Augmented Reality and 3D Displays in Europe


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A presentation on augmented reality by analyst Craig Cartier.

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Augmented Reality and 3D Displays in Europe

  1. 1. Augmented Reality and 3D Displays in Europe – Gimmicks or Future of Mobile? Craig Cartier, Research Analyst ICT August 30, 2011
  2. 2. Today’s Presenter: Craig Cartier Functional Expertise 4 years experience in telecom market with 3 years operational expertise at wireless carrier. Particular expertise in: - Product Management - Partner Management & Platform Management - Developing and implementing business strategy - Business Development Industry Expertise 4 years experience in Telecom industry with focus on Wireless Data technologies - Mobile Music, Ringtones and Ringback tones - Emerging technologies such as 3G and Augmented Reality - Wireless Data Strategy - Central/Eastern Europe Telecom market What I bring to the TeamCraig Cartier Direct telecom experienceTelecom Consultant Strong analytical skills Unique blend of technical/business strategy backgroundFrost & Sullivan Relationships in the Telecom IndustryCentral/Eastern Europe Career Highlights Ran $100+ Million P&L in Digital Music Developed multi-million dollar strategic partnership in mobile music management Developed technical strategy for Network Operator business threats like Skype Developed test software for Operator VoIP lab Education Bachelor of Science, Computer Engineering, Iowa State University, Ames, Iowa, USA 2
  3. 3. 3D Popularity is On the Rise More 3D films have been released in the last decade than the former four decades combined 3D Market: 3D Film Releases by Decade (World), 1900-2010 Gimmicky 3D Number of Releases killed the last boom…could it happen again? Decade Source: 3D@Home Consortium 3
  4. 4. 3D ExperienceThere are Several Visual Cues that Contribute to 3D Perception Monocular (one eye) Cues Binocular (two eye) Cues • Perspective What are binocular cues? • Relative size • Stereopsis • Lighting and Shading • Convergence • And many more 4
  5. 5. 3D ContentBox office smash or Gimmicky Flop? V S. Source: 20th Century Fox Source: Walt Disney Pictures $2.7 billion in box office receipts $39 million in box office receipts Creating quality 3D content is a challenge. Customer- facing 3D companies (MNOs, device manufacturers) should partner with trusted content providers to give users easy access to quality 3D. 5
  6. 6. Autostereoscopic Display TechnologiesParallax barrier• Benefits• Drawbacks• ExamplesLenticular lenses• Benefits• DrawbacksAlso: Directional backlight 6
  7. 7. Case Study: Nintendo 3DSThe Nintendo 3DS, a 3D update to the Nintendo DS was released in Europe on 25 March. Initial sales have beenbelow expectations, and prices have been cut from £269.99 to £130-£140. Adjustable auto- stereoscopic parallax 3D slide bar to adjust barrier 3D display strength of 3D effect • Pre-recorded video cannot be adjusted Partnerships with key using slide bar; industry participants to however, the 3D offer 3D content, which effect can be can be passively completely switched downloaded over WiFi on/off connection: • 3D effect is rendered • Sky 3D in real-time • Eurosport Dual external cameras 3D Games for 3D image capture • Video capture is not available, but may be in future devices Source: Nintendo Note: Nintendo competitor Sony will not pursue autostereoscopic 3D on “Vita” its next-generation portable device 7
  8. 8. Case Study: LG Optimus 3DThe LG Optimus 3D was launched in Europe in June, making it Europe’s first 3D device. Pricing is near £500 Dual 5MP cameras for 3D video and image capture 3D Implications Dual channel, dual Surprisingly, LG was the only core, dual major manufacturer to make a 3D memory, for superior device announcement at MWC. graphics • Uptake of the Optimus 3D will processing, among drive the long-term 3D strategy other applications for the other participants in the Parallax barrier game display technology Source: LG Partnership with YouTube enables direct upload of captured 3D content to YouTube’s 3D channel. 8
  9. 9. Key Drivers: 3D No Glasses required Customer Relatively Low Cost Booming Industry in Preference for 3D Other Mediums Source: Frost & Sullivan. 9
  10. 10. Key Restraints: 3D Technical Restraints Lack of 3D Content Price Sensitive Market Range of Content Quality Source: Frost & Sullivan. 10
  11. 11. Mobile Device Manufacturers – Smartphone Projections Smart Phone Shipments by LGs recent Manufacturer 2010-2015 (Worldwide) struggles may 250 have prompted itsSmart Device Shipments (Millions) 200 attention to 3D 150 2010 100 2011 50 2012 0 2013 2014 2015 Source: Frost & Sullivan Device Manufacturer HTC and Samsung have taken a more conservative approach to 3D 11
  12. 12. Augmented Reality Overview 12
  13. 13. Augmented Reality – IntroductionAR is the fusion of real and virtual information intoa single experience. This technology, while simplydefined, is behind some of the most interestingnew applications in the mobile space today. Source: Lego Source: Wikitude Source: Metaio Source: Google Images 13
  14. 14. Application Categories• Marketing and Advertising • Billboards, Print Advertising, Other mediums like T-Shirts• Navigation • Point of Interest (POI) search • Turn-by-turn navigation • Indoor navigation, offering directions in airports or industry conferences. Source: Metaio• Translation• Instruction • Virtually show a finished product when it is still in assembly• Gaming• Tourism • Wikipedia information overlayed on physical site • Museums have installed AR markers for patrons, which can access more information about exhibits• And more Source: Wikitude Source: Wikitude Source: Metaio Source: Metaio 14
  15. 15. Key Trend – AR Browsers Benefits • One-stop shop for Drawbacks AR-interested • Users don‘t want customers AR, they want • Developers can build solutions AR apps more • Discovery becomes efficiently challenging • AR browser can • Limitations on automatically port functionality applications to many different devices 15
  16. 16. Browser Profile – LayarLargest AR Browser by usage, media exposureand investment. Based in Amsterdam• Funding• 1.5 million active users• 1,700 Layers (applications within AR browser)• Pre-loaded on Samsung and LG devices“Layar Player” launched in January, 2011“Layar Vision” introduced in August 2011 Strengths: Largest consumer base and heavy investment enables its growth. Layar player can be easily integrated with other applications. Weaknesses: Lack of image recognition technology, lack of customized solutions 16
  17. 17. Browser Profile – Junaio (Brand of Metaio) • Image processing showcased in industrial applicationsJunaio is the mobile brand of the German AR • Other applications include geo-positioning with LLAcompany Metaio markers for indoor navigation• Main asset is “Unifeye” Software • Junaio boasts 1 million downloads of its AR browser Platform, enabling AR applications in mobile, PC, and custom applications such as kiosks.• It differentiates itself as an AR R&D company versus a mobile applications company like Layar Strengths: Image recognition technology integrated in and Mobilizy (parent of Wikitude) AR browser platform enables wide range of applications and support for customized solutions Weaknesses: Lags Layar in consumer exposure Source: Metaio 17
  18. 18. Case Study – Industrial Applications AR is currently in use by nearly every major auto manufacturer as a way to visualize completed components while they are still in the assembly line. However, nearly all current AR applications are custom-made stationary models, and are not available for mobile.• 3-D renderings of industrial parts are stored in JT format, which is a 3D imaging standard.• There are technical barriers that prevent the entire library of JT files from being used on mobile phones.• Heavy lifting required for this application to go mobile Copyright 2010, Metaio 18
  19. 19. Case Study – Indoor Navigation Map accuracy is retained for1: User scans LLA marker 3: about 30 seconds of movement after initial scan. Source: Metaio User must then re-check in using another LLA Application registers location using LLA marker 2: and then can track phone movement using compass and accelerometer, showing Source: Metaio POIs on screen. 19
  20. 20. Value Chain Analysis – Consumer Applications Content Application Device Mobile Network AR Browser App Store Manufacturer Operator Provider/Brand DeveloperMost of the developers or content providers adopt similar paths to reach their customers.• Content providers, ranging from local merchants to global brands, can be anyone looking to develop AR applications.• AR browsers, such as Layar, are partnering with device manufacturers to be pre-installed on new devices • Layar announced it was preloaded on 1 out of 3 smartphones sold globally this year• Some AR applications are sold as standalone products in application stores or as part of a wider application• Companies are likely to continuously attempt to go around others farther up the value chain 20
  21. 21. Key Drivers SummaryWow Factor Detailed Analytics Application Industry Support White Space Source: Frost & Sullivan. 21
  22. 22. Key Restraints Summary Fragmented Technical Inaccuracy of Geo Developer Ecosystem Limitations Location Unclear Value Add Source: Frost & Sullivan. 22
  23. 23. Future state AR is a fascinating new technology that holds great promise for future development. Further developments in two associated technologies could accelerate adoption of AR: Eye displays: Source: Garmin GPS accuracy Source: NTT DoCoMo 23
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  27. 27. For Additional InformationJoanna Lewandowska Gustavo CuryCorporate Communications Sales ManagerICT ICT Europe, Israel, and Africa+48 22 390 41 46 +44 (0)20 7343 gustavo.cury@frost.comCraig Cartier Adrian DrozdResearch Analyst Research ManagerICT Europe ICT Europe+48 22-390-4161 +44 (0) 1865 398 27