2015 To-the-Point (Trend 8): Power Generation Goes Decentralised
Solar PV is reaching grid parity, with module costs continuing to decline.
R&D into energy storage technologies, particularly Li-ion, is driving the
cost down, with many demonstration projects ongoing globally.
Electric vehicles enabling Vehicle-to-Grid are viewed as an important
component of smart grid development. Tesla Motors’ announcement last
year to build a Li-ion gigafactory was a game changer and spurred the EV
market into action.
Rise of the prosumer, advanced microgrids, and technologies that provide
greater grid flexibility will keep the momentum going for distributed
generation in 2015.
Continued strong growth will be shown in residential and commercial solar PV, with capacity increasing by 20GW
in 2015, half the total increase in global solar capacity. In terms of regional capacity additions, Asia Pacific will
continue to add the highest capacity, with North America overtaking Europe to move into second place.
DECENTRALISED PV WILL SHOW STRONG GROWTH
The increasing regulatory importance of energy efficiency in developed markets will drive demand for CHP in
2015. For developing regions, the decline in gas prices will be the key driver for growth.
The decline in new oil & gas exploration projects will result in lower genset sales into this sector. However, lower
fuel prices are forecast to stimulate demand from other applications, such as rental, industrial and so on.
Strong growth for storage systems linked to residential and commercial PV is forecast for 2015, as rates of return
in a number of global regions make these an increasingly attractive prospect. However, the transition from genset
back up to standalone battery storage systems is likely to slow temporarily due to lower oil prices.
ENERGY EFFICIENCY WILL DRIVE CHP GROWTH
LOW OIL & GAS PRICES WILL DRIVE GENSET USE
STORAGE WILL GROW WITH DECENTRALISED PV
Microgrids will begin the transition from pilot phase to commercialisation in 2015. Several island grids and grid-
connected commercial microgrids are expected to be launched.
MICROGRID COMMERCIALISATION WILL BEGIN
RESIDENTIAL PV SHOWS DOUBLE DIGIT GROWTH
GLOBAL GROWTH IN REVENUES FOR DECENTRALISED POWER
NOTE: Genset data only includes gensets for prime power applications and excludes revenues of diesel and gas gensets from CHP.
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For more information on Frost & Sullivan’s Energy & Environment
Outlook 2015 please contact:
Senior Industry Analyst