Key Passenger Car OEMs to Launch More Than 100 Micro-Mobility Vehicles by 2020

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A analyst presentation about key passenger car OEMs and plans to launch more than 100 micro-mobility cars by the year 2020.

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Key Passenger Car OEMs to Launch More Than 100 Micro-Mobility Vehicles by 2020

  1. 1. Key Passenger Car OEMs to Launch More Than 100 Micro-Mobility Vehicles by 2020 Micro- The Rise of a Next-Generation Sustainable Mobility Next- Vishwas Shankar, Industry Analyst Automotive & Transportation 17 April 2012© 2012 Frost & Sullivan. All rights reserved. This document contains highly confidential information and is the sole property ofFrost & Sullivan. No part of it may be circulated, quoted, copied or otherwise reproduced without the written approval of Frost & Sullivan.
  2. 2. Today’s Presenter Vishwas Shankar Industry Analyst – Automotive & Transportation Frost & Sullivan Experience base covers a wide range of industry sectors, forming long standing relationships with senior executives in the • Microcars • Electric Vehicles • Micro-Mobility •Carsharing More than nine years of total work experience including working with Indian and multi- national passenger car original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) 2
  3. 3. Focus Points 1 Introduction to Micro-Mobility – Definition and Segmentation 2 Comparative Analysis of Micro-Mobility Models 3 OEMs Launch Strategies and Micro-Mobility Model Homologations 4 Consumer Perception about Micro-Mobility 5 Conclusions and Strategic Recommendations 3
  4. 4. Objectives of the Research Introduction to Global Micro-Mobility Market Provide insight into market participants and their Analyse market drivers of the micro-mobility target models market Comparative Benchmarking of Micro-Mobility Models Analyse the market segmentation and target Understand launch markets and homologation customers types Understand the Competency levels in the System Analyse the level of intelligence in the system Analyse the level of technology in the system Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis. 4
  5. 5. Micro-Mobility Analysed In-depth as a Part of Global Mega Trends thatwill Impact Mobility in the Future New Micro- Urbanization E-Mobility Mega and Smart Cities Mobility products Car Sustainable Public Integrated Mobility New Business Models Sharing/Car Transportation and Solutions (Value for Many) Pooling BRT High Speed Rail Geo-Socialization Connected and Power to the Middle Class And Social Media Wireless Planet and Gen Y Images: Only for illustration, Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis. 5
  6. 6. About 154 Micro-Mobility Models––How Many Do You Know? Each micro-mobility vehicle is either targeted at a conventional car or a two-wheeler user and conceptualized as an open- or closed-top modelOne-wheeled One-wheeled Two-wheeled Two-wheeled Two-wheeledOne-seating One-standing One-standing One-standing One-seating Bike-type Segway-type Bike-type OPEN - TOPTwo-wheeled Two-wheeled Three-wheeled Three-wheeled Three-wheeled Two-seating Four-seating One-standing One-seating One-seatingSegway-type Segway-type Scooter-type Motorcycle-type Wheelchair-typeThree-wheeled Three-wheeled Four-wheeled Four-wheeled Four-wheeled CLOSED - TOP One-seating Two-seating One-seating Two-seating Three-seating Motorcycle-type Car-type Car-type Car-type Images: Only for illustration, Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis. 6
  7. 7. Market SegmentationThe electric, closed-top, four-wheeled models are currently popular among end-users; targeted at privateownership for city-driving Micro-Mobility Market: Market Segmentation, Global, 2011 Micro-Mobility Market Solutions Based on Number of Based on Targeted Based on VehicleSource of Vehicle Power Based on Business Model Wheels Commute Construction Private Open top Human One City driving ownership Petrol Two** ** Last mile connectivity Shared ownership Closed-top Any other Any other Any other Diesel Three type type type Electric Four Hybrid* * Any other type * Includes human hybrid vehicles ** Includes passenger car OEMs and unconventional two- wheeled cycles, scooters, motorcycles from two-wheeler Any other OEMs type Images: Only for illustration, Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis. 7
  8. 8. Market Drivers Emerging new mobility pattern and changing car ownership among the key drivers for growth Micro-Mobility Market: Key Market Drivers, Global, 2012–2018 New Mobility Convenient Ways Declining Car Urbanization Innovations in Pattern to of Commuting Ownership in Leading to Battery, Motors, Help Ease Targeted by Developed Development of and Other Commutes Developing Nations Regions New Mobility Vehicle Parts SolutionsDriversDrivers Denotes current impact Denotes long-term impact Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 8
  9. 9. Key Mainstream Market Participants and their Target Models More than 111 models targeted by global passenger car OEMs in the micro-mobility market and nearly 50 percent of them to be production ready before 2015 Micro-Mobility Market: Key Mainstream Participants and Target Models, Global, 2008–2018 OEM GM Ford Chrysler Renault VW Audi BMW Daimler Fiat PSA Hyundai Honda Toyota Nissan Suzuki Geely One-Wheel North American European Asian Two-Wheel 1Vehicle Type Three-Wheel 4 Four-Wheel 1 P = Production ready Images: Only for illustration, Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis. 9
  10. 10. Comparative Analysis—Vehicle Type vs. Maximum Driving Range Driving range of micro-mobility models expected to be as high as 125 miles and as low as 4 miles. Micro-Mobility Market: Vehicle Type vs. Driving Range, Global, 2011–2018 135 32–125 miles 120 •BMW Simple •Ford Achen 2015 T 105 •Icona E3WM 90Range (Miles) 75 •T3Motion ESV 7–62 miles 10–63 miles •BMW e-scoot •Peugeot e- •Renault Twizy •Opel Rak–e 60 vivacity •Ford ebike 45 •Audi Urban Concept •Ford Deakin 2015 T2 •VW Nils 30 •Hyundai Eccov •Chrysler Peapod based •GM EN-V •VW e-Scooter 4–16 miles •Honda EV-Neo •Suzuki e-Let’s •SegwayEV–Monpal 15 •Ryno bike •Honda Puma •Audi A0 •VW Bik.e •Toyota Mobiro •Toyota Winglet •Segway Centaur 0 •Honda u3-x One-wheel Two-wheel Three-wheel Four-wheel Vehicle Type Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 10
  11. 11. Target Customers Target customers include city commuters as well as last-mile connectivity end-users. Micro-Mobility Market: Target Customers, Global, 2011–2018 Four-wheel 82 models Number of Wheels Three-wheel Three 30 modelsOne-wheel Two-wheel One-wheel Two-wheel Three-wheel Four-wheel Number of Wheels Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 11
  12. 12. Launch Markets China to lead from the front followed by Europe and other global regions Micro-Mobility Market: Hot Spots, Global, 2012–2018 Europe 25 Models Planned China 30 Models Planned United States India ASEAN* Hot Markets* Association of Southeast Asian Nations Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 12
  13. 13. Launch TimingAbout 71 models production-ready (from passenger car OEMs and non-passenger car OEMs); Nearly 50percent of them target short-term market entry Micro-Mobility Market: Models Launch Plans and Roadmap, Global, 2011–2018 14 23 34ModelPenetration Short-term Launch Midterm Launch Long-term Launch 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Year Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 13
  14. 14. Micro-Mobility Homologation Type Homologation of global micro-mobility models range from Sub-A, Quadricycles, Bikes/Scooters, Unicycle/Monocycle to even entirely new classification types Micro-Mobility Market: Key Models Launch Markets, Timing, Prices, and Homologation, Global, 2011–2018 OEM Model Key Markets Homologation Type GM RAKe Europe Sub-A Renault Twizy Europe Quadricycle VW Bik.e Asia Bike/Scooter BMW City Sailor Asia Bike/Scooter Fiat Mio FC III Europe Sub-A Peugeot E-Vivacity Europe Bike/Scooter Unicycle/Monocycle (New Honda u3-x Asia Classification) Toyota Winglet Asia TBA (New Classification) Nissan Pivo3 Asia QuadricycleTBA – To be Announced Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 14
  15. 15. Level of Intelligence in the System Steering wheels have been the primary focus of interest among European and North American passenger car OEMs while Asian passenger car OEMs are interested in Joysticks over handlebars or steering wheel Micro-Mobility Market: Percent of Key Passenger Car OEMs Models by Steering Type, Global, 2011TBA—To be announced for steering type Note: All figures are rounded. The base year is 2011. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis 15
  16. 16. Level of Technology in the System Ten out of 16 passenger car OEMs have announced foldable models; North American passenger car OEMs have no foldable models. Micro-Mobility Market: Key Passenger Car OEMs by Model Foldability, Global, 2011–2018TBA—To be announced for Foldability Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 16
  17. 17. Mobility Tracker Consumer Research StudyFindings from the consumer research where approximately 28,000 participants interviewed in 23 citiesglobally indicate key four solutions targeted for improved speed of commute over individual car transport. Micro-Mobility Market: Mobility Tracker Consumer Research Study—Key Facts, Global, 2011 Solution Considered Usage Reasons for Acceptance Top Mode to be replace Top Occasion Top Cities 1. Environmentally 1. Walking (59.0%) 1. To a store 1. Jakarta friendly (20.0%) 2. Individual (53.0%) 2. To work 2. ShanghaiMotorized 42.0% 2. Improves Speed 3. Public (33.0%) 3. Entertainment 3. BeijingMover (14.0%) or leisure 4. New Delhi 3. Economic (14.0%) 5. Mexico City 1. Environmentally 1. Individual (64.0%) 1. To work 1. Shanghai friendly (24.0%) 2. Walking (48.0%) 2. To a store 2. BeijingMotorized 39.0% 2. Economic (15.0%) 3. Public (35.0%) 3. Entertainment 3. JakartaChair 3. Convenient (12.0%) or leisure 4. New Delhi 5. Rio 1. Environmentally 1. Individual (71.0%) 1. To work 1. JakartaCovered friendly (23.0%) 2. Walking (35.0%) 2. To a store 2. ShanghaiTwo 49.0% 3. Beijing 2. Economic (17.0%) 3. Public (42.0%) 3. EntertainmentWheeler 3. Convenient (13.0%) or leisure 4. Rio 5. Mexico City 1. Environmentally 1. Individual (74.0%) 1. To work 1. Jakarta friendly (28.0%) 2. Public (42.0%) 2. To a store 2. ShanghaiCompact 52.0% 2. Economic (22.0%) 3. Walking (29.0%) 3. To see friends 3. BeijingEVs 3. Convenient (11.0%) or family 4. Mexico City 5. New Delhi Important takeaway facts from the tracker research Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 17
  18. 18. Key Conclusions and Future Outlook By 2018, more than 50 models by key global mainstream OEMs are expected to enter1 production and a majority of these vehicles are targeted at short-distance commutes. 55 percent models (by volume) and from global mainstream OEMs are expected to be2 open-top models, with European OEMs alone expected to account for nearly 70 of these open-top models. Initial level findings indicate that two-wheeled micro-mobility models account for nearly3 40 percent of sales volumes and three-wheeled models to account for another 35 percent by 2018 among key mainstream vehicle OEMs. Source: Frost & Sullivan analysis. 18
  19. 19. Next StepsDevelop Your Visionary and Innovative Skills Growth Partnership Service Share your growth thought leadership and ideas or join our GIL Global Community Join our GIL Community Newsletter Keep abreast of innovative growth opportunities 19
  20. 20. Your Feedback is Important to Us What would you like to see from Frost & Sullivan?Growth Forecasts?Competitive Structure?Emerging Trends?Strategic Recommendations?Other? Please inform us by “Rating” this presentation. 20
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  22. 22. For Additional InformationKatja Feick Vishwas ShankarCorporate Communications Industry AnalystAutomotive & Transportation Automotive & Transportation+49 (0) 69 7703343 +91 44 6681 4255katja.feick@frost.com VishwasS@frost.comSarwant Singh Cyril CromierPartner Sales DirectorGlobal A&T Europe+44 207 915 7843 +33 1 42 81 22 44sarwant.singh@frost.com cyril.cromier@frost.com 22

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