth <ul><li>Malaysia is faced with the prospect of declining shallow water reserves – a phenomenon true for most countries (except a few OPEC and Russia) </li></ul><ul><li>Global Drivers for DW projects </li></ul><ul><li>Decline in shallow water reserves </li></ul><ul><li>Strong growth in energy demand </li></ul><ul><li>Rising oil & gas prices </li></ul><ul><li>Long term sustainability </li></ul><ul><li>Technology now exists to tap oil at depths exceeding 3 km </li></ul><ul><li>Drivers specific to Malaysia </li></ul><ul><li>Capability development & local participation </li></ul><ul><li>Goal to grow competency to be DW regional hub and global player </li></ul>2010 2006 2002 1983 <ul><li>Deep water projects more expensive and carry more risks </li></ul><ul><li>Oil price estimates for project to break even - </li></ul><ul><li>Shallow water: $40 </li></ul><ul><li>Shallow water, marginal: $65 </li></ul><ul><li>Deepwater: $ 80 </li></ul><ul><li>Ultra deepwater: $80 to $100 </li></ul>2
  10. 10. 2 Source: Compiled by Frost & Sullivan Deepwater Fields Being Developed Gumusut/Kakap (Block J & K) Development Stage Recoverable: 620mboe Depth: 1,100m Onstream: 2011/2012 Operator: Shell Malikai (Block G) Development Stage Recoverable: 108mboe Depth: 480m Onstream: 2012/2013 Operator: Shell Kebabangan Development Stage Recoverable: 2.2tscf Depth: >200m Onstream: 2012/2013 Operator: KPOC Jangas (Block J) Pre-Development Stage Recoverable: 81mmboe Depth: >1000m Onstream: 2012/2013 Operator: Murphy Ubah Crest (Block G) Pre-Development Stage Recoverable: 215mmboe Depth: >1000m Onstream: 2013/2014 Operator: Shell Pisangan (Block J) Pre-Development Stage Recoverable: 56mmboe Depth: >1000m Onstream: 2013/2014 Operator: Shell Kamunsu Pre-Development Stage Recoverable: 2.2tscf Depth: >1000m Onstream: 2014/2015 Operator: KPOC North Siakap – Petai Pre-Development Stage Limbayong, Block G Pre-Development Stage Malaysia – Upstream Industry Overview
  11. 11. Deepwater Production Forecasts Malaysia Oil Production (%) <ul><li>Deep Water to contribute 30% of oil production in 2020 </li></ul><ul><li>Shallow water existing includes production from SW marginal fields and EOR additions </li></ul>2 Malaysia – Upstream Industry Overview Source: Petronas; Compiled by Frost & Sullivan
  12. 12. Development Solutions for Malaysia Deepwater Projects 2 Malikai North Siakap Petai Gumusut Kakap Kikeh Kebabangan Sub-sea TLP Fixed Platform SPAR FPSO FPS Sabah Oil & Gas Terminal Malaysia – Upstream Industry Overview
  13. 13. Wells Drilling Forecast, Malaysia 2 Malaysia – Upstream Industry Overview <ul><li>Forecast includes both shallow water and deepwater (Exploration, Appraisal and Development) Wells </li></ul><ul><li>6 deep water fields (of the total wells forecast, 20% are in deepwater) </li></ul><ul><li>22 new Shallow Water Blocks </li></ul><ul><li>10 Marginal fields </li></ul><ul><li>6 fields identified for Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) </li></ul>Source: Frost & Sullivan Estimates
  14. 14. Upstream Expenditure 3 Indonesia - Upstream Industry Overview <ul><li>Indonesia’s upstream expenditure has increased steadily since 2001.The country’s upstream expenditure for FY 2011 is forecast to be $17.0 billion. </li></ul>Upstream Expenditure, 2001-2010 Indonesia Year Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
  15. 15. Oil Production and Consumption 3 Indonesia – Upstream Industry Overview Oil Production & Consumption, Indonesia <ul><li>Oil Exporter Turned Importer </li></ul><ul><li>Increasing domestic demand </li></ul><ul><li>Falling domestic production </li></ul><ul><li>Remediation </li></ul><ul><li>Brown fields to be rejuvenated </li></ul><ul><li>More exploration to improve reserves </li></ul><ul><li>Reduce demand </li></ul>The demand for oil is expected to ease as natural gas increasingly substitutes oil in the power sector. Approximately $10.0 billion is needed to halve the current oil consumption and replace it with gas.
  16. 16. Oil Production Outlook 3 Indonesia – Upstream Industry Overview Oil Production Outlook, 2010-2015 Indonesia <ul><li>To meet these two targets, E&P investments and good project management have become important </li></ul><ul><li>Data acquisition techniques are necessary for new discoveries </li></ul>Source: BP MIGAS 954 MBOPD – 1000 Barrels per Day Actual (MBOPD) 920* 920* <ul><li>Oil production to decrease or at best stay at current levels in 2011 and 2012 </li></ul><ul><li>Forecast </li></ul>Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
  17. 17. Natural Gas Production Outlook 3 Indonesia – Upstream Industry Overview Natural Gas Production Outlook, 2010-2020 Indonesia Source: BP MIGAS, Frost & Sullivan analysis. <ul><li>If this potential is not realized, </li></ul><ul><li>Indonesia is likely to be a net gas importer by 2021 </li></ul>Bringing projects onstream on time assumes importance if all contracted commitments and projected demand increase are to be met
  18. 18. Offshore Prospects 3 Indonesia – Upstream Industry Outlook Source: Planning Dept, Govt of Indonesia; Petroleum Geo-Services; Frost & Sullivan analysis. Offshore Potential, Indonesia Deepwater Potential: Tarakan basin; Papalan Basin Thrust from Government for faster development of gas projects for meeting domestic and export gas demand East Kalimantan Masela Block 10 TCF Reserves; water depth 300m to 1000m Inpex to invest $ 4.9 billion for floating LNG plant (2.5 mmtpa) with production start-up in 2016 Makassar Strait Gehem, Gendalo, Gandang, Maha and Bangka fields Chevron to develop East Kalimantan deepwater fields, and Gehem and Gendalo projects . Investment $7.0-$8.0 billion. Plan Of Development approved Shallow Water Bukit Tua <ul><li>Deep Water </li></ul><ul><li>Gehem </li></ul><ul><li>Gendalo </li></ul><ul><li>INPEX Masela FLNG </li></ul><ul><li>Petramina FSRU </li></ul>Prospective FPSO Projects
  19. 19. Key Players 4 Competition Overview Note: Licensing is an essential pre-requisite to compete in this industry. Key Players in Malaysia include SapurCrest Petroleum, Kencana, Petra Energy, Dialog Group, Bumi Armada, etc Key Players in Indonesia include Apexindo, Elnusa, Gearindo, PT Wintermar Offshore Marine, etc Competitor Overview , Oilfield Services Market: Malaysia & Indonesia Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. TREND Decreasing Stable Increasing ▼ ● ▲
  20. 20. Offshore Potential in the Asia Pacific Region; Offshore Prospects 5 Source: Compiled by Frost & Sullivan KG Basin 6.76 TCF Offshore Sabah (10 TCF) & Sarawak (45 TCF) 4.2Bboe proven; 8Bboe potential Gulf of Thailand Arthit 1.9TCF Bohai Bay 7.35 Bboe Carnarvon 95.5 TCF East Kalimantan 47 TCF Makassar Strait 6 TCF Kikeh 700 mmboe Masela 10 TCF Phu Khanh Basin 2.48Bboe Shwe Gas Field 8 TCF Browse 30.3 TCF M9 Field, Gulf of Martaban 1.76 TCF Bonaparte 29.5 TCF Gippsland 10.65 TCF <ul><li>Asia Pacific – a significant deepwater region </li></ul>Market Potential
  21. 21. Malaysia as the Oilfield Services Hub: Key Success Factors 5 Market Potential Infrastructure Government Policies Location 1 2 3 Cost Competitiveness 4
  22. 22. Development of Labuan and Sabah Region as the Deep Water Services Hub 5 <ul><li>Labuan and Sabah region has the potential to be developed into a deep water services hub </li></ul><ul><li>Drivers for Development of Labuan and Sabah </li></ul><ul><li>Gumusut / Kakap, Malikai, Jangas, Ubah Crest, Pisangan and Kamunsu deep water fields are being developed </li></ul><ul><li>Sabah Oil and Gas Terminal (SOGT) </li></ul><ul><li>Development of logistics - MOU between Labuan Shipyard & Engineering (LSE) and Asian Supply Base (ASB) </li></ul>Important to leverage the deepwater oil & gas reserves, operators, specialised equipment manufacturers, service providers and offshore engineering companies Market Potential
  23. 23. Petronas Aspires to Transfer Development and Operation Activities to Malaysia 5 Market Potential Source: Petronas Key Activities Kikeh Gumusut Kakap Malikai Kebabangan, North Siakap–Petai, UbahCrest, Pisangan, KemunsuEast All future deep water projects Subsurface Studies/Field Development Plan Malaysia North America Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Engineering • pre-FEED • FEED • Detail Design Malaysia North America Europe Malaysia North America Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Procurement Malaysia North America Europe Malaysia North America Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Fabrication • Topside • Hull • Subsea Malaysia Europe Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia
  24. 24. Estimation of Market Potential: Malaysia 5 Market Potential Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. Brownfield Services Market Marine Support Services Market This estimation assesses the outsourced component for Marine Support (includes marine support for both greenfield and brownfield services) The Market Size includes marine support assets such as: Work Boat , Work Barge , Crew Boat, Utility Vessels (UV) , Diving Support Vessels , Platform Service Vessels (PSV), Anchor Handling Tug Supply (AHTS) This excludes FPSOs, Drill Ships, Semi-Subs and Jack-ups <ul><li>This estimation assesses the outsourced component. </li></ul><ul><li>Includes brownfield services (including marine support services for brownfields) </li></ul><ul><li>Equipment Packaging & Supply </li></ul><ul><li>Marine Support </li></ul><ul><li>Retrofit </li></ul><ul><li>Minor Structure Fabrication </li></ul><ul><li>Operation & Maintenance </li></ul><ul><li>Decommissioning Services </li></ul>Revenues ($ Million) Y-o-Y % Growth Rate 2010 243.0 19.9% 2016 415.4 9.0% Revenues ($ Million) Y-o-Y % Growth Rate 2010 131.8 12.0% 2016 230.4 8.5%
  25. 25. Estimation of Market Potential: Indonesia 5 Market Potential Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. Brownfield Services Market Marine Support Services Market This estimation assesses the outsourced component for Marine Support (includes marine support for both greenfield and brownfield services) The Market Size includes marine support assets such as: Work Boat , Work Barge , Crew Boat, Utility Vessels (UV) , Diving Support Vessels , Platform Service Vessels (PSV), Anchor Handling Tug Supply (AHTS) This excludes FPSOs, Drill Ships, Semi-Subs and Jack-ups <ul><li>This estimation assesses the outsourced component. </li></ul><ul><li>Includes brownfield services (including marine support services for brownfields) </li></ul><ul><li>Equipment Packaging & Supply </li></ul><ul><li>Marine Support </li></ul><ul><li>Retrofit </li></ul><ul><li>Minor Structure Fabrication </li></ul><ul><li>Operation & Maintenance </li></ul><ul><li>Decommissioning Services </li></ul>Revenues ($ Million) Y-o-Y % Growth Rate 2010 585.4 18.5% 2016 1707.8 19.2% Revenues ($ Million) Y-o-Y % Growth Rate 2010 317.3 17.5% 2016 910.5 16.5%
  26. 26. http://twitter.com/frost_sullivan Follow Frost & Sullivan on Facebook, LinkedIn, SlideShare, and Twitter http://www.facebook.com/pages/Frost-Sullivan/249995031751?ref=ts http://www.linkedin.com/companies/4506 http://www.slideshare.net/FrostandSullivan
  27. 27. For Additional Information Donna Jeremiah Corporate Communications Asia Pacific +603 6204 5832 [email_address] Carrie Low Corporate Communications Asia Pacific +603 6204 5910 [email_address] Subramanya Bettadapura Director Energy & Power Systems [email_address] Dewi Nuraini Corporate Communications Indonesia +62 21 571 0838 [email_address]

×