Frost & Sullivan Solar & Wind Markets - Subsidy Driven Demand

1,356 views

Published on

Published in: Technology, Business
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
1,356
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
3
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
28
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Frost & Sullivan Solar & Wind Markets - Subsidy Driven Demand

  1. 1. SOLAR AND WIND MARKETS: SUBSIDY DRIVENDEMANDChris de LavigneGlobal Vice President, ConsultingMay, 2011 “We Accelerate Growth”
  2. 2. Frost & Sullivan is a strategic consulting company that helps clients growtheir businesses. We have a total of 2000 staff in 40 countries Our Lead Offer: Growth Partnership Services 1 Research Services TEAM 2 Growth Consulting 3 Training Market Engineering Research Growth Consulting Corporate Training & Analyst Briefings Growth Workshop Development Market Insights Whitepapers Industry Tracker Top of Mind Surveys Mover & Shaker Interviews Growth Opportunity Newsletters Client Councils Best Practices Analyst Inquiry Hours Awards Customer Research Economic Impact Articles Country Industry Forecasts Financial Benchmarking & Analysis Technical Insights Research Technical Insights Alerts CLIENT PORTAL & E- BROADCASTS 2 “We Accelerate Growth”
  3. 3. Focus points – Why Solar and Wind? – Solar and Wind Power Market Drivers and Restraints – Solar Market Trends and Forecasts – Wind Market Trends and Forecasts – Market Outlook to 2020 3 “We Accelerate Growth”
  4. 4. Why solar and wind? Global solar and wind power markets - tremendous growth since 2006 Energy security and independence have helped drive Govt. incentives Renewable energy showed robust growth through GFC and in 2010 Grid-connected solar photovoltaic (PV) and wind power fastest growing power generation technology Solar PV and wind industries also had high CapEx in new manufacturing plants/equipment in 2010 4 “We Accelerate Growth”
  5. 5. Why solar and wind? Installed capacity below traditional techs but growth significantly higher Compound Annual Growth Rate of Revenues for the Global Market, by Technology (2010 - 2016) 60 50 40 CAGR % 30 20 10 0 Wind Solar PV Solar CSP Gas Turbines Steam Turbines Technology 5 “We Accelerate Growth”
  6. 6. Key solar and wind demand drivers Technological Improvements and Advances in Efficiencies Increasing Oil Imports and Volatility of Oil Prices Government Incentives 6 “We Accelerate Growth”
  7. 7. Key solar and wind demand restraints Large Infrastructure Investment Changes in policies & incentives Global Economic Downturn 7 “We Accelerate Growth”
  8. 8. Overview of solar power market 8 “We Accelerate Growth”
  9. 9. Massive increase in installed capacity from 2009-2010 Total Solar Power Market: Cumulative Total Installed Capacity (World), 2009 & 2010 40,000 35,000 Growth 30,000 RateGlobal solar market cumulative in 72%2009 = ~21,000 MW. 25,000 20,000Global solar market cumulative in2010 = ~36,500 MW. 15,000 10,000Growth Rate 2009 – 2010: ~72% 5,000 0 2009 2010 Cumulative Installed Capacity Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan 9 “We Accelerate Growth”
  10. 10. World market hotspots – installed and 2010 installments 7,308 MW in 2010 15,900 MW 600 MW Installed in 2010 600 MW 872 MW 890 MW in 2010 Installed Installed 3,504 MW 1,860 MW Installed 2,580 MW in 2010 Installed 2,965 MW 1,040 MW 950 MW Installed in 2010 in 2010 360 MW Installed 260 MW in 2010 410 MW Installed to Installed date Installed in 224 MW 2010 in 2010 10 “We Accelerate Growth”
  11. 11. Demand driver policies – select key countries France Germany Rooftop/Ground-mounted systems: EUR 0.31- 20 years guaranteed FiT; No limits. 0.38/kWh; 20 years FiT (2010) – EUR 0.2875-.3957/kwh Simplified BIPV: EUR 0.37/kWh; 20 years Policy being reviewed. Reduction in BIPV:EUR 0.58/kWh; 20 years FiT on 1st July 2011 could amount to Simplified BIPV category effective in June between 3 and 15% 2010. US China California Solar Initiative Golden Sun Program Investment Tax Credit Provincial government Renewable Portfolio initiatives Standards Italy BIPV: EUR 0.43-0.48/kWh Spain BAPV: EUR 0.39-0.41/kWh Ground-mounted: EUR 0.32/kWh; Rooftop: Non Integrated: EUR 0.35-0.39/kWh 20 EUR 0.32-0.34/kWh (25 yrs) years Installation Cap: 502 MW in 2010; 488 Policy revised. By Dec 2011, tariffs will MW in 2011 be 22-31% lower than current rates. In Reduction in FiT - By 45% for Ground- 2012, further cut of 23-44% broken up mounted, 25% for large roof-mounted and in 1H and 2H. 5% for small residential rooftop 11 “We Accelerate Growth”
  12. 12. Market expected to continue to grow rapidly to 2016 Total Solar Power Market: CSP Cumulative Installed Capacity Forecasts (World), 2009 & 2016 Concentrating solar power (CSP)cumulative installed capacity in the CAGRworld in 2009 = 817MW. 49.6%Most is installed in North America.CAGR 2009 – 2016: 49.6% Total Solar Power Market: PV Cumulative Total Installed Capacity Forecasts (World), 2009 & 2016 Global photovoltaic (PV) market cumulative installed capacity in 2009 CAGR = 20,090MW. 33.5% Most is installed in Europe (Germany). CAGR 2009 – 2016: 33.5% Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan 12 “We Accelerate Growth”
  13. 13. Installed capacity by regionTotal Solar Power Market: PV Cumulative Total Installed Total Solar Power Market: CSP Cumulative Installed Capacity by Region (World), 2009 Capacity by Region (World), 2009 Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan • CSP Market: Spain and the U.S. accounted for 38% and 62% • PV Market: dominated by Germany, with 36% of the total installed capacity (7,308MW) in 2009. 13 “We Accelerate Growth”
  14. 14. West dominant in CSP production, China in PVCSP Solar Power Market: Market Share of Major PV Solar Power Market: Market Share of MajorParticipants Based on Installations (World), 2009 Participants Based on Revenues (World), 2009 14 “We Accelerate Growth”
  15. 15. Whilst incentives continue, cost reduction will be key 5.0 4.5 4.0 3.5 ASP ($/W) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Module ASP ($/W) Wafer ($/W) Cells ($/W) PV module prices decreased 30-40 % in 2009, 2010 quite stable More silicon manufacturing coming on line, expected lower prices for long-term. Oversupply in 2012? Growing solar efficiency reduces time of ROI 15 “We Accelerate Growth”
  16. 16. Overview of wind power market 16 “We Accelerate Growth”
  17. 17. Wind power market – installed capacity forecast Wind Power Market: Total Installed Capacity Forecasts (World), 2009-2016• CAGR 2005-2009: 40% CAGR 22.1%• Installed Capacity in 2009: 159,221 MW• Europe: 48% (76 GW) of the total installed capacity in 2009. Wind Power Market: Total Installed Capacity by Region (World), 2009• Rest-of-world: Installed cap CAGR 36% from 2009 to 2016.• Total Market CAGR 2009 – 2010: 22% Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan 17 “We Accelerate Growth”
  18. 18. Market sharesWind Power Market: Market Share of Major Participants Based on Installations (World), 2008 • GE Energy • Vestas • Vestas • Gamesa • Enercon • Siemens North Europe America • Suzlon • Wobben Enercon • Vestas • Vestas • Sinovel • Gamesa APAC ROW 18 “We Accelerate Growth”
  19. 19. Long Term Renewable Energy Trends 19 “We Accelerate Growth”
  20. 20. A bright but turbulent future 20 “We Accelerate Growth”
  21. 21. For additional Information:Donna Jeremiah Carrie LowCorporate Communications Corporate CommunicationsDirector Executive(603) 6204 5832 (603) 6204 5910djeremiah@frost.com carrie.low@frost.comJessie LohCorporate CommunicationsManager(65) 6890 0942jessie.loh@frost.com 21 “We Accelerate Growth”

×