Good afternoon ladies and gentlemen and welcome to the presentation on Analysis of APAC Market for Neighbourhood Electric Vehicles. This research service was recently concluded by our experts and published on frost.com in March.
This slide gives an overview of the agenda for today’s briefing. I will start the presentation by talking about the definitions of different types of battery electric vehicles followed by an overview of the market for neighbourhood electric vehicles, market life cycle analysis along with market structure of NEVs, key components that are incorporated in NEVs, global market sizing of electric vehicles with further breakdown of NEVs by region. I will also provide a snapshot of market share of OEMs and conclude by discussing about threat analysis for market entrants and conclusions and recommendation slides.
The next slide gives definitions of battery electric vehicles. NEVs NEV is a US Department Of Transportation classification for vehicles weighing less than 3,000 lbs (GVW) and having a top speed of 25 mph. NEVs are generally restricted to operate on streets with a speed limit of 35 mph or less. Typical examples of NEVs are Reva G-Wiz in UK, Zenn Cars, Zap models. City Electric vehicles are common type of electric vehicles intended for use in urban areas and capable of operating in city/highway environment. Examples include Smart EV, Think City, Nissan leaf. E-REVs and PHEVs are extension of hybrid vehicles with a combination of engine and electric motor. Typical examples are Volt, Prius plug in etc. HPEVs are vehicles with top speeds exceeding 100mph and price of these vehicles exceeding $100,000. Examples of HPEV OEMs are Tesla, Venturi.
This slides gives an overview about NEV market in APAC. The market for NEVs is still at introductory stage in APAC region with OEMs such as Reva, CT&T having low sales volumes due to disadvantages in terms of top speed, limited range and safety concerns for the consumers. NEVs also need to compete with other types of electric vehicles such as city electric vehicles, Plug in hybrids and hybrids in terms of top speed and vehicle range. Furthermore, there are no legislations or incentives that are likely to drive the growth of NEVs in APAC. However, NEVs are used both as personal and commercial vehicles in different parts of APAC region and the costs of NEVs are far lesser as compared to other types of EVs. OEMs are working closely with local governments and utilities to commercialize NEVs at a faster pace.
This slide outlines the market structure of NEVs. The market structure of NEVs are different from conventional vehicles. There are lot of opportunities for new players to enter the market. OEMs are still at the top end of the value chain as they sell the vehicles to the consumers. However the component players play a very important role in NEV market since they form the crux of the vehicle. Other players in the market include charging station manufacturers such as Hero electric in india, Electrotherm, ECOtality that will aid to charge the vehicles overnight or fast charge. Most of the utilities are likely to play a major role in NEV market mainly due to electric charging of the vehicle. Regional and local governments are also jumping the bandwagon and trying to provide incentives and introduce new legislations to commercialise NEVs at a faster pace that further reduces emissions.
This slide talks about the key components that are used in NEVs. Batteries and electric motors form the key components that are equipped in NEVs. Almost 75% of NEVs use lead acid batteries due to costs constraints. However, the top speed and the vehicle range is limited due to the usage of lead acid batteries. Some of the future NEVs are likely to use Lithium Ion batteries. Reva G-Wiz that is sold in UK has already been equipped with lithium ion batteries due to advantages in terms of higher top speed and longer range. In terms of motors, again almost 75% of NEVs use DC motors due to lower costs and regenerative braking is not much in NEVs due to limited storage. However, in the future with advances in battery technology, AC motors will be used for future NEVs.
This slide provides threat analysis for market entrants of NEV market in APAC. The main threats that are likely to hinder the market entry include Technical and speed limitations of NEVs restricts their growth to niche markets and hence consumers will not be comfortable to drive these vehicles and fear of anxiety will always be there in consumer minds, EV charging infrastructure is still under development in APAC and hence likely to affect the production and sales volumes of NEVs, No specific legislations promoting the uptake of NEVs unlike countries such as US, Canada where incentives are provided to buy NEVs.
This slide is continuation of the previous slide in terms of threat analysis for new market entrants. The cost of NEVs continue to be high though components such as Lead acid batteries and DC motors are used mainly due to limitations in terms of uptake rates. Offer of incentives or subsidies on purchase of NEVs yet to be implemented by local governments that are further delaying the mass commercialisation of NEVs. There will always be Competition from higher Speed EVs from reputed OEMs and competition from hybrids, plug-in hybrids and fuel cell cars going forward.
The final slide talks about conclusions and recommendations of NEV market in APAC region. The focus has to be mainly on developing commercial applications of NEVs as urban commuter transport, fire trucks, garbage, patrol vehicles rather than passenger vehicles where the uptake rates are lower. Market players need to concentrate on regions such as China, India, South Korea since they are likely to be future production hubs due to strong supply and value chain. Market players need to push governments to develop legislations for NEV use in APAC. OEMs and suppliers need to form international partnerships to exchange information and experience to promote the development and growth NEV markets in APAC
APAC Market for Neighbourhood Electric Vehicles
Analysis of APAC Market for Neighbourhood Electric Vehicles<br />Vijay Rao, Research Manager<br />Automotive & Transportation<br />4th April 2011<br />
Definitions – Battery Electric Vehicles<br />Battery Electric Vehicles: Electric vehicles (EVs) use electric motors instead of an internal combustion engine (ICE) to propel a vehicle. The electric power is derived from a battery of one of several chemistries including lead acid, nickel metal hydride (NiMH) and lithium-ion (Li-ion).<br />Extended-range EVs (E-REVs)<br />High-Performance Electric Vehicles (HPEVs)<br />Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicle (PHEVs)<br />Neighbourhood Electric Vehicles (NEVs)<br />City Electric Vehicles (CEVs)<br />These vehicles have an internal combustion engine (ICE) or other secondary source connected in a series configuration to a generator to supply the batteries. The drive range and speeds are comparable to IC engine vehicles.<br />These are sporty PHEVs or battery electric vehicles with top speeds exceeding 100 mph and driving range exceeding 100 miles. The price of these vehicles is expected to approach or exceed $100,000.<br />A plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) has an internal combustion engine (ICE) with a motor along with a battery connected in parallel to the ICE. They are generally regarded as full hybrids with bigger motor/battery and a plug to recharge.<br />NEV is a US DOT classification for vehicles weighing less than 3,000 lbs (GVW) and having a top speed of 25 mph. NEVs are generally restricted to operate on streets with a speed limit of 35 mph or less.<br />A city car is a European classification for small and light vehicles intended for use in urban areas although capable of operating in mixed city-highway environment. In Japan, city cars are called kei cars. <br />Chevy Volt, Opel Ampera and others<br />GEM e2, e4, e6; REVA G-Wiz i; ZENN; ZAP and others<br />Smart EV, Th!nk City, BMW Mini and others<br />Tesla, Venturi Fetish, Lightning GT, etc<br />Toyota Prius PHEV, Ford Fusion PHEV, etc<br />
Market Overview - Low emissions, lesser vibrations, suitability for short distance driving, low maintenance and recharge cost are the key drivers for market growth<br />Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle Market: Market Overview (APAC), 2010<br /><ul><li>NEVs in APAC have both commercial and passenger applications. China, South Korea and Philippines, NEVs are emerging as a suitable transport medium for government utility vehicles, patrol vehicles and commuter shuttle transport vehicles respectively. In India and Japan, NEVs are used as personal transport.
The market for NEVs in APAC is still at introductory stage. Several OEMs in the region such as Reva, CT&T, Kandi Technologies have launched NEV models for various applications. Several new models from the above OEMs are also in the pipeline
Presently more than 75% of NEVs in APAC work on rechargeable lead acid batteries and DC electric motors.
Low vehicle speed, limited range on one charge and competition from other alternate fuel vehicles are the key market restraints affecting growth
Most countries in APAC Region are in the process of building recharge infrastructure for EVs. In most regions, this is a joint effort of OEMs, electric utility companies and the government
Prices of NEVs in APAC range from USD 2,223 for Tara Tiny to USD 16,000 for CT&T e-zone. Running cost ranges from 0.50 cents/km to 6 cents/km
Limited consumer acceptability, Lesser range and top speed, competition from higher speed electric vehicles, limited recharging infrastructure, absence of legislations and limited subsidies and incentives are key industry challenges
The market is dominated by small and mid size OEMs manufacturing NEVs primarily for exports to high growth US and European markets. Chinese OEMs dominate the global NEV market by supplying all categories of NEVs</li></ul>Source : Frost & Sullivan<br />
Market Life Cycle Analysis - The NEV market is at the introductory stage in APAC and is expected to reach high growth phase by 2015<br />Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle Market: Life Cycle Analysis (APAC), 2001-2050<br />2001<br />2009<br />2020<br />2050<br />2040<br />Introduction<br />Growth<br />Maturity<br />Decline<br /><ul><li>Growing Electric Vehicle Adopters:</li></ul> Qingdao Greentec, China, Kandi Technologies, China, CT& T South Korea, Eu Auto Technology, Hong Kong<br /> Tara International, India, Zerosports Motor Co., Japan.<br /><ul><li>High Growth Market in APAC : China, India and South Korea
Early NEV Adopters:</li></ul>REVA <br />(now Mahindra REVA) , India<br /><ul><li>Threat due to City Electric Vehicles with Safety Features</li></ul>City electric vehicles are capable of running up to 150 km/hr with safety features.<br /><ul><li>Saturation and Decline of NEVs:</li></ul> Fight for market share retention and difficult to expand market share significantly and growth of hybrid and fuel cell vehicles.<br />Source: Frost & Sullivan<br />
Market Structure of NEVs<br />Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle Market: Market Structure (APAC), 2010<br />Utilities<br />China State Grid, KEPCO TEPCO, BSES, Delhi<br />OEMs<br />CT&T, Kandi Technologies, Mahindra Reva, Qingdao Green Tec, Shifeng Auto<br />Assemblers/ Integrators<br />PhUV, Philippines, Club Car, Australia<br />Government<br />China, South Korea, India, Philippines, Japan , Australia <br />Component Suppliers (Battery)<br />Trojan Battery,<br />Exide, SK Energy<br />Charging Station Manufacturer<br />ECOtality Inc, Hero Electric, Electrotherm<br />Source : Frost & Sullivan<br />The company logos mentioned are only for descriptive purpose<br />
Key Components of NEVs - Batteries and Electric Motors used in NEVs<br />Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle Market: Battery Systems Used (APAC), 2010<br />Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle Market: Electric Motors Systems Used (APAC), 2010<br />Source : Frost & Sullivan<br /><ul><li>Presentlymore than 75% of NEVs in APAC use rechargeable lead acid batteries and DC electric motors.
Some companies such as Reva, CT&T and EuAuto Technology have plans to offer the option of lithium-ion Batteries in their NEVs.</li></li></ul><li>Global Electric Vehicle Demand Analysis – Potential Sales of 2.2 M in F&S Scenario by 2017<br />Electric Vehicle Market: Sales Forecasts Scenario Analysis (World), 2009-2017<br />Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan<br />
NEV Market Breakdown By Region - China is likely to be the biggest market for NEVs both in terms of production and sales<br />Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle Market: Market Breakdown by Region (APAC), 2009 - 2016<br />Production of NEVs in APAC Countries, 2016<br />151,990<br />India and China to account for more than 50% of the NEV production in 2016<br />12,455<br />2009<br />2016<br />Others include Australia, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Philippines<br />Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan<br />
Market Share of OEMs<br />Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle Market: Market Share of OEMs (APAC), 2009 and 2016<br />Note: All figures are rounded; the base year is 2009. Source: Frost & Sullivan<br />
Threat Analysis for Market Entrants<br />Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle Market: Threat Analysis (APAC), 2010<br />Source : Frost & Sullivan<br />
Threat Analysis for Market Entrants<br />Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle Market: Threat Analysis (APAC), 2010<br />Source : Frost & Sullivan<br />
Conclusions and Recommendations<br />Neighbourhood Electric Vehicle Market: Recommendations (APAC), 2010<br />Focus on developing commercial applications of NEVs as urban commuter transport, fire trucks, garbage, patrol vehicles<br />OEMs to form international partnerships to exchange information and experience to promote the development and growth NEV markets in APAC<br />China, India and South Korea to be production hubs for NEVs in APAC exporting to markets such as Europe and North America<br />OEMs to continue to work in tandem with governments, suppliers and electricity Companies to develop EV infrastructure<br />Market players to push governments to develop legislations for NEV use in APAC<br />
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