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New Mega Trends in the United States- Impact of Mega Trends on the Future of Mobility


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New Mega Trends in the United States- Impact of Mega Trends on the Future of Mobility

  1. 1. New Mega Trends in the United States Impact of Mega Trends on the Future of Mobility NCDD-18 September 2013 NCDD-18 1
  2. 2. Contents Section Slide Numbers Executive Summary 4 Research Scope, Objectives, Background, and Methodology 12 Definitions Used in the Study 18 Mega Trend 1: Urbanization - 'City as a Customer' 20 Mega Trend 2: Smart is the New Green 30 Mega Trend 3: Social Trends 35 Mega Trend 4: Connectivity & Convergence 44 Mega Trend 5: Bricks and Clicks 51 Mega Trend 6: Innovating to Zero 61 Mega Trend 7: New Business Models: Value for Many 64 Mega Trend 8: Economic Trends 69 Mega Trend 9: Health, Wellness and Wellbeing 73 Mega Trend 10: Future Of Mobility 78 Conclusion 92 Appendix 96 NCDD-18 2
  3. 3. Executive Summary NCDD-18 3
  4. 4. New Mega Trends—North America: Top Mega Trends Covered in Frost & Sullivan Research What is a Mega Trend? Mega Trends are transformative, global forces that define the future world with their far reaching impacts on businesses, societies, economies, cultures, and personal lives. Why do Mega Trends matter? • Mega Trends have diverse meanings and impacts for different industries, companies, and individuals. An analysis of these Mega Trends and their implications forms an important component of a company’s future strategy, development, and innovation process, and impacts product and technology planning. • The following research service sets the stage for visionary thinking by identifying the most important global Mega Trends that will significantly impact urban logistics and the implications of these Mega Trends for transforming society, markets, and cultures. Global Mega Trends Urbanization —City as a Customer Bricks and Clicks Connectivity and Convergence Future of Mobility Social Trends Health, Wellness, and Well Being Economic Trends New Business Models Innovating to Zero Smart is the New Green Source: Frost & Sullivan NCDD-18 4
  5. 5. Executive Summary—Key Findings 1 Approximately 85% of the total population in the United States will live in urban regions by 2025, and US cities will expand to form Mega Regions and Mega Corridors. North America could see 3 Mega Cities, 11 Mega Region, and 7 Smart Cities by 2025. 2 In 2020, people above the age of 65 will account for nearly one-fifth of the population. Currently, more than 60% of new car purchases are made by people over 50 years of age. Increased connectivity among vehicles and road infrastructure will improve road safety, traffic congestion and reduce emissions. It paves the way for adoption of autonomous driving technologies. In the US market, vehicle-to vehicle (V2V) technology will see commercialization and increased market acceptance between 2015 and 2020 while infrastructure for the vehicle-to infrastructure (V2I) technology will become popular between 2020 and 2025. 3 4 The demand for seamless navigation, telematics, and entertainment drives the growth of connectivity in cars. By 2020, 90% of new cars will have some form of in-vehicle connectivity. 5 By 2025, 20% of global retailing will happen through online channels. It is expected that by 2015, more than 50% of global new car sales will be influenced by the Web, through online promotions, online research, the virtual showroom experience, and online purchasing. Source: Frost & Sullivan NCDD-18 5
  6. 6. Urbanization—North America to See 8 SMART Cities by 2025 Most of pilot projects, innovation, and leadership in the Smart Cities space are taking place in North America. Smart Cities, North America, 2025 North America will lead the world in new smart energy capacity in the next 3 years. The United States will lead the smart grid market in the next 3 years with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 30%–35%. Vancouver Calgary Toronto Seattle San Francisco Los Angeles Smart City New York Chicago The smart technology market in North America will grow by 40% by 2015. Nearly 35 smart technology projects are underway in North America. The smart building market opportunity is expected to peak in 2020. North America accounted for 29% of the smart building market in 2011 and is estimated to account for 30%– 35% in next few years. The United States is expected to lead in the smart transport market in North America. It plans to be the world's largest real-world test of smartvehicles. Source: Frost & Sullivan NCDD-18 6
  7. 7. Smart is the New Green—Smart Car The Smart Cloud is critical among the six key pillars of the smart car definition. Pillars of Smart Car Definition, US, 2012 Eco-driving aids eco driving analysis and information presentation to driver Outside the vehicle sensors, V2V, V2I, V2H, D2D, ADAS, crowd sourcing, cloud interaction Within the vehicle: multimodal HMI*— concerned with presentation of information to user Partnerships with Toyota, Ford and now Nissan for cloud usage Personal media such as iPod, iPhone, iPad bridging digital life style gaps in the car Device connectivity both for content and data pipe (tethered connectivity model) *HMI Human Machine Interface Note: Images are only for illustration. Source: Frost & Sullivan NCDD-18 7
  8. 8. Social Mega Trends—New Car Registrations by Age Group Baby boomers will continue to drive automotive demand in the United States. New Car Registrations by Age Group, US, 2001, 2002, 2007, and 2012 2001 Percentage of New Car Registrations 70% 62% 60% 48% 50% 40% 39% 40% 2002 2007 2012 Boomers account for 62% of the vehicles sold in the US in 2012 compared to 39% in 2001. Buyers aged between 18 and 34 are currently only 13% of the new-car market, down from 24% in 2001. 37% 36% 33% 30% 24% 24% 24% 20% 20% 13% 10% 0% 50 and older 35-49 Age Group 18-34 Note: Because of rounding the percentages may not add up to 100. Source: J.D Powers; Frost & Sullivan NCDD-18 8
  9. 9. Bricks and Clicks—Current Digital Car Retailing Trends in North America Digital Within Existing Model Unlike Europe, North American OEMs and dealers are pursuing digitization models through existing stores. Significant investments are being made in updating the store technology, training the staff, and digitally integrating various aspects of the car retailing process Greater focus on off-store digitization While some investment is being made in in-store tools such as tablets and kiosks, the key focus remains on the utilization and recalibration of off-store digital media such as websites, apps, and social media Lead Generation Key Digitization Objective Dealers are not using online and mobile platforms to sell vehicles. Rather, these media serve as the first touch point with the consumer. The key objective continues to be to attract the consumer to the dealership The evolutionary approach to technology in digital retailing dominates in North America. Source: Frost & Sullivan NCDD-18 9
  10. 10. For More Information: Jeannette Garcia Corporate Communications Automotive & Transportation (210) 477-8427 NCDD-18 10