2015 To-the-Point (Trend 6): Nuclear Rises in the East
Nuclear power will continue to be a key energy source but with important
Nuclear will suffer in North America, where plant closures are ongoing due
to shale gas competition, as well as, in Europe. The year 2015 will see the
start of Germany’s scheduled nuclear phase-out, as the first of the
remaining plants is taken off the grid. Asia, on the other hand, will see
strong growth, led by China and South Korea. The Middle East is also
poised for a major nuclear push. Japan, meanwhile, will restart nuclear
capacity from 2015 onwards, reducing the country’s high reliance on
imported fossil fuels in recent years.
The year 2015 will mark the restart of nuclear generation in Japan. Since the Fukushima disaster of 2011, only two
reactors - Kansai Electric's Ohi Units 3 and 4 – have operated temporarily, restarted in July 2012 and shut down again in
September 2013. Kyushu Electric's two Sendai reactors in south-western Japan are expected to restart in mid-2015,
while two reactors at Kansai Electric Power’s Takahama plant in central Japan are slated to be restarted at the end of
NUCLEAR WILL RETURN TO JAPAN
Germany’s scheduled nuclear phase-out of the remaining plants will start in 2015. Eight of the country’s oldest reactors
were closed in the immediate aftermath of Fukushima, while the remaining nine units will be closed between 2015 and
2022. E.ON will shut its Grafenrheinfeld reactor by May 2015, at least seven month earlier than under the original phase-
out schedule. Pre-Fukushima, the plant was originally scheduled to be operated until 2028.
The future of nuclear power in France will be hotly debated during 2015. The lower and upper houses of Parliament are
in disagreement over a proposal to cap French nuclear output at current levels (66 GW) and reduce the share of nuclear
generation to 50% (from 75% currently) by 2025. The outcome of this discussion - where the socialist government wants
to reduce nuclear’s dominance - will define whether France can open its new Flamanville reactor without other closures.
The US is expected to commission one new nuclear reactor by the end of 2015 (owned by TVA); however, while the
country has four other reactors under construction, the future of many existing plants is in doubt given the challenge from
low-cost gas plants. At least 13 of the existing 99 reactors are considered to be at the risk of closure, mostly located in
the northeast US in deregulated power markets.
GERMANY WILL PHASE OUT REMAINING NUCLEAR
FRANCE’S NUCLEAR FUTURE WILL BE DEBATED
SHALE GAS WILL THREATEN FUTURE NUCLEAR IN U.S.
Construction of Turkey’s first nuclear plant is expected to start in 2015/2016, to be built by Russian firms. The country
needs to reduce its overreliance on coal and gas and requires low-carbon power to meet its burgeoning energy needs.
TURKEY’S NUCLEAR INDUSTRY WILL BEGIN
CHINA, KOREA AND RUSSIA ARE KEY MARKETS
HIGH Countries with a large
installed base but limited or
no new investment expected.
1 Established nuclear
Mainly states looking to
establish nuclear as
part of the power mix
Source: Frost & Sullivan
ATTRACTIVENESS OF NUCLEAR POWER IN KEY COUNTRIES
Attractiveness of nuclear power is rated by the potential for new plant investment; countries with a high installed base
will also have ongoing service and future decommissioning opportunities
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For more information on Frost & Sullivan’s Energy & Environment
Outlook 2015 please contact:
Senior Industry Analyst