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The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers

   The Truth Behind
  National Foreclosure
        Numbers
          With Brad Geisen
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers




             Moderated by
             Stephen Chip
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers




          Brad Geisen
          Foreclosure.com Founder, President and CEO
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers




          Brad Geisen
          Foreclosure.com Founder, President and CEO
           • Successful real estate investor, broker,
             developer and entrepreneur for 24+ years
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


       Today’s Agenda
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


       Today’s Agenda
       • Explain data
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


       Today’s Agenda
       • Explain data
       • Foreclosure process
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


       Today’s Agenda
       • Explain data
       • Foreclosure process
       • Foreclosure stats
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


       Today’s Agenda
       • Explain data
       • Foreclosure process
       • Foreclosure stats
       • What we see happening
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


       Today’s Agenda
       • Explain data
       • Foreclosure process
       • Foreclosure stats
       • What we see happening
       • Credit Crisis or Credit Crunch?
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


      Data discrepancy
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


      Data discrepancy

    • Properties counted multiple times
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


      Data discrepancy

    • Properties counted multiple times
    • Bad or expired data
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


      Data discrepancy

    • Properties counted multiple times
    • Bad or expired data
    • Time period undefined
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


  Foreclosure Process
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


  Foreclosure Process

1. Preforeclosure
   (Notice of default, Lis Pendens - Sheriff/Trustee sale.)
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


  Foreclosure Process

1. Preforeclosure
   (Notice of default, Lis Pendens - Sheriff/Trustee sale.)

2. Foreclosure
   (Foreclosed and owned by lender, REO, Bank owned)
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


    Foreclosure Stats
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


    Foreclosure Stats
 Pre-foreclosures (Notice of default, Lis Pendens, Etc.)
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


    Foreclosure Stats
 Pre-foreclosures (Notice of default, Lis Pendens, Etc.)
 • New properties / monthly
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


    Foreclosure Stats
 Pre-foreclosures (Notice of default, Lis Pendens, Etc.)
 • New properties / monthly
 • Total inventory / monthly
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


    Foreclosure Stats
 Pre-foreclosures (Notice of default, Lis Pendens, Etc.)
 • New properties / monthly
 • Total inventory / monthly
 Foreclosures (Foreclosed and owned by lender, REO)
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


    Foreclosure Stats
 Pre-foreclosures (Notice of default, Lis Pendens, Etc.)
 • New properties / monthly
 • Total inventory / monthly
 Foreclosures (Foreclosed and owned by lender, REO)
 • New properties / monthly
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


    Foreclosure Stats
 Pre-foreclosures (Notice of default, Lis Pendens, Etc.)
 • New properties / monthly
 • Total inventory / monthly
 Foreclosures (Foreclosed and owned by lender, REO)
 • New properties / monthly
 • Total inventory / monthly
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers




                                  Source: Foreclosure.com
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers




                                  Source: Foreclosure.com
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers




                                  Source: Foreclosure.com
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers




                                  Source: Foreclosure.com
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers




                                  Source: Foreclosure.com
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers




                                  Source: Foreclosure.com
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers




                                  Source: Foreclosure.com
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers




                                  Source: Foreclosure.com
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers




                                  Source: Foreclosure.com
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers




                                  Source: Foreclosure.com
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association)
              March 6, 2008
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association)
                                March 6, 2008


• Currently 2.04% of all loans are in foreclosure process
 (Not every property in foreclosure goes through the entire process)
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association)
                                March 6, 2008


• Currently 2.04% of all loans are in foreclosure process
 (Not every property in foreclosure goes through the entire process)


• Currently less than 2% of all loans will be foreclosed
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association)
                                 March 6, 2008


• Currently 2.04% of all loans are in foreclosure process
  (Not every property in foreclosure goes through the entire process)


• Currently less than 2% of all loans will be foreclosed
• Banks estimate a 2% default rate (Industry standard)
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association)
                                 March 6, 2008


• Currently 2.04% of all loans are in foreclosure process
  (Not every property in foreclosure goes through the entire process)


• Currently less than 2% of all loans will be foreclosed
• Banks estimate a 2% default rate (Industry standard)
• Banks use 5% default rate as a reserve
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association)
                                 March 6, 2008


• Currently 2.04% of all loans are in foreclosure process
  (Not every property in foreclosure goes through the entire process)


• Currently less than 2% of all loans will be foreclosed
• Banks estimate a 2% default rate (Industry standard)
• Banks use 5% default rate as a reserve
• In 2007 the default rate was less than 1%
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


What we see happening
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


What we see happening
•10 years of appreciation in 5 years
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


What we see happening
•10 years of appreciation in 5 years
•TIME catches up to the VALUES
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


What we see happening
•10 years of appreciation in 5 years
•TIME catches up to the VALUES
•CORRECTION
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


         Then vs. now
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


         Then vs. now

   •What is the big difference from
    today vs. savings and loan crisis
    in the 80s?
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


       Prime rate chart




                    Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


   Unemployment chart




                   Source: United States Department of Labor - www.biz.gov/lau
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


           GNP chart




           Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis - www.bea.gov
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


  Subprime problems
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


  Subprime problems
• Foreign investment in sub-prime paper
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


  Subprime problems
• Foreign investment in sub-prime paper
• Banks had 10 years of profits
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


  Subprime problems
• Foreign investment in sub-prime paper
• Banks had 10 years of profits
• Term Security Lending Facility (TSLF)
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


  Subprime problems
• Foreign investment in sub-prime paper
• Banks had 10 years of profits
• Term Security Lending Facility (TSLF)
• Loss mitigation / Short sales / Loan workouts
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


    CREDIT CRISIS or
    CREDIT CRUNCH?
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


    CREDIT CRISIS or
    CREDIT CRUNCH?
     • Buy today at yesterday’s prices
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


    CREDIT CRISIS or
    CREDIT CRUNCH?
     • Buy today at yesterday’s prices
     • Money is cheap
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


    CREDIT CRISIS or
    CREDIT CRUNCH?
     • Buy today at yesterday’s prices
     • Money is cheap
     • Good economy
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers


    CREDIT CRISIS or
    CREDIT CRUNCH?
     • Buy today at yesterday’s prices
     • Money is cheap
     • Good economy
     • Elections are coming
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers




     CREDIT CRUNCH
The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers




         THANK YOU!

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The Truth Behind National Foreclosure Numbers

  • 1. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers The Truth Behind National Foreclosure Numbers With Brad Geisen
  • 2. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Moderated by Stephen Chip
  • 3. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Brad Geisen Foreclosure.com Founder, President and CEO
  • 4. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Brad Geisen Foreclosure.com Founder, President and CEO • Successful real estate investor, broker, developer and entrepreneur for 24+ years
  • 5. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Today’s Agenda
  • 6. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Today’s Agenda • Explain data
  • 7. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Today’s Agenda • Explain data • Foreclosure process
  • 8. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Today’s Agenda • Explain data • Foreclosure process • Foreclosure stats
  • 9. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Today’s Agenda • Explain data • Foreclosure process • Foreclosure stats • What we see happening
  • 10. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Today’s Agenda • Explain data • Foreclosure process • Foreclosure stats • What we see happening • Credit Crisis or Credit Crunch?
  • 11. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Data discrepancy
  • 12. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Data discrepancy • Properties counted multiple times
  • 13. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Data discrepancy • Properties counted multiple times • Bad or expired data
  • 14. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Data discrepancy • Properties counted multiple times • Bad or expired data • Time period undefined
  • 15. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Foreclosure Process
  • 16. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Foreclosure Process 1. Preforeclosure (Notice of default, Lis Pendens - Sheriff/Trustee sale.)
  • 17. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Foreclosure Process 1. Preforeclosure (Notice of default, Lis Pendens - Sheriff/Trustee sale.) 2. Foreclosure (Foreclosed and owned by lender, REO, Bank owned)
  • 18. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Foreclosure Stats
  • 19. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Foreclosure Stats Pre-foreclosures (Notice of default, Lis Pendens, Etc.)
  • 20. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Foreclosure Stats Pre-foreclosures (Notice of default, Lis Pendens, Etc.) • New properties / monthly
  • 21. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Foreclosure Stats Pre-foreclosures (Notice of default, Lis Pendens, Etc.) • New properties / monthly • Total inventory / monthly
  • 22. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Foreclosure Stats Pre-foreclosures (Notice of default, Lis Pendens, Etc.) • New properties / monthly • Total inventory / monthly Foreclosures (Foreclosed and owned by lender, REO)
  • 23. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Foreclosure Stats Pre-foreclosures (Notice of default, Lis Pendens, Etc.) • New properties / monthly • Total inventory / monthly Foreclosures (Foreclosed and owned by lender, REO) • New properties / monthly
  • 24. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Foreclosure Stats Pre-foreclosures (Notice of default, Lis Pendens, Etc.) • New properties / monthly • Total inventory / monthly Foreclosures (Foreclosed and owned by lender, REO) • New properties / monthly • Total inventory / monthly
  • 25. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Source: Foreclosure.com
  • 26. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Source: Foreclosure.com
  • 27. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Source: Foreclosure.com
  • 28. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Source: Foreclosure.com
  • 29. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Source: Foreclosure.com
  • 30. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Source: Foreclosure.com
  • 31. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Source: Foreclosure.com
  • 32. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Source: Foreclosure.com
  • 33. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Source: Foreclosure.com
  • 34. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Source: Foreclosure.com
  • 35. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) March 6, 2008
  • 36. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) March 6, 2008 • Currently 2.04% of all loans are in foreclosure process (Not every property in foreclosure goes through the entire process)
  • 37. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) March 6, 2008 • Currently 2.04% of all loans are in foreclosure process (Not every property in foreclosure goes through the entire process) • Currently less than 2% of all loans will be foreclosed
  • 38. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) March 6, 2008 • Currently 2.04% of all loans are in foreclosure process (Not every property in foreclosure goes through the entire process) • Currently less than 2% of all loans will be foreclosed • Banks estimate a 2% default rate (Industry standard)
  • 39. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) March 6, 2008 • Currently 2.04% of all loans are in foreclosure process (Not every property in foreclosure goes through the entire process) • Currently less than 2% of all loans will be foreclosed • Banks estimate a 2% default rate (Industry standard) • Banks use 5% default rate as a reserve
  • 40. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers MBA (Mortgage Bankers Association) March 6, 2008 • Currently 2.04% of all loans are in foreclosure process (Not every property in foreclosure goes through the entire process) • Currently less than 2% of all loans will be foreclosed • Banks estimate a 2% default rate (Industry standard) • Banks use 5% default rate as a reserve • In 2007 the default rate was less than 1%
  • 41. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers What we see happening
  • 42. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers What we see happening •10 years of appreciation in 5 years
  • 43. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers What we see happening •10 years of appreciation in 5 years •TIME catches up to the VALUES
  • 44. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers What we see happening •10 years of appreciation in 5 years •TIME catches up to the VALUES •CORRECTION
  • 45. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Then vs. now
  • 46. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Then vs. now •What is the big difference from today vs. savings and loan crisis in the 80s?
  • 47. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Prime rate chart Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
  • 48. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Unemployment chart Source: United States Department of Labor - www.biz.gov/lau
  • 49. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers GNP chart Source: U.S. Department of Commerce: Bureau of Economic Analysis - www.bea.gov
  • 50. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Subprime problems
  • 51. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Subprime problems • Foreign investment in sub-prime paper
  • 52. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Subprime problems • Foreign investment in sub-prime paper • Banks had 10 years of profits
  • 53. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Subprime problems • Foreign investment in sub-prime paper • Banks had 10 years of profits • Term Security Lending Facility (TSLF)
  • 54. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers Subprime problems • Foreign investment in sub-prime paper • Banks had 10 years of profits • Term Security Lending Facility (TSLF) • Loss mitigation / Short sales / Loan workouts
  • 55. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers CREDIT CRISIS or CREDIT CRUNCH?
  • 56. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers CREDIT CRISIS or CREDIT CRUNCH? • Buy today at yesterday’s prices
  • 57. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers CREDIT CRISIS or CREDIT CRUNCH? • Buy today at yesterday’s prices • Money is cheap
  • 58. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers CREDIT CRISIS or CREDIT CRUNCH? • Buy today at yesterday’s prices • Money is cheap • Good economy
  • 59. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers CREDIT CRISIS or CREDIT CRUNCH? • Buy today at yesterday’s prices • Money is cheap • Good economy • Elections are coming
  • 60. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers CREDIT CRUNCH
  • 61. The Truth Behind the Foreclosure Numbers THANK YOU!