Clean and Green Technologies – What is the Fuss All About?
Clean and Green Technologies – What is the Fuss All About? Kee Wai Fun Senior Industry Analyst Technical Insights October 13 th , 2010
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The ‘Nine’ Technology Clusters in our Radar The ‘Nine’ Clusters span across the ‘Eight’ different Industry Verticals with a Global Focus Sensors & Automation Materials & Coatings Clean & Green Tech LifeSciences & Biotech Medical Devices & Imaging Tech Advanced Manufacturing Information & Communication Tech Microelectronics Environmental & Building Tech Coverage Verticals Automation & Electronics Automotive & Transportation Aerospace & Defense Information & Communication Technology Healthcare Chemicals, Materials & Foods Environmental and Building Technology Energy and Power Supply I IV VII II V VIII III VI IX
Components of the Climate System Source: Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
Source: Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) The Greenhouse Effect
Fourth Assessment Report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Climate Change 2007 , the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is the fourth in a series of reports intended to assess scientific, technical and socio-economic information concerning climate change, its potential effects, and options for adaptation and mitigation. The report is the largest and most detailed summary of the climate change situation ever undertaken, involving thousands of authors from dozens of countries, and states in its summary: "Warming of the climate system is unequivocal." "Most of the observed increase in global average temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations.“ The Working Group I Summary for Policymakers (SPM) was published on 2 February 2007 and revised on 5 February 2007. The full WGI report was published in March, and last updated on 5 September 2007. A 34-page Frequently Asked Questions document has been made available. The report was produced by 620 authors and editors from 40 countries , and reviewed by more than 620 experts and governments. Before being accepted, the summary was reviewed line-by-line by representatives from 113 governments during the 10th Session of Working Group, which took place in Paris, France, between 29 January and 1 February 2007.
Fourth Assessment Report of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Source: Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)
Atmospheric Concentrations of Greenhouse Gases Source: Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)
Increased Global Mean Temperature Source: Climate Change 2007, the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4)
Key Mitigation Technologies – Green Technologies Sector Key mitigation technologies and practices currently commercially available Key mitigation technologies and practices projected to be commercialized before 2030 Energy Supply Improved supply and distribution efficiency; fuel switching from coal to gas; nuclear power; renewable heat and power (hydropower, solar, wind, geothermal and bioenergy); combined heat and power; early applications of CCS (e.g. storage of removed CO 2 from natural gas) Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) for gas, biomass and coal-fired electricity generating facilities; advanced nuclear power; advanced renewable energy, including tidal and waves energy, concentrating solar, and solar PV. Transport More fuel efficient vehicles; hybrid vehicles; cleaner diesel vehicles; biofuels; modal shifts from road transport to rail and public transport systems; non-motorised transport (cycling, walking); land-use and transport planning Second generation biofuels; higher efficiency aircraft; advanced electric and hybrid vehicles with more powerful and reliable batteries Buildings Efficient lighting and daylighting; more efficient electrical appliances and heating and cooling devices; improved cook stoves, improved insulation; passive and active solar design for heating and cooling; alternative refrigeration fluids, recovery and recycle of fluorinated gases Integrated design of commercial buildings including technologies, such as intelligent meters that provide feedback and control; solar PV integrated in buildings Industry More efficient end-use electrical equipment; heat and power recovery; material recycling and substitution; control of non-CO 2 gas emissions; and a wide array of process-specific technologies Advanced energy efficiency; CCS for cement, ammonia, and iron manufacture; inert electrodes for aluminium manufacture Agriculture Improved crop and grazing land management to increase soil carbon storage; restoration of cultivated peaty soils and degraded lands; improved rice cultivation techniques and livestock and manure management to reduce CH 4 emissions; improved nitrogen fertilizer application techniques to reduce N 2 O emissions; dedicated energy crops to replace fossil fuel use; improved energy efficiency Improvements of crop yields Forestry Forestation; reforestation; forest management; reduced deforestation; harvested wood product management; use of forestry products for bio-energy to replace fossil fuel use Tree species improvement to increase biomass productivity and carbon biosequestration. Improved remote sensing technologies for analysis of vegetation/ soil carbon sequestration potential and mapping land use change Waste Landfill methane recovery; waste incineration with energy recovery; composting of organic waste; controlled waste water treatment; recycling and waste minimization Biocovers and biofilters to optimize CH 4 oxidation
Focus Points Green Buildings Carbon Capture and Storage Solar Photovoltaics Clean and Green Tech - Industry Perception
Industry Perception Clean & Green Technologies Energy Generation/ Storage Green Buildings Environmental remediation Green Agriculture Clean production/ Monitoring Green Innovation—Product- or Technology-enabled engineering, design and manufacturing approaches, which drive changes in products, business processes and systems to achieve energy efficiency and preserve the environment.
Energy Generation … Wind Energy Biofuels Concentrated Solar Power; Silicon PV panels; Nanobased solar energy; Microinverters; CIGS thin film panels; Solar lighting; Solar thermal storage; Organic dye-sensitized solar cells Scale to large size wind turbines; Advanced materials and manufacturing; Deep sea wind turbine technologies; Small Turbines; Low speed direct drive generators Alternative Feedstock; Second general biofuel production; Biodiesel; Algal biofuel technologies; Bio/Chemical catalysts Geothermal heat pumps, Well Construction Fluids; Advanced Materials; Direct use of Geothermal energy Solar Power Geothermal Current Technologies
Solar Power versus Primary Energy Consumption <ul><li>Solar power has the biggest potential among all renewable energy sources. </li></ul><ul><li>The energetical potential of global solar irradiation is about 1800 times bigger than the demand for primary energy. </li></ul><ul><li>In the future, strong growth of renewable energies is expected, specifically in solar power. </li></ul><ul><li>Solar power has the potential to meet more than 50% of global primary energy consumption. </li></ul>Actual global primary energy consumption Solar Energy Wind Energy Biomass Geothermal Energy Hydro Power Ocean Power
Solar Power – Technology Segmentation Trough Technology Dish Stirling Engine technology Linear Fresnel Reflector Power Tower Technology 1 st Generation Monocrystalline Silicon Polycrystalline Silicon Ribbon Silicon 2 nd Generation Amorphous Silicon Micromorph Silicon Cadmium Telluride Copper Indium Gallium Diselenide 3 rd Generation Organic Dye-sensitized PV Concentrated Solar Power <ul><li>North America </li></ul><ul><li>Installed Capcity: 509 MW </li></ul><ul><li>Investment CAGR: 38.1% </li></ul><ul><li>Europe </li></ul><ul><li>Installed Capacity: 305 MW </li></ul><ul><li>Investment CAGR: 29.9% </li></ul><ul><li>Asia Pacific </li></ul><ul><li>Installed Capacity: 2 MW </li></ul><ul><li>Investment CAGR: 104.4% </li></ul><ul><li>Rest of the World </li></ul><ul><li>Installed Capacity: 0 MW </li></ul>Photovoltaics <ul><li>North America </li></ul><ul><li>Installed Capacity: 1,626 MW </li></ul><ul><li>Revenues: 35% </li></ul><ul><li>Europe </li></ul><ul><li>Installed Capacity: 12,926 MW </li></ul><ul><li>Revenues: 23.9% </li></ul><ul><li>Asia Pacific </li></ul><ul><li>Installed Capacity: 3,317 MW </li></ul><ul><li>Revenues: 38.8% </li></ul><ul><li>Rest of the World </li></ul><ul><li>Installed Capacity: 2,221 MW </li></ul><ul><li>Revenues: 17.5% </li></ul>
Photovoltaics – Technology Analysis Advantages Disadvantages Average Efficiency (%) 1 st Generation <ul><li>Higher energy conversion efficiency per square meter </li></ul><ul><li>Better suitable for space constraints </li></ul><ul><li>Higher reliability and proven Performance </li></ul><ul><li>More reliant on feedstock availability and its purity </li></ul><ul><li>Higher production cost and complex manufacturing process </li></ul><ul><li>Requires more raw material </li></ul>13-18 2 nd Generation <ul><li>Lower material costs </li></ul><ul><li>Lower production cost and automated process </li></ul><ul><li>Better suitable for curved, glass, and plastic surfaces </li></ul><ul><li>Aesthetically pleasing </li></ul><ul><li>Better suited for environments with less optimal light conditions </li></ul><ul><li>Lower efficiencies when compared to crystalline cells </li></ul><ul><li>Higher installation costs </li></ul><ul><li>Requires large array areas to deliver the same power in comparison to crystalline technologies </li></ul><ul><li>Requires expensive tracking mechanisms </li></ul><ul><li>Requires direct sunlight and operates in sunny, dry climate </li></ul>5 - 20 3 rd Generation <ul><li>Less-expensive manufacturing process </li></ul><ul><li>Are lightweight and flexible </li></ul><ul><li>Lower power conversion efficiencies than silicon-based devices </li></ul><ul><li>Undergo degradation over time </li></ul>2 - 5
Photovoltaics – Installed Capacity by Technologies Shortage of poly silicon has limited the growth of crystalline technologies in the last few years. However, it has offered a great opportunity for the PV thin film industry to grow and establish thin film as a major PV technology solution. Thin film technologies are expected to develop in the next ten years. PV Solar Power Market: Percent of Installed Capacity by Technologies - 2009
Photovoltaics – Innovation Landscape Increased Production Reduction of Production costs <ul><li>First Solar Inc. </li></ul><ul><li>Sun tech Power </li></ul><ul><li>Ja Solar Holdings Co., Ltd. </li></ul><ul><li>Q-cells SE </li></ul><ul><li>Sharp Electronics Corp. </li></ul><ul><li>Sun power Corp. </li></ul>Major Players Advances in R&D Changing Industrial Processes R&D for Thin film Technologies– Market share is likely to increase to about 35 % in 2020 Cost of Wafer production–Reduction of average silicon consumption for crystalline silicon Improvements in average efficiency– Mono/Multi-crystalline and Ribbon Silicon Material developments–Optimizing cell concepts, Polymer solar cells, Organic dye-sensitized cells Lifetime improvement of solar modules Nanotechnology in PV–Nano layers, Nano structured surfaces, Quantum dots, Nanoparticles, Nanoporous coatings Application research–Building Integrated Photovoltaics, Integration into National grid
Photovoltaics – Government Support Government support for Photovoltaics <ul><li>Research and Development Programs </li></ul><ul><li>Domestic and Large-scale Field Trials </li></ul><ul><li>Major PV-demonstration programs </li></ul><ul><li>Feed-in-Tariffs or Incentives </li></ul><ul><li>Tax Credits </li></ul>2.3 billion tax credit financing Promote clean energy manufacturing projects in 43 states in the United States United States $874 million - Solar photovoltaics $370 m $172 m $286 m $370 million goes to the producers of polysilicon; about $172 million more goes to companies that make polysilicon-based PV modules. About $286 million, is to be directed toward the manufacture of thin-film products China The Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development--a national subsidy program for building-integrated solar photovoltaic buildings (B.I.P.V.) and rooftop systems in rural and remote regions. Japan Largest-ever economic stimulus program–$55 billion over 5 years. The plan includes a huge boost for solar photovoltaic (PV) systems Solar homes and communities plan--aimed at using 150 million AUD to subsidize small-scale distributed solar implementation through a rebate of 8000 AUD for the first kilowatt of installed capacity. Australia
Environmental Remediation Carbon Capture and Storage
CCS – Technology Segmentation Carbon capture Technological Pathways Carbon Transport – Methods High pressure pipelines CO 2 transport has been utilized for over 30 years in North America; over 30 metric tones (Mt) CO 2 from natural and anthropogenic sources are transported per year through 6,200 km of CO 2 pipelines in the USA and Canada. Carbon Storage – Options for geological storage Power and Heat Amine absorption Power and heat Gasification + CO2 Separation Air Separation Unit Power and heat Cleaned Flue Gas CO2 compression and dehydration Cleaned Flue Gas Fossil Fuel Air Fossil Fuel Air Fossil Fuel Air Post-combustion Pre-combustion Oxy-Fuel CO 2 Sources Trucks Ships Deep unminable coal seams Oil and gas reservoirs Saline formations
CCS - Technology Status CCS Technology Current Status Post-Combustion Technologies <ul><li>Existing technologies with hundreds of plants in operation in gas processing and chemicals industry. </li></ul><ul><li>Largely unproven for large-scale flue gas mixtures. </li></ul><ul><li>Technical challenge - scale and integration of complete systems for combustion gases. </li></ul>Pre-Combustion Technologies <ul><li>Several coal IGCC plants in operation around the world. </li></ul><ul><li>Several demo projects under development. </li></ul><ul><li>Challenges - Scale/integration for large IGCC plants </li></ul>Oxy Fuel Technologies <ul><li>Trials of small scale plants in progress in the power sector (<30 MW); 250 MW plants proven in blast furnaces. </li></ul><ul><li>Challenges: High capital, operating costs, and lack of warranty </li></ul>Carbon Dioxide Storage <ul><li>Deep saline formations--most promising long-term storage option </li></ul><ul><li>Need for both regional and site-specific exploration to establish viable storage resources. </li></ul>Stakeholders • Research organizations and universities • Government bodies • Technology developers that develop the technology for licensing • Boiler and combustion turbine manufacturers involved in technology development • Utility companies and power plant operators who will be the users of the technologies • Operators of transportation and storage of CO 2
CCS – Technology Competence Concerted efforts are needed from the government, academia, and industry for faster commercialization <ul><li>Relevant Trends </li></ul><ul><li>Government Funding toward CCS technologies </li></ul><ul><li>Market Pull from the Power Industry </li></ul><ul><li>Increase in number of CCS projects worldwide </li></ul><ul><li>Challenges </li></ul><ul><li>Highly Expensive </li></ul><ul><li>Carbon capture in power plants unproven on a commercial scale </li></ul><ul><li>Lack of proven long-term storage </li></ul><ul><li>Reducing efficiency of power plant resulting in low amount of power produced </li></ul>Competency of Carbon Capture and storage
CCS – Government Funding Australia –The Australian government has committed AUD 2 bn (USD 1.65 bn) in funding for large-scale CCS demonstrations in Australia. In addition, Australia has committed AUD 100 million (m) a year for three years for the formation of the Global CCS Institute. Canada –The Canadian Federal government has announced financial support of CAD 1.3 bn (USD 1.2 bn) for research and development (R&D), mapping and demonstration project support. In addition, the Province of Alberta has assigned CAD 2 bn (USD 1.8 bn) in funding to support CCS deployment. European Union –The European Union (EU) has set aside the revenue from the auctioning of 300 m credits within their Emissions Trading Scheme for the support of CCS and renewable energy. The EU has also allocated EUR 1.05 bn (USD 1.5 bn) from their economic recovery energy program for the support of seven CCS projects. Japan –The Japanese government has budgeted JPY 10.8 bn (USD 116 m) for study on large-scale CCS demonstration since fiscal year 2008. Norway –Since 1991, Norwegian authorities have had an offshore CO 2 tax for oil and gas operations; this tax is currently NOK 230 (USD 40)/MtCO2. Norway has also announced the allocation of NOK 1.2 bn (USD 205 m) for CCS projects. UK –In addition to the broader EU funding, UK has announced funding for up to four CCS projects. UK has recently announced that the remaining projects will be funded through a levy on electricity suppliers, to take effect in 2011. United States –The recent Economic Recovery Act includes USD 3.4 bn in funding for clean coal and CCS technology development. USD 1.0 bn has been allocated for developing and testing new ways to produce energy from coal. USD 800 m will augment funds for the Clean Coal Power Initiative with a focus on carbon capture, and USD 1.52 bn will fund industrial CO 2 capture projects, including a small allocation for the beneficial reuse of CO 2 .
CCS Global Developments – Current Status Commercial CCS projects Sleipner: The carbon dioxide is re-injected about 1000 m below the sea floor into the Utsaira saline formation. The formation is estimated to have a capacity of 600 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide. In Salah : Krechba geologic formation lies about 1800 m below ground and is expected to receive 17 million tonnes of carbon dioxide over the period of the project. Snohvit : Europe’s first liquefied natural gas (LNG) plant captures carbon dioxide for injection and storage. This project captures about 700,000 tonnes a year of carbon dioxide. Weyburn Midale : 2.8 million tonnes a year of carbon dioxide is captured at the great plains synfuels plant in the US state of North Dakota . Australia launched in April 2009, the Global CCS Institute (GCCSI) to foster international collaboration for near-term, large-scale demonstration projects. In Brazil , oil company Petrobras is investing in two to four large-scale demonstration projects. A consortium of companies in China is moving forward with the GreenGen projec. France is developing smaller-scale demonstration projects as part of a EUR 1 billion funding package for research and development; these projects will be expanded after their performance is assessed. Italy’s Enel, the national electricity company, is developing one pilot plant. Norway is continuing its leadership by developing the Mongstad and Karstø projects. South Africa will launch a CCS Centre in September 2009, and plans to rapidly build capacity with the aim of having at least one full-scale project operational by 2020. The United Arab Emirates has three large-scale CCS projects under development, building on the region’s expertise in enhanced oil recovery. UK is advancing CCS via its large-scale demonstration competition, which will announce one major project to be operational by 2014; in addition, in April 2009 the government announced proposals to establish a mechanism to support up to four large-scale CCS demonstrations and to require any new coal-fired power plant over 300 mW capacity to demonstrate CCS on a proportion of its capacity.
Green Buildings – Technology Segmentation Green Building Technologies Heating, Ventilation and Air Conditioning Systems Building Automation and Management Systems Smart and Vacuum Windows Integrated Renewable Energy systems Low-VOC Coats, Paints, Plasters, and Sealants Green Materials
Green Buildings – Industry scenario Emerging Technologies Future Trends Benefits and Barriers Industry Trends Smart windows, vacuum windows and door panes, online dashboard programs, self-powered wireless sensors, insulating nanocoatings and aerogels, self-cleaning and depolluting materials, organic light-emitting diodes (OLEDs) and quantum dot lighting, organic thin-film solar cell technologies, efficient BEM systems, water management systems, roof top PVs, green roof tops, low-VOC emitting carpets and paints. Product solutions are building integrated photovoltaics, smart grids and meters connected to BIPVs, solar heaters, green concrete products, and heat insulating windows and doors. Challenges Drivers <ul><li>Increased focus to reduce energy consumption </li></ul><ul><li>Reduced operating costs </li></ul><ul><li>The ‘green’ brand </li></ul><ul><li>Reduction of carbon emissions </li></ul><ul><li>Lack of Incentives </li></ul><ul><li>Market Demand is not yet fully established </li></ul><ul><li>Need for R&D in Asian countries </li></ul><ul><li>Integrated Renewable energy systems </li></ul><ul><li>Efficient insulation of enclosed spaces </li></ul><ul><li>Efficient building automation of commercial buildings. </li></ul><ul><li>Use of only low-VOC paints and coatings. </li></ul><ul><li>Use of ecofriendly materials in HVACs. </li></ul><ul><li>Favorable legislations. </li></ul><ul><li>Consolidation of the green buildings industry </li></ul><ul><li>Standardization of design and associated processes </li></ul><ul><li>Complexity and cost reduction in technology use </li></ul><ul><li>Green house gas (GHG) inventory and management </li></ul><ul><li>Green building certifications </li></ul><ul><li>Zero energy buildings (ZEBs) </li></ul><ul><li>New carbon regulations. </li></ul>
Competition to develop Green Technology Industries is intensifying globally. Countries across the world are investing substantial resources to develop Green Technology Industries <ul><li>United Kingdom </li></ul><ul><li>UK has launched Low Carbon Transition Plan to provide framework strategy on how to tackle climate change </li></ul>USA Its green policy outline: - Help create five million new jobs by strategically investing $150bn over the next ten years to catalyse private efforts to build a clean energy future. - Put 1 million (American-built) plug-in hybrid cars on the road by 2015 - Ensure 10% of electricity from renewable sources by 2012, and 25% by 2025 <ul><li>China </li></ul><ul><li>China has adopted "green credit" and "green insurance" in recent months and has plans for "green taxation" and "green trade" to help clean up the economy. </li></ul><ul><li>Japan </li></ul><ul><li>2008 - Yasuo Fukuda, PM, Japan, plans to designate 10 environmental model-cities which will work hard to reduce greenhouse gases. </li></ul><ul><li>Under the terms of Kyoto Protocol treaty, Japan is supposed to cut carbon-dioxide emissions by 6% from 1990 levels by 2010 . </li></ul><ul><li>Europe </li></ul><ul><li>Kyoto Protocol lays out cuts of 8% by Switzerland, most Central and East European states, and the European Union </li></ul>Keeping in mind government’s vision and global developments, what should be the way forward for Malaysia? Global Green Initiatives
Key Trends and Future Direction Cleantech/ Greentech Technology: Renewables Move Into Traditional Sectors Economics: Stimulus Funds Encourage Development and Adoption Customers: Economic Circumstances Dictate Green Purchasing Decisions Legal: Technology Investors Vie to Protect IP Systems: Smart Grids Let Utilities Increase Energy Production Efficiency Politics: Politicians Push Clean and Green Regulations Markets: Lookk for Growthin Sectors that Will Benefit from Energy Efficiency, i.e. Smart Homes Social: Consumers and Voters Demand Clean Air and Water, Climate Change “ Energy Sources & Storage” Top 3 Areas “ Upgrading Water & Wastewater” Smart Grid Control Centre Wind Power Solar Power Energy Storage Hospital “ Smart Grids” Own Generation
Innovating to Zero Carbon Emission! Solar PV Cells Travelling Wave Reactor (TWR) Bio fuels Geothermal Energy Ocean Energy Hydro Power In terms of regions, Asia and Oceania has the biggest installed capacity followed by Europe. Meanwhile, China, United States, Canada, Brazil, and Russia have the biggest hydropower markets. Capacity of Solar Power to Increase from 21,540 MW in 2020 to 630,000 MW in 2040 Wide deployment of TWRs could enable projected global stockpiles of depleted uranium to sustain 80% of the world’s population at U.S. per capita energy usages for over a millennium Share of Geothermal Electricity in total electricity produced in 2020 is 1.5% INNOVATING TO ZERO CARBON EMISSION! At this moment, the ocean’s potential for energy generation is 5000 times more than the current usage of electricity. In other words, $10,000 trillion sales of electricity can be generated from the ocean alone. Focus has shifted to second-generation biofuels, which are anticipated to address controversies surrounding biofuels by producing fuel in a sustainable manner. Wind Energy To Account for 1,900,000 MW of electricity production in 2020
For Additional Information Kee Wai Fun Senior Industry Analyst Technical Insights +603 6207 1051 [email_address]