Mega trends and Their Impact on Future of Mobility

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Megatrends, such as the change of social and consumer preferences, smart devices, new mobility business models like car sharing and a world where everything is connected and converging will impact the mobility provision of the future, which will have a transforming effect not only on automotive, but also other related industries.

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Mega trends and Their Impact on Future of Mobility

  1. 1. New Mega Trends Impact of Mega Trends on Future of MobilityCopyright : Frost & Sullivan. By All rights reserved. Sarwant Singh
  2. 2. Top Mega Trends Covered in the Research Urbanization Future Bricks andWhat is a Mega Trend? – City as a Customer Clicks Infrastructure Development Mega trends are Health, transformative, global Smart is the Innovating to Wellness and New Green Zero forces that define the Well Beingfuture world with their far reaching impact on New Business Future of business, societies, Social Trends Models: Value Mobility for Many economies, cultures and personal lives. Connectivity Beyond BRIC: and The Next Convergence Game Changers 2
  3. 3. Mega Trend 1:Urbanisation - “City as a Customer” 3
  4. 4. MegaMega Cities Regions Mega Corridor Mega Slums 4
  5. 5. Case Study: BOS-WASH Corridor to have 58.2 Million Population and To Account For 20% of United States GDP in 2025• Gross Metropolitan Product (2025): $2.6 Trillion• 18 Million new inhabitants in the next decade• Total volume on the corridor, including commuter service to increase from 250 million (2009) to 400 million (2030) riders per year• $300 Billion Five Year Plan To Upgrade Transport, Energy, Water, Telecom Infrastructure Announced (Feb 2011) 5
  6. 6. Over 26 Global Cities to be SMART Cities in 2025 - More than 50% of Smart cities of 2025 will be from Europe and North America Amsterdam Copenhagen Calgary Beijing Tokyo Vancouver Stockholm Oslo Helsinki London Berlin Toronto Paris Vienna Seattle New York BarcelonaSan Francisco Tianjin Chicago Los Angeles Wuhan Seoul Shenzhen Singapore Sydney Selected Smart Cities in 2025 Source: Siemens Green City Index, Forbes Smart City List, Innovation City Index, Specific Smart Project Websites for Each City, Frost & Sullivan, 2012 6
  7. 7. Cities, and Not Countries, Will DriveWealth Creation In the FutureCities like Seoul account for 50% of thecountry’s GDP; Budapest (Hungary) andBrussels (Belgium) each for roughly 45%.What are the Micro Implications?High Economic PowerHub and Spoke Business ModelTransit oriented developmentNew Mobility SolutionsCity as a Customer 7
  8. 8. Case Study : How Siemens Aligns Itself to Mega Trends Source : Siemens AG. All rights reserved 8
  9. 9. City as A Customer – What does it mean to Auto Industry? New urban Cars vehicle Connectivity designed City TaxisNew mobility technologies e.g. V2V and Flag-ship around Cities (perhaps business like Traffic V2I brick and and not cities Autonomou models Jam Assist, communicati click Stores s in future) designed Internet on around cars Radio Integrated door to door mobility solutions 9
  10. 10. Mega Trend 2:Smart is the New Green 10
  11. 11. Smart Car : 6 Key Pillars to the Smart Car Definition of Every OEM And The Cloud Is A Critical Component In The Same 1 Semi Autonomous and Eco-Driving Aids Eco driving analysis and information presentation to driver 6 2 Outside the Vehicle Sensors, V2V, V2I, V2H, D2D, Within the Vehicle ADAS, Crowd sourcing, Cloud Multimodal HMI – Interaction 5 3 Cloud Management Personal Media Toyota, Ford and now Nissan iPod, iPhone, iPad all also partnering for Cloud bridging digital life style gaps usage in car 4 Device Connectivity Both for content and data pipe (tethered connectivity model) 12
  12. 12. Mega Trend 3:Social Trends 13
  13. 13. Personal Surge in Robots Asian Work Pool Geo Gen YSocialization China - Hukou Middle System and Bulge One-Child Policy reforms “Girl Power” Ageing Reverse Population Brain Drain 14
  14. 14. Mega Trend 4:Connectivity & Convergence 15
  15. 15. 80 Billion Connected DevicesBy 2020 10 Connected Devices for Every Household by 2020 5 connected devices for every user by 2020 5 billion internet users by 2020 500 devices with unique digital IDs (Internet of things) per square kilometre by 2020Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012 16
  16. 16. Augmented RealityAugmented Reality (AR) is defined as a real-time augmented view of the environment through digital datathrough use of text, sound, graphics, video, and navigation systems that increases user’s interactivity with thelocal environment . This extends business and mobility options, social interactions and experiences which hasimplications on personal lives, businesses and even day-to-day activities. Reality Augmented Reality Augmented Virtuality Virtual World 17
  17. 17. Augmented Reality to Boost New Car SalesInnovative feature by automakers in coordination with graphics and design studios is likely to lure new carbuyers and increase car sales.Using webcam to view a 3D Using mobile app On gigantic Using mobile app version of the car on billboards computer VW used augmented reality to introduce the VW’s augmented reality McLaren shows off concept 2012 Beetle in Canada version of the Golf car via AR mobile appBMW launched the new Z4 KIA Optima Car in 3D Augmented AR Colour Head-Up campaign using AR Reality Display technology Frost & Sullivan analysis. Pictures : Various sources
  18. 18. Mega Trend 5:Bricks and Clicks 19
  19. 19. Bricks and Clicks: Global Online Retail Sales To Account for 16.6% of Total Retail Sales by 2020 and upto 25% in countries like US 2010 2020 Online sales as a percentage of total Online sales as a percentage of total Product Categories Digital Entertainment1 52% 62% Electronics 21% 43% Apparels & Accessories 10% 20% Food & Beverages 3% 16% Health/Wellness/Beauty 3% 12% Home & Garden 6% 8% Total Retail Sales $11 Trillion $15 Trillion Total Online Retail Sales $0.43 Trillion $2.5 Trillion1Books, Music and Videos 20 Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis
  20. 20. Evolution of Bricks and Clicks Model in New Car RetailingRetail Model Will Evolve From a Single/Multiple Channel to an Integrated Cross Channel Model Bricks (pre-2000) +Advent of Clicks (post-2010) Conventional dealership model Google search Mobile Apps Online car configurator The Future - Bricks and Clicks (2015 and Beyond) Interactive Stores Mobile Stores Flagship stores (motion sensor displays) (Ambient mobile retail) (modern retail) Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
  21. 21. Macro To Micro Implications of Bricks & ClicksAs automotive retailers adopt the bricks and clicks approach, showrooms will reduce insize, retailing will become omnichannel, and marketing increasingly digital New Car eRetailing: Macro To Micro of Bricks and Clicks, Global, 2011 and 2015 2011 2015 Macro to Micro Implication Before Clicks After Clicks Big-box Format OEMs to invest in flagship stores in Flagship stores major cities to boost brand image Car Showrooms Single-Channel Auto Retail Omnichannel (click based retail) In-store, online and mobile to integrate creating a ‘Omni channel’ shopping experience for new car buyers Car loan financing at dealerships Online Leasing /Finance M-Payment Users to increase by 16 percent exceeding the 1 billion mark by 2025 TV ads and Campaigns Social Media and Digital Campaigns New Marketing Solutions through new ‘social’ and interactive platforms at public places using kiosks Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis.
  22. 22. Mega Trend 6:Innovating to Zero 23
  23. 23. Examples of “Innovating to Zero” ; Car Industry Led With Carbon Neutral Factories, Zero Emission Cars, What Next ! - Energy efficient buildings Off-the-Grid Buildings - - Greener Transport On-site Energy Harvest - - Waste Reduction and Use of Intelligent Systems - Zero Energy Carbon Neutral Waste RecyclingIncrease use of renewable energy - Increase use of Renewable Net Zero Hospitals - Building City Energy Zero faults and zero - - Strong Health and Safetyerrors in manufacturing Measures Highly Strict Quality - - Safety Days (eg. Shell) Control Zero Accidents - Life-Saving Rules within Zero Defects facilities - Active safety systems in vehicles that over ride drivers Cutting Edge IT - - In-house design, cutting, Infrastructure and Services - finishing that convert Ideas to Zero Time Zero Design- - Continuous, speedy implementation on real-time Business To-Shelf deliveries Instant File Sharing - Incubation (Retail) - Direct point-of-sale data Networking Interfaces - collection, Zero Management Gaps - - Daily analysis of product Zero Processing Time- sales and customer Zero Learning Gaps- feedback using software analyticsSource: Frost & Sullivan, 2012 24
  24. 24. Mega Trend 7:New Business Models: Value for Many 25
  25. 25. Personalization & Customization Nike (or BMW Personalization and with options) Customization Co-Creation Quirky .com New Business Models Pay as you go Unmanned Aerial One-off Experience Vehicles (red letter Days or (or PAYD BMW on Demand) Insurance) 26Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012
  26. 26. Free + Premium “Value for Many” = Freemium Will Replace “Value for Money”Source: Frost & Sullivan, 2012 27
  27. 27. Global Vehicle Platforms By 2020 key 12 global OEM groups with their total 154 platforms will account for nearly 74 percent of the global vehicle productionGlobal Automotive Industry Vision: Global Vehicle Platform Summary, Global, 2010 and 2020 PQ35, XV, E B, B0 Gamma, HD, Global C, SR1, PF1, Vista, PL2, W, MRA B, MQB Delta 3 HD Global C C-EVO BVH1 Ace PL2 Basic 35 33 32 30 30 27 27 27 25 23 Total No. Of Platforms 20 18 2010 Average = 18.6 Platforms 17 15 15 14 13 13 2020 Average = 12.8 Platforms 12 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 6 6 5 3 0 Toyota Group BMW Group General Motors Group Fiat-Chrysler Group Tata Group Daimler Group Geely Group PSA Group Volkswagen Group Ford Group Hyundai Group Renault-Nissan Group 2010 2020 2010 Key Platform, 2020 Key Platform Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2010. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 28
  28. 28. Mega Trend 8:Economic Trends 29
  29. 29. The Next Game Changers in 2025 Russia $6,189 Billion Turkey $1,167 Poland Billion $2,441 $38,526 Billion Billion China $2,827 $653 Billion Billion $6,235 Thailand Billion $772 Egypt $323 Brazil Billion Billion Vietnam Mexico India $483 $5,437 Billion BRIC Nations $4,816 Billion Billion Philippines Next Game Changers $811 Billion Indonesia $1,098 Billion ArgentinaNote : The figure denotes GDP at market South Africaprices. Forecasts to 2025 have beenextrapolated based on Nominal GDPgrowth rate projections . Source: International Monetary Fund. Oxford Economics, Frost & Sullivan, 2012
  30. 30. Mega Trend 9:Health, Wellness and Wellbeing 31
  31. 31. The 3 Cornerstones - The Body, Mind and Soul - Contribute To Humans Definition of Health, Wellness and Well Being Mood Stress levels Mental health Sense of optimism Attitude Security Safety Sight / vision Personal values Touch & feel Personal fulfilment Smell / breathing Self image / self Sound actualisation Temperature WellnessSource: Frost & Sullivan, 2012 32
  32. 32. Is Health Wellness and Wellbeing in Cars a Myth or a Reality?At the Tokyo Auto Show in Oct 2007, Toyota unveiled the 2007 RiN promoted as a Healthy Living vehicledesigned to make its’ driver feel at ease contributing to a healthier mental state and well being. “Increased comfort and Ergonomic seats: serene, healthy living” Oxygen-level maintain and control posture conditioner and humidifier Heated seats: provide comfort Green tinted glazing to reduce Steering wheel infiltration of UV changes colour and infrared light; based on driver’s green colour mood. portrays harmony with nature Light distribution Sliding doors and control headlights longer windows to intended to be view nature from the “Promotes a healthier easier on the eye for ground up. well-being” pedestrians and -Toyota Manufacturer oncoming traffic. 33
  33. 33. Mega Trend 10:Future of Mobility 34 34 34
  34. 34. Future Innovation in Mobility to Focus on The “Wild” Side Technology Innovation Wild Innovation Traffic Prediction system Mobility IntegrationUnknown Parking Search assistance New Mobility ProductsSolutions Cashless Payment Motorized Mover Two seated Electric Car Improvement Application Innovation Micro cars Car Sharing Known Electric Cars Car PoolingSolutions Electric Bikes Bike Sharing Met Needs Unmet Needs 35
  35. 35. Micro Mobility Solutions Market To Explode in FutureOpen-top models are largely there to target conventional bicycle, engine-driven scooter and motorcycle users; while the closed-tops are targeted at conventional car users One-wheeled One-wheeled Two-wheeled Two-wheeled Two-wheeled One-seating One-seating One-standing One-standing One-seating Motorcycle-type Bike-type Segway-type Bike-type OPEN - TOPTwo-wheeled Three-wheeled Three-wheeled Three-wheeled Four-wheeled Two-seating One-standing One-seating One-seating One-seatingSegway-type Scooter-type Motorcycle-type Scooter-type Wheelchair-typeThree-wheeled Three-wheeled Four-wheeled Four-wheeled Four-wheeled CLOSED - TOP One-seating One-seating One-seating Tandem Two-seating Three-seating Scooter-type Sports bike-Type Car-type Car-type Car-type 36
  36. 36. Overview of Micro Mobility Models by Key Global Mainstream OEMs About 125 micro mobility models announced by various stakeholders globally , 50% to go into production GM Ford Chrysler Renault VW Audi BMW Daimler Fiat PSA Hyundai Honda Toyota Nissan Suzuki Geely One-Wheel 4 P P P P P P P Two-Wheel P P P P P P P P 35 P P P P P P P P Three-Wheel P P P P P 35 P P P P P Four-Wheel P P P 37 P P P P P P P PTotal 4 4 1 5 8 7 12 4 2 20 10 13 7 7 5 2 111 Images: Only for illustration, Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis.P = Production ready 37
  37. 37. The Future of Mobility Is Multi-Modal Commuting, Combining Door to Door Solutions Using Dedicated Mobility Platforms Intercity Intercity Train Suburbs TRAVEL DISTANCE Intercity Bus Private Cars Shared Mobility City Shared Mobility Public Transportation Micro-mobility Destination TRAVEL DISTANCE Door to door integrated, multi-mobility a reality in future Vehicle manufacturers to offer smart mobility solutions ensuring first and last mile connectivity. Government to club public transport with bike / two wheeler/car rental schemes Market will see new players in market termed as “Mobility Integrators” Source: Frost & Sullivan 38
  38. 38. Examples of Mobility Integrators Today Parking Long distance Car Leasing and Car-Sharing Public Transport Others Management travel Car Car Bike Tele- Car Sharing Leasing Rentals Scooter Intra- Inter- Bike Car Company Name (Cycle) Taxi Ferries Trains Flight Refuel conferen Others (Traditional) (Long- (Short- renting City City Sheds Parking Renting cing term) term)OperatorsTransportCompanies Car Leasing Companies Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 39
  39. 39. Urban Logistics – To be $9.8Trillion MarketMore Bundling, Intermodality and Microdistribution in Urban Areas Types of Urban DistributionUrban Consolidation Urban Transhipment Urban Intermodal Mobile Depots / Freight Centres Areas Hubs Buses Types of Urban Last-mile Deliveries Microdistribution Locker Boxes Mobile Collection Postal (Parcel) Service 40
  40. 40. So what will the future look like in 20251. We will start witnessing robots in homes2. Digital Assistants will guide our everyday lives3. Cars to have many autonomous functions which will provide advanced driver assistance functions4. Most Automotive factories will be carbon neutral5. You will most likely drive in a city which wants to be Smart or Sustainable6. Cars will have multiple devices monitoring our well being7. A Chinese OEM will be in the top 10 41
  41. 41. From Macro to Micro: Taking Mega Trends from Information to Strategy Implementation To Macro Micro Mega Trend Analysis of Opportunities andSelected trends that impact your business and markets Unmet Needs Sub Trend Impact on Future Product/ A sub-layer of trends that has a Technology wide ranging impact Impact to Your Industry Visualising the roadmap of these critical forces through scenario- building and macro economic forecasts 42
  42. 42. Next UM 3.0 Event – 19 and 20 June 20132 Day Event with First Day hosted in House of Parliament as a Parliamentary Debate http://www.urbanmobility.gilcommunity.com/
  43. 43. Learn More About “New Mega Trends” Upcoming Book: New Mega Trends Implications for our Future Lives By Sarwant Singh Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan http://www.palgrave.com/products/title.aspx?pid=5774 23 Join Our Mega Trend and Mobility Group On 1. Mega Trends: Strategic Planning and Innovation Based on Frost & Sullivan Research 2. Future of Mobility 44
  44. 44. Contact Information Sarwant Singh Partner & Practice Director, Visionary Innovation Research Group and Automotive & Transportation (+44) 2079157843, (+44) 7961 771 545 sarwant.singh@frost.com Copyright : Frost & Sullivan. All rights reserved.Please seek permission before distribution or use of any images or information 45

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