Fresh Energy's 2013 Power Breakfast | Shayle Kann: Solar in the U.S.: The Big Picture

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The first event of a three-part Solar Opportunities Series, Fresh Energy’s annual Power Breakfast outlined new and exciting solar opportunities for business and property owners. Learn more at fresh-energy.org/solarseries.

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  • Let’s go through the basics – PV has been growing year-over-year by anywhere between 10% - 145%, with roughly a 50% average CAGR. Early growth was incredibly fast, in 2008 and 2010 growth doubledFrom a top-down view, solar looks unstoppable
  • Let’s go through the basics – PV has been growing year-over-year by anywhere between 10% - 145%, with roughly a 50% average CAGR. Early growth was incredibly fast, in 2008 and 2010 growth doubledFrom a top-down view, solar looks unstoppable
  • We have European FiT markets to thank for the very quick growthBy the end of 2012, nearly 70% of Demand resulted directly from a European FiT program
  • But regressions in various FiT program to combat the rising cost of solar to the state has significantly weakened market growthMany European markets “overheated” and FiTs were either reduced, removed altogether, or retroactively taxed/reduced.Examples: Spain, Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Belgium – Italy and Germany were the reasonable stories
  • 7 states with some kind of community solar, active campaigns in 4 more. Huge program (500 MW or 1,000 MW in CA) – SB43 in front of CA legislature. Three crowdfunding companies.Imagine a world where an indidual can both invest in a solar array and earn a rate of return, while actually being the person who benefits from lower electricity prices as a result.
  • 7 states with some kind of community solar, active campaigns in 4 more. Huge program (500 MW or 1,000 MW in CA) – SB43 in front of CA legislature. Three crowdfunding companies.Imagine a world where an indidual can both invest in a solar array and earn a rate of return, while actually being the person who benefits from lower electricity prices as a result.
  • 7 states with some kind of community solar, active campaigns in 4 more. Huge program (500 MW or 1,000 MW in CA) – SB43 in front of CA legislature. Three crowdfunding companies.Imagine a world where an indidual can both invest in a solar array and earn a rate of return, while actually being the person who benefits from lower electricity prices as a result.
  • 7 states with some kind of community solar, active campaigns in 4 more. Huge program (500 MW or 1,000 MW in CA) – SB43 in front of CA legislature. Three crowdfunding companies.Imagine a world where an indidual can both invest in a solar array and earn a rate of return, while actually being the person who benefits from lower electricity prices as a result.
  • Fresh Energy's 2013 Power Breakfast | Shayle Kann: Solar in the U.S.: The Big Picture

    1. 1. Solar In the U.S. The Big Picture Shayle Kann Vice President, Research Greentech Media September 14, 2013
    2. 2. The Global Context
    3. 3. WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM Global PV on the Rise 3 Source: GTM Research 251 361 503 926 1,171 1,667 2,469 5,709 7,284 17,843 27,901 30,011 - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 InstalledCapacity(MWdc) Global PV Installed Capacity and Growth, 2000-2012 Annual Global PV Installations
    4. 4. WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM Driven Largely by Plummeting Panel Prices 4 Source: GTM Research
    5. 5. WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM What Drove Such Rapid Growth? 5 Source: GTM Research
    6. 6. WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM6 A Market in Transition
    7. 7. The U.S. Solar Market
    8. 8. WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM We’ve Come a Long Way 8 Source: GTM Research/SEIA® U.S. Solar Market Insight TM
    9. 9. WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM Source: GTM Research/SEIA® U.S. Solar Market Insight TM Residential Leasing But Growth Has Been Concentrated
    10. 10. Reasons for Excitement
    11. 11. WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM11 1) Cost Reductions Still To Come
    12. 12. WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM 2) Moving Beyond State Incentives 12 California PV Installations, 1H 2013 Source: GTM Research/SEIA® U.S. Solar Market Insight TM No State Incentives
    13. 13. WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM Who Can Invest in Solar: 1975-2008 Buy Rooftop Solar 2.5 Million HouseholdsBuy 3) The Democratization of Solar Investment
    14. 14. WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM Who Can Invest in Solar: 2009-2010 Buy Rooftop Solar, Lease Rooftop Solar Buy Rooftop Solar 2.5 Million Households 5.5 Million Households Buy Lease 3) The Democratization of Solar Investment
    15. 15. WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM Who Can Invest in Solar: 2011-2012 Buy Rooftop Solar, Lease Rooftop Solar, Invest in Community Solar Buy Rooftop Solar 2.5 Million Households 5.5 Million Households 11.1 Million Households Buy Lease Lease 3) The Democratization of Solar Investment
    16. 16. WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM Who Can Invest in Solar: 2013-? Buy Rooftop Solar, Lease Rooftop Solar, PACE Finance Solar, Invest in Crowdfunded Solar, Invest in Community Solar, Buy Solar MLPs, YieldCos, REITs, Buy Solar Securities Buy Rooftop Solar, Lease Rooftop Solar, Invest in Community Solar Buy Rooftop Solar 2.5 Million Households 5.5 Million Households 11.1 Million Households 73.0+ Million Individuals Buy Invest Lease Lease 3) The Democratization of Solar Investment
    17. 17. WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM So: Big Things to Come Source: GTM Research
    18. 18. WWW.GTMRESEARCH.COM Thank You! Shayle Kann Vice President, Research Greentech Media kann@gtmresearch.com

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