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Land
Robert Zomer, Antonio Trabucco, Jianchu Xu, Mingcheng Wang
Frank Place, Rick Coe, Henry Neufeldt, Deborah Bossio,
Mie...
How much agroforestry is there?
Where is it?
Agroforestry is Globally Important
• Increasingly cited in sustainable development, adaptation
and mitigation strategies a...
Issue: What is agroforestry
Landuse Category
• Many definitions of AF,
– systems, typologies, technologies
• Many types of...
Agroforestry defined as
trees in agricultural landscapes
Use remote sensed estimates of:
• Location of agricultural land
–...
The 1 km x 1 km scale of analysis
Example – a few
km from here.
- classified as
‘agricultural’
-  10% tree cover
-  400 ...
Disclaimers and
Sources of Uncertainity
• A global analysis showing large scale patterns,
not predictions of specific loca...
Agricultural land and tree cover
0
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 5...
Agricultural land and tree cover
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
5
10
15
20
0 20 40 60 80 100
%agriculuralarea
cumulativearea(millionk...
Tree cover varies by region
0
20
40
60
80
100
0 20 40 60 80 100
cumulative%agricland
% tree cover
Central America
South Am...
People in agric land with tree cover
0
20
40
60
80
100
0
300
600
900
1200
1500
1800
0 20 40 60 80 100
%population
cumulati...
Global pattern of trees and people in
agricultural land
1.Every combination of
+/- tree cover and +/- population
occurs
2....
Aridity is a biophysical determinant
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Averagetreecover(%)
Aridity Wetness Index
Central Amer...
Tree cover on agricultural land in
sub-saharan Africa varies
Feasible tree cover = observed on top 20%
of land with that population and climate
Difference = observed - feasible
Key messages - 2009
• Tree cover is a common feature on agricultural land
– Must be recognized by all involved in agricult...
• Improved Data
– 250 m MODIS
– Improved accuracy
• Temporal Analysis
– Annual Data
– 2000 to 2010
• Change Analysis
– Avg...
Change in Amount of Agricultural
Area with Tree Cover
From 2000 to 2010
• Globally, percent of land under at
least 10% tre...
Change in Population of
Agricultural Area with Tree Cover
From 2000 to 2010
• Globally, percent of population
under at lea...
Above and Below Ground
Biomass Carbon on Agricultural Land
Estimating The Contribution of Agroforestry to
Global, Regional...
Above and Below Ground
Biomass Carbon on Agricultural Land
Adding the missing trees !!
Combine Tree Cover Analysis with
th...
Total Global Biomass Carbon on Agricultural Land
• IPCC Default Value: 11.08 PgC
• 2000 : 45.30 PgC 2010 : 47.37 PgC Incre...
Biomass Carbon on Agricultural Land
Total Biomass Carbon Average Biomass Carbon
Total Agricultural
Area (km2)
Pg C Increas...
Above and Below Ground
Biomass Carbon on Agricultural Land
The Contribution of
Agroforestry to
National Carbon Accounting
...
• Brazil increasing by 14%
• Argentina’s stocks showed
the largest total decline
decreasing 20%, (0.18 PgC)
• On a per hec...
• Hot spot of of biomass
carbon loss along NW
coast of Myanmar
• Decreases southern
Vietnam, central Laos,
northeast Thail...
• Hot spots of of biomass
carbon loss in West Africa
• Sierra Leone - 25% decrease
• Guinea – 14% decrease
• Cameroon – 7%...
Above and Below Ground Biomass Carbon on Agricultural Land
The Contribution of Agroforestry to National Carbon Accounting
...
• Approximately 43% of agricultural land in 2010 had >10% tree cover
• Nearly one-billion hectares supporting more than 90...
http://www.worldagroforestry.org/global-tree-cover/
Global Tree Cover and Biomass Carbon on Agricultural Land Website
Than...
Trees on Farm: Global Extent and Socio-Ecological Characteristics and the Contribution of Agroforestry to Global and Natio...
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Trees on Farm: Global Extent and Socio-Ecological Characteristics and the Contribution of Agroforestry to Global and National Carbon Budgets

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Presentation given by Robert Zomer at ICRAF’s Science Week, 5-9 September 2016 in Nairobi. During Science Week, researchers with the World Agroforestry Centre also discussed their work under the CGIAR Research Program on Forests, Trees and Agroforestry.

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Trees on Farm: Global Extent and Socio-Ecological Characteristics and the Contribution of Agroforestry to Global and National Carbon Budgets

  1. 1. Land Robert Zomer, Antonio Trabucco, Jianchu Xu, Mingcheng Wang Frank Place, Rick Coe, Henry Neufeldt, Deborah Bossio, Miene van Noordwyk, Antje Ahrends Center for Mountain Ecosystem Studies Kunming Insitute of Botany / World Agroforestry Centre – East and Central Asia Region Kunming, Yunnan Province, China r.zomer@cgiar.org Sept 5, 2016 ICRAF Science Week Nairobi, Kenya Global Tree Cover and Biomass Carbon on Agricultural Land: Trees on Farm: Global Extent and Socio-Ecological Characteristics and the Contribution of Agroforestry to Global and National Carbon Budgets
  2. 2. How much agroforestry is there? Where is it?
  3. 3. Agroforestry is Globally Important • Increasingly cited in sustainable development, adaptation and mitigation strategies and policies, in all regions, biomes • Estimates needed to ensure realistic policy attention “During preparation of the IAAST report, USA referees said that everyone knew there were only 50,000 ha of agroforestry in the world and that they were a failure” • Global estimates based on expert opinion “…we propose that 20% of the arable and permanent cropped area and 15% of the pasture lands in the world is under silvopastoral combination…” Nair , Kumar and Nair (2009)
  4. 4. Issue: What is agroforestry Landuse Category • Many definitions of AF, – systems, typologies, technologies • Many types of AF systems – spatial and temporal scales • Plot to landscape, • Short-rotations to historic • Cropping - Livestock Based Key mapping problem: • Not easily categorized or classified within traditional agriculture / forestry typologies, as used in remote sensing and landuse mapping • Small holder farming systems are not easily mapped using RS The result: Partial area estimates for some systems
  5. 5. Agroforestry defined as trees in agricultural landscapes Use remote sensed estimates of: • Location of agricultural land – GLC 2000 Dataset – 1 km resolution – Year: 2000 • Tree cover % – VCF - Hanson et al 2003 – 500m MODIS data – Year: 2000 Add: • Population Density • (CIESIN 2004) – GRUMP v1 • Bioclimate – Aridity Wetness Index • (Zomer et al 2007)
  6. 6. The 1 km x 1 km scale of analysis Example – a few km from here. - classified as ‘agricultural’ -  10% tree cover -  400 people One observation in the global database of 22 million 1 km 1 km Statistical analysis: counting pixels in different categories
  7. 7. Disclaimers and Sources of Uncertainity • A global analysis showing large scale patterns, not predictions of specific localities. – Base layers are imperfect • Uncertainity associated with remote sensing data – No info on configuration of trees and agric land in each pixel – No info on population interaction with the land and trees – Estimates of tree crown cover only, not of number of trees • Land not classified as ‘Agricultural’ is excluded – Tree crops – Agroforests
  8. 8. Agricultural land and tree cover 0 500000 1000000 1500000 2000000 2500000 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 areaofagricland(km2) % tree cover
  9. 9. Agricultural land and tree cover 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 5 10 15 20 0 20 40 60 80 100 %agriculuralarea cumulativearea(millionkm2) tree cover % 46% of global agric land (gal) = 10.1 Million km2 has more than 10% tree cover 46% gal (10.1 M km2) has > 10% tree cover 27% gal ( 6.0 M km2) has > 20% tree cover 18% gal ( 3.9 M km2) has > 30% tree cover 8% gal ( 1.7 M km2) has > 50% tree cover
  10. 10. Tree cover varies by region 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 cumulative%agricland % tree cover Central America South America East Asia South Asia SouthEast Asia Sub-Saharan Africa
  11. 11. People in agric land with tree cover 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 300 600 900 1200 1500 1800 0 20 40 60 80 100 %population cumulativepopulation(millions) Tree cover % Of 1.8 billion people in agric land… 31% (558 M) have > 10% tree cover 18% (330 M) have > 20% tree cover 10% (187 M) have > 30% tree cover
  12. 12. Global pattern of trees and people in agricultural land 1.Every combination of +/- tree cover and +/- population occurs 2. There are large scale patterns
  13. 13. Aridity is a biophysical determinant 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 Averagetreecover(%) Aridity Wetness Index Central America South America Africa South Asia East Asia SouthEast Asia Global dry wet
  14. 14. Tree cover on agricultural land in sub-saharan Africa varies
  15. 15. Feasible tree cover = observed on top 20% of land with that population and climate
  16. 16. Difference = observed - feasible
  17. 17. Key messages - 2009 • Tree cover is a common feature on agricultural land – Must be recognized by all involved in agricultural production, planning and policy development. • There is large variation at every scale from continental to 1 km2 • Tree cover increases with humidity – but with many exceptions. • There is no general tradeoff in agricultural landscapes between people and trees. • Large scale tree cover patterns cannot be fully explained by humidity, population density or region
  18. 18. • Improved Data – 250 m MODIS – Improved accuracy • Temporal Analysis – Annual Data – 2000 to 2010 • Change Analysis – Avg 2000-2002 – Avg 2008-2010 • Global estimate of land under at least 10% tree cover in 2000 revised to 40% from 46% Update and Re-analysis - 2014
  19. 19. Change in Amount of Agricultural Area with Tree Cover From 2000 to 2010 • Globally, percent of land under at least 10% tree cover increased from 40% to 43%, > 1 billion ha • Almost all regions increased the amount of land with at least 10% tree cover • South America showed the largest increase • Only North and Central Asia decreased area • South Asia increased from 21% to 28%, East Asia from 43% to 48% • Central America increased to 96% of all agricultural land with at least 10% tree cover
  20. 20. Change in Population of Agricultural Area with Tree Cover From 2000 to 2010 • Globally, percent of population under at least 10% tree cover increased from 41% to 46%, increasing by 90 million, to more than 900 million persons • Almost all regions increased the population living with at least 10% tree cover • South Asia showed the largest increase, 44 million more people, to 34% of all persons in ag area • Only North and Central Asia decreased population • Central America increased to 95% of all population in agricultural
  21. 21. Above and Below Ground Biomass Carbon on Agricultural Land Estimating The Contribution of Agroforestry to Global, Regional, and National Carbon Accounting • IPCC Tier-1 Global Biomass Carbon Map • Ruesch and Gibbs (2008) • World stratified into 124 carbon zones by eco- floristic/ bio-climatic region • Each landuse type in the GLC2000 dataset (which we also used), within each carbon zone, has a carbon estimate specific for that landuse within that carbon zone • However, globally, all agricultural land was estimated with one relatively low value of 5 tC / ha • Tree cover (agroforestry) component missing from this map, and from global and national carbon budgets and carbon accounting generally
  22. 22. Above and Below Ground Biomass Carbon on Agricultural Land Adding the missing trees !! Combine Tree Cover Analysis with the CDIAC Biomass Carbon Map Assumptions: • If agric. land had 0% tree cover, then: biomass = 5 tC/ha • (IPCC Tier-1 default value) • If agric. land had 100% tree cover, then: • biomass = mixed forest type • Biomass carbon increases linearly from 0 to 100 % tree cover • i.e., from 5 tC/ha to value of mixed forest
  23. 23. Total Global Biomass Carbon on Agricultural Land • IPCC Default Value: 11.08 PgC • 2000 : 45.30 PgC 2010 : 47.37 PgC Increase : 2.07 PgC • Increase of 4.6 % in total global biomass carbon on agricultural land Average Biomass Carbon on Agricultural Land • IPCC Default Value: 5 tC/ha • 2000 : 28.0 tC/ha 2010 : 29.0 tC/ha Increase : 0.95 tC/ha Above and Below Ground Biomass Carbon on Agricultural Land The Contribution of Agroforestry to Global, Regional, and National Carbon Accounting CO2 emissions from deforestation and other land-use change were 0.9±0.5 PgC on average during 2005-2014, accounting for about 9% of all emissions from human activity (fossil fuel, cement, land use change). Source: Carbon Project
  24. 24. Biomass Carbon on Agricultural Land Total Biomass Carbon Average Biomass Carbon Total Agricultural Area (km2) Pg C Increase as % of Total C t C / ha Region 2000 2010 Change 2000 2010 Change Australia/Pacific 2.11 2.28 0.17 8.06 26.7 28.9 2.2 790,658 Central America 1.42 1.52 0.09 6.45 52.9 56.3 3.4 269,235 Central Asia 0.48 0.47 0.00 -1.04 5.7 5.7 -0.1 830,949 East Asia 2.37 2.53 0.16 6.95 13.2 14.1 0.9 1,795,893 Eastern and Southern Africa 2.31 2.30 0.00 -0.17 14.7 14.6 -0.0 1,573,527 Europe 2.13 2.15 0.02 0.96 9.3 9.4 0.1 2,299,766 North Africa 0.11 0.11 0.00 -0.01 7.3 7.3 -0.0 155,948 North America 3.31 3.40 0.09 2.68 16.0 16.4 0.4 2,073,033 Russia 1.07 1.07 0.00 0.02 6.4 6.4 0.0 1,669,166 South America 11.34 12.13 0.79 6.95 29.2 31.2 2.0 3,888,792 South Asia 2.30 2.48 0.18 7.85 12.6 13.6 1.0 1,827,025 South East Asia 10.03 10.69 0.66 6.59 60.8 64.8 4.0 1,648,268 West and Central Africa 5.57 5.45 -0.12 -2.18 23.3 22.8 -0.5 2,390,980 Western Asia 0.75 0.79 0.04 4.72 7.9 8.2 0.4 955,689 Global 45.30 47.37 2.07 4.57 28.0 29.0 0.95 22,168,929 Agricultural Baseline 11.08 11.08 5.0 5.0 Contribution by Trees 34.22 36.29 2.07 4.57 23.03 23.97 0.95 Above and Below Ground Biomass Carbon on Agricultural Land The Contribution of Agroforestry to Global, Regional, and National Carbon Accounting
  25. 25. Above and Below Ground Biomass Carbon on Agricultural Land The Contribution of Agroforestry to National Carbon Accounting • Brazil, the greatest total amount, 6.8 PgC in 2000, increased by 14% to 7.7 PgC by 2010. • Indonesia (5.5 PgC) increased more than 9%. • 60 countries have < 10t C/ha • 26 countries have > 50t C/ha • Chile, New Zealand, Ghana, and Bangladesh’s stocks all showed increases near or in excess of 20%. • 23 countries declined more than 1%, • Sierra Leone (25%), Argentina (20%), Guinea (14%), and Myanmar (10%).
  26. 26. • Brazil increasing by 14% • Argentina’s stocks showed the largest total decline decreasing 20%, (0.18 PgC) • On a per hectare basis, Agentina’s decrease from 17.8 to 14.2 tC/ha represents a 3.6% decrease biomass carbon over nearly a half million km2 of agricultural land. • ”Hot spots” of biomass loss are evident along the coast of Ecuador, northeast Brazil Above and Below Ground Biomass Carbon on Agricultural Land The Contribution of Agroforestry to National Carbon Accounting
  27. 27. • Hot spot of of biomass carbon loss along NW coast of Myanmar • Decreases southern Vietnam, central Laos, northeast Thailand, parts of northern Malaysia, northern Vietnam • Increases in southern China, Thailand, Malaysia Above and Below Ground Biomass Carbon on Agricultural Land The Contribution of Agroforestry to National Carbon Accounting
  28. 28. • Hot spots of of biomass carbon loss in West Africa • Sierra Leone - 25% decrease • Guinea – 14% decrease • Cameroon – 7% decrease • Nigeria – 6% decrease • Tanzania – 16% decrease • Equatorial Guinea – 18% • Cote de Ivoire – 7% increase • Ghana – 23% increase • Madagascar – 24% increase Above and Below Ground Biomass Carbon on Agricultural Land The Contribution of Agroforestry to National Carbon Accounting
  29. 29. Above and Below Ground Biomass Carbon on Agricultural Land The Contribution of Agroforestry to National Carbon Accounting Increase in biomass carbon stock: Bangaldesh 20% - Indonesia 9 %– Malaysia 10 % - China 8% India 7%– Thailand 6% - Papua New Guinea 4%
  30. 30. • Approximately 43% of agricultural land in 2010 had >10% tree cover • Nearly one-billion hectares supporting more than 900 million persons • IPCC default value of 5t C/ha of biomass for agric land is a gross under-estimate • Off by a factor of 4 - 75% of biomass on agricultural land is tree-based • Agroforestry provides not just adaptation, but also mitigation benefits • Amount of carbon is significant, .. enough that it should be accounted for !!! • Current focus is on delivering the (I)NDCs, countries are looking for evidence/analyses, practical solutions and increased capacities to include, or not, tree-based solutions. • This type of analysis can provide a basis for targeting, guiding adaptation strategies and policy development. • Can provide insight to impact of enabling environments and national policy context • This is a rich set of spatial data available for understanding broad geographic patterns of agroforestry and the implications of national policy environments. Key messages - 2016
  31. 31. http://www.worldagroforestry.org/global-tree-cover/ Global Tree Cover and Biomass Carbon on Agricultural Land Website Thank You !! Robert Zomer r.zomer@cgiar.org

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