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Fingrid Current: Three scenarios for the development of the power system. Jussi Jyrinsalo

  1. 1. Three scenarios for the development of the power system in the Baltic Sea region Fingrid Current 10 March 2020 Jussi Jyrinsalo @jyrinsalo #FingridCurrent
  2. 2. • Aiming for a clean, efficient and reliable system • Ensuring the applicability of European rules and methodologies to the Baltic Sea region by participating in their development • Collaboration on network planning provides insight into various alternatives for the future and the impacts of various alternatives → Also leads to better national choices • The key outcomes of collaboration are joint scenarios and network plans based on these scenarios – European, Baltic Sea region and Nordic level Regional collaboration is important
  3. 3. ENTSO-E scenario stories Many possible routes to the objectives National Trends (NT) National energy policy • Based on the national strategy, agreed EU targets • Bottom-up Distributed Energy (DE) European energy policy • Paris Agreement • Decentralised system • Top-down Global Ambition (GA) European energy policy • Paris Agreement • Centralised system • Top-down
  4. 4. What kind of electricity transmission needs will arise? A large amount of solar power, so the main direction of transfer is south-to-north. Significant transfers between Sweden and Finland. A large amount of offshore wind power, leading to transfers from Spain to the north and from the west to the south-east. Distributed Energy (DE) Global Ambition (GA)
  5. 5. What kind of electricity transmission needs will arise? 2025 2030 2040 Initially develops similarly to Global Ambition (a lot of offshore wind power), but the increasing volume of solar power causes transfers to even out to the middle-ground between the two top-down scenarios.
  6. 6. Baltic Sea region transmissions will increase
  7. 7. Baltic Sea region transmission connections are developed Transmission connections ensure that markets continue to function despite the challenge posed by wind power • Synchronising the Baltic countries • Closer link between the Nordic countries and Central Europe • North-to-south connections In use Under construction / decided Under consideration / planned
  8. 8. We are also seeking alternative solutions: • Making use of weather-dependent capacity of the transmission lines (Dynamic Line Rating) • Increasing the transmission capacity by improving the voltage support • Developing flexibility markets. In 2020, we will update our national scenarios, but still based on the regional scenarios: • We will study the development and geographical distribution of wind power and consumption (including sector coupling) in more detail • We will include stakeholders in the processes of creating scenarios and interpreting results • We will take the results into consideration in the main grid development plan for 2021 and begin preparing network reinforcements. Growths in wind power and consumption increase the need for transfers across borders and within the country CLEAR ADDITIONAL NEED NEED INCREASING IN THE 2030s
  9. 9. Fingrid Oyj Läkkisepäntie 21 FI-00620 Helsinki P.O.Box 530 FI-00101 Helsinki, Finland Tel. +358 30 395 5000 Fax. +358 30 395 5196

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Three scenarios for the development of the power system. Presentation by Jussi Jyrinsalo/Fingrid. Fingrid Current 10.3.2020. In English.


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