Global mega trends and their impact on business, cultures and societies podcast 2

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This briefing will set the stage for visionary thinking by identifying the most important global mega trends, potential scenarios of specific trends in 2020, and the implications of these mega trends in transforming society, markets and cultures.

A thorough analysis of the mega trends and their implications is a vital component of a company’s future strategy, development and innovation process, and impacts product and technology planning.

Here are 3 reasons why you should not miss this briefing:

Gain insights into the global pertinent forces of the future which will impact your business, society, cultures and personal lives

Recognize why these mega trends are macroeconomic forces of development for our future world and its increasing rate of change

Understand why these mega trends are critical in helping you gain a strategic vision, capitalize on the infinite emerging opportunities and the needs of the future customer

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  • US appoints first cyber warfare generalPentagon creates specialist online unit to counter cyber attack amid growing fears of militarisation of the internetThe Pentagon is channelling a growing volume of troops and resources into countering cyber warfare.The US military has appointed its first senior general to direct cyber warfare – despite fears that the move marks another stage in the militarisation of cyberspace.The newly promoted four-star general, Keith Alexander, takes charge of the Pentagon's ambitious and controversial new Cyber Command, designed to conduct virtual combat across the world's computer networks. He was appointed on Friday afternoon in a low-key ceremony at Fort Meade, in Maryland.The creation of America's most senior cyber warrior comes just days after the US air force disclosed that some 30,000 of its troops had been re-assigned from technical support "to the frontlines of cyber warfare".The creation of Cyber Command is in response to increasing anxiety over the vulnerability of the US's military and other networks to a cyber attack.Cyber-warfare 'is growing threat‘Cyber-warfare attacks, such as the targeting of activists' emails in China recently, are a growing threat, according to security experts. Cyber-warfare attacks on military infrastructure, government and communications systems, and financial markets pose a rapidly growing but little understood threat to international security and could become a decisive weapon of choice in future conflicts between states, the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies warned yesterday.IISS director-general John Chipman said: "Despite evidence of cyber attacks in recent political conflicts, there is little appreciation internationally of how to assess cyber-conflict. We are now, in relation to the problem of cyber-warfare, at the same stage of intellectual development as we were in the 1950s in relation to possible nuclear war."The warning accompanied yesterday's publication of the Military Balance 2010, the IISS's annual assessment of global military capabilities and defence economics. The study also highlighted a series of other security threats, including the war in Afghanistan, China's military diversification, the progress of Iran's suspect nuclear programme, and the impact of terrorist groups in Iraq and elsewhere.Future state-on-state conflict, as well as conflicts involving non-state actors such as al-Qaida, would increasingly be characterised by reliance on asymmetric warfare techniques, chiefly cyber-warfare, Chipman said. Hostile governments could hide behind rapidly advancing technology to launch attacks undetected. And unlike conventional and nuclear arms, there were no agreed international controls on the use of cyber weapons."Cyber-warfare [may be used] to disable a country's infrastructure, meddle with the integrity of another country's internal military data, try to confuse its financial transactions or to accomplish any number of other possibly crippling aims," he said. Yet governments and national defence establishments at present have only limited ability to tell when they were under attack, by whom, and how they might respond.Cyber-warfare typically involves the use of illegal exploitation methods on the internet, corruption or disruption of computer networks and software, hacking, computer forensics, and espionage. Reports of cyber-warfare attacks, government-sponsored or otherwise, are rising. Last month Google launched an investigation into cyber attacks allegedly originating in China that it said had targeted the email accounts of human rights activists.In December the South Korean government reported an attack in which it said North Korean hackers may have stolen secret defence plans outlining the South Korean and US strategy in the event of war on the Korean peninsula. Last July, espionage protection agents in Germany said the country faced "extremely sophisticated" Chinese and Russian internet spying operations targeting industrial secrets and critical infrastructure such as Germany's power grid.One of the most notorious cyber-warfare offensives to date took place in Estonia in 2007 when more than 1 million computers were used to jam government, business and media websites. The attacks, widely believed to have originated in Russia, coincided with a period of heightened bilateral political tension. They inflicted damage estimated in the tens of millions of euros of damage.China last week accused the Obama administration of waging "online warfare" against Iran by recruiting a "hacker brigade" and manipulating social media such as Twitter and YouTube to stir up anti-government agitation.The US Defence Department's Quadrennial Defence Review, published this week, also highlighted the rising threat posed by cyber-warfare on space-based surveillance and communications systems."On any given day, there are as many as 7 million DoD (Department of Defence) computers and telecommunications tools in use in 88 countries using thousands of war-fighting and support applications. The number of potential vulnerabilities, therefore, is staggering." the review said.http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2010/feb/03/cyber-warfare-growing-threat
  • Three Main Concepts of Urbanization will evolve in the future:Megacities – with a minimum population of 5 Million (Eg. Greater London). Characteristics are: GDP of more than 100 billion US dollars, 5 million Mega Regions: Over a period of time, two or more mega cities merge to form one big region (eg. Johannesburg and Pretoria – will form a region – Jo Toria ) Mega Corridors: Transportation Corridors interconnect two or more mega cities or regions – to form mega corridors. Eg, Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou in China with Population 120 Million
  • Here are some examples of goods and services specifically catering to values, beliefs, interest and lifestyle of GEN Y.Preferred features of GEN Y products:Ability to Personalize:Technically Advanced and Helps Connectivity 24X7Eco – Friendly for the Environmental Conscious Gen YOn- demand and fast
  • Value is based on unique personalized experiences of consumers. Firms have to learn to focus on one consumer and her experience at a time, even if they serve 100 million customers. N=1. No firm is big enough in scope and size to satisfy the experience of one consumer at a time. All firms will acquire resources from a wide variety of other big and small firms – a global ecosystem. The focus is on access to resources, not ownership of resources.
  • US appoints first cyber warfare generalPentagon creates specialist online unit to counter cyber attack amid growing fears of militarisation of the internetThe Pentagon is channelling a growing volume of troops and resources into countering cyber warfare.The US military has appointed its first senior general to direct cyber warfare – despite fears that the move marks another stage in the militarisation of cyberspace.The newly promoted four-star general, Keith Alexander, takes charge of the Pentagon's ambitious and controversial new Cyber Command, designed to conduct virtual combat across the world's computer networks. He was appointed on Friday afternoon in a low-key ceremony at Fort Meade, in Maryland.The creation of America's most senior cyber warrior comes just days after the US air force disclosed that some 30,000 of its troops had been re-assigned from technical support "to the frontlines of cyber warfare".The creation of Cyber Command is in response to increasing anxiety over the vulnerability of the US's military and other networks to a cyber attack.Cyber-warfare 'is growing threat‘Cyber-warfare attacks, such as the targeting of activists' emails in China recently, are a growing threat, according to security experts. Cyber-warfare attacks on military infrastructure, government and communications systems, and financial markets pose a rapidly growing but little understood threat to international security and could become a decisive weapon of choice in future conflicts between states, the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies warned yesterday.IISS director-general John Chipman said: "Despite evidence of cyber attacks in recent political conflicts, there is little appreciation internationally of how to assess cyber-conflict. We are now, in relation to the problem of cyber-warfare, at the same stage of intellectual development as we were in the 1950s in relation to possible nuclear war."The warning accompanied yesterday's publication of the Military Balance 2010, the IISS's annual assessment of global military capabilities and defence economics. The study also highlighted a series of other security threats, including the war in Afghanistan, China's military diversification, the progress of Iran's suspect nuclear programme, and the impact of terrorist groups in Iraq and elsewhere.Future state-on-state conflict, as well as conflicts involving non-state actors such as al-Qaida, would increasingly be characterised by reliance on asymmetric warfare techniques, chiefly cyber-warfare, Chipman said. Hostile governments could hide behind rapidly advancing technology to launch attacks undetected. And unlike conventional and nuclear arms, there were no agreed international controls on the use of cyber weapons."Cyber-warfare [may be used] to disable a country's infrastructure, meddle with the integrity of another country's internal military data, try to confuse its financial transactions or to accomplish any number of other possibly crippling aims," he said. Yet governments and national defence establishments at present have only limited ability to tell when they were under attack, by whom, and how they might respond.Cyber-warfare typically involves the use of illegal exploitation methods on the internet, corruption or disruption of computer networks and software, hacking, computer forensics, and espionage. Reports of cyber-warfare attacks, government-sponsored or otherwise, are rising. Last month Google launched an investigation into cyber attacks allegedly originating in China that it said had targeted the email accounts of human rights activists.In December the South Korean government reported an attack in which it said North Korean hackers may have stolen secret defence plans outlining the South Korean and US strategy in the event of war on the Korean peninsula. Last July, espionage protection agents in Germany said the country faced "extremely sophisticated" Chinese and Russian internet spying operations targeting industrial secrets and critical infrastructure such as Germany's power grid.One of the most notorious cyber-warfare offensives to date took place in Estonia in 2007 when more than 1 million computers were used to jam government, business and media websites. The attacks, widely believed to have originated in Russia, coincided with a period of heightened bilateral political tension. They inflicted damage estimated in the tens of millions of euros of damage.China last week accused the Obama administration of waging "online warfare" against Iran by recruiting a "hacker brigade" and manipulating social media such as Twitter and YouTube to stir up anti-government agitation.The US Defence Department's Quadrennial Defence Review, published this week, also highlighted the rising threat posed by cyber-warfare on space-based surveillance and communications systems."On any given day, there are as many as 7 million DoD (Department of Defence) computers and telecommunications tools in use in 88 countries using thousands of war-fighting and support applications. The number of potential vulnerabilities, therefore, is staggering." the review said.http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2010/feb/03/cyber-warfare-growing-threat
  • Global mega trends and their impact on business, cultures and societies podcast 2

    1. 1. Global Mega Trends and Their Impact on Business, Cultures and Society<br />Presented by <br />Manoj Menon<br />Partner / Managing Director Asia Pacific<br />1<br />
    2. 2.
    3. 3. #1 Urbanization<br />
    4. 4. Three Main Trends in Urbanization: Development of Mega Cities, Mega Regions and Mega Corridors<br />MEGA CORRIDORS <br />The Corridors Connecting Two Major Cities or Mega Regions<br />EXAMPLE: Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Guangzhou in China (Population 120 Million)<br />MEGA CITY <br />City With A Minimum Population Of 5 Million <br />EXAMPLE: Greater London<br />MEGA REGIONS <br />Cities Combining With Suburbs To Form Regions. (Population over 10 Million)<br />EXAMPLE: Johannesburg and Pretoria (forming “Jo-Toria”)<br />
    5. 5. Smart Cities – “Green” Replaced by “SMART” Concepts<br />ICT<br />Energy<br />Plan<br />Smart Cities  Energy, City Planning and ICT to define the future of Mobility <br />Smart Diamond to define Smart city<br />‘S” <br />Governance<br />‘S’ Citizen<br />‘S’ Business<br />‘S’ City Planning<br />‘S’ Buildings<br />These 3 elements Will define the ‘Smart’ Mobility of the future<br />Source: Frost & Sullivan<br />‘S’ Mobility<br />‘S’ Energy<br />‘S’ ICT<br />‘S’ Energy Renewable energy, Smart Grid Infrastructure<br />‘S‘ City Planning EV Charging, Smart Grid, Bus Rapid Transit, Parking Infrastructure, Congestion Charging<br />‘S’ Information Communication & Technology  Telematics, Navigation, Smart Metering, Internet Technologies<br />City’s Infrastructure<br />Legend:<br />City’s User community<br />City’s Green Ecology<br />
    6. 6. #2 E-Mobility<br />
    7. 7. E-Mobility : Over 40 Million Electric 2 Wheelers and 4 Wheelers will be Sold Annually Around the Globe in 2020<br />Total 30 million – 2 Wheelers (2020) <br />Total 10 Million – 4 Wheelers<br />(2020) <br />Sanyo Enacle<br />XM 3000 Electric Moped<br />The GEM Peapod<br />The Smith Newton<br />
    8. 8. Electric Vehicle Market Eco-System Provides Opportunity to Enter New Fields<br />Utilities<br />Integrator<br />(e.g Better Place)<br />OEMs<br />Government<br />System/Battery Manufacturers<br />Charging Station Manufacturers<br />Cooperation to simultaneously promote EV use and electricity as a fuel<br />Integrators to create partnerships with Utilities, OEMs and Government<br />Key Responsibility: <br />Development of Charging Infrastructure<br />Key Responsibility:<br />Promotion of EV use<br />Supplies infrastructure to distribute their energy<br />Development of performing batteries<br />Infrastructure supplier<br />
    9. 9. #3 Social Trends<br />
    10. 10. World Population in 2020: Out of 2.56 Billion Gen Y Population - Around 61% from Asia Alone<br />World Population: Breakdown by Region (Global), 2020<br />2010<br />2020<br />7.55 Billion<br />Around 37% of Gen Y Population Will Live in India and China Alone<br />6.83 Billion<br />Note: Gen Y : Population between 15 – 34 Years<br />Source: US Census Bureau, 2010 and Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United Nations<br />
    11. 11. Generation Y: Goods and Services Catered to Values, Beliefs, Interest and Lifestyle<br />Techno Savvy and Connected 24 X 7<br />Civic and Environmentally Friendly<br />Demanding and Impatient – “Fast and the Furious”<br />Personalization and Individualization<br />Gaming Gizmos<br />Personalized Search and News<br />Instant Text Messaging<br />Eco- Transport<br />Smart Phones<br />Social Networking Profiles<br />Bag-For-Life (Paper Bags Instead of Plastic)<br />Instant Chat<br />Facebook-on-the Move<br />Personalized Products<br />Paperless Banking<br />Speed Oriented Gaming (Car Racing)<br />Microblogs<br />
    12. 12. #4 Technology<br />
    13. 13. New Satellites Launched By 2020: Over 900 Satellites to Be Launched Globally This Decade Creating Multiple Innovative Applications<br />By 2020, there will be approximately 927 Satellites (Communication – 405; Earth Observation – 151; Navigation – 85; Reconnaissance – 212 and R&D 75)<br />GNSS Enabled Applications:<br /><ul><li>Navigation (Civil, Military)
    14. 14. Broadband Internet and Wireless Network
    15. 15. GNSS based medical monitoring and drug delivery system
    16. 16. Automated guidance of machines, real-time structure monitoring, logistics and site management</li></ul>Galileo - intended to provide more precise measurements than GPS or GLONASS <br />China developing Beidou<br />Commercial market will be driven by broadcast; Mobile Satellite Services (MSS); voice and data applications, bundling IPTV<br />Used for Military Communication Applications, air-traffic control, automated aircraft landing, etc<br />Automobile Navigation and Intelligent Traffic Control System Applications<br />
    17. 17. Cloud Computing <br />A pool of compute, memory and i/o resources, applications or operating environments with seemingly infinite scalability, delivered as a service over a network, be it private or public<br />Characteristics<br />Service Types<br />Deployment Models<br />PUBLIC<br />On Demand, Self-Service<br />Enterprise<br />Public<br />Cloud<br />Pay As You Use, Metered Consumption<br />PRIVATE<br />Private<br />Cloud<br />Enterprise<br />Rapid Elasticity, Scale Up/Down<br />COMMUNITY<br />Enterprise<br />2<br />Enterprise<br />1<br />Community<br />Cloud<br />Shared Pools, Illusion of Infinite Resources<br />Enterprise<br />3<br />HYBRID<br />Broad Network Access using Standard Internet Protocols<br />Public<br />Cloud<br />Private<br />Cloud<br />Enterprise<br />
    18. 18. #5 Innovating to Zero!<br />
    19. 19. Possible Zero Emission Technologies in Power Generation - Innovating Toward Reducing CO2 Emissions in 2020<br />Third Generation Bio Fuels (Algae and Exotic Bio Fuels)<br />Travelling Wave Reactor (TWR)<br />Wide deployment of TWRs could enable projected global stockpiles of depleted uranium to sustain 80% of the world’s population at U.S. per capita energy usages for over a millennium<br />By 2022, algae biofuels will be the largest biofuel category overall, accounting for 40 billion of the estimated 109 billion gallons of biofuels produced.<br />“INNOVATING <br />TO <br />ZERO!”<br />Geothermal Energy<br />Wind Energy<br />Share of Geothermal Electricity in total electricity produced in 2020 is 1.5%<br />To Account for 1,900,000 MW of electricity production in 2020<br />Solar PV Cells<br />Ocean Energy<br />Capacity of Solar Power to Increase from 21,540 MW in 2020 to 630,000 MW in 2040<br />
    20. 20. #6 Infrastructure Development<br />
    21. 21. Integration of the Trans Siberian Rail into Eurasian Rail Network Will Result in Industrial and Business Hubs Along the Railroad <br />Development of Trans-Siberian railroad will have significant socio economic and business impact to Russia<br />Yekaterinburg<br />Verhnya<br />Pyshma<br />Sredneuralsk<br />Berezoviy<br />St. Petersburg<br />(Warsaw, Berlin)<br />Severka<br />● Helsinki<br />Koltsovo<br />Shyrokaya<br />Rechka<br />● Kaliningrad<br />●<br />Minsk<br />Moscow<br />●<br />Nizhny Novgorod<br />Kiev<br />Yekaterinburg<br />● Astrakhan<br />Novosibirsk<br />Krasnoyarsk<br />Khabarovsk<br />Irkutsk<br />(Bucharest, Aleksandrupolis)<br />ITC North South<br />Pan European N 9<br />Trans-Siberian Railway<br />Vladivostok<br />Baikal-Amur Mainline<br />Pan European N 2<br />
    22. 22. #7 Healthcare<br />
    23. 23. Health Economics Dictate a Shift in Spending – Away From Treating and Towards Predicting, Diagnosing and Monitoring<br />
    24. 24. #8 New Business Models<br />Pay as you go – Utilitarian, On Demand<br />Co-creation of value; <br />N=1, R=G<br />
    25. 25. #9 Connected Devices : 80 bn + by 2020 <br />Mobility on steroids <br />Internet of things <br />The Home Network <br /><ul><li>8-10 Devices per home
    26. 26. Universal Remote
    27. 27. 5-6 Devices per individual
    28. 28. Touch as the default input mechanism
    29. 29. 500 per sq km
    30. 30. Smart cities</li></ul>44 bn<br />6 bn<br />30 bn <br />
    31. 31. #10 Span of Influence increasing rapidly<br />Time to reach an audience of 50 million<br />Radio : 38 years<br />TV : 13 years<br />Internet : 4 years<br />iPod : 3 years<br />Facebook: 2 years<br />500 Million+ Facebook users<br />2 Billion+ photos on Facebook per month<br />1 Billion+ tweets on Twitter<br />100 Million+ videos on Youtube<br />200 Million+ blogs<br />13 Million+ Wikipedia articles<br />
    32. 32. Key Strategic Conclusions<br />Mega trends are connected and inter-wined which suggests “synergetic” opportunities between them<br />It is important to understand the eco-system of the mega-trend and the elements of the value chain which have most profitability<br />All these trends are global and have global ramifications thereby offering scalable opportunities<br />These forces are changing rapidly and bringing new competencies into play at half the life-cycle speed of the past decade<br />Organisations’ need “Mega Trend” champions and teams within their organisation structure to best exploit the opportunity<br />
    33. 33. Follow Frost & Sullivan on Facebook, LinkedIn, SlideShare, and Twitter<br />http://www.facebook.com/pages/Frost-Sullivan/249995031751?ref=ts<br />http://www.linkedin.com/companies/4506<br />http://www.slideshare.net/FrostandSullivan<br />http://twitter.com/frost_sullivan<br />
    34. 34. Contact Details<br />ManojMenon directly manages Frost & Sullivan’s business in Asia Pacific. Manoj started at Frost & Sullivan in December 1996 as one of the pioneers when the company was just beginning its trajectory into Asia. He has, since then, successfully grown the company’s presence and business in Asia Pacific by manifold. Manoj continues to drive Frost & Sullivan’s expansion in the region, yielding the highest year-on-year growth to the group’s global business. Throughout his tenure at Frost & Sullivan, Manoj has consulted on multiple strategic and syndicated projects for leading multinational companies, regulators and government bodies, providing growth workshops and client counsels, among others. He is today one of the region’s most sought-after speakers and thought leaders, wherein his expert opinions have been heard at seminars and industry conferences globally. Manoj is also frequently featured in leading media, namely CNN, Bloomberg, Channel News Asia, CNBC, BBC, Singapore Business Times and Straits Times, and Malaysian Business. He earned his Bachelor of Engineering at Mumbai University, and MBA at the ICFAI Business School in India. He is also a Chartered Financial Analyst.<br />ManojMenonPartner & Managing Director, <br />Asia PacificFrost & Sullivan <br />For any other enquiries, email us: apacfrost@frost.com<br />

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