Pasi Vainikka (VTT) - Energiainvestoinnit ennen, nyt ja tulevaisuudessa 18022016

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Pasi Vainikan esitys energiajärjestelmän tulevaisuudesta. Smart Solar Growth -seminaari 18.2.2016

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Pasi Vainikka (VTT) - Energiainvestoinnit ennen, nyt ja tulevaisuudessa 18022016

  1. 1. …ENNEN, NYT JA TULEVAISUUDESSA 17.2.2016 Smart Energy Transition –seminaari, Aalto-yliopiston kauppakorkeakoulu Pasi Vainikka Johtava tutkija, VTT Dosentti, LUT
  2. 2. /TOPICS 1. COP21. What did we agree? 2. Energy and electricity 3. Architecture • Physical • Internet of energy 4. The energy market. Pricing. 5. Energy security & Warfare
  3. 3. What did we agree in Paris 2015? Country pledges for 2030
  4. 4. / THE OPTIONS FOR ENERGY SOURCES
  5. 5. NUCLEAR CCS RENEWABLES
  6. 6. / ARCHITECTURE
  7. 7. SOLAR AND WIND NEOCARBONISATION BRIDGING STORAGE
  8. 8. / LESSON #1: COMBUSTION IS HISTORY, ELECTRIFY EVERYTHING ENERGY MARKET = ELECTRICITY MARKET CONSUMPTION & PRODUCTION
  9. 9. / HOW DOES IT LOOK IN OPERATION
  10. 10. Source: Nordpool, 2012 Production follows consumption every second Finland, February 2012
  11. 11. Case: East Japan 2050 Source: Breyer, C., Bogdanov, D., 2014. North-East Asian Super Grid for 100% Renewable Energy power supply.
  12. 12. / IT’S THE INTERNET OF EVERYTHING, MAN
  13. 13. THE ENERGY CLOUD RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL POWER PLANT ONE-WAY POWER SYSTEM TRANSMISSION
  14. 14. / LESSON #2: A REAL TIME ELECTRICITY MARKET CAN BE ESTABLISHED SO REAL TIME, IT IS IN FACTA POWER MARKET
  15. 15. / EXAPLE OF PROGRESS
  16. 16. /DENMARKJULY2015 From hourly averages 2015 Q1-Q2: - Wind from consumption: ’ONLY’ 43% - For selected hours 140% from consumption - Capacity factor: 34%, 2940h - Installed capacity: 4900 MW
  17. 17. / LESSON #3: HOW THE PRICE IS FORMED? VALUE IS IN THE SERVICES END OF THE ’BRETTON WOODS OF ENERGY’
  18. 18. / ENERGY SECURITY
  19. 19. • It is a 80% fossil world
  20. 20. THE ENERGY CLOUD RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL POWER PLANT ONE-WAY POWER SYSTEM TRANSMISSION
  21. 21. / LESSON #4: ENERGY SECURITY GETS A NEW MEANING FROM PHYSICALASYMMETRY TO CYBER SECURITY
  22. 22. / DO WE KNOW HOW GOOD THE MARGINAL ENERGY ONLY MARKET IS IN CAPACITYADDITIONS?
  23. 23. Historical power generation capacity FIN+SWE+NOR 1950-1980
  24. 24. Capacity additions FIN+SWE+NOR
  25. 25. Capacity additions NOR
  26. 26. Capacity additions SWE
  27. 27. Capacity additions FIN
  28. 28. / LESSON #5: (CURRENT) MARKET BASED CAPACITY ADDITIONS DO NOT MAKE SENSE AND WE HAVE NOT EVEN DISCUSSED CONSUMPTION & STORAGE YET
  29. 29. http://www.hs.fi/paakirjoitukset/a1455255331872
  30. 30. /TOPICS 1. COP21. What did we agree? 2. Energy and electricity 3. Architecture • Physical • Internet of energy 4. The energy market. Pricing. 5. Energy security & Warfare
  31. 31. EMISSION-FREE FUTURE NOW AVAILABLE

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