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Global Mega Trends and Impact on Future of Urban Logistics


Published on

By 2025

there will be 35 mega cities globally demanding for unique city logistics solutions
each person will have a minimum of five connected devices
20% of retail will happen through online channels
over $800 billion will be spent on high speed rail projects globally

Published in: Business
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Global Mega Trends and Impact on Future of Urban Logistics

  1. 1. Delivering to the Cities of TomorrowGlobal Mega Trends and Impact on Future of Urban Logistics
  2. 2. Today’s Presenters Archana Amarnath Program Manager Visionary Innovation Research Frost & Sullivan Archana Vidyasekar Senior Research Analyst Visionary Innovation Research Frost & Sullivan 2
  3. 3. AgendaIntroduction and Definition of Urban LogisticsPresentation of Top Mega Trends of the FutureInfluencing Urban LogisticsUrban Logistics : New Trends and BusinessModelsMore About Visionary Innovation Group 3
  4. 4. Objectives of the Briefing• Defining and understanding the concept of urban logistics and the dynamics within the industry• Understand impact of Mega Trends in driving new business models, new technologies and urban freight transport practices• Gain insight into the use of information and communication in fleet management and robotics in warehousing• Spot new business models and intelligent optimised solutions being deployed for urban logistics 4
  5. 5. What is Urban Logistics?Urban Logistics offers unique tailor-made solutions for the transport of goods in cities by consolidating & rationalizing the existing logisticsplatforms & creating innovative solutions for the future through the use of information and communication technologies Key Segments Within Urban Logistics Transportati Warehousing Value-Added on & Activities Activities Distribution Activities In-Bound Planning / Transportatio Storage Marketing n Outbound Other Inventory Optimisation Transportatio Management Techniques n 5
  6. 6. Global MegaTrends and Urban Logistics 6
  7. 7. Mega Trends Driving Urban Logistics Industry Future Connectivity Infrastructure Urbanisation and Bricks & Clicks Development 1 2 3 4 ConvergenceThere Will be 35 Mega By 2025, each person By 2025, 20% of retail By 2025, globally overCities Globally By 2025 will have a minimum of will happen through $800 billion will beDemanding For Unique five connected devices online channels spent on high speed railCity Logistics Solutions projects. What does this mean for Urban Logistics? ‘On-the-fly’ deliveries Demand for urban An fuel and carbon500 million deliveries will have to made parcel deliveries will efficient alternative to per day to cities anywhere, anyhow, increase – shipments to road and air transport faster and quicker become smaller and and multi-modality. frequent 7
  8. 8. Mega Trend 1 : Urbanisation Urbanisation Will Compel Logistics Companies To Have More Spokes Near the Cities The Hubs: Central Distribution Centres 80% - 100% load factor Spokes: In-night services, Drop off-points for deliveries near remote city areas Early-morning deliveries Medium and Light CVs will deliver goods to warehouses within Reduce the number city of trips by almost half 100% on-time deliveries Heavy CommercialVehicles (double trailer Outer Ring Roadtrucks) will carry goods to 25 miles from Citybig warehouses at outskirts Centre 8
  9. 9. Distribution will be Shared and become more Consolidated Without Consolidation Centres With Consolidation Centres Consolidation centre 9
  10. 10. Mega Trend 2 : Connectivity and Convergence Logistics Technology to Become More Proactive than Reactive Real-time is Too Late… Urban logistics opportunities Social2025 Media Integratio n Cloud Logistics Intelligent2020 ‘On-the-Fly’ Transport Systems Deliveries Sensors and Individually Terrain optimized transport2015 solution Mapping Traffic Predicting Quality Control ‘On Software the Move’2010 Telemati cs Urban Lead Logistics Reactive Proactive 10
  11. 11. Mega Trend 3 : Bricks and Clicks Global Online Retail Sales To Reach $4.3 Trillion By 2025 Accounting for 19% of Total Retail “More the ‘Clicks’ More the Truck Mileage” $23 Online Sales Non-Online Sales Trillion % share of online in total retail, 2025 $11.8 Trillion 24% 18% 25% 10% 15% $18.7 81% Trillion $1.32 Trillion $11.2595% Trillion $1.30 Trillion $0.19 Trillion $0.17 Trillion $0.09 $4.3 19% Trillion Trillion $0.55 1 United 2 China 3 United 4 Japan 5 Germany5% States Kingdom Trillion 2011 2025 11
  12. 12. The Retail Model Will Evolve From a Single/Multiple ChannelModel to an Integrated Cross Channel Model Demanding For Multiple Delivery Options Bricks (pre-2000) +Advent of Clicks (post-2000Department Supermarkets Hypermarkets Online Mobile PaymentsMobile Apps Stores The Future - Bricks and Clicks (2015 and Beyond) Virtual Stores Interactive Stores Hyper Online Markets Source: Frost & Sullivan Analysis 12
  13. 13. Retail Logistics Will Innovate Its Last Mile Offering Multiple Delivery Options From Home Delivery to Self-Collect Ecommerce pressures on the supply chain Multipl Cold Invento e Supply Smaller Frequent ry Deliver Chain Shipmen Deliverie Visibilit y Service ts s y Options s Urban Logistics SolutionsSame-Day Night Time Click ‘n’ Locker Boxes Refrigerated Collect Locker Boxes 13
  14. 14. Mega Trend 4 : Higher Speed Logistics In Future, HS Rail will not only offer high speed personal mobility but will also transport cargo at a lesser fuel and carbon costProject Examples:•Eurocarex – High Speed Freight Train Between Lyonand London•Bangalore-Chennai High Speed Freight Train•China’s Mixed Passenger-Freight High Speed TrainsWhat are the Opportunities?•Higher Speed Logistics•Intermodal Logistics•Next-day delivery between continents•More fuel-efficient than Air-Road Mix•Night-time multimodal logistics (e.g. no night timeflight restrictions) 14
  15. 15. Urban Logistics Trends 15
  16. 16. How will demand for urban logistics affect the spending on logistics in urban environments ? 2011 2020 $2.55 $5.98Urban Logistics trillioSpending Trillion n 2.5x 50Transportation & 55% %DistributionWarehousing 32% 23%Value-Added 18% 22% 16
  17. 17. How will urban freight transportation change? Road to remain the dominant mode of urban freight transport. Logistics Related Transport Will Account For Over 35% Of City Traffic B2C trips will Come to rival the current dominant segment, B2B by 2020 underpinned by growth in ecommerce Average length of haul will decrease as warehouses and delivery spokes move further into cities 100% Loading Factor of Trucks – Full Optimisation Smaller and more fuel-efficient vehicles will be used within cities which are seamlessly integrated with multi-modal functionalities (roll on-roll off) 17
  18. 18. Future of Road Transport: Truck Concept 2020 The Concept of future delivery vans will revolve around technology, carbon footprint, fuel efficiency and Aerodynamics Vehicle to grid Lighter weight Connectivity Design Communication vehicles (Plastic• • Navigation Shell) Green routing, Low loading floor terrain mapping constructions• • On-Board Traffic Roll on-roll off analysing tools, systems• • Geo-fencing, and Smart sensors• Engine Driver & Fuel Support • Electric Tire Pressure Hybrids/Fuel cell Monitoring • Fleets System, • • CNG Driver Distraction • HCCI Warning, Adaptive • cruise control 18
  19. 19. Future Generation of WarehousesRobotic, Automated and Intelligent Warehouse Picking Robotic Unmanned Forklifts Picking Robots (Kiva) Augmented Reality ‘Autostore’ Picking 19
  20. 20. Future of Consolidation and Last Mile DeliveryMore Bundling and Innovative Last Mile Deliveries in Urban Areas Types of Urban Distribution Urban Consolidation Urban Transhipment Urban Intermodal Centres Areas Hubs Types of Urban Last-mile Deliveries Microdistribution Locker Boxes National Postal Service Mobile Collection 20
  21. 21. Urban Logistics Policies and Measures 21
  22. 22. How are Cities managing Urban Logistics? Through vehicle access restriction, economic instruments, and special infrastructure, city governments and municipalities are planning for an urban future Access Economic Special Restriction Instrument Infrastruct s ureLow Emission Zones Congestion Charging Freight Lanes Time Windows Incentives & Subsidies Urban Consolidation Centre Vehicle Weight Loading / Restrictions Unloading Areas 22
  23. 23. Examples of Cities experimenting with Urban Freight Measures City of Paris Parking Bays Switzerland Subsidy for Intermodal Transport Barcelona Night Time Window Italy’s Urban Consolidation Centres 23
  24. 24. Urban Business Models From LSPs 24
  25. 25. Emerging and Future Urban Logistics Business Models 2020 Autonomous Fleet (Self- Monitoring Vehicles) Cloud Lifestyle Logistics Carriers 2015Future Hybrid / Logistics Electric Pick- Up Planning and Fleet / Shared Vans / Self- Forecasting 2012 Fleet Collection Points Multimodal Telematics / Deliveries Locker Boxes Real Tim e Solution 2010Past Off-Peak Consolidation Proprietary 2008 Deliveries Centres EDI Transportation Distribution Value-added services 25
  26. 26. Examples of Logistics Service Providers Experimenting with Urban Logistics ModelsDHL Consolidation Centre TNT Express Tricycles UPS-Kiala Fedex Smart TNT Express Bento Box Geodis Distropolis Ecommerce Solutions 26
  27. 27. Top Urban LogisticsIndustries 27
  28. 28. Top Industries Using Urban Logistics Services in the Future Food & Retail Pharmaceutic Beverages al Industry Generic Chilled and Smaller Stores Trend Medicines Frozen Food Smaller shelf No more Urban size – need for homogenous Need for Cold Logistics constant single supply Supply Chain Implication Services replenishment chain model Urban Retail Refrigerated Logistics Consolidation Pack-to-order Locker Boxes Services Centres 28
  29. 29. So what will the future of Urban Logistics look like in 20251. A minimum of 500 million deliveries per day will be made within cities by 2025.2. People will volunteer to deliver goods on their way home becoming lifestyle couriers3. Access to cities in the future will be guided by Smart Cards and e- Tags4. Information Driven Logistics will become the norm with providers planning delivery trips even before orders are placed through predictive analysis and social media integration5. Logistics companies will innovate to overcome the future urban challenge introducing hybrid fleets, consolidated deliveries and locker boxes among others innovations for cities6. City planners will reinforce and introduce new policy measures to control vehicle access, provide economic incentive for sustainable 29
  30. 30. Visionary Innovation ResearchTop Mega Trends That We 2012 TopicsTrack Global Mega Trends and its Future Implications to Urban Logistics • Urbanizati on – City Bricks Infrastructu to 2020 as a and Clicks re Urbanisation and Mega Cities Customer Developmen and Impact on Industries and • t Business Innovatin Health, New Business Models of the Smart is g to Zero Wellness Future • the New Green and Well Bricks and Clicks: Macro to Being Micro Implications of • Connectivity and Convergence In Social New Future of Upcoming Topics - 2013 Retail Industry Trends Business Mobility Models: Macro to Micro Implications of Value for Convergence on Industries, • Many Products and Technologies 3D printing and its Macro to Connectivit Beyond Micro Impact on Manufacturing • y and BRIC: The and Supply Chain Management Convergen Next Macro to Micro Implications of Game ce Changers Robotics and Artificial • Intelligence on Industries 30
  31. 31. Frost & Sullivan’s Visionary Innovation SubscriptionProvides Global Mega Trends Analysis, Regional Implications and a Deep Dive into Specific Topics by Industry Verticals A B C Global Mega Trends Regional Mega Trends Focus on Specific Mega Analysis and Implications Trends and Their Impact by Industry • Featuring global study updates • Analysis of global Mega Trends in annually and analysis of key key geographies such as •Focus on specific Topics e.g. the topics like Urbanisation, Smart 1. Africa Impact of Connectivity and is the New Green, Health, 2. India Convergence on Healthcare Wellness and Well Being 3. China Devices, Urban Logistics . 4. Latin America • There will be over 30 such topics • Identification of specific regional completed in next 12 months trends (e.g., beneficiation in Africa) 360 Degree Perspective of Global Mega Trends and Analysis of their Impact on Industries 31
  32. 32. From Macro to Micro: Taking Mega Trends from Information to Strategy Implementation To Macro Micro Mega Trend Analysis of OpportunitiesSelected trends that impact your business and markets and Unmet Needs Sub Trend Impact on Future A sub-layer of trends that has a Product/ Technology wide ranging impact Impact to Your Industry Visualising the roadmap of these critical forces through scenario- building and macro economic forecasts 32
  33. 33. Learn More About “New Mega Trends” Published Book: New Mega Trends Implications for our Future Lives By Sarwant Singh Publisher: Palgrave Macmillan pid=577423 Join Our Mega Trend Group On Mega Trends: Strategic Planning and Innovation Based on Frost & Sullivan Research 33
  34. 34. Contact InformationArchana Devi Vidyasekar Archana Devi VidyasekarSenior Research Analyst, Visionary Innovation Senior Research Analyst, Visionary InnovationResearch Group Research Group(+91) 4466814216 (+91) 34