Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

Scenario Analysis on the Future of Burgers

117 views

Published on

This presentation is about a study of future meat production and consumption patterns, combined into a symbol of both, the burger.

This presentation shows the strategy of this foresight exercise especially since the scenario technique is used and finally shows the outcomes of this exercise.

For further information you can always contact me!

Published in: Science
  • Be the first to comment

  • Be the first to like this

Scenario Analysis on the Future of Burgers

  1. 1. Felix Zappe05.08.2017Kurs: Thema | Fakultät | Institution Disclaimer The Future of Burgers – A foresight exercise on meat production and consumption patterns by Katrina Scicluna & Felix Zappe as held in IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation at the Edward de Bono Institute on 18th May 2017
  2. 2. 05.08.2017 IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta DisclaimerAgenda Overview of our foresight approach2 Introduction to the topic and our research interest1 2 Who are the stakeholders involved3 Preliminary results at a glance4 Critical reflection on our approach5 Outcome6
  3. 3. 05.08.2017 IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta Disclaimer 3 1. Introduction to the topic and our research interest It’s burgers! The Patty The Experience Source: dailymail, 2016; The Guardian, 2015; Texas A&M University, 2017.
  4. 4. 05.08.2017 IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta Disclaimer 4 1. Introduction to the topic and our research interest Our foresight exercise in a nutshell Exploratory, expert and evidence driven, semi- quantitative approach 10 to 15 years Globally; advanced R&D-country level The change of meat production in special regard on it’s influence on consumption patterns Feasible within one month Exploring future meat consumption patterns
  5. 5. 05.08.2017 IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta Disclaimer 5 2. Overview of our foresight approach Explorative scenario building approach Source: Voros, 2003 Environmental scanning (quantitative & qualitative data) • Trend identification • Cross Impact Matrix • Drivers of Change analysis via STEEPV • Scenario building Breakdown of societal recommendations
  6. 6. 05.08.2017 IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta Disclaimer 6 3. Who are the stakeholders involved Diverse stakeholder environment Stakeholder criteria Stakeholder area Exemplary stakeholders voices Experience Causation Redemption Problem Fixing Consumers, SMEs, supplier, cooperation Politics, agricultural cooperations, food producing cooperations Farmers, SMEs NGOs, Think Tanks, research Institutes, entrepreneurs Food blogger; associations; strategic departments of cooperations Demographic or agricultural ministries; communications departments or lobbies of respective cooperation Farmer in interviews, blogs, newspapers or articles; meta-studies or articles Publications of TT / RI such as WEF or IFTF; Articles and interviews of entrepreneurs
  7. 7. 05.08.2017 IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta Disclaimer McDonald’s USDA Food and Agriculture lobbyists Jerry Murrel Burger conquest SNSF NCBI Europeen Commision Food- studies. com 7 3. Who are the stakeholders involved A scan of diverse experts during initial desk research Capone et. al WEF IFTF IoCE Two zesty bananas Eater WHO Katrina & Felix
  8. 8. 05.08.2017 IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta Disclaimer 8 4. Preliminary results at a glance The data so far has three main clusters: meat production, … Source: thebreakthrough, 2016; IFTF, 2011; Institute of Customer Experience, 2014.
  9. 9. 05.08.2017 IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta Disclaimer 9 4. Preliminary results at a glance … Burger creation and … Source: twozestybananas, 2017; Eater, 2011; plymouth herald, 2016.
  10. 10. 05.08.2017 IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta Disclaimer 10 4. Preliminary results at a glance … Changed consumption patterns Source: WHO, n.d.; Capone et. al., 2014; World Economic Forum, 2017.
  11. 11. 05.08.2017 IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta Disclaimer 11 5. Critical reflection on our approach Possible limitations Not enough resources (money, rights, connections etc.) to gather all the information required Not enough time for extensive research A high possibility of subjectivity during each step of the exercise (especially in the beginning) Failure of boiling down outcomes of actual scenarios into societal and personal action steps Loosing direction in complexity of the topic during research Flaws in conducting the methods (e.g. not enough expertise or flawed starting material)
  12. 12. 05.08.2017 IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta Disclaimer 12 6. Outcome STEEPV-Analysis of identified key driver 1 • Local focus • Growing inequality • Artificial Intelligenc e in future tech • Upcoming alternative approaches • Planetary pressure • Not enough production capacity • Pressure from population to meet its wants and needs • Lack of knowledge • Corruption • Eating healthy • Slowing down • Alternative approaches to life Social Technological Economic Ecologic ValuesPolitical Key driver 1: Changing Production pattern – Integration of new technology
  13. 13. 05.08.2017 IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta Disclaimer 13 6. Outcome STEEPV-Analysis of identified key driver 2 Social Technological Economic Ecologic ValuesPolitical Key driver 2: Consumption pattern: Convenience and Health • Slow changing habits • Miss-match of socioe- conomical demands • Growing importance of expe- riences • Demand for cheaper and more elaborated technic • Conveni- ence and health as selling arguments • Growing price acceptance • Emerging organic foods • High demand • Unclear ecological definition • Forging population -s slow changing habits • Serving a variety of peer groups • Main driver and selling argument • Growing hedonism • Health class system may evolve
  14. 14. 05.08.2017 IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta Disclaimer 14 6. Outcome The derived scenario
  15. 15. 05.08.2017 IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta Disclaimer For less closed eyes in future meat consumption! Thanks for your attention! For further results, an elaboration on the derived scenarios or discussions about this study, please contact me
  16. 16. 05.08.2017 IOT 5007 – Foresight Techniques for Creativity and Innovation: The Future of Burgers Edward de Bono Institute | University of Malta Disclaimer 16 Sources Tasty! Pictures Slide 1 Own picture Slide 3 • https://sirgo.org/burger-png.html • https://www.theguardian.com/news/datablog/2015/may /24/premium-burger-joints-rise-britain-datablog • http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article- 3275913/Lab-grown-burgers-menu-2020-Scientists-set- company-make-stem-cell-meat-affordable-reality.html • http://sustainability.tamu.edu/why-4-d.aspx • Own picture Slide 14 • http://www.heavenlynnhealthy.com/healthy-eating- london/ • https://techdigg.com/2017/04/21/this-japanese-smart- farm-is-getting-even-smarter/ • https://www.dreamstime.com/royalty-free-stock- photography-money-dinner-image9349227 • https://beancakes.me/2012/10/ Slide 15 http://www.hamburger-me.com/p/biggest-burgers.html All icons used are taken from noun project under creative commons licensing Content Slide 5 Voros, J., 2003. A generic foresight process framework. Foresight, vol.5, no.3, pp.10–21. Slide 8 • https://thebreakthrough.org/index.php/issues/the-future-of- food/the-future-of-meat • http://www.iftf.org/uploads/media/IFTF_SR1388_GFOFuturesFood .pdf • https://www.slideshare.net/UXTrendspotting/future-of-food- 37191410 Slide 9 • https://www.twozestybananas.com/burger-to-the-future/ • https://www.eater.com/2011/5/6/6682859/the-burger-of-the- future-as-imagined-by-dave-arnold • http://www.plymouthherald.co.uk/crunchy-mealworm-burgers- are-the-future-says-cornwall-scientist/story-29808490- detail/story.html Slide 10 • http://www.who.int/nutrition/topics/3_foodconsumption/en/inde x4.html • http://pubs.sciepub.com/jfs/2/1/2/ • http://www3.weforum.org/docs/IP/2016/NVA/WEF_FSA_FutureofG lobalFoodSystems.pdf

×