Frost & Sullivan Unmanned Systems Analyst Briefing

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Frost & Sullivan’s analyst briefing on the unmanned systems.

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Frost & Sullivan Unmanned Systems Analyst Briefing

  1. 1. Unmanned Systems Beyond Iraq: What is the Next Step for this Booming Industry? Lindsay Voss, Industry Analyst Aerospace and Defense September 24, 2008
  2. 2. Focus Points • Market Overview • Market Attractiveness • Technology Roadmap • Market Drivers, Restraints & Trends • Spending Overview • Competitive Overview • Conclusions Source: U.S. Air Force Source: U.S. Navy Source: U.S. Navy Source: U.S. Air Force Navy Source: U.S.
  3. 3. Market Overview Coverage includes Unmanned Air, Ground, and Maritime Systems Violence in Iraq, Afghanistan and around the world has triggered staggering triggered growth in the unmanned systems market Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) represent the largest market segment and the segment most mature technology The Department of Defense (DoD) purchases 95 percent of unmanned systems sold in the U.S. The unmanned ground vehicle (UGV) market segment is growing in response to response the threat if improvised explosive devices (IEDs) The DoD is the largest UGV customer, however law enforcement is an expanding market space Unmanned Underwater and Surface vehicles comprise the maritime market market segment Unmanned maritime systems (UMS) make up the smallest markets and are the least mature technologies The UMS market segment has the least number of entrenched competitors and is competitors expected to see the largest amount of growth
  4. 4. Technology Roadmap Combat Missions Medical Evacuation Combined Arms Strike Capability Strike Capability Airlift Engagement Commercial Use 2030 Ship-deployed Comms Aerial Refueling Weaponization Armed ASW Submarine Tracking Battle Management Information Operations Penetrating Strike Increased Use Use Civil Civil 2025 SIGINT Collection SEAD Role CBRN Detection Communications Relay Mine Counter Measure ISR Roles Oceanography Maritime Patrol Surface Warfare Perimeter Security Communications Civil Use ISR Mission CBRN Detection Limited Commercial Use 2015 ISR Missions Reconnaissance Mine Clearance Maritime Surveillance DoD Tactical Strike Inspection Mine Neutralization Maritime Interdiction Meteorological Research Mine Neutralization EOD Anti-Submarine Warfare Border Surveillance Autonomous Mapping 2007 IED Disruption Limited Civil Use Mine Counter measures Unmanned Unmanned Aerial Unmanned Unmanned Underwater Systems Ground Vehicles Surface Vehicles Vehicles
  5. 5. Market Attractiveness Table This table directly correlates with the market attractiveness grid on slide 5. Market attractiveness is based on concentration of market competition, market supplier capacity, presence of dominant participants, market revenue potential, and rate of market growth between 2008 and 2016. On the market attractiveness grid on the following slide the large oval represents the market in 2007 while the small oval is representative of the market in 2016. Market Market Supplier Revenue Rate of Dominant Concentration Capacity Potential Market Participants Growth UAS DoD Market Highly High High Medium Yes concentrated UAS Civil Fragmented Low Low Low No UAS Commercial Fragmented Low Low Low No UGV Market Mildly High Medium Medium Yes Concentrated UUV Market Mildly High Low High Yes concentrated USV Market Fragmented High Low High No
  6. 6. Most Attractive Market Attractiveness Grid Attractive Least Attractive Most Attractive Markets High DoD UAS DoD UAS UGV Market UGV Market Subsystems Subsystems Attractiveness Revenue Represents the Commercial UAS market if regulations are lifted Represents the Commercial UAS market if regulations don’t change UUV Market UUV Market USV Market USV Market Represents the Civil UAS Market if regulations are lifted Represents the Civil UAS Market if Civil UAS UAV UAV Civil UAS regulations are unchanged Commercial Commercial Low Significant Market Open Barriers Openness Market
  7. 7. Market Drivers and Restraints Strong Drivers Med Demand for timely, System interoperability Maturing technologies IED threats are driving persistent ISR is creating drive market growth system procurement capabilities drives opportunities Weak UAS market growth Entrenched Defense budget Unmanned systems Slowness in decision competition for UAS constraints result in have liability issues making by the U.S. Strong and UGVs program cutbacks resulting in few military and other Restraints commercial government agencies opportunities restrains market growth Med Weak
  8. 8. Market Trends Length of arrows indicate impact of the challenge Weak Medium Strong UAS and UGV companies vying for position in the unmanned maritime systems market segment Market Trends Unmanned systems teaming with other unmanned systems and manned platforms New R&D programs for the DoD Increased use of unmanned systems by federal non-DoD entities for both research and security applications
  9. 9. Spending Overview Other Federal UAS Spending DoD Services UAS Spending Forecasts 4,000.0 Spending ($ Million) 180.0 3,000.0 160.0 2,000.0 140.0 1,000.0 120.0 0.0 Spending ($ Million) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 U.S. Navy 289.8 507.3 970.1 1,064.3 916.3 763.5 570.2 497.2 471.5 502.9 100.0 U.S. Army 591.7 425.8 502.1 828.6 696.9 632.3 579.9 628.7 640.1 622.7 80.0 U.S. Air Force 1,318.21,663.11,844.21,608.91,500.01,529.01,492.21,325.61,339.71,345.9 60.0 UAS Procurement, RDT&E, O&M 40.0 4,000.0 Spending ($ Million) 20.0 3,500.0 3,000.0 0.0 2,500.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2,000.0 USCG 0.0 1.0 5.3 3.3 2.1 6.9 11.5 9.0 15.7 20.8 1,500.0 DTRA 1.1 3.0 0.8 2.5 5.8 4.3 2.1 0.9 1.5 2.7 1,000.0 500.0 Other 1.5 2.3 3.7 4.8 5.5 10.1 17.8 20.2 22.5 25.7 0.0 NASA 3.2 4.1 6.7 7.7 5.3 6.9 10.1 18.0 25.6 19.1 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 USSOCOM 28.2 19.5 31.4 37.8 24.6 29.0 36.9 45.6 37.8 39.0 O&M 136.1 170.6 167.0 195.4 195.3 232.1 244.2 251.5 270.2 297.7 DARPA 15.7 27.8 33.2 18.3 27.9 33.9 25.5 39.0 26.7 20.6 Procurement 703.0 709.8 1,227.0 1,309.5 1,039.1 827.0 647.1 538.3 468.5 468.9 CBP 5.6 27.2 10.1 22.2 35.6 18.7 15.5 28.6 39.0 41.6 RDT&E 1,360.6 1,715.8 1,922.4 1,996.9 1,878.8 1,865.71,751.0 1,661.7 1,712.6 1,704.9
  10. 10. Spending Overview DoD UGV Spending Forecasts DoD UUV Spending Forecasts 350.0 100.0 300.0 Spending ($ Million) Spending ($ Million) 80.0 250.0 200.0 60.0 150.0 100.0 40.0 50.0 20.0 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0.0 DoD RDT&E 46.7 70.5 77.3 60.5 73.3 61.9 62.9 59.8 62.3 66.3 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 DoD Procurement 278.7 217.7 175.5 191.2 199.3 211.3 222.0 223.9 209.1 224.8 Spending 16.9 19.2 20.8 29.0 24.5 31.8 46.2 53.0 68.4 78.3 DoD and Civil UGV Spending Forecasts DoD USV Spending Forecasts 40.0 500.0 35.0 Spending ($ Million) Spending ($ Million) 400.0 30.0 25.0 300.0 20.0 200.0 15.0 100.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 DoD Spending 325.4 288.2 252.8 251.7 272.6 273.2 284.9 283.7 271.4 291.1 Civil Spending 55.4 57.9 65.8 60.8 69.0 73.6 80.8 89.6 99.7 105.7 Spending 10.3 11.9 12.1 14.2 15.9 21.6 24.9 27.2 33.4 34.2
  11. 11. End-User Overview The following pie-charts display end-user market share for 2007 UGV End-Users the UAS, UGV, and UMV market segments. Additional users of unmanned systems within the United States include the Department of Justice (DOJ), Central Intelligence Agency U.S. Navy: 58.4% (CIA), Customs and Border Protection (CBP), Defense U.S. Army: 36.7% Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA), Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA), Special Operations U.S. Air Force: 4.5% Command, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), National Other: 0.4% Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Research Entities, and Law Enforcement Agencies 2007 UMS End-Users 2007 UAS End-Users U.S. Navy: 84.3% U.S. Air Force: 57.5% NOAA: 4.6% U.S. Army: 36.1% Research: 6.0% U.S. Navy: 5.6% Commercial: 3.0% Other: 0.8% Other: 2.1%
  12. 12. Company Market Share Overview 2007 UAS Company Market Share 2007 UGV Company Market Share Foster-Miller: 60.4% Northrop Grumman: 42.8% iRobot Corporation: 23.4% General Atomics: 20.3% DOK-ing: 1.2% AAI Corporation: 19.8% General Dynamics Robotic Aerovironment, Inc.: 8.2% Systems: 3.3% Hydrema: 1.1% Aurora Flight Sciences: 1.4% Northrop Grumman: 4.2% Boeing/Insitu: 2.7% Other: 4.8% BAE Systems: 1.7% Lockheed Martin: 2.5% Other: 2.2% 2007 USV Company Market Share 2007 UUV Company Market Share 2007 EDO Corporation (ITT): 43.3% General Dynamics Robotic Bluefin Robotics: 37.0% Systems: 34.3% Oregon Iron Works: 9.0% Hydroid LLC.: 30.7% Foster-Miller Inc.: 10.6% Other: 4.6% Boeing: 6.2% Maritime Applied Physics Corp.: 4.2% ARINC Engineering: Accurate Automation: 2.0% 4.4% Lockheed Martin: 2.1% Robotic Marine Systems, LLC.: Other: 9.0% 1.7% Sea Robotics Inc.: 0.9%
  13. 13. Conclusions The U.S. Unmanned Systems market continues to increase drastically with new technologies and drastically new applications Competition is becoming tighter with less opportunity for new participants across all segments participants Subsystems are the hot new market: Sensors, Command and Control, Communications, Guidance Civil and Commercial markets are an opportunity in the long-term long- The U.S. Unmanned Systems market as a whole is positioned to see strong future growth
  14. 14. Your Feedback is Important to Us What would you like to see from Frost & Sullivan? Growth Forecasts? Competitive Structure? Emerging Trends? Strategic Recommendations? Other? Please inform us by taking our survey.
  15. 15. For Additional Information • To leave a comment, ask the analyst a question, or receive the free audio segment that accompanies this presentation, please contact Stephanie Ochoa, Social Media Manager at (210) 247- 2421, via email, analystbriefings@frost.com, or on Twitter at http://twitter.com/stephanieochoa.

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