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…ENNEN, NYT JA
TULEVAISUUDESSA
17.2.2016
Smart Energy Transition –seminaari,
Aalto-yliopiston kauppakorkeakoulu
Pasi Vaini...
/TOPICS 1. COP21. What did we agree?
2. Energy and electricity
3. Architecture
• Physical
• Internet of energy
4. The ener...
What did we agree in Paris 2015?
Country pledges
for 2030
/ THE OPTIONS
FOR ENERGY
SOURCES
NUCLEAR
CCS
RENEWABLES
/ ARCHITECTURE
SOLAR AND WIND
NEOCARBONISATION
BRIDGING
STORAGE
/ LESSON #1: COMBUSTION IS
HISTORY, ELECTRIFY
EVERYTHING
ENERGY MARKET =
ELECTRICITY MARKET
CONSUMPTION &
PRODUCTION
/ HOW DOES IT
LOOK IN
OPERATION
Source: Nordpool, 2012
Production follows consumption every
second
Finland, February 2012
Case: East Japan 2050
Source: Breyer, C., Bogdanov, D., 2014. North-East Asian Super Grid for 100% Renewable Energy power ...
/ IT’S THE INTERNET OF
EVERYTHING, MAN
THE ENERGY CLOUD
RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL
INDUSTRIAL
POWER PLANT
ONE-WAY POWER SYSTEM
TRANSMISSION
/ LESSON #2: A REAL TIME
ELECTRICITY MARKET CAN BE
ESTABLISHED
SO REAL TIME, IT IS IN FACTA
POWER MARKET
/ EXAPLE OF
PROGRESS
/DENMARKJULY2015
From hourly averages 2015 Q1-Q2:
- Wind from consumption: ’ONLY’ 43%
- For selected hours 140% from consu...
/ LESSON #3: HOW THE PRICE
IS FORMED? VALUE IS IN THE
SERVICES
END OF THE ’BRETTON
WOODS OF ENERGY’
/ ENERGY SECURITY
• It is a 80% fossil world
THE ENERGY CLOUD
RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL
INDUSTRIAL
POWER PLANT
ONE-WAY POWER SYSTEM
TRANSMISSION
/ LESSON #4: ENERGY
SECURITY GETS A NEW
MEANING
FROM PHYSICALASYMMETRY
TO CYBER SECURITY
/ DO WE KNOW HOW
GOOD THE MARGINAL
ENERGY ONLY MARKET IS
IN CAPACITYADDITIONS?
Historical power generation capacity
FIN+SWE+NOR
1950-1980
Capacity additions
FIN+SWE+NOR
Capacity additions
NOR
Capacity additions
SWE
Capacity additions
FIN
/ LESSON #5: (CURRENT)
MARKET BASED CAPACITY
ADDITIONS DO NOT MAKE
SENSE
AND WE HAVE NOT EVEN
DISCUSSED CONSUMPTION &
STOR...
http://www.hs.fi/paakirjoitukset/a1455255331872
/TOPICS 1. COP21. What did we agree?
2. Energy and electricity
3. Architecture
• Physical
• Internet of energy
4. The ener...
EMISSION-FREE
FUTURE NOW
AVAILABLE
Pasi Vainikka (VTT)  - Energiainvestoinnit ennen, nyt  ja tulevaisuudessa 18022016
Pasi Vainikka (VTT)  - Energiainvestoinnit ennen, nyt  ja tulevaisuudessa 18022016
Pasi Vainikka (VTT)  - Energiainvestoinnit ennen, nyt  ja tulevaisuudessa 18022016
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Pasi Vainikka (VTT) - Energiainvestoinnit ennen, nyt ja tulevaisuudessa 18022016

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Pasi Vainikan esitys energiajärjestelmän tulevaisuudesta. Smart Solar Growth -seminaari 18.2.2016

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Pasi Vainikka (VTT) - Energiainvestoinnit ennen, nyt ja tulevaisuudessa 18022016

  1. 1. …ENNEN, NYT JA TULEVAISUUDESSA 17.2.2016 Smart Energy Transition –seminaari, Aalto-yliopiston kauppakorkeakoulu Pasi Vainikka Johtava tutkija, VTT Dosentti, LUT
  2. 2. /TOPICS 1. COP21. What did we agree? 2. Energy and electricity 3. Architecture • Physical • Internet of energy 4. The energy market. Pricing. 5. Energy security & Warfare
  3. 3. What did we agree in Paris 2015? Country pledges for 2030
  4. 4. / THE OPTIONS FOR ENERGY SOURCES
  5. 5. NUCLEAR CCS RENEWABLES
  6. 6. / ARCHITECTURE
  7. 7. SOLAR AND WIND NEOCARBONISATION BRIDGING STORAGE
  8. 8. / LESSON #1: COMBUSTION IS HISTORY, ELECTRIFY EVERYTHING ENERGY MARKET = ELECTRICITY MARKET CONSUMPTION & PRODUCTION
  9. 9. / HOW DOES IT LOOK IN OPERATION
  10. 10. Source: Nordpool, 2012 Production follows consumption every second Finland, February 2012
  11. 11. Case: East Japan 2050 Source: Breyer, C., Bogdanov, D., 2014. North-East Asian Super Grid for 100% Renewable Energy power supply.
  12. 12. / IT’S THE INTERNET OF EVERYTHING, MAN
  13. 13. THE ENERGY CLOUD RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL POWER PLANT ONE-WAY POWER SYSTEM TRANSMISSION
  14. 14. / LESSON #2: A REAL TIME ELECTRICITY MARKET CAN BE ESTABLISHED SO REAL TIME, IT IS IN FACTA POWER MARKET
  15. 15. / EXAPLE OF PROGRESS
  16. 16. /DENMARKJULY2015 From hourly averages 2015 Q1-Q2: - Wind from consumption: ’ONLY’ 43% - For selected hours 140% from consumption - Capacity factor: 34%, 2940h - Installed capacity: 4900 MW
  17. 17. / LESSON #3: HOW THE PRICE IS FORMED? VALUE IS IN THE SERVICES END OF THE ’BRETTON WOODS OF ENERGY’
  18. 18. / ENERGY SECURITY
  19. 19. • It is a 80% fossil world
  20. 20. THE ENERGY CLOUD RESIDENTIAL COMMERCIAL INDUSTRIAL POWER PLANT ONE-WAY POWER SYSTEM TRANSMISSION
  21. 21. / LESSON #4: ENERGY SECURITY GETS A NEW MEANING FROM PHYSICALASYMMETRY TO CYBER SECURITY
  22. 22. / DO WE KNOW HOW GOOD THE MARGINAL ENERGY ONLY MARKET IS IN CAPACITYADDITIONS?
  23. 23. Historical power generation capacity FIN+SWE+NOR 1950-1980
  24. 24. Capacity additions FIN+SWE+NOR
  25. 25. Capacity additions NOR
  26. 26. Capacity additions SWE
  27. 27. Capacity additions FIN
  28. 28. / LESSON #5: (CURRENT) MARKET BASED CAPACITY ADDITIONS DO NOT MAKE SENSE AND WE HAVE NOT EVEN DISCUSSED CONSUMPTION & STORAGE YET
  29. 29. http://www.hs.fi/paakirjoitukset/a1455255331872
  30. 30. /TOPICS 1. COP21. What did we agree? 2. Energy and electricity 3. Architecture • Physical • Internet of energy 4. The energy market. Pricing. 5. Energy security & Warfare
  31. 31. EMISSION-FREE FUTURE NOW AVAILABLE

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