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2015 To-the-Point (Trend 6): Nuclear Rises in the East


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2015 To-the-Point (Trend 6): Nuclear Rises in the East

  1. 1. 10000-18 Nuclear power will continue to be a key energy source but with important regional variations. Nuclear will suffer in North America, where plant closures are ongoing due to shale gas competition, as well as, in Europe. The year 2015 will see the start of Germany’s scheduled nuclear phase-out, as the first of the remaining plants is taken off the grid. Asia, on the other hand, will see strong growth, led by China and South Korea. The Middle East is also poised for a major nuclear push. Japan, meanwhile, will restart nuclear capacity from 2015 onwards, reducing the country’s high reliance on imported fossil fuels in recent years. 2015 NuclearRises intheEast TOTHEPOINT
  2. 2. 20000-18 The year 2015 will mark the restart of nuclear generation in Japan. Since the Fukushima disaster of 2011, only two reactors - Kansai Electric's Ohi Units 3 and 4 – have operated temporarily, restarted in July 2012 and shut down again in September 2013. Kyushu Electric's two Sendai reactors in south-western Japan are expected to restart in mid-2015, while two reactors at Kansai Electric Power’s Takahama plant in central Japan are slated to be restarted at the end of the year. NUCLEAR WILL RETURN TO JAPAN Germany’s scheduled nuclear phase-out of the remaining plants will start in 2015. Eight of the country’s oldest reactors were closed in the immediate aftermath of Fukushima, while the remaining nine units will be closed between 2015 and 2022. E.ON will shut its Grafenrheinfeld reactor by May 2015, at least seven month earlier than under the original phase- out schedule. Pre-Fukushima, the plant was originally scheduled to be operated until 2028. The future of nuclear power in France will be hotly debated during 2015. The lower and upper houses of Parliament are in disagreement over a proposal to cap French nuclear output at current levels (66 GW) and reduce the share of nuclear generation to 50% (from 75% currently) by 2025. The outcome of this discussion - where the socialist government wants to reduce nuclear’s dominance - will define whether France can open its new Flamanville reactor without other closures. The US is expected to commission one new nuclear reactor by the end of 2015 (owned by TVA); however, while the country has four other reactors under construction, the future of many existing plants is in doubt given the challenge from low-cost gas plants. At least 13 of the existing 99 reactors are considered to be at the risk of closure, mostly located in the northeast US in deregulated power markets. GERMANY WILL PHASE OUT REMAINING NUCLEAR FRANCE’S NUCLEAR FUTURE WILL BE DEBATED SHALE GAS WILL THREATEN FUTURE NUCLEAR IN U.S. Construction of Turkey’s first nuclear plant is expected to start in 2015/2016, to be built by Russian firms. The country needs to reduce its overreliance on coal and gas and requires low-carbon power to meet its burgeoning energy needs. TURKEY’S NUCLEAR INDUSTRY WILL BEGIN 2015TRENDS
  3. 3. 30000-18 CHINA, KOREA AND RUSSIA ARE KEY MARKETS CURRENT INSTALL BASE POTENTIAL FOR NEW PLANTS LOW HIGH HIGH Countries with a large installed base but limited or no new investment expected. 1 Established nuclear power countries seeking to significantly expand capacity. 2 Mainly states looking to establish nuclear as part of the power mix 3 Source: Frost & Sullivan ATTRACTIVENESS OF NUCLEAR POWER IN KEY COUNTRIES Attractiveness of nuclear power is rated by the potential for new plant investment; countries with a high installed base will also have ongoing service and future decommissioning opportunities
  4. 4. 40000-18 Frost & Sullivan is growth partnership company focused on helping our clients achieve transformational growth We are the world leader in growth consulting and the integrated areas of technology research, market research, mega trends, economic research, best practices, training, customer research, competitive intelligence, and corporate strategy. Frost & Sullivan has over 40 offices across the globe with more than 1,800 industry consultants, market research analysts, technology analysts and economists. For more information on Frost & Sullivan’s Energy & Environment Outlook 2015 please contact: Ross Bruton +44 (0)2079157808 Senior Industry Analyst