Myanmar by volker friedrich market opportunity day


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Myanmar by volker friedrich at Finpro market opportunity day

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  • Certainly, the huge natural resources and wide business opportunities are there. Yet the cultural and communicative challenges are enormous. Good luck, perseverance and open-mind for those entering the market!
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Myanmar by volker friedrich market opportunity day

  1. 1. Market Opportunity Day Myanmar Presentation by: Volker Friedrich FINPRO Partner for Malaysia Helsinki, 9th May 2014
  2. 2. Welcome to the „Land of the Pagodas“ 2
  3. 3. Myanmar is suddenly on every agenda – but is it a new „Eldorado“ for business in Asia? Expectation Management is the key 3
  4. 4. Myanmar faces 'very difficult reforms' Associated Press, 23.04.2013 „If you can find ways to invest in Myanmar, you will be very, very rich over the next 20, 30, 40 years!“ Jim Rogers, 21.02.2012 Asian Development Bank says Myanmar economy poised for boom Associated Press, 11.04.2013 Myanmar in the news
  5. 5. “You should never let your fears prevent you from doing what you know is right.” Aung San Suu Kyi Burmese National League for Democracy 5 Myanmars „Lady“ is an icon already standing in line with Nelson Mandela and Martin Luther King – however locally she also faces criticism
  6. 6. 6 Myanmar – Facts and Figures • Borders with China, Thailand und India • ca. 60 Mio people • 85% Buddhist • Per capita GDP of ca. 850 US$ • Strategic importance of East West relations • Rich in natural resources of oil and gas, minerals, teak, gold and others • Reform process of unparalled speed • Member of ASEAN 1,500 US$ p.a. Myanmars reforms are one of the biggest surprises in recent history – welcomed and supported all around the world
  7. 7. 7 Myanmars needs time to fulfill all the (high) expectations – disappointments are for sure for local and international investors, shareholders and stakeholders alike
  8. 8. 8 Due to decades of sanctions European and American companies have to catch up now with the dominance of China, India and Russia who have stayed in Myanmar 8.27 5.39 2.94 3.4 China Hong Kong Thailand Others In billion dollars FDI (2011) – by countries Quelle: GBP Analyse Ol- and Gas is the most important sector
  9. 9. 9 The dramatic changes in Myanmar are unprecedented and can only be compared to the changesin Eastern Europe after the fall of the Berlin Wall
  10. 10. 10 International donor countries are now trying to help Myanmar and diplomatics and business relationships are set up – nothing happens over night though
  11. 11. , 11 The big question is whether the reforms are sustainable and if an attracive environment for FDIs can be built Challenges Opportunities • Average productivity of workers is 70pc lower than the average in ASEAN • Only 4 years of average schooling • Movement of 10 Mio people from rural areas to the city centers • Requirement of up to 650 billion US$ in foreign direct investment (thereof 50pc in infrastructure related projects) • By 2030 the GDP of Myanmar could reach 200 billion U$ (4 x GDP of 2012) • The consumer class could reach ca. 20 Mio people spending 100 billion US$ p.a. (today around 35 billion over 2.5 Mio people) • 10 Mio new job opportunities in non-agricultural areas • Reaching out to 500 Mio plus consumers in neighboring ASEAN markets Source – OECD, World Bank, McKinsey, GBP INTERNATIONAL Analysis 2013
  12. 12. GDP should grow 8% p.a. – target at ca. 200 bn US$ by 2030 0 20 40 60 80 Manufacturing Agriculture Infrastructure Eng. & Mining Tourism Financial Serv. Telecom 2030 2010 Structure of the Myanmar Economy Source – Data from OECD, World Bank, McKinsey, GBP INTERNATIONAL 2013 … but the potential is attractive if the necessary institutional reforms continue and investment flows into Myanmar will continue and increase over time
  13. 13. Welcome to Myanmar 13