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Trading idea - short danone


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Trading idea - short danone

  1. 1. Trading Idea - Short Danone Thursday, September 27th 2012Company Description Investment Case H1 2012 reported consolidated sales growth of 7.7%, 5.9% LFL. As expected, Europe was the weakest geographical area (-0.1% LFL; trading operational margin decreased to 11.93% from 14.16%). Asia and Rest of the World showed strong performances, up 18.2% LFL and 11.7% LFL, respectively. Reflecting a lower profitability in South- ern Europe, H1 2012 trading operating margin decreased to 13.85% (-0.61bps). Adjusted EPS was €1.51.Market Price Data Ability to deliver above-average top-line and bottom-line growth52-week High (€) 54.96 could prove tougher to achieve given the more difficult macro envi-52-week Low (€) 44.375 ronment in Western Europe. Trading deterioration in SouthernLast Price (€) 49.255 Europe (white brands are an increasing threat), mainly Spain, contin-YTD Change 1.41% ues to be a great concern.Mkt Cap (€bn) 31.679 At their H1 2012 earnings report, Management maintained theirFloat 81.2% FY12 guidance, established at the time of last June´s profit warning.Source: Bloomberg Nonetheless, Danone’s Western Europe Fresh Dairy businesses could affect the group’s operational performance (sales and mar- gins) in the coming quarters.Analysts Recommendations: Danone announced that it will purchase two minority shareholders in Spain. This could cause some market concern, given the current weak outlook for that country. Danone is a company with attractive long-term growth prospects, and it trades at a discount to European food peers. But, after last June´s profit warning, the market will probably wait for increasedSource: Bloomberg visibility.Market Multiples Technical Comment P/E DY EPS CAGR Debt/Equity 2011/13 2013 Est. 2013 Est. Est 2012 Est. 14.61 3.24 8.02% 1.63Source: BloombergFinancial Highlights H1 2011 H1 2012Sales (€ mn) 9,728.00 10,475.00 Operating Margin % 14.47% 13.85% Trading OperatingIncome (€ mn) 1,407.47 1,450.88 Change % (YoY) 3.08%Source: Danones Half Year Report Fincor—Sociedade Corretora, S.A. provides services of reception, execution, and transmission of orders. The contents men-tioned in this document do not constitute (nor should they be interpreted as to form) any kind of counselling, or investment recommendation, or arecord of our trading prices, or an offer or solicitation to trade in any financial instrument. Fincor—Sociedade Corretora, S.A. Will not accept anyresponsibility resulting from any use referring to said content or about any resulting effect that could have occurred.