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Market Impact of Solid State Lighting Technologies

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Listen On Demand:
https://www.brighttalk.com/webcast/5564/86551

The future of lighting, led by LED lighting, will be determined by changes in the demographics of world population, urbanization, and greater emphasis on energy conservation. This briefing will investigate the key focus areas and trends in LED lighting across the globe.

Why you should listen On Demand:

- To identify the key adoption factors for LED lighting
- To learn about the R&D focus areas in LED
- To identify technology convergence scenarios and new product development opportunities in LED lighting

Published in: Technology, Business
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Market Impact of Solid State Lighting Technologies

  1. 1. Market Impact of Solid State Lighting Technologies Disruptive LED and High-Tech Control Technologies Set to HighRe-invent Lighting Re- Mousumi Dasgupta & Sumit Kumar Pal, Research Analysts, Technical Insights © 2013 Frost & Sullivan. All rights reserved. This document contains highly confidential information and is the sole property of Frost & Sullivan. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, copied or otherwise reproduced without the written approval of Frost & Sullivan.
  2. 2. Mousumi Dasgupta Functional Expertise • • Detailed oriented analytical and research skills which includes market and technology analysis within the Automation and Electronics domain. • Generating research service reports and technical alerts. • Track and analyze the technological trends in nanotechnology, microelectronics and sensor technology. • Proficiency at tracking latest upcoming technologies and their impact on the global business scenario. • Have provided market intelligence and insights to clients including competitive market strategies & recommendations. • Proficiency at grasping new technical concepts quickly & utilizing it in a productive manner.. Industry Expertise Mousumi Dasgupta Research Analyst Automation and Electronics Experience base covering broad range of developments in the field of sensors, leveraging long-standing working relationships with industry participants as well as university researchers. - Sensors - Microelectronics What I bring to the Team • Frost & Sullivan South Asia Kolkata, India Technical expertise in the field of automation & electronics. Career Highlights • Research Analyst in Automation and Electronics – Technical Insights group of Frost & Sullivan since 2011. Education • • • Masters of Technology in Instrumentation & Control Engineering from University College of Science & Technology, Calcutta University, India. Bachelor of Technology in Instrumentation & Control Engineering from University College of Science & Technology, Calcutta University, India. Bachelor of Science in Physics from Lady Brabourne College, Calcutta University. 2
  3. 3. Sumit Kumar Pal Functional Expertise • • Detailed oriented analytical and research skills which includes market and technology analysis within the Automation and Electronics domain. Generating research service reports and technical alerts. Industry Expertise • Experience base covering a broad range of sectors, leveraging long-standing working relationships with leading industry participants’ Senior Executives in • Sensors • Microelectronics What I bring to the Team Sumit Kumar Pal Research Analyst Technical Insights Frost & Sullivan GIC Chennai • • • Technical expertise in Electronics and Instrumentation Strong Problem Solving and Analytical Skills Presentation Skills Career Highlights Research Associate in Automation & Electronics – Technical Insights group of Frost & Sullivan since April 2012 Education Post Graduate Programme in Business Management from Praxis Business School, Kolkata, India Bachelor of Technology from Future institute of Engineering and Management, West Bengal University of Technology, Kolkata, India 3
  4. 4. Agenda LED Lighting – Industry Overview Promising Growth of LED Lighting Revenue Forecast Key Application Areas and YOI Challenges and Initiatives Focus Areas IP Innovation Timeline New Opportunities -- Convergence Scenario Impact of Megatrends Emerging Market Needs Conclusion 4
  5. 5. LED Lighting LED light source is regarded as a viable alternative for incandescent bulbs, fluorescent lights and HID (high-intensity discharge) lamps due to its enhanced performance and longer life time. Currently electricity generation is one of the main factors contributing to greenhouse emissions and lighting consumes about 1/5th of the total electricity produced. A conservative study published by DOE (Department of Energy) states that LEDs have the potential to reduce yearly electricity consumption by 190 terawatts-hours in United States (US). LEDs can thus further reduce greenhouse gas by at least 10% over the next 5 to 10 years. According to the latest United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) report, LEDs have the potential to save US $108 billion dollar by 2030 and reduce CO2 produced by 110.98 million cars. Overview Market Impact Supported by government initiatives and legislations, LEDs are expected to be adopted in public lighting by 2015. Residential applications depend on many divergent factors such as size, efficiency and price and wide scale adoption is expected by 2020. Significance Benefits High energy efficiency potential Light intensity control Long lifespan Directionality Durability 5
  6. 6. Energy Efficient Lighting Why LEDs Promise Dramatic Growth Moving Towards Higher Efficiency Incandescent Lamp Metal Halides Fluorescents LED lamps/retrofits Highly Inefficient LED Fixtures Highly Efficient The LED Promise Advanced solid‐state lighting ‐ could cut present‐day electricity ‐ consumption by about 70%. 6
  7. 7. Global Adoption Scenario Regional Market Lifecycle Analysis LED Lighting Market: Per Cent of Revenues by Geographical Regions (World), 2011 and 2015 100% 6.1 5 Europe 90% 80% 70% Japan and China dominate the global market share with a technological edge and large population, respectively. Europe is leading the developed world in the adoption of LED, which will witness a marked increase in penetration into overall lighting. 41 49.5 North America The US and Canada constitute the fastest growing region, especially in the commercial and industrial, and the retail and hospitality sectors. 50% 25.3 40% 30% 20.8 20% 10% Asia 23.6 28.7 ROW Market Penetration 60% In the Middle-East and Africa (MEA) and Southeast Asia (SEA), the growth in tourism, trade and construction industries has driven the commercial LED market. 0% 2011 2015 Development Growth Maturity Time Decline Source: Market participants and Frost & Sullivan analysis. 7
  8. 8. Where is the LED Opportunity – Key Application Areas Commercial Lighting Public Lighting Street, Tunnel and Roadway Lighting Public Parking Office Lighting Museum Lighting Retail, Hotel and Restaurant Lighting Architectural Lighting 2013 YOI 2020 2013 2020 Residential Lighting Industrial Lighting Production Floor Hazardous Location/Sites YOI Under Cabinet/Shelf Recess Lighting Warehouse Mood and Decorative Lighting 2013 YOI 2020 2013 YOI 2020 8
  9. 9. However, Penetration is Still <10% Penetration Challenge 2012 Global Electricity Consumption by Lighting and LED Penetration Replace ment Retrofit Lamps fixtures 58 New installa tions 77.0% Strategic direction of the market, key developments 16 10 Other Operati ng hours 9 23.0% Lighting Incandescent 7 Flouroscent CFL LED Others Global lighting market is significantly underpenetrated by LEDs Lighting presents a vast opportunity to reduce energy consumption Drivers & Restraints, Technological and economic trends Total Market for LEDs in General Lighting Source: Market participants and Frost & Sullivan analysis. Low penetration attributed to the nascent stage of LED technology and the dominance of other technologies in lighting. Market penetration for LED lighting will increase when LED products can truly compete with incumbent products on price and performance. Technology is key to increasing penetration of LEDs 9
  10. 10. Challenges Hindering Adoption High Initial Cost Low Awareness Technical Challenges Lack of Standards Challenges Capital Investment Dominance of Fluorescents Impact Low Medium High 10
  11. 11. Key Initiatives and Trends in Addressing Challenges Although the challenges cited relating to the newness of the technology are certainly cause for concern, the biggest disadvantage right now is still the product's high price. Based on its soaring popularity so far, it looks like the market has decided the pros outweigh the cons. High Initial Costs Advanced materials and sophisticated components across the LED supply chain lower lamp and LED package costs dramatically. Efficacy Improvement -- Department of Energy estimates placing commercial LED efficiency as high as 258 lumens per watt by 2020 R&D to address thermal management Awareness Technology Issues Governments at all levels making LED and smart control market acceleration a policy priority, to remove the final obstacles and catalyze transformative scale-up. Global venture capital investments in lighting have been steadily increasing over the past four years Investment Scenario 11
  12. 12. Technology Focus Areas Innovation Timelines Based on Patent Activity LED fixtures LED lamps and modules Thermal Management/ Heat Sinks Drivers and Controls Substrates and Packaging Materials, Phosphors General lighting already penetrated by LED lights; retrofit market continues to grow with large participants developing IP Installations Shift from light source replacement to new fixture installations Improving durability at higher temperatures – interface materials, mounted sinks or vent holes can offer results Disaggregation of driver functionality into submodules; Improve electrical efficiency– enables building automation Lower production costs through new substrate materials; Downsizing LED packages Luminescence emitting phosphors for high extraction; Improving luminous efficacy 2015 2017 2020 12
  13. 13. Convergence Scenario #1 Convergence with Internet of Things Industry Initiatives • GreenWave offers its own Connected Lighting, Home Monitoring and Energy Management services. Microchips Communication Technology Connected Lighting with LED lights being controlled via Smartphones • Philips has introduced Hue, a Wi-Fi-enabled LED lighting system that allows the user to control power, color, and brightness of the lighting system through one’s mobile device. Year of Impact– 2018 2019 • Widescale adoption is expected to happen around 2019 13
  14. 14. Convergence Scenario #2 Building Automation Energy Harvesting LED Lighting Building Management System Industry Initiatives • • Wireless Sensors • • Occupancy Ambient Light Various companies are working on energy harvesting for indoor sensors. Key initiative have been taken by the Enocean Alliance to realize a platform for product development Year of Impact: 2017 • Widescale adoption is expected to happen around 2017 14
  15. 15. Impact on Mega Trends Impact - High Urbanization Social Trends Impact - Medium “Smart” is the New Green Beyond BRIC: The Next Game Changers Impact - Low Connectivity and Convergence Health, Wellness, and WellBeing 15
  16. 16. Market Needs & Emerging Technologies Market Needs Technologies which have implications on the overall cost and impact wider segments, especially the residential sector will become more important. Improving light source efficacy through • New substrate technologies • Chip design alternatives Technology Focus Areas GaN on Silicon Remote Phosphor Chip on Board (COB) Consumers are increasingly being interested in controlling lights as per their moods/thoughts and thus it is creating an opportunity embedded intelligence in the form of wireless drivers/microcontrollers. Flip Chip Embedded Intelligence/ Smart Lighting 16
  17. 17. Analyst Insights • • • Differentiation at the chip & packaging level influences technical advancements further down the value chain. Most Tier 1 R&D players are focusing on research in the Chip / Packaging level. The reasons attributed are substrates offer biggest productivity gains and packaging is the area offering biggest cost reduction in the long run. “ValueValueAdded” Lighting CostCost-Down Approach Integrated controls and Internet of Things (IoT) are generating a lot of interest, especially with the advancement of Home/Building Automation. Smart functions has the potential to increase beyond the forecasted period. There is significant Research happening especially by new companies like Daintree Networks on the controllers but this is going to be a niche area in the timeframe analyzed. However Smart functions has the potential to increase beyond the forecasted period. 17
  18. 18. Next Steps Develop Your Visionary and Innovative Skills Growth Partnership Service Share your growth thought leadership and ideas or join our GIL Global Community Join our GIL Community Newsletter Keep abreast of innovative growth opportunities Phone: 1-877-GOFROST (463-7678) Email: myfrost@frost.com 18
  19. 19. Your Feedback is Important to Us What would you like to see from Frost & Sullivan? Growth Forecasts? Competitive Structure? Emerging Trends? Strategic Recommendations? Other? Please inform us by “Rating” this presentation. 19
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  21. 21. For Additional Information Liz Clark Corporate Communications Energy & Environment (210) 477-8483 Liz.clark@frost.com Nicolas Votano Sales Director Technical Insights (212) 402-1813 Nicolas.votano@frost.com Angie Montoya Marketing Webinar Coordinator Marketing (210) 414-3395 amontoya@frost.com 21

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