Introduction to Farming Futures - Claire Wyatt (Farming Futures)

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This presentation formed part of the Farming Futures event 'FarmWater Futures'.

30th March 2010

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Introduction to Farming Futures - Claire Wyatt (Farming Futures)

  1. 1. Farm Water Futures What can you do to make your business fit for the future? 30th March 2010 Claire Wyatt Forum for the Future
  2. 2. Outline of presentation • Why hold an event like today? • How does agriculture contribute to climate change? • The political landscape • Opportunities and Risks • What are some farmers already doing? Profitable business in a changing climate
  3. 3. What is Farming Futures? Profitable business in a changing climate
  4. 4. Information and inspiration • Partnerships • Fact sheets • Case studies • On-farm events • Media profile Profitable business in a changing climate
  5. 5. Profitable business in a changing climate
  6. 6. So, why is everyone talking about climate change?
  7. 7. The indisputable truth… Its warmer… >1°C Figure: Changes in Central England Temperature from 1877 to 2006 relative to the average over the 1961-90 baseline period (about 9.5 ºC). (Source: Met Office Hadley Centre)
  8. 8. Profitable business in a changing climate
  9. 9. 50% believe climate change is having an effect now Profitable business in a changing climate
  10. 10. 50% believe 63% think climate climate change is change will having an have an effect effect now in next 10 years Profitable business in a changing climate
  11. 11. 50% believe 63% think climate climate change is 31% are taking change will having an action to adapt have an effect effect now to the impacts in next 10 of climate years change Profitable business in a changing climate
  12. 12. Agriculture and climate change • Agriculture contributes 7% of the UK’s greenhouse gas emissions: • < 1% of carbon dioxide (CO2) • ~ 1/3rd of methane (CH4) • ~ 2/3rds of nitrous oxide (N2O) Profitable business in a changing climate
  13. 13. And it’s going to keep on changing… 2020: +1.3°C Max summer Average winter temperature temperature by 2050: +2.2°C 2050 up 3-4°C 2080: +3°C Medium emissions scenario – OPTIMISTIC! High emissions scenario mean summer temp by 2080: +4.9°C Profitable business in a changing climate
  14. 14. What about rainfall? 2020: -8% Winter rainfall Summer rainfall up 10-20% by 2050 2050: -20% 2080: -24% Medium emissions scenario – OPTIMISTIC! High emissions scenario by 2080: -30% Profitable business in a changing climate
  15. 15. The political landscape Profitable business in a changing climate
  16. 16. Targets and action plans • Renewable Energy Strategy - 15% total energy by 2020 • 30-40% of our elec from renewables • Low carbon transition plan – 11% by 2020 • GHG Action Plan (Climate change task force) • Campaigns and services • Act on CO2 • Defra Advisory Service • Carbon Trust loans • Food security • Increase production Profitable business in a changing climate
  17. 17. Low Carbon Transition Plan Profitable business in a changing climate
  18. 18. What about water? • 1.3 million hectares of farmland in floodplains • 40% loss of produce (2007) – £7-19m • Climate change could increase demand for irrigation by 50% by 2050 • This is for all farmers • Prices going up • Abstraction licences • Opportunities to save Profitable business in a changing climate
  19. 19. Who’s here to help? • Environment Agency - Water resources strategy • Environment Agency - Rainwater as a resource • Farming Futures - Water management fact sheet • UK Irrigation Association - reports and publications Profitable business in a changing climate
  20. 20. How? • Improved efficiency and productivity • Renewables • Flood management • Soil and Manure management • Water management and harvesting • Read the fact sheets and booklets! Profitable business in a changing climate
  21. 21. What are farmers already doing? Case study farmer – Elwyn Griffiths Profitable business in a changing climate
  22. 22. Conclusions • Good news for UK farmers: • Convergence of the food economy and the energy economy • Wider environmental goals • Global effects on world agriculture, and energy security issues • Potential for increased yields under warming + CO2 • Cost savings via adaptation, efficiencies and mitigation tech • Uncertainties remain: • Drought • Need to adapt and mitigate – costs and risks • Plan for uncertainties through more conserved feeds and mix of crops and harvest / sowing times. Multi-purpose land use. Profitable business in a changing climate
  23. 23. Any questions? • www.farmingfutures.org.uk • Claire Wyatt (project manager): c.wyatt@forumforthefuture.org.uk 07825 204434 0207 324 3670 Thank you! Profitable business in a changing climate

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