Fic en it-chart book presentation_14-jan-13

711 views

Published on

Published in: Business, Economy & Finance
0 Comments
0 Likes
Statistics
Notes
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

No Downloads
Views
Total views
711
On SlideShare
0
From Embeds
0
Number of Embeds
2
Actions
Shares
0
Downloads
4
Comments
0
Likes
0
Embeds 0
No embeds

No notes for slide

Fic en it-chart book presentation_14-jan-13

  1. 1. Economic Trends and Evolution of ChineseFinancial Sector Reforms: Scenarios andOpportunities for International InvestorsBACKGROUND DATAPrepared byFranco Fornasarif.fornasari@Valuetreepartners.comBethesda, 14-Jan-2013
  2. 2. FONTI – DATA SOURCESA-CAPITAL, Andre Loesekrug-Pietri, The Dragon Index, November 2012;ADBI, Asian Development Bank Institute, Yu Yongding, Revisiting the Internationalization of the Yuan, Working Paper366, 2012;Bloomberg News, China Picks Wenzhou for Small-Business Funding Experiment, March 28th, 2012;Caixin Media, Zhou, Xiaochuan, “Special Interview—everything about the renminbi”, Century Weekly, January 2, 2012;CIC, China Investment Corporation, Annual Report 2011;CICC, China International Capital Corporation Ltd., “China Economy Research”, November 6, 2012;CSEC (China Securities Regulatory Commission), Annual Report 2011;Euromoney – Bank of China, “The 2012 Euromoney Guide to China Cash Management”, June 2012;Euromeney – RBS, Renminbi convergence, is it inevitable and what are the risks? May 2012;Financial Times, Kathrin Hille and Rahul Jacob, “Beyond the conveyor belt”, October 15, 2012;Financial Times, Neil Buckley, “Beijing Targets European Shift”, November 9, 2012;Financial Times, China Special Report, December 12, 2012;FSB, Financial Stability Board: Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report, 2012;Global Finance, Laurence Neville, China in Europe, May 2012;Goldman Sachs, Economics Research, Asia Economics Flash, “China: Cooling off: The drivers and implications of CNYhot money outflows”; October 8, 2012;Goldman Sachs, Economics Research, Asia Economic Analyst, “China shifting to a lower gear”, N.12/16, September 20,2012;Garcia-Herrero Alicia, D.Santabarbara, “Is China’s Banking Sector Promoting its Economic Development: AnAssessment of an Unorthodox Banking Reform”, Paper presented at the Workshop on China Financial Market andInternationalization of the RMB, Helsinki, September 17-18, 2012;HKIMR (HONG KONG INSTITUTE FOR MONETARY RESEARCH), Dong He, Renminbi Internationalization: A Primer;July, 31st, 2012;ICBC, Urban Finance Research Center, Fan Zhigang, Conference Presentation, Rome, November 20th, 2012;IMF, Country Report No. 12/ 195 – People Republic of China – 2012 Article IV Consultation, July 2012;IMF - World Bank, Financial Sector Assessment Report, 2011;IMF, Global Financial Stability Report, October 2012;IMF- G20, People’s Republic of China, Sustainability Report 2011;
  3. 3. IMF, Ashvin Auhia , Mahlar Nabar, “Investment-led Growth in China: Glogbal Spillovers”, IMF WP 12/267, September2012IMF, Asfid Ahuja et Al., “An End to China Imbalances?”, Working Paper 12/100, April 2012;IMF, Shamar Maziad, J. Shik Kang, “The RMB Internationalization, Onshore / Offshore Linkages”, WP 12/133, May2012;IMF, Shaun K.Roche, “China’s Impact on World Commodities Markets”, IMF Wp 12/115; March 2012;Institutional Investor, Neil Sen,”China Spreads its Wings”, September 2012;JPMorgan-Chase, Bert Gochet, Conference Presentation, Rome, November 20, 2012;Oliver Wyman, “The Growth-Profitability Conundrum in Chinese Wholesale Banking”, Marsh-McLennan Co.,London, 2012;Oksanen, H. (2012), “Re-pegging the renminbi to a basket: issues and implications”, Asian-Pacific EconomicLiterature, 26: 18–33. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-8411.2012.01332.xUNIDO, Breaking In and Moving Up: New Industrial Challenges for the Bottom Billion and the Middle-IncomeCountries, Industrial Development Report 2009;Wall Street Journal, Lingling Wei, “China cracks the whip over informal lending”, October 17, 2011;Wall Street Journal, Dinny McMahon, “China Private Funds Bolster Local Government Projects, Raise Risks”,November 10-11, 2012;Wall Street Journal, Lingling Wei, “Lanscape Shifts for China Banks”, November 12, 2012;Wall Street Journal, Tom Orlik, Bob Davis, “Xi Inherits an Economy that needs Work, November 13, 2012;Wall Street Journal, Currency Trading, “China Finds a Friend Outside”, November 30, 2012;Wall Street Journal, Chinas Investments Prompt Call for New Rules, January 7th 2013Wall Street Journal, “China:Hidder Risks of Shadow Finance”, November 27, 2012Wall Street Journal, Chinas Investments Prompt Call for New Rules, Jan 7th 2013World Bank – DRC of the State Council, People’s Republic of China, “China 2030”, Washington,2011;World Bank, Global Financial Development Report 2013, Rethinking the Role of State in Finance, Washington,2012;Yi Gang, Renminbi Exchange Rates and relevant Institutional Factors, Cato Journal, Vol. 28, No. 2, Spring-Summer2008;Zhihong Yu , Markus Eberhardt, Christian Helmers, Is the dragon learning to fly? An analysis of the Chinese patentexplosion, 27 September 2011
  4. 4. 4Chart 1: Crescita Reale del PIL e Inflazione nel Lungo TermineLong-Term GDP Growth and InflationJPMorganFonte / Source: IMF Country Report No. 12/ 195 – PRC– 2012 Article IV Consultation
  5. 5. 5Chart 2: Tassi di Crescita del PIL; Graduatoria del PIL ($ Tril); PIL Pro-capiteGDP Growth; Global GDP Rankings ($ Trillion); Per-capita GDPFonte / Source: Wall Street Journal: China Real Time - Data Base
  6. 6. 6Chart 3-A: Contributi delle Componenti del PIL alla CrescitaContributions of GDP Components to GrowthFonte / Source: Wall Street Journal: China Real Time - Data Base
  7. 7. 7Chart 3-B: Dinamica di Esportazioni e Investimenti ImmobiliariDynamics of Export and Real Estate InvestmentFonte / Source: Wall Street Journal: China Real Time - Data Base
  8. 8. 8Chart 3-C: Saldo di Conto Corrente - Bilancia dei Pagamenti: Proiezioni IMF –Art. IV Consultations 2012 / BOP-Current Account Balance: IMF ProjectionsFonte / Source: IMF Country Report No. 12/ 195 – PRC– 2012 Article IV Consultation
  9. 9. 9Chart 4: Esportazioni Totali e per Mercati di Destinazione 2011-12Export Volumes and By Market of Destination 2011-12Fonte / Source: IMF Country Report No. 12/ 195 – PRC– 2012 Article IV Consultation
  10. 10. 10Chart 5: Crescita degli Investimenti Fissi Privati Industriali e FatturatoPrivate Fixed Asset Investment and SalesFonte / Source:Ashvin Auhia , Mahlar Nabar, Investment-led Growth in China: Global Spillovers, IMF WP 12/267
  11. 11. 11Chart 6: Composizione degli Investimenti Fissi Totali e IndustrialiFixed Assets Investment by Sector and % of ManufacturingFonte / Source:Ashvin Auhia , Mahlar Nabar, Investment-led Growth in China: Global Spillovers, IMF WP 12/267
  12. 12. 12Chart 6 - Bis: Capacita’ Produttiva manifatturiera - Veicoli LeggeriProduction Capacity Build Up in Manufacturing - Light VehiclesFonte / Source: Financial Times, 1st January 2013Car production in China in 2013 is likely to be 10 times higher than in 2000 – when its share ofglobal auto manufacturing was just 3.5 per cent as opposed to a likely 23.8 per cent in 2013.Scott Corwin, an automotive expert at the Booz & Co consultancy, said that even with relativelystrong growth projected in vehicle output and demand in both the US and China, “these marketsalone won’t do much to pull the whole world forward”.
  13. 13. 13Chart 7: Composizione delle Importazioni per ProdottoImport Composition by ProductFonte / Source:Ashvin Auhia , Mahlar Nabar, Investment-led Growth in China: Global Spillovers, IMF WP 12/267
  14. 14. 14Chart 8: Economie più Intergrate Commercialmente con l’Industria CineseEconomies with Highest Trade Integration with ChinaFonte / Source:Ashvin Auhia , Mahlar Nabar, Investment-led Growth in China: Global Spillovers, IMF WP 12/267
  15. 15. 15Chart 9: Capacità Utilizzata Media dell’Economia Cinese - Stime IMFChinese Economy Average Capacity Utilization – IMF Estim.Fonte / Source: IMF Country Report No. 12/ 195 – PRC– 2012 Article IV Consultation
  16. 16. 16Chart 10: Popolazione Attiva per Età - Rapporto Capitale ProdottoActive Population by Age Groups – Incremental Capital-Output RatioFonte / Source: Wall Street Journal: China Real Time - Data Base
  17. 17. 17Chart 11: Crescita Salariale, CLUPI e Margini nel ManifatturieroWage Growth, Unit Labor Cost and Industrial Profit MarginsFonte / Source: IMF Country Report No. 12/ 195 – PRC– 2012 Article IV Consultation
  18. 18. 18Chart 12: Occupazione per Settore e UrbanizzazioneEmployment by Sector and Urbanization RateFonte / Source: IMF Country Report No. 12/ 195 – PRC– 2012 Article IV Consultation
  19. 19. 19Chart 13: Stima del “Punto di Svolta di Lewis”– i.e., Azzeramento dell’Attuale Eccesso di Offerta sul Mercato del LavoroEstimated “Lewis Turning Point”– i.e., Elimination of the Current Surplus in the Labor MarketFonte / Source: IMF Country Report No. 12/ 195 – PRC– 2012 Article IV Consultation
  20. 20. 20Chart 14: Divari nei Salari Reali in Alcune Provincie CinesiReal Wage Dispersion Across ProvincesFonte / Source: IMF Country Report No. 12/ 195 – PRC– 2012 Article IV Consultation
  21. 21. 21Chart 15: Risparmio per Settore, Reddito Disponibile e InvestimentiSaving by Sector, Disposable Income, InvestmentFonte / Source: G20 - PRC Sustainability Report 2011
  22. 22. 22Chart 16: Reddito Disponibile e Consumi delle Famiglie, InvestimentiHousehold Disposable Income & Consumption, InvestmentFonte / Source: Wall Street Journal: China Real Time - Data Base
  23. 23. 23Chart 17: Spesa Sociale per Istruzione, Tasso Reale sui DepositiPublic Spending on Education, Real Interest Rate on DepositsFonte / Source: Wall Street Journal: China Real Time - Data Base
  24. 24. 24Chart 18: Dinamica dei Depositi Presso il Sistema BancarioDynamics of Bank DepositsFonte / Source: IMF-World Bank, Financial Sector Assessment 2011
  25. 25. 25Chart 19:Peso delle Importazioni Cinesi di Commodities sul CommercioMondiale; Consumi Pro-capite di Energia e Metalli;China’s Share of Global Commodity Trade; Per-capita Consumption ofEnergy and MetalsFonte / Source: Shaun K.Roche, China’s Impact on World Commodities; IMF WP 12/115, March 2012
  26. 26. 26Chart 20: Le Ragioni di Scambio della Cina e Confronti InternazionaliChina Terms of Trade and International ComparisonsFonte / Source: Shaun K.Roche, China’s Impact on World Commodities; IMF WP 12/115, March 2012Fonte / Source: Asfid Ahuja et Al., An End to China Imbalances?, IMF WP 12/100, April 2012;IMF, People Republic of China, 2012 Article IV Consultation, Co. Report No. 12/195–July 2012
  27. 27. 27Chart 21:Confronti Internazionali dei Prezzi di Carburanti e AcquaWater and Gas Prices – International ComparisonsFonte / Source: Asfid Ahuja et Al., An End to China Imbalances?, IMF WP 12/100, April 2012;IMF, People Republic of China, 2012 Article IV Consultation, Co. Report No. 12/195–July 2012
  28. 28. 28Chart 22-A: Motori della Crescita Cinese / Engines of Chinese GrowthFonte / Source: Fan Zhigang, ICBC, Urban Finance Research Center, 2012
  29. 29. 29Chart 22-B: Confronti Internazionali di Sentieri di Crescita “Trappola del RedditoMedio”/ Comparative Growth Paths & “Middle Income Trap”
  30. 30. 30ABCDEChart 22-C: Ipotesi Neo-Strutturalista sulla Crescita/The “Neo Structuralist” Hypothesis on GrowthWhat a country manufactures matters for its growth. Both diversity and sophistication in industryare drivers of faster growth. Each group of countries follows a “transition path”A: Slow-growing low-and-middle-income countries:Production intensities narrowed towards the low to mid-range ofproduct sophistication, as they exited sectors of highsophistication.B: Fast-growing low-income countries diversified theirmanufacturing base and raised their level of productsophistication, increasing production intensity in both low- andhigh-sophistication products.C: Slow-growing middle income countries lagged behindtheir more successful middle-income rivals in such sectors asmachinery and electrical machinery.D: Fast growing middle income countries shifted strongly inthe direction of more sophisticated products and reduced theirproduction intensity of lower-sophistication products to aboutthe world average. At the same time, they increased theintensity of production of highly sophisticated goods toabout 60 per cent of the global average, driven by asubstantial increase in the intensity of machineryproduction. They also maintained a strong orientation towardsproduction of electrical machinery.Fonte / Source: UNIDO - Industrial Development Report 2009, Breaking In and Moving Up: NewIndustrial Challenges for the Bottom Billion and the Middle-Income Countries
  31. 31. 31ABCDChart 22-D: Le Imprese Cinesi piu’ vicine alla Frontiera dell’InnovazioneChinese Companies are Approaching the Innovation FrontierThe number of domestic patent filings in China increased at an annual rate of 35% from 1999 to2006. A new dataset of 20,000 Chinese manufacturing firms shows that the explosion has beenignited by the ICT equipment sector. Thus,there is no evidence of a wider technological take-offamong Chinese companies, which is confined to a limited range of industries and even within theseindustries is undertaken by very few, albeit highly active, firms.The analysis of the patenting decision and the patentproductivity of Chinese firms reveals thatfirms patenting both in China and the US, which accountfor the overwhelming share of both SIPO and USPTOfilings by companies registered in China;Firms are very large, relatively young, more R&D-intensivethan their peers, and strongly (but not exclusively) export-oriented – in short, true global players.A substantial share of patents covers product innovationalbeit of relatively low-tech character. Process innovationsand combinations of product and process innovationcovered by patents held by these companies appear to betechnologically more innovative and potentially valuable.Hence, these few, patent-active companies are (at least tosome extent) innovative companies highly integrated intothe global economy.Fonte / Source: Zhihong Yu , Markus Eberhardt, Christian Helmers, Is the dragon learning to fly? An analysis of theChinese patent explosion, 27 September 2011 http://www.voxeu.org/article/china-imitator-innovator
  32. 32. 32Chart 23: Architettura del Sistema Finanziario / Financial System ArchtectureFonte:/ Source: IMF-World Bank, Financial Sector Assessment 2011
  33. 33. 33Chart 24: Riforme del Sistema Finanziario al 2010 / Financial Reform up to 2010Fonte:/ Source: IMF-World Bank, Financial Sector Assessment 2011
  34. 34. 34Chart 25: Tassi di Interesse Bancari e Inflazione (2005-2012)Bank Interest Rates and Inflation (2005-2012)Fonte / Source: Bert Gochet, JPMorgan-Chase
  35. 35. 35Chart 26: Margini di Profitto Minimi e Distribuzione dei Tassi sui PrestitiBank Interest Margin and Distribution of Effective Lending RatesFonte / Source: A.Garcia-Herrero, D.Santabarbara, Is China’s Banking Sector Promoting its EconomicDevelopment: An Assessment of an Unorthodox Banking Reform, Paper presented at the Workshop on ChinaFinancial Market & RMB Internationalization, Helsinki, 17-18 Sept. 2012
  36. 36. 36Chart 27: Struttura Attività Finanziarie Totali – Confronti InternazionaliTotal Financial Assets Composition – International ComparisonsFonte / Source: IMF-World Bank, Financial Sector Assessment 2011; Maziad, J. Shik Kang, The RMBInternationalization, Onshore / Offshore Linkages,IMF WP 12/133, May 2012
  37. 37. 37Chart 28: Flussi di Credito all’Economia - 2005-2012Credit Flows to the Economy – 2005-2012A.Garcia-Herrero, D.Santabarbara, Is China’s Banking Sector Promoting its Economic Development: An Assessment ofan Unorthodox Banking Reform, Paper presented at the Workshop on China Financial Market & RMB Internationalization,Helsinki, 17-18 Sept. 2012Fonte / Source: IMF, People’s Republic of China, ART.IV Consultations, July 2012;
  38. 38. 38Chart 29: Tassi di Riferimento e Tassi Medi sui Prestiti BancariBenchmark and Average Bank Lending RatesFonte / Source: IMF, People’s Republic of China, ART.IV Consultations, July 2012;
  39. 39. 39Box 1: La Riforma 2012 dei Tassi di Interesse / 2012 Interest Rate ReformFonte / Source: IMF, People’s Republic of China, ART.IV Consultations, July 2012;
  40. 40. 40Chart 30-A: Il Mercato Wholesale Banking / The Wholesale Banking MarketFonte / Source: Oliver Wyman, The Growth-Profitability Conundrum in Chinese Wholesale Banking, Marsh-McLennan Co.,2012
  41. 41. 41Chart 30-B: Il Mercato Wholesale Banking / The Wholesale Banking MarketFonte / Source: Oliver Wyman, The Growth-Profitability Conundrum in Chinese Wholesale Banking, Marsh-McLennan Co., 2012
  42. 42. 42Chart 31: Gli Investimenti Esteri nel Sistema Finanziario CineseForeign Direct Investment into the Chinese Financial SectorFonte / Source: A.Garcia-Herrero, D.Santabarbara, Is China’s Banking Sector Promoting its Economic Development: AnAssessment of an Unorthodox Banking Reform, Paper presented at the Workshop on China Financial Market & RMBInternationalization, Helsinki, 17-18 Sept. 2012
  43. 43. 43Chart 31 – Bis : Le Banche Estere sono il 2% degli Assets del SettoreForeign Banks are 2% of the Banking Sector AssetsForeign banks have long targeted China as a key market for future growth, but theyare still niche players, accounting for less than 2% of the banking sectors totalassets, according to a KPMG ReportFonte / Source: The Wall Street Journal, 26-Sep-12
  44. 44. 44Chart 32:Indicatori Finanziari del Sistema Banca / Selected Banking IndicatorsFonte / Source:: IMF, People’s Republic of China, ART.IV Consultations, July 2012;IMF-World Bank, Financial Sector Assessment 2011
  45. 45. 45Chart 32 Bis: Attività Estere del Sistema Bancario CineseForeign Assets of Chinese BanksThe Value of Overseas Assets and Pretax Profits show that the “BigFour banks” remain firmly dependent on their home operations.Fonte / Source: The Wall Street Journal / China Scope Financial , 27-Nov.12Note: At the Exchange rate of 6.13 RMB per US$, 1 Trillion of RMB Assets = 163 Million US$
  46. 46. 46Chart 33:Emissione di Obbligazioni Imprese Non-Finanziarie e Crescita Creditoall’Economia / Issuance of Non-Financial Corporate Debt and Growth of TotalCredit ComponentsFonte / Source: IMF, Global Financial Stability Report, October 2012
  47. 47. 47Chart 34:Finanziamenti del Sistema Bancario Ombra e Trusts CinesiShadow Banking Finance: Trust Loans, Bonds, and AUMFonte / Source: The Wall Street Journal, November 10-11, 2012 China Private Funds Bolster LocalGovernment Projects, Raise Risks; and November 27, 2012, “China: Hidden Risks of Shadow Finance;
  48. 48. 48Chart 35-A:Il Sistema Bancario Ombra – Confronti InternazionaliThe Shadow Banking System – International ComparisonsFonte / Source: FSB, Financial Stability Board: Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report, 2012
  49. 49. 49Chart 35-B:Il Sistema Bancario Ombra: Crescita di Altri IntermediariThe Shadow Banking System: Growth of Other Fin. IntermediariesFonte / Source: FSB, Financial Stability Board: Global Shadow Banking Monitoring Report, 2012
  50. 50. 50Chart 36:Funzioni di una Moneta di RiservaDimensions of an International CurrencyFonte/ Source: Yu Yongding, Revisiting the Internationalization of the Yuan, Asian Development Bank Institute,Working Paper 366, 2012
  51. 51. 51Chart 37:Transazioni di Conto Corrente Regolate in RMBCross-Border Trade Settled in RMBFonte/ Source: Shamar Maziad, J. Shik Kang, The RMB Internationalization, Onshore Offshore Linkages, WP 12/133, May 2012 ;Yu Yongding, Revisiting the Internationalization of the Yuan, Asian Development Bank Institute, Working Paper 366, 2012
  52. 52. 52Chart 37-Bis: Linee di Credito in RMB (CNY) fra Banche Centrali e la PBOC finoal 1 Trim 2012/ Swop Lines in RMB (CNY) between the Peoples Bank of Chinaand Other Central Banks up to the 1st Quarter 2012Fonte/ Source: Euromeoney, Renminbi-convergence-Is-it-inevitable-and-what-are-the-risks? May 2012;
  53. 53. 53Chart 38:Regolazione di Pagamenti di Importazioni Cinesi via Hong KongRMB Settlement of Import of Goods from China via Hong KongFonte/ Source:Yu Yongding, Revisiting the Internationalization of the Yuan, Asian Development Bank Institute, Working Paper 366, 2012
  54. 54. 54Chart 39:Tasso RMB/US$ Onshore (CNY), Offshore (CNH)RMB-US$ Exchange Rates Onshore (CNY) and Offshore (CNH)Fonte/ Source:Yu Yongding, Revisiting the Internationalization of the Yuan, Asian Development Bank Institute, Working Paper 366, 2012
  55. 55. 55Chart 40: Rivalutazione del RMB Implicita sul Mercato Onshore e Offshore (Non-Deliverable Forward – NDF) / Implied 1-Year Appreciation of the RMB onOnshore and Offshore Markets (NDF)Fonte / Source: IMF, People’s Republic of China, Art..IV Consultation, July 2012
  56. 56. 56Chart 41:Dim Bond - Emissioni di Titoli in RMB (CNH) e Curva dei Rendimenti deiTitoli del Debito Cinese Onshore (CNY) e Offshore (CNH) / Dim Bond Issuance ofRMB Bonds, Government Bond Yield Onshore (CNY) & Offshore (CNH)Fonte / Source: Shamar Maziad, J. Shik Kang, The RMB Internationalization, Onshore Offshore Linkages, WP 12/133, May 2012
  57. 57. 57Chart 41-Bis: Mercato Offshore Hong Kong in RMB (CNH) /Hong Kong Offshore Market in RMB (CNH)Fonte/ Source: Euromeoney, Renminbi-convergence-Is-it-inevitable-and-what-are-the-risks? May 2012;
  58. 58. 58Chart 42:“Banda di Fluttuazione” allargata, Parità Centrale e Tassi di CambioRMB/US$ - Aprile-Giugno 2012 / Widened “Fluctuation Band”,Central Parity and Closing Exchange Rate RMB-US$Fonte / Source: IMF, People’s Republic of China, Art.IV Consultation, July 2012
  59. 59. 59Chart 43:Cambio RMB/US$ e Tasso Nominale Effettivo del RMB verso le altrevalute (NEER) / Bilateral RMB/US$ Rate and Nominal Effective Exchange Rate ofRMB (NEER)Fonte / Source: IMF, People’s Republic of China, Art.IV Consultation, July 2012
  60. 60. 60Chart 44 :Tassi di Cambio RMB rispetto alle principali valute 1994-2012 /Bilateral Exchange rate of RMB vis-a-vis the Main Currencies 1994-2012Legenda: Indice espresso in unità di RMB per valuta indicata, quindi l’abbassamento(aumento) della linea denota deprezzamento (apprezzamento) della valuta indicate rispettoal RMBFonte / Source: Oksanen, H. (2012), Re-pegging the Renminbi to a basket: issues and implications. Asian-PacificEconomic Literature, 26: 18–33. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-8411.2012.01332.x
  61. 61. 61Chart 45: Movimenti di Capitali a Breve e Differenziale Tassi di Interesse /Hot Money Capital Flows and Interest Rate DifferentialsFonte / Source : Goldman Sachs, Economics Research, Asia Economics Flash, China, “Cooling off:The drivers and implications of CNY hot money outflows”, October 8, 2012
  62. 62. 62Chart 46: Variazione Fondi in Valuta nel Bilancio della Banca Centrale e delleBanche ( i.e., Interventi sul Mercato dei Cambi) / Variations in FX Funds Held bythe Central Bank and Commercial Banks (i.e., Interventions in the FX Market)Fonte / Source: China International Capital Corporation Ltd. (CICC), China Economy Research, November6th, 2012
  63. 63. 63Chart 47:Cambio RMB-US$ nel 2012 / Exchange Rate RMB-US$ in 2012Fonte / Source: China International Capital Corporation Ltd. (CICC), China Economy Research,November 6th, 2012Legenda: Indice espresso in US$ per unità di RMB,quindi l’abbassamento (aumento) della linea denotadeprezzamento (apprezzamento) del RMB rispetto al US$
  64. 64. 64Chart 48: Misure di Apertura del Conto Capitale e “Triangolo Impossibile”/ Measures to Open the capital Account; the “Impossible Trinity”Fonte / Source: ICBC, Urban Finance Research Center,Fan Zhigang, Conference Presentation, Rome,November 20th, 2012;Fonte / Source: JPMorgan-Chase, BertGochet, Conference Presentation, Rome,November 20th, 2012
  65. 65. 65Chart 49:Portafoglio di China Investment Corporation 2011 /Investment Portfolio of CIC 2011Fonte / Source: China Investment Corporation, Annual Report 2011
  66. 66. 66Chart 49–Bis: Investmenti Cinesi di SOEs e Privati in USA /Investment Flows of Chinese SOEs and Private Investors into the USAFonte / Source: The Wall Street Journal, Chinas Investments Prompt Call for New Rules, Jan 7th 2013
  67. 67. 67Chart 50: Indice degli Investimenti Cinesi Verso l’Estero (ODI)Index of Chinese Direct Investment Abroad (ODI)Fonte / Source: A CAPITAL, Andre Loesekrug-Pietri,The Dragon Index, November 2012;
  68. 68. 68Tav. 50-Bis: Tuttavia, I dati mostrano una riduzione di ODI Cinesenell’Area Euro / However Chinese FDI outflows to the Euro Area show adecline in 2012Fonte / Source: Mark Thompson fDiMagazine, December 14, 2012According to greenfield investment monitor fDi Markets, there have been 244 Chinese FDIprojects recorded between January and October 2012, a significant decline from the sameperiod in 2011, when there were 349 projects.This means that, unless there is a substantial uptick in outward investment in the final twomonths of the year, 2012 will be Chinas worst year for outbound FDI since 2008, when 282projects were recorded.One possible reason for the decline is the crisis in Europe. Historically, Germany has been themain destination for Chinese FDI, accounting for 12% of all outgoing projects between January2003 and October 2012. In 2011, there were 80 Chinese investments in Germany, while in 2012so far there has been just 11 such investments.Investment in Hong Kong has increased in 2012, however, with twice the number of Chinese FDIprojects recorded in the city-state compared to 2011.Chinese FDI into the UK and the US has remained relatively stable compared to the previousyear.
  69. 69. 69Chart 51: Composizione Investimenti Cinesi verso l’Estero - 2012Composition of Chinese Outward Direct Investment (ODI)- 2012Fonte / Source: A CAPITAL, Andre Loesekrug-Pietri,The Dragon Index, November 2012;
  70. 70. 70Chart 52: Opportunità di Investimento in RMB per Non-Residenti /Investment Opportunities in RMB for Foreign Corporates & InvestorsFonte / Source: JPMorgan-Chase, Bert Gochet, Conference Presentation, Rome, November 20th, 2012
  71. 71. 71
  72. 72. 72
  73. 73. 73A
  74. 74. 74B
  75. 75. 75A
  76. 76. 76B
  77. 77. 77C

×