North American and Latin American
Economic Outlook
Gaining Traction or Losing Ground?
© 2013 Frost & Sullivan. All rights ...
2
Today’s Presenter
Vinnie Aggarwal
Chief Economist
Art Robbins
President
North America
Roberta Gamble
Partner Energy &
En...
3
Global Overview
Vinnie Aggarwal
Chief Economist
4
Turning the Tide on the Shifting Global Economy
5
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
World European
Union
Emerging
market and
developing
economies
Central and
eastern Eur...
6
Monetary Policies of the World’s Largest Economies are
Diverging - Where are we headed next?
The United States, China an...
Poll Question
8
Regional Trends: United
States
Art Robbins
President
North America
9
Growth Prospects Remain Cautiously Optimistic
Sources: GET-IT and Frost & Sullivan
Decreased Energy Costs are Boosting t...
10
Natural Gas, Innovation and the Private Sector are Driving
the Economies of the Fastest-Growing States
3% +
2.5% - 3.0%...
11
Natural Gas, Innovation and the Private Sector are Driving
the Economies of the Fastest-Growing States (Continued)
Priv...
12
Energy Sector Insights
Roberta Gamble
Partner, Energy & Environment
13
Shifting the Energy Consumption Mix
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Liquid Fuels Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Biofuels Renewable E...
14
Regional Energy Reform: Being left behind is not an
option
Sources: EIA and Frost & Sullivan
8.6
8.8
9.0
9.2
9.4
9.6
9....
15
Industrial & Manufacturing
Sector Insights
Sath Rao
Global Vice President
Industrial Automation & Process Control
16
California
Texas
Illinois
North Carolina
Ohio
New England
Indiana
Pennsylvania
Michigan
New York
Louisiana
Oregon
-2.0
...
17
Manufacturing Critical Issues & Monitoring Micro Booms
&
Age of Agility Age of Flexibility
Mega Trends to Micro Booms
S...
Leveraging the GIL-100 Index with a Focus
on Emerging Market Opportunities
19
Systematic Approach to Identifying the next rung
of promising markets by region and size
• 100 countries ranked based o...
20
Emerging Market Focus
Aroop Zutshi
Global President &
Managing Partner
21
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
Latin
America
and the
Caribbean
Developed
Economies
Emerging
Economies
Brazil R...
Poll Question
23
Regional Trends: Latin
America
Cristiano Zaroni
Director, Latin America
Operations
24
Latin America is Highly Dependent on Extractive
Industries
There is a strong policy focus to move away from this depend...
25
Lessons from 2013: Reliance on Extractive Industries and
Local Demand is no Longer Enough to Sustain Growth
Mexico
Colo...
26
Brazil has a large consumer market and has the 4th largest ICT market globally, growth in
new technologies like cloud, ...
27
Macro
Micro
EMI’s ‘Macro to Micro’ Insight into Emerging Markets will
help you Look at Unexplored Markets
Emerging Mark...
28
Regional Economic Growth Briefings – Schedule for 2013
Region Live Date of Session
Global Economic Outlook 2013 24 Janu...
29
Growth Innovation and Leadership: Upcoming Events
GIL 2013: France
17 October 2013
GIL 2013: Germany
19 November 2013
G...
30
Growth Innovation and Leadership Congress, September
8-11, 2013, Silicon Valley
EMI Track at GIL 2013: Silicon Valley -...
31
Like the Content: How to Access?
Leverage full benefits of:
Growth Partnership
Services
+
Growth Team Membership
+
GIL ...
32
http://twitter.com/frost_sullivan
Follow Frost & Sullivan on
Facebook, LinkedIn, SlideShare, and Twitter
http://www.fac...
Q & A
34
For Additional Information
Francesca Valente
Marketing & Corporate
Communications Executive,
Latin America
francesca.va...
35
The Frost & Sullivan Story
1961 1990 Today
Emerging Research
1961–1990
Pioneered Emerging Market
& Technology Research
...
Upcoming SlideShare
Loading in …5
×

North American and Latin American Regional Economic Outlook

1,099 views

Published on

Short Description:

Dr. Vinnie Aggarwal, Chief Economist; Art Robbins, President, North America; Aroop Zutshi, Global President and Managing Partner; Cristiano Zaroni, Director, Latin America; Roberta Gamble, Partner; and Sath Rao, Global Vice President, have completed extensive analysis on the Economic Outlook for the Latin and North American regions. The experts will lead a short teleconference about new findings that affect the market, followed by a live question-and-answer session.

You Will Discover:

The economies of North and Latin America are vital to expanding global investment and growth opportunities in 2013 and 2014. The uncertain and slow recovery in Europe has shifted much attention to emerging economies in Latin America. The entire Latin American region has benefited from investment, and recent economic upturns in the United States will further benefit and change the trade and investment dynamics of the emerging economies of Latin America.

With the United States’ influence in Latin America slipping away as a result of increased trade and investment from Europe and Asia, this briefing will identify whether this trend will continue, or whether the United States will once again strengthen its influence in Latin America. The key considerations are whether there are growing opportunities in North and Latin America and what can be done to take advantage of these opportunities.

Why you should attend:

- Lean about the key industry growth sectors and economic developments in North America and Latin America
- Identify the political and social dynamics that may influence business in the regions
- Assess the competitive advantage of various industries and countries in the two regions
- Assess whether there will be a shift in trade and investment patterns and learn about the most likely future developments for the regions in the short term

Published in: Business, Technology
1 Comment
4 Likes
Statistics
Notes
No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,099
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
1
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
28
Comments
1
Likes
4
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide
  • Speak on policy focus and changes in trade patterns with global regionsWhat will this mean for Latin America?
  • North American and Latin American Regional Economic Outlook

    1. 1. North American and Latin American Economic Outlook Gaining Traction or Losing Ground? © 2013 Frost & Sullivan. All rights reserved. This document contains highly confidential information and is the sole property of Frost & Sullivan. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, copied or otherwise reproduced without the written approval of Frost & Sullivan. August 22, 2013
    2. 2. 2 Today’s Presenter Vinnie Aggarwal Chief Economist Art Robbins President North America Roberta Gamble Partner Energy & Environment Sath Rao Global Vice President Industrial & Emerging Market Innovation Aroop Zutshi Global President and Managing Partner Cristiano Zaroni Managing Director Latin America
    3. 3. 3 Global Overview Vinnie Aggarwal Chief Economist
    4. 4. 4 Turning the Tide on the Shifting Global Economy
    5. 5. 5 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 World European Union Emerging market and developing economies Central and eastern Europe Developing Asia Latin America and the Caribbean Sub-Saharan Africa United States China GDPGrowthAverage(%) 2005 to 2007 Average 2013 to 2015 Average Should we be Worried? Emerging economies’ growth has been subdued, but growth remains positive in a strained global environment Sources: GET-IT and Frost & Sullivan Average GDP Growth is Predicted to be Significantly Lower from 2013 to 2015 for Many Regions, With the Exception of the United States The predicted rising labor costs in China will provide new opportunities for Latin American and North American manufacturers.
    6. 6. 6 Monetary Policies of the World’s Largest Economies are Diverging - Where are we headed next? The United States, China and other major emerging markets may tighten monetary policy, whereas the Euro Zone, Britain and Japan are sustaining quantitative easing. What influence will this have in H2 2013? • Strong dollar • Weak pound, euro and yen • Weakening of commodity currencies globally • Outflow of hot money from emerging markets could lead to subdued growth, currency devaluation and widening current account deficits -9.53 1.56 -5.66 -6.32 -8.34 Brazil real Mexico peso Chile peso Columbia peso Peru sol % Change (January to July 2013) Declining Latin American Currencies in 2013 Sources: GET-IT and Frost & Sullivan
    7. 7. Poll Question
    8. 8. 8 Regional Trends: United States Art Robbins President North America
    9. 9. 9 Growth Prospects Remain Cautiously Optimistic Sources: GET-IT and Frost & Sullivan Decreased Energy Costs are Boosting the Chemicals Sector, 2011 Q1 to 2014 Q2 Note: Values for H2 2013 and H1 2014 are forecast Energy renaissance Fiscal policy paralysis Private sector driving jobs 2011 2012 2013 2014 (2.0) (1.0) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 IndexOfIndustrialProductionGrowth(%) Energy Food and Beverages Chemicals
    10. 10. 10 Natural Gas, Innovation and the Private Sector are Driving the Economies of the Fastest-Growing States 3% + 2.5% - 3.0% 2.0% - 2.5% 1.5% - 2.0% 0% - 1.5% Statewise GDP Growth Expectations for 2013 for the United States Texas California Oregon Washington North Dakota Minnesota Indiana West Virginia Tennessee New York Montana South Dakota Wyoming Idaho Nevada Utah New Mexico Kansas Arkansas Virginia Kentucky Maine Wisconsin Michigan Pennsylvania North Carolina South Carolina Georgia Arizona Colorado Nebraska Iowa Missouri Oklahoma Louisiana Mississippi Florida Alabama New Jersey Maryland Mass. Conn.R. I. New Hampshire Ohio Vermont Sources: BEA, GET-IT and Frost & Sullivan
    11. 11. 11 Natural Gas, Innovation and the Private Sector are Driving the Economies of the Fastest-Growing States (Continued) Private Investment is Driving Growth, 2008 Q1 - 2013 Q4 (10.0) 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 0.0 500.0 1,000.0 1,500.0 2,000.0 2,500.0 3,000.0 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 ForeignDirectInvestment($Billion) GrossPrivateDomesticInvestment($Billion) Gross Private Domestic Investment Foreign Direct Investment Forecasts 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Sources: BEA, GET-IT and Frost & Sullivan
    12. 12. 12 Energy Sector Insights Roberta Gamble Partner, Energy & Environment
    13. 13. 13 Shifting the Energy Consumption Mix 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Liquid Fuels Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Biofuels Renewable Energy EnergyConsumption(QuadrilllionBtu) 2010 2013 2015 2020 There is a clear shift toward natural gas and renewable energy, with President Obama‟s shift away from coal-fired electricity generation in the Climate Action Plan. Gains from increased domestic energy production will include lower energy prices and increased revenue from energy exports. Outlook for the Energy Consumption Mix in the United States, 2010-2020 Sources: EIA and Frost & Sullivan
    14. 14. 14 Regional Energy Reform: Being left behind is not an option Sources: EIA and Frost & Sullivan 8.6 8.8 9.0 9.2 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.2 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 2010 2013 2015 2020 ElectricutyPrice(2011Centper Kilowatthour) GasTrade(TrillionCubicFeet) Natural Gas Imports Natural Gas Exports Electricity Price The Influence of Natural Gas will Have a Significant Impact on Electricity Prices in the United States, Which May be Offset by an Increase in Planned Exports, 2010-2020 China’s influence in Latin America Oil deal between China and Mexico Large scale energy reforms in Mexico Energy prices in the United States are expected to decrease
    15. 15. 15 Industrial & Manufacturing Sector Insights Sath Rao Global Vice President Industrial Automation & Process Control
    16. 16. 16 California Texas Illinois North Carolina Ohio New England Indiana Pennsylvania Michigan New York Louisiana Oregon -2.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 ManufacturingGrowthRate,2009-2012Average (%) State Manufacturing Share of US Total Manufacturing (%) The Key Engines of Manufacturing Growth Top 12 Manufacturing States by Size and their Corresponding Growth Rates, 2009-2012 Louisiana, Michigan & Texas are leading the charge in the resurgence of manufacturing in the United States. Source: BEA , Frost & Sullivan The Chemicals Sector is Expanding Rapidly and Attracting Significant Local and International Investment In the United States, 2008-2012 (20.0) (15.0) (10.0) (5.0) 0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 FDIGrowthRate(%) Manufacturing Chemicals Machinery
    17. 17. 17 Manufacturing Critical Issues & Monitoring Micro Booms & Age of Agility Age of Flexibility Mega Trends to Micro Booms Shale and tight oil resurgence Critical infrastructure protection Energy logistics – Return of rail car? BYOD and Industrial mobility
    18. 18. Leveraging the GIL-100 Index with a Focus on Emerging Market Opportunities
    19. 19. 19 Systematic Approach to Identifying the next rung of promising markets by region and size • 100 countries ranked based on their sales attractiveness for manufacturers of energy equipment used in energy supply and in energy intensive industries • The goal is to help EII companies identify promising countries for their products by GDP brackets and by region • Look at factors other than growth that could impact emerging market strategy 100 Countries 10-20 Emerging Country Opportunities GIL 100 Index Energy Intensive Industries (EII): Structuring your Emerging Market Strategy By GDP Bracket By Region Supply Demand + GIL 100 EII Index
    20. 20. 20 Emerging Market Focus Aroop Zutshi Global President & Managing Partner
    21. 21. 21 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 Latin America and the Caribbean Developed Economies Emerging Economies Brazil Russia India China GDPGrowth(%) 2012 2013 2014 Positive Signs in Emerging Economies Despite Sluggish Growth in Traditional Top Performers Sources: GET-IT and Frost & Sullivan “If you lift your people out of extreme poverty, it‟s not like they‟re going to say „Great, now we‟re all set, we don‟t want anything else,‟” Jim Yong Kim, president of the World Bank Growth potential in emerging economies has shifted The end of the commodity boom hit extractive economies hard Financial outflows will place emerging economies under pressure Financial sector boom expected in emerging markets The Growth Patterns of Larger Emerging Economies are Diverging, 2012-2014
    22. 22. Poll Question
    23. 23. 23 Regional Trends: Latin America Cristiano Zaroni Director, Latin America Operations
    24. 24. 24 Latin America is Highly Dependent on Extractive Industries There is a strong policy focus to move away from this dependence and invest in beneficiation activities and to improve infrastructure and technology to increase competitiveness. Sources: GET-IT and Frost & Sullivan Exports from Latin America, 2001 and 2012 0.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 Mineral Fuel and Oil Vehicles Electrical, electronic equipment Ores, slag and ash Machinery Metals and Precious Stones Copper Oil, Seed, Fruits & Grain Exports ($ Billion) 2012 2001 The greatest growth in exports has been for petroleum, mineral and metal products, with China as the fastest-growing trading partner Economic growth tied to Chinese demand Infrastructure spending increase Economic growth potential has shifted to new markets in the region
    25. 25. 25 Lessons from 2013: Reliance on Extractive Industries and Local Demand is no Longer Enough to Sustain Growth Mexico Colombia Peru Chile Argentina Uruguay Paraguay Bolivia Venezuela Brazil Panama Costa Rica Nicaragua HondurasGuatemala Dominican Republic Mercosur Free Trade Agreement with the US and EU Pacific Alliance & Free Trade Agreement with the US and EU The Pacific Alliance has taken a more pragmatic approach to foreign relations and investments The Pacific Alliance is seen as a more dynamic rival to Mercosur
    26. 26. 26 Brazil has a large consumer market and has the 4th largest ICT market globally, growth in new technologies like cloud, big data analysis and BPO present a great opportunity in Latin America as a whole. The Ever-Shifting Knowledge Economy Percent Forecast of Lines by Technology, Latin America, 2017 Smartphone Shipments (Million Units), Latin America, 2012-2017 415.6 million lines Mobile penetration in Latin America has reached 125%, and is likely to be over 163% by 2017 as users migrate from 2G to data-heavy 3G and 4G services Smartphone sales in Latin America will more than double by 2017 3G coverage is expected to reach 100% of Brazilian cities in 2019
    27. 27. 27 Macro Micro EMI’s ‘Macro to Micro’ Insight into Emerging Markets will help you Look at Unexplored Markets Emerging Market Growth Monitor (EMGM) Global Economic Tracker- Insights and Trends (GET- IT) Workshops  Integrated emerging market country industry forecasts  Economic insights  Quarterly updates on economic trends and industry indicators  Specific insights from emerging market experts. Economic and industry correlations  On site or virtual workshops customized to business needs  Facilitates development of a country pipeline
    28. 28. 28 Regional Economic Growth Briefings – Schedule for 2013 Region Live Date of Session Global Economic Outlook 2013 24 January 2013 Europe & Africa 17 June 2013 North America & Latin America 22 August 2013 Emerging Asia Pacific November 2013
    29. 29. 29 Growth Innovation and Leadership: Upcoming Events GIL 2013: France 17 October 2013 GIL 2013: Germany 19 November 2013 GIL 2014: Latin America January 2014
    30. 30. 30 Growth Innovation and Leadership Congress, September 8-11, 2013, Silicon Valley EMI Track at GIL 2013: Silicon Valley - Emerging Market Innovation: A Best Practices Approach to developing your Emerging Markets Strategy GIL 2013: Silicon Valley 8-11 September 2013 gil-events.gilcommunity.com
    31. 31. 31 Like the Content: How to Access? Leverage full benefits of: Growth Partnership Services + Growth Team Membership + GIL Global Community +  Access content on www.frost.com or www.cif.frost.com  information – myfrost@frost.com  1-877-GOFROST (463-7678)
    32. 32. 32 http://twitter.com/frost_sullivan Follow Frost & Sullivan on Facebook, LinkedIn, SlideShare, and Twitter http://www.facebook.com/FrostandSullivan http://www.linkedin.com/companies/4506 http://www.slideshare.net/FrostandSullivan
    33. 33. Q & A
    34. 34. 34 For Additional Information Francesca Valente Marketing & Corporate Communications Executive, Latin America francesca.valente@frost.com
    35. 35. 35 The Frost & Sullivan Story 1961 1990 Today Emerging Research 1961–1990 Pioneered Emerging Market & Technology Research • Global Footprint Begins • Country Economic Research • Market & Technical Research • Best Practice Career Training • MindXChange Events Partnership Relationship with Clients • Growth Partnership Services • GIL Global Events • GIL University • Growth Team Membership • Growth Consulting Growth Partnership 1990–Today Visionary Innovation Today–Future Visionary Innovation • Mega Trends Research • CEO 360 Visionary Perspective • GIL Think Tanks • GIL Global Community • Communities of Practice

    ×