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Brave New Economic
Theory
for Sustainable Development
Tóth Gergely
New economics
1. Moral economics has a history!
2. Utilitarian economics is over?
3. Beware: Mainstream is a religion.
1817
Embedmentoftheeconomicparadigminsociety(-)
B.C. a.D.
333
1269
1375
1776
1664 1716
1798
1759
Moral Economics,
Utilitarian Economics
1871
1874
1890
Adam Smith, 1776
 „It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the
brewer or the baker, that we expect our dinner,
but from their regard to their own interest… We
address ourselves, not to their humanity but to
their self-love”
 „And he is … led by an invisible hand to
promote an end which was no part of his
intention.”
Baker – p. 27.
Book 1, Chapter 2.:
On the Principle which gives occasion
to the Division of Labour
Invisible hand
– p. 456
Book 4, Chap 2.: Of Restraints upon
the Importation from Foreign
Countries of Such Goods as can be
produced at Home
429 pages
1970-20081848-1917-1929-1945
1971
1934
1970
1976
1998
1936
1971
1973
1989
2006
1891 1931 1961, 63 1965 1967, 71 20091981, 84, 86, 87, 91
Embedmentoftheeconomyinsociety(-)
2012
1906
1916
New economics
1. Moral economics has a history!
2. Utilitarian economics is over?
3. Beware: Mainstream is a religion.
Ecological footprint and
biocapacity
Source: WWF, GFN, ZSL [2012]: Living Planet Report, p. 40.
Own research on EF
with Cecília Szigeti
1. Trends before 1961?
2. What are the turning points in history?
3. Birth of the current growth paradigm?
Estimation of the Ecological
Footprint from 10,000 B.C.
Sources
 Bolt, J. and van Zanden J. L [2013]: The
First Update of the Maddison Project; Re-
Estimating Growth Before 1820. Maddison
Project Working Paper 4.
 Kremer, M [1993]: Population Growth
and Technical Change: One Million BC.
The Quarterly Journal of Economics Vol.
108 No 3. (Aug. 1993) pp. 681-716.
 Angus Maddison [2001]: The World
Economy: A millennial perspective Paris:
OECD.
 Angus Maddison [2003]: The World
Economy: Historical Statistics. OECD.
 J. M. Keynes [1930]: Economic
Possibilities for Our Grandchildren. in
Essays in Peruasion Ch. 5. 360-361
Macmillan, London.
1. GFN database
2. Maddison data table
3. Bolt-van Zanden data
year
No. of
countries
R2
Consumption
dependent EF (x=GDP)
„Autonomous
EF”
1961 113 0,5075 0,0004x 1,1331
1962 119 0,5323 0,0004x 1,0221
1975 118 0,6044 0,0004x 1,1185
1980 118 0,6332 0,0003x 1,1621
1985 119 0,6938 0,0003x 1,1652
2005 114 0,7231 0,0002x 1,2501
2008 113 0,7529 0,0002x 1,2618
Regression Functions
Major sustainability indicators of mankind
among major transitions, from 10.000 B.C. to
2008
Era
(Year)
Variable
Birth of
Agriculture
(10,000 B.C.)
First
Civilizations
(3000 B.C.)
European
Conquests
(1500)
Technological-
Scientific
(R)evolution
(1820)
2008
World
Population
[million]
4 14 438.43 1041.71 6 694.83
World GDP
[billion G-K $] 1.87 6.53 248.32 693.5 50973.94
EF per capita
[global hectare] 1.21 1.21 1.25 1.29 2.7
Biocapacity per
capita [global
hectare]
2493.82 712.52 22.75 9.58 1.79
Earth Fullness
(%)[1] 0.05 0.17 5.48 13.48 150.84
Earth fullness in
the period (%)[2] 0.04 - 0.06 0.15 - 0.19 4.59 - 6.04 11.24 - 14.55 -
[1]
That is total eco-footprint divided by total biocapacity, in a given year.
[2]
Lowest and highest value of saturation (Earth Fullness) in the historic period, based on eight data lines of the model.
Earth Fullness from 10,000 BC to
2008
0,00%
20,00%
40,00%
60,00%
80,00%
100,00%
120,00%
140,00%
160,00%
-10000
-4000
-2000
-500
1
1500
1700
1913
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Earth fullness [% ]
Earth fullness [%]
Long term changes in Earth Fullness and
World Total Population, from 10.000 B.C. to
2008
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
-10 000 -3 000 -2 000 1500 1700 1820 1913 1961 1990 2008
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Earth
fullness (%)
World
Population
(million)
New economics
1. Moral economics has a history!
2. Utilitarian economics is over?
3. Beware: Mainstream is a religion.
1. God (HC*)
2. Commandments (TG)
3. Chief command (HC*)
4. Credo (TG)
5. Holy Trinity (TG)
*Harvey Cox [1999]:
The Market as God:
Living in the new
dispensation. The
Atlantic Monthly, March
1999, p. 18-23.
Furnishing of the Religion of
Economism
1. Marketgod
 Invisible, but overwhelming
 Power over time (credit)
 Infuses everywhere (family)
 Solves everything – Do not disturb!
 Confessional box, indulgence tickets
 Priests (econologians)
 Transformation
4. The creed of unsustainable
development
I believe in Growth, the
sustainable, almighty maker of
products and services, and the
Invisible Hand, which corrects all
market failures and leads us to the
Pareto optimum.
And in the Competition, the only
safeguard of development and
natural selection, which led from
the big boom, through evolution, to
the appearance of Man.
Science of science, rationality of
rationality, idol-worship from
paradigm, from science pretending
omnicompetence.
Everybody believes but not one has
proven, of one essence with the
meme, commanding and
controlling all our thoughts.
It was created for us men and for
our welfare, but has become our
enemy, descended into hell and
made the earth an impersonal hell.
It became a spiritual reality, and
was incarnate of the enlightenment
and Darwin, Freud, Marx, Mill,
Einstein. It became a Spirit.
…
5. The ‘holy
trinity’ of
economism
Go back, boys.
This is a TRAP!
Thank you for your attention!
Extra
Between
10,000 and
3000 B.C.
Between
3000 B.C.
and 1500
Between
1500 and
1820
Between
1820 and
2008
a. Length of period
app. 7000
years
app. 4500
years
320 years 188 years
b
.
Change of World
Population
[million/100 years]
0.14[1]
9.43 188.53 3141.17
c.
Change of Earth-fullness
in 100 years [ratio]
0.17[2]
11.8 250 7696
d
.
b/a 1.2 1.25 1.33 2.45
[1]
Method of calculation: difference in population (from Table 3) divided by the number of years. For a specific year: (14-4)/70=0.14.
[2]
Change in World Fullness (from Table 3) divided by the number of years. For a specific year: (0.17-0.05)*100/70=0.17.
Length and pace of
sustainability changes from
10.000 B.C. to 2008
Data table
years 1
B.C. 10 000 1000
B.C. 5000 1500
B.C. 4000 1600
B.C. 3000 1700
B.C. 2000 1820
B.C. 1000 1913
B.C. 500 1950-1960
B.C. 200 1961-2008
Indicator Unit
Total World
Population
million people
GDP per capita 1990 international Geary-
Khamis dollars
Ecological Footprint global hectares
EF per capita global hectares
Total biocapacity global hectares
EF-BC balance
global hectares
- minus if deficit
„Earth Fullness” %
USA: GDP and poor
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
19
3019
3419
3819
4219
4619
5019
5419
5819
6219
6619
7019
7419
7819
8219
8619
9019
9419
9820
02
2004: 11 734 bl USD
(114 X)
1929: 103 bl USD
Own calculation based on data from U.S. Department of Commerce
1959: 18.5%
2004: 10.2%
2. The „decalog” of utilitarian economics
I. commandment:
Man is selfish
Az ember haszonmaximalizáló, önérdekkövet lő ény, viselkedj hát te is így, s
mások ilyen motívumaira építsd viselkedésed!
II. commandment:
Cost/benefit
analysis
Mindig mérlegeld a két oldalt! Hiszen racionális lény vagy. Csökkentsd
költségeidet, növeld hasznodat! Törekedj a mindig nagyobb profitra!
III. commandment:
Division of Labor
A munkamegosztás segít, hogy ne csak alapszükségleteinket elégítsük ki,
hanem luxusigényeinket is. Márpedig fogyasztani jó.
IV. commandment:
Competition
Igyekezz legy zni versenytő ársaidat, a versenyképesség fejleszti folyamatosan
képességeidet. Így van ez a természetben is.
V. commandment:
Power, size
A természetben a gyorsabban alkalmazkodó nyer. Alkalmazkodj hát te is
gyorsan, pörögjél, növekedjél, legyél er ső és nyertes. Sikeres!
VI. commandment:
Unlimited world
A piacoknak nincs határa, globális szinten kell gondolkodni. Egy piaci
szerepl tő úl kicsi ahhoz, hogy kin je a rendszer hatő árait.
VII. commandment:
Self assurance
Légy biztos magadban! A rendszer régóta m kű ödik, sokan megjósolták a
végét, de még egyiknek sem lett igaza. A szocializmus csúfos kudarcot vallott.
VIII. commandment:
Safety
Törekedj a tökéletes biztonságra, semmit ne bízz a véletlenre. Tervezz,
ellen rizz, javő íts! Csökkentsd az emberi hibalehet ső éget.
IX. commandment:
Limits
Ne szegd meg a törvényeket – ha nem muszáj (ld. 2. commandment) – ne
szennyezd a környezetet, légy etikus. CSR!
X. commandment:
„Trust”
A többit bízd a technikára, a piacra, a gazdasági fejl dő ésre!
3. Chief command
Consume!
But what is economics?
 Making money?
 A Science?
 Natural Science?
 Paradigm?
Religion!
Per capita ecological footprint and GDP
from 10,000 BC to 2008
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
-10000
-1000
1500
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Ecological footprint per capita
[global hectare]
Ecological footprint per capita [global
hectare]
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
-10000
-1000
1500
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
Per CapitaGDP [1990International
Geary-Khamis dollars]
Per Capita GDP [1990 International
Geary-Khamisdollars]
Importance and problems
1.Finding correlation of GDP & EF
2.Long term data series (1:255)
3.Exact proof for the obsolescence
of the Growth Paradigm
(1776 – 10%, 2008 – 152%)
4.Proof against population bomb
5.Proof for a seventh jump
1. Historians, geographers,
anthropologist must join!
2. Anthropo-centric
3. „Backcasts” the current
consumption habbits
4. No IF>3 publishes  (6)
5. Angry economists  (1)
Input data, in significant historical
moments
Era
(Year)
Variable
Birth of
Agriculture
(10,000
B.C.)
First
Civilizations
(3000 B.C.)
European
Conquests
(1500)
Technologic
al-Scientific
(R)evolution
(1820)
2008
GDP per capita
(G-K $) 467 467 566 666 7614
Total
Population
(million) 4 14 438.43 1041.71 6 694.83
Sources: Keynes (1930), Kremer (1993), Maddison (2008), Takács-Sánta András (2004)
Eco-footprint and Earth-fullness from 10.000 B.C. to
2008
Year
World
population
[million]
Per
Capita
GDP
[1990 Int'l
G-K
dollars]
EF per
capita
[global
hectare]
Total EF
[1000 global
ha]
Total
biocapacity
[1000 global
ha]
Footprint
balance
[global ha –
minus if deficit]
Earth
fullness
[%]
-10 000 4 467 1,21 4,8 9 975,3 9 970,5 0,05%
-5 000 5 467 1,21 6,0 9 975,3 9 969,3 0,06%
-4 000 7 467 1,21 8,4 9 975,3 9 966,9 0,08%
-3 000 14 467 1,21 16,9 9 975,3 9 958,4 0,17%
-2 000 27 467 1,21 32,6 9 975,3 9 942,7 0,33%
-1 000 50 467 1,21 60,3 9 975,3 9 915,0 0,60%
-500 100 467 1,21 120,7 9 975,3 9 854,6 1,21%
-200 150 467 1,21 181,0 9 975,3 9 794,3 1,81%
1 226 467 1,21 272,5 9 975,3 9 702,8 2,73%
1000 267 453 1,20 321,2 9 975,3 9 654,1 3,22%
1500 438 566 1,25 546,5 9 975,3 9 428,8 5,48%
1600 556 596 1,26 699,8 9 975,3 9 275,5 7,02%
1700 603 615 1,27 764,0 9 975,3 9 211,3 7,66%
1820 1 042 666 1,29 1 339,9 9 975,3 8 635,4 13,43%
1950 2 528 2 111 1,86 4 712,9 9 975,3 5 262,4 47,25%
1970 3 691 3 729 2,77 10 208,8 10 230,8 22,1 99,78%
1990 5 269 5 150 2,66 14 063,9 11 282,1 -2 781,9 124,66%
2008 6 695 7 614 2,70 18 191,7 11 967,5 -6 224,2 152,01%
„The ideas of economists and political
philosophers, both when they are right and when
they are wrong, are more powerful than is
commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled
by little else. Practical men, who believe
themselves to be quite exempt from any
intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of
some defunct economist. Madmen in authority…”
„It is ideas, not vested
interests, which are
dangerous for good or
evil.”
J. M. Keynes, 1935.
(1986)2008
1945
1492(1640)
1760(1789)
476
B.C. a.D.
1269
1776
1936
333
Embedmentoftheeconomyinsociety(-)
John Maynard Keynes, 1930.
 „For at least another hundred years we must
pretend to ourselves and to everyone that fair is
foul and foul is fair; for foul is useful and fair is
not. Avarice and usury and precaution must be
our gods for a little longer still. For only they
can lead us out of the tunnel of economic
necessity into daylight.”
2008
1945
1789
1848 1989
Embedmentoftheeconomyinsociety(-)
What about
marxism?
1971-1986-2008
1973
1375
Embedmentoftheeconomyinsociety(-)
2012
2006
Religious
economics
Source: GFN [2011]: Global Footprint Network Annual Report 2010, p. 28-29.
Ecological footprint: Debtors and
Creditors
Impossible to be human and
sustainable
„These nineteenth-century ideas are firmly lodged in the
minds of practically everybody in the western world
today, whether educated or uneducated. …
The leading ideas of the nineteenth century, which
claimed to do away with metaphysics, are themselves a
bad, vicious, life-destroying type of metaphysics. We are
suffering from them as from a fatal disease.”
„…the sins of fathers will be
visited upon the children unto
the third and fourth generation
… and make them think by
[these ideas].”
E.F. Schumacher,
1973.
Power of the six paradigm
1. Evolution
2. Competition
3. Class conflict*
4. Biologism
5. Relativism
6. Positivism
*economic
reductionism and
determinism =
economism
Darwin, 1859
Marx, 1848
Freud, 1917
Einstein, 1905Comte, 1844
Mill, 1905
Mach, 1905
Content
3. How
2. What
The Miscarriage of Economism1. Why
Moral vs. Utilitarian Economics
Bionomy – Economic Theology
Lack of
-paradigm
Shift
(BAU)
Paradigm
-shift
Capitalism
(mainstram economics)
Reformers and challangers of economism
Alternative
economics
Religiousmoral
teachings
Sustainability
„science”
Socialism
Feudalism
Somethingism
(42)
Economic theories of SD
Bionomia is a new kind of economic theory, which is based
on the thorough study of the laws of life, with the primary
objective of serving life, especially human communities.
Economic theology
is an economic philosophy from
the school of moral economics,
which considers material goods as a means to advance
towards God, to human improvement,
which embraces the economic teaching of world religions,
alternative schools of economics and sustainable
development science.
homo oeconomicus
Objective
utility, marginal
happiness
Benefit and
marginal utility
Vocation meaning-
ful work)
Specialization (mean
-ingless work)
Truly Responsible Enterprise
(manager)
Profit-maximizing
corporation
(Local) money,
as a means of exchange
Money, as a means
of speculation
Extending cooperationExtending competition
Localization
(fullness, independence, freedom)
Globalization
(theory of comparative advantages)
GDP + ecol. footprintGDP
Peaceful balance
(grown up!)
Growth
InternalitiesExternalities
BionomyEconomism
antras teleios
Biology, etology
– laws
Religion - goals
Economics
- material basis
Economic
theology
Bionomy
Opportunity
for theoretical
unity
Gaps in existence
1.1. GodGod
2. Angel
3. Community
4. Man
5. Animal
6. Plant
7. Machine
8. Material
9. Nothing
Utilitar
Bionomia
Economictheology
too effectiveuneffective
optimum
Efficiency should not be
maximized but optimized!
Rethinking efficiency
X Efficiency means
Y Effectiveness
own
goal
Z Public-
effectiveness
public
goal
„We are not blindly
opposed to progress … we
are opposed to blind
progress”
Thank you for
your attention!
OK, I tell them.
But they won’t
like it…

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  • 1. Brave New Economic Theory for Sustainable Development Tóth Gergely
  • 2. New economics 1. Moral economics has a history! 2. Utilitarian economics is over? 3. Beware: Mainstream is a religion.
  • 4. Adam Smith, 1776  „It is not from the benevolence of the butcher, the brewer or the baker, that we expect our dinner, but from their regard to their own interest… We address ourselves, not to their humanity but to their self-love”  „And he is … led by an invisible hand to promote an end which was no part of his intention.”
  • 5. Baker – p. 27. Book 1, Chapter 2.: On the Principle which gives occasion to the Division of Labour Invisible hand – p. 456 Book 4, Chap 2.: Of Restraints upon the Importation from Foreign Countries of Such Goods as can be produced at Home 429 pages
  • 6. 1970-20081848-1917-1929-1945 1971 1934 1970 1976 1998 1936 1971 1973 1989 2006 1891 1931 1961, 63 1965 1967, 71 20091981, 84, 86, 87, 91 Embedmentoftheeconomyinsociety(-) 2012 1906 1916
  • 7. New economics 1. Moral economics has a history! 2. Utilitarian economics is over? 3. Beware: Mainstream is a religion.
  • 8. Ecological footprint and biocapacity Source: WWF, GFN, ZSL [2012]: Living Planet Report, p. 40.
  • 9. Own research on EF with Cecília Szigeti 1. Trends before 1961? 2. What are the turning points in history? 3. Birth of the current growth paradigm? Estimation of the Ecological Footprint from 10,000 B.C.
  • 10. Sources  Bolt, J. and van Zanden J. L [2013]: The First Update of the Maddison Project; Re- Estimating Growth Before 1820. Maddison Project Working Paper 4.  Kremer, M [1993]: Population Growth and Technical Change: One Million BC. The Quarterly Journal of Economics Vol. 108 No 3. (Aug. 1993) pp. 681-716.  Angus Maddison [2001]: The World Economy: A millennial perspective Paris: OECD.  Angus Maddison [2003]: The World Economy: Historical Statistics. OECD.  J. M. Keynes [1930]: Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren. in Essays in Peruasion Ch. 5. 360-361 Macmillan, London. 1. GFN database 2. Maddison data table 3. Bolt-van Zanden data
  • 11. year No. of countries R2 Consumption dependent EF (x=GDP) „Autonomous EF” 1961 113 0,5075 0,0004x 1,1331 1962 119 0,5323 0,0004x 1,0221 1975 118 0,6044 0,0004x 1,1185 1980 118 0,6332 0,0003x 1,1621 1985 119 0,6938 0,0003x 1,1652 2005 114 0,7231 0,0002x 1,2501 2008 113 0,7529 0,0002x 1,2618 Regression Functions
  • 12. Major sustainability indicators of mankind among major transitions, from 10.000 B.C. to 2008 Era (Year) Variable Birth of Agriculture (10,000 B.C.) First Civilizations (3000 B.C.) European Conquests (1500) Technological- Scientific (R)evolution (1820) 2008 World Population [million] 4 14 438.43 1041.71 6 694.83 World GDP [billion G-K $] 1.87 6.53 248.32 693.5 50973.94 EF per capita [global hectare] 1.21 1.21 1.25 1.29 2.7 Biocapacity per capita [global hectare] 2493.82 712.52 22.75 9.58 1.79 Earth Fullness (%)[1] 0.05 0.17 5.48 13.48 150.84 Earth fullness in the period (%)[2] 0.04 - 0.06 0.15 - 0.19 4.59 - 6.04 11.24 - 14.55 - [1] That is total eco-footprint divided by total biocapacity, in a given year. [2] Lowest and highest value of saturation (Earth Fullness) in the historic period, based on eight data lines of the model.
  • 13. Earth Fullness from 10,000 BC to 2008 0,00% 20,00% 40,00% 60,00% 80,00% 100,00% 120,00% 140,00% 160,00% -10000 -4000 -2000 -500 1 1500 1700 1913 1951 1953 1955 1957 1959 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 Earth fullness [% ] Earth fullness [%]
  • 14. Long term changes in Earth Fullness and World Total Population, from 10.000 B.C. to 2008 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120% 140% 160% -10 000 -3 000 -2 000 1500 1700 1820 1913 1961 1990 2008 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 Earth fullness (%) World Population (million)
  • 15. New economics 1. Moral economics has a history! 2. Utilitarian economics is over? 3. Beware: Mainstream is a religion.
  • 16. 1. God (HC*) 2. Commandments (TG) 3. Chief command (HC*) 4. Credo (TG) 5. Holy Trinity (TG) *Harvey Cox [1999]: The Market as God: Living in the new dispensation. The Atlantic Monthly, March 1999, p. 18-23. Furnishing of the Religion of Economism
  • 17. 1. Marketgod  Invisible, but overwhelming  Power over time (credit)  Infuses everywhere (family)  Solves everything – Do not disturb!  Confessional box, indulgence tickets  Priests (econologians)  Transformation
  • 18. 4. The creed of unsustainable development I believe in Growth, the sustainable, almighty maker of products and services, and the Invisible Hand, which corrects all market failures and leads us to the Pareto optimum. And in the Competition, the only safeguard of development and natural selection, which led from the big boom, through evolution, to the appearance of Man. Science of science, rationality of rationality, idol-worship from paradigm, from science pretending omnicompetence. Everybody believes but not one has proven, of one essence with the meme, commanding and controlling all our thoughts. It was created for us men and for our welfare, but has become our enemy, descended into hell and made the earth an impersonal hell. It became a spiritual reality, and was incarnate of the enlightenment and Darwin, Freud, Marx, Mill, Einstein. It became a Spirit. …
  • 20. Go back, boys. This is a TRAP! Thank you for your attention!
  • 21. Extra
  • 22. Between 10,000 and 3000 B.C. Between 3000 B.C. and 1500 Between 1500 and 1820 Between 1820 and 2008 a. Length of period app. 7000 years app. 4500 years 320 years 188 years b . Change of World Population [million/100 years] 0.14[1] 9.43 188.53 3141.17 c. Change of Earth-fullness in 100 years [ratio] 0.17[2] 11.8 250 7696 d . b/a 1.2 1.25 1.33 2.45 [1] Method of calculation: difference in population (from Table 3) divided by the number of years. For a specific year: (14-4)/70=0.14. [2] Change in World Fullness (from Table 3) divided by the number of years. For a specific year: (0.17-0.05)*100/70=0.17. Length and pace of sustainability changes from 10.000 B.C. to 2008
  • 23. Data table years 1 B.C. 10 000 1000 B.C. 5000 1500 B.C. 4000 1600 B.C. 3000 1700 B.C. 2000 1820 B.C. 1000 1913 B.C. 500 1950-1960 B.C. 200 1961-2008 Indicator Unit Total World Population million people GDP per capita 1990 international Geary- Khamis dollars Ecological Footprint global hectares EF per capita global hectares Total biocapacity global hectares EF-BC balance global hectares - minus if deficit „Earth Fullness” %
  • 24. USA: GDP and poor 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 19 3019 3419 3819 4219 4619 5019 5419 5819 6219 6619 7019 7419 7819 8219 8619 9019 9419 9820 02 2004: 11 734 bl USD (114 X) 1929: 103 bl USD Own calculation based on data from U.S. Department of Commerce 1959: 18.5% 2004: 10.2%
  • 25.
  • 26. 2. The „decalog” of utilitarian economics I. commandment: Man is selfish Az ember haszonmaximalizáló, önérdekkövet lő ény, viselkedj hát te is így, s mások ilyen motívumaira építsd viselkedésed! II. commandment: Cost/benefit analysis Mindig mérlegeld a két oldalt! Hiszen racionális lény vagy. Csökkentsd költségeidet, növeld hasznodat! Törekedj a mindig nagyobb profitra! III. commandment: Division of Labor A munkamegosztás segít, hogy ne csak alapszükségleteinket elégítsük ki, hanem luxusigényeinket is. Márpedig fogyasztani jó. IV. commandment: Competition Igyekezz legy zni versenytő ársaidat, a versenyképesség fejleszti folyamatosan képességeidet. Így van ez a természetben is. V. commandment: Power, size A természetben a gyorsabban alkalmazkodó nyer. Alkalmazkodj hát te is gyorsan, pörögjél, növekedjél, legyél er ső és nyertes. Sikeres! VI. commandment: Unlimited world A piacoknak nincs határa, globális szinten kell gondolkodni. Egy piaci szerepl tő úl kicsi ahhoz, hogy kin je a rendszer hatő árait. VII. commandment: Self assurance Légy biztos magadban! A rendszer régóta m kű ödik, sokan megjósolták a végét, de még egyiknek sem lett igaza. A szocializmus csúfos kudarcot vallott. VIII. commandment: Safety Törekedj a tökéletes biztonságra, semmit ne bízz a véletlenre. Tervezz, ellen rizz, javő íts! Csökkentsd az emberi hibalehet ső éget. IX. commandment: Limits Ne szegd meg a törvényeket – ha nem muszáj (ld. 2. commandment) – ne szennyezd a környezetet, légy etikus. CSR! X. commandment: „Trust” A többit bízd a technikára, a piacra, a gazdasági fejl dő ésre!
  • 28. But what is economics?  Making money?  A Science?  Natural Science?  Paradigm? Religion!
  • 29. Per capita ecological footprint and GDP from 10,000 BC to 2008 0,00 1,00 2,00 3,00 4,00 -10000 -1000 1500 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Ecological footprint per capita [global hectare] Ecological footprint per capita [global hectare] 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 -10000 -1000 1500 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Per CapitaGDP [1990International Geary-Khamis dollars] Per Capita GDP [1990 International Geary-Khamisdollars]
  • 30. Importance and problems 1.Finding correlation of GDP & EF 2.Long term data series (1:255) 3.Exact proof for the obsolescence of the Growth Paradigm (1776 – 10%, 2008 – 152%) 4.Proof against population bomb 5.Proof for a seventh jump 1. Historians, geographers, anthropologist must join! 2. Anthropo-centric 3. „Backcasts” the current consumption habbits 4. No IF>3 publishes  (6) 5. Angry economists  (1)
  • 31. Input data, in significant historical moments Era (Year) Variable Birth of Agriculture (10,000 B.C.) First Civilizations (3000 B.C.) European Conquests (1500) Technologic al-Scientific (R)evolution (1820) 2008 GDP per capita (G-K $) 467 467 566 666 7614 Total Population (million) 4 14 438.43 1041.71 6 694.83 Sources: Keynes (1930), Kremer (1993), Maddison (2008), Takács-Sánta András (2004)
  • 32. Eco-footprint and Earth-fullness from 10.000 B.C. to 2008 Year World population [million] Per Capita GDP [1990 Int'l G-K dollars] EF per capita [global hectare] Total EF [1000 global ha] Total biocapacity [1000 global ha] Footprint balance [global ha – minus if deficit] Earth fullness [%] -10 000 4 467 1,21 4,8 9 975,3 9 970,5 0,05% -5 000 5 467 1,21 6,0 9 975,3 9 969,3 0,06% -4 000 7 467 1,21 8,4 9 975,3 9 966,9 0,08% -3 000 14 467 1,21 16,9 9 975,3 9 958,4 0,17% -2 000 27 467 1,21 32,6 9 975,3 9 942,7 0,33% -1 000 50 467 1,21 60,3 9 975,3 9 915,0 0,60% -500 100 467 1,21 120,7 9 975,3 9 854,6 1,21% -200 150 467 1,21 181,0 9 975,3 9 794,3 1,81% 1 226 467 1,21 272,5 9 975,3 9 702,8 2,73% 1000 267 453 1,20 321,2 9 975,3 9 654,1 3,22% 1500 438 566 1,25 546,5 9 975,3 9 428,8 5,48% 1600 556 596 1,26 699,8 9 975,3 9 275,5 7,02% 1700 603 615 1,27 764,0 9 975,3 9 211,3 7,66% 1820 1 042 666 1,29 1 339,9 9 975,3 8 635,4 13,43% 1950 2 528 2 111 1,86 4 712,9 9 975,3 5 262,4 47,25% 1970 3 691 3 729 2,77 10 208,8 10 230,8 22,1 99,78% 1990 5 269 5 150 2,66 14 063,9 11 282,1 -2 781,9 124,66% 2008 6 695 7 614 2,70 18 191,7 11 967,5 -6 224,2 152,01%
  • 33. „The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority…” „It is ideas, not vested interests, which are dangerous for good or evil.” J. M. Keynes, 1935.
  • 35. John Maynard Keynes, 1930.  „For at least another hundred years we must pretend to ourselves and to everyone that fair is foul and foul is fair; for foul is useful and fair is not. Avarice and usury and precaution must be our gods for a little longer still. For only they can lead us out of the tunnel of economic necessity into daylight.”
  • 38. Source: GFN [2011]: Global Footprint Network Annual Report 2010, p. 28-29. Ecological footprint: Debtors and Creditors
  • 39. Impossible to be human and sustainable
  • 40. „These nineteenth-century ideas are firmly lodged in the minds of practically everybody in the western world today, whether educated or uneducated. … The leading ideas of the nineteenth century, which claimed to do away with metaphysics, are themselves a bad, vicious, life-destroying type of metaphysics. We are suffering from them as from a fatal disease.” „…the sins of fathers will be visited upon the children unto the third and fourth generation … and make them think by [these ideas].” E.F. Schumacher, 1973.
  • 41. Power of the six paradigm 1. Evolution 2. Competition 3. Class conflict* 4. Biologism 5. Relativism 6. Positivism *economic reductionism and determinism = economism Darwin, 1859 Marx, 1848 Freud, 1917 Einstein, 1905Comte, 1844 Mill, 1905 Mach, 1905
  • 42. Content 3. How 2. What The Miscarriage of Economism1. Why Moral vs. Utilitarian Economics Bionomy – Economic Theology
  • 44. Capitalism (mainstram economics) Reformers and challangers of economism Alternative economics Religiousmoral teachings Sustainability „science” Socialism Feudalism Somethingism (42)
  • 45. Economic theories of SD Bionomia is a new kind of economic theory, which is based on the thorough study of the laws of life, with the primary objective of serving life, especially human communities. Economic theology is an economic philosophy from the school of moral economics, which considers material goods as a means to advance towards God, to human improvement, which embraces the economic teaching of world religions, alternative schools of economics and sustainable development science.
  • 46. homo oeconomicus Objective utility, marginal happiness Benefit and marginal utility Vocation meaning- ful work) Specialization (mean -ingless work) Truly Responsible Enterprise (manager) Profit-maximizing corporation (Local) money, as a means of exchange Money, as a means of speculation Extending cooperationExtending competition Localization (fullness, independence, freedom) Globalization (theory of comparative advantages) GDP + ecol. footprintGDP Peaceful balance (grown up!) Growth InternalitiesExternalities BionomyEconomism antras teleios
  • 47. Biology, etology – laws Religion - goals Economics - material basis Economic theology Bionomy Opportunity for theoretical unity
  • 48. Gaps in existence 1.1. GodGod 2. Angel 3. Community 4. Man 5. Animal 6. Plant 7. Machine 8. Material 9. Nothing Utilitar Bionomia Economictheology
  • 49. too effectiveuneffective optimum Efficiency should not be maximized but optimized!
  • 50. Rethinking efficiency X Efficiency means Y Effectiveness own goal Z Public- effectiveness public goal
  • 51. „We are not blindly opposed to progress … we are opposed to blind progress”
  • 52. Thank you for your attention! OK, I tell them. But they won’t like it…

Editor's Notes

  1. From Moral Economics to Bionomia
  2. Moral economics – money serving people: Aristotel, Thomas Aquinas, Ibn Khaldun, Francois Quesney, Thomas Robert Malthus, Alfred Marshall Utilitarian economics – people serving money: Jean-Baptiste Colbert, John Law, Adam Smith, David Ricardo, Carl Menger, Léon Walras
  3. Nemzetek gazdagsága, 1776.
  4. Gesell
  5. Susan Barreto: Capitalism vs. morality? Economics and religion collide in how we view money's impact, Evangelical Lutheran Church in America http://www.elca.org/What-We-Believe/Social-Issues/Faith-Science-and-Technology/Covalence/Features/Capitalism-vs-morality.aspx
  6. econologians
  7. Azt persze mindnyájan érezzük, hogy nem minden változik javára, de „mindennek ára van” – vigasztaljuk magunkat. A valami, amiért az ilyesfajta árakat megfizetjük, az anyagi gazdagodás. Az Egyesült Államok bruttó hazai terméke, azaz az országban megtermel javak értéke például 114-szeresére nőtt az elmúlt 75 évben, az emberek jövedelme szintén sokszorosára hízott. Az anyagi gazdagodásnak számtalan a tagadhatatlan előnye; jobban, kényelmesebben és tovább élünk, mint a korábbi századokban. Ez kétségtelenül lenyűgöző, legalábbis a világ „boldogabbik” felén. De valóban boldogabbak lettünk, ha nem is 114-szer, de legalább kétszer inkább?
  8. John Maynard Keynes [1935]: General Theory, Ch. 24 "Concluding Notes" pg.383 „The ideas of economists and political philosophers, both when they are right and when they are wrong, are more powerful than is commonly understood. Indeed the world is ruled by little else. Practical men, who believe themselves to be quite exempt from any intellectual influence, are usually the slaves of some defunct economist. Madmen in authority, who hear voices in the air, are distilling their frenzy from some academic scribbler of a few years back. I am sure that the power of vested interests is vastly exaggerated compared with the gradual encroachment of ideas. … It is ideas, not vested interests, which are dangerous for good or evil.” „…a közgazdászok és politikai bölcselők nézetei – akár igazuk van, akár tévednek – sokkal nagyobb hatásúak, mint rendszerint hisszük; valójában mindennél jobban hatnak világunk sorsára. Azok a „gyakorlati emberek”, akik menteseknek vélik magukat minden szellemi befolyás hatásától, rendszerint valamelyik rég elhunyt közgazdász rabszolgái. Magas állásokat betöltő őrültek, akik hangokat hallanak a levegőben, hajdani könyvmolyoktól kölcsönözték rögeszméik magvát. Meggyőződésem, hogy rendkívül eltúlozzák a hagyományos érdekek erejét az eszmék fokozatosan érvényesülő hatalmával szemben. Az eszmék nem azonnal, de bizonyos idő múltával utat törnek; a közgazdaságtudomány és az állambölcselet terén ugyanis kevesen működnek olyanok, akiket huszonötödik vagy harmincadik életévük betöltése után új elméletek befolyásolnak, s ezért valószínű, hogy azok az eszmék, amelyeket közhivatalnokok és politikusok, sőt agitátorok a folyó eseményekre alkalmaznak, nem éppen a legújabbak. Előbb vagy utóbb azonban az eszmék és nem a hagyományos érdekek törnek új utakat, és vezetnek jóra vagy rosszra.”
  9. Nemzetek gazdagsága, 1776.
  10. Szerintem letelt a 100 év (nyilván nem matematikailag), de amúgy is tévedett Keynes. Az erkölcsöket csak örökre lehet félretenni, időlegesen nem. Ha egyébként elolvassuk az egész kontextusában a szöveget, nem ilyen cinikus. Keynes, Ricardo s úgyszólván a közgazdaságtan összes nagyja csak átmenetinek tekintette a gazdasági növekedést, „míg ki nem jutunk a szükség alagútjából”. John Maynard Keynes [1930]: Gazdasági lehetőségek unokáink számára When the accumulation of wealth is no longer of high social importance, there will be great changes in the code of morals. We shall be able to rid ourselves of many of the pseudo-moral principles which have hag-ridden us for two hundred years, by which we have exalted some of the most distasteful of human qualities into the position of the highest virtues. We shall be able to afford to dare to assess the money-motive at its true value. The love of money as a possession — as distinguished from the love of money as a means to the enjoyments and realities of life — will be recognised for what it is, a somewhat disgusting morbidity, one of those semi-criminal, semi-pathological propensities which one hands over with a shudder to the specialists in mental disease ... But beware! The time for all this is not yet. For at least another hundred years we must pretend to ourselves and to everyone that fair is foul and foul is fair; for foul is useful and fair is not. Avarice and usury and precaution must be our gods for a little longer still. For only they can lead us out of the tunnel of economic necessity into daylight. "The Future", Essays in Persuasion (1931) Ch. 5, JMK, CW, IX, pp.329 - 331, Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren (1930); as quoted in "Keynes and the Ethics of Capitalism" by Robert Skidelsy Ha a vagyon halmozása elveszíti társadalmi jelentőségét, az hatalmas változásokat hoz az erkölcsökben is. Képesek leszünk megszabadulni két évszázad lidérces ál-erkölcsi elveitől, melyek a legundorítóbb emberi tulajdonságok némelyikét emelték a legmagasabb erények helyébe. Valódi értékén tudjuk majd kezelni a pénzsóvárságot [money-motive]. A pénz önmagáért való szeretetét – megkülönböztetve a pénz, mint az élvezetekhez és az élet örömeihez és hasznos dolgaihoz jutás eszközéhez fűződő vonzalomtól – annak fogjuk tekinteni, ami valójában: némileg visszataszító betegségnek, olyan félig patológiás, félig bűnös hajlamnak, melyet enyhe iszonyattal bízunk az elmegyógyászok gondjaira… John Maynard Keynes [1930]: Gazdasági lehetőségek unokáink számára, in: Sebők Miklós, Pálvölgyi Balázs [2003]: Fordulat, Konferencia különszám, 2003. tavasz, 100. o. Így jogosnak gondolom, hogy visszatérjünk a vallás és a hagyományos erkölcs néhány biztos és kétségbevonhatatlan elvéhez – hogy a kapzsiság bűn, uzsorakamat kikényszerítése vétség, és a pénz szeretete gusztustalan; hogy azok járnak igazán az erény és a józan bölcsesség útján, akik a legkevésbé gondolnak a holnapra. Újra az eszközök fölé fogjuk helyezni a célokat, és a jót választjuk[?] a hasznos helyett. Tisztelni fogjuk azokat, akik meg tudják tanítani, hogyan töltsük el az időt erényesen és jól; akik az egyszerű dolgokban is örömüket lelik, a rét virágaiban, akik se nem vetnek, se nem aratnak. De vigyázat! Mindennek még nem érkezett el az ideje. Még legalább száz évig áltatnunk kell magunkat és másokat egyaránt, hogy a tisztességes a becstelen, és a becstelen a tisztességes; mert a becstelenség hasznos, a tisztességesség pedig nem az. Pénzéhség, uzsora és takarékoskodás kell, hogy legyenek a bálványaink – legalább még egy kis ideig. Mert csak ezek vezethetnek minket ki a napvilágra a gazdasági kényszerűség alagútjából. John Maynard Keynes [1930]: Gazdasági lehetőségek unokáink számára, in: Sebők Miklós, Pálvölgyi Balázs [2003]: Fordulat, Konferencia különszám, 2003. tavasz, 102. o.
  11. Nemzetek gazdagsága, 1776.
  12. Nemzetek gazdagsága, 1776.
  13. Önmagát túlélő értékrend
  14. Magyarul: E.F. Shumacher [1991]: A kicsi szép. 91.o., 93. o. „Akik új eszméket hoznak világra, azokat ritkán uralják ezek az eszmék. De eszméik a harmadik-negyedik generáció embereinek élete fölött hatalomra tesznek szert … A 19. századi apák eszméi a huszadik század második felében élő harmadik és negyedik nemzedéken állnak bosszút.” „A 19. század vezető eszméi ...végzetes betegségként gyötörnek bennünket.” Angolul: E.F. Schumacher: Small is beautiful, Vintage, 1993-2007. „These nineteenth-century ideas are firmly lodged in the minds of practically everybody in the western world today, whether educated or uneducated. … Those that bring forth new ideas are seldom ruled by them. But their ideas obtain power over men’s lives in the third and fourth generations … and make them think by it. The leading ideas of the nineteenth century, which claimed to do away with methaphysics, are themselves a bad, vicious, life-destroying type of methaphysics. We are suffering from them as from a fatal desease.” p. 70, 67, 71.
  15. Auguste Comte (1798-1857), French philosopher John Stuart Mill (1806-1873), English economist and philosopher Ernst Mach (1838-1916), Austrian physician and philosopher from Moravia
  16. Nemzetek gazdagsága, 1776.
  17. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution Carl Friedrich Gauss, 1809: legkisebb négyzetek módszere Pierre-Simon de Laplace, 1810: központi határeloszlás tétele Normális (Gauss) eloszlás (Normal distribution) A természetben akkor fordul elõ, ha sok, egymástól független (és az együttes hatáshoz képest kis hatású) tényezõ hatása összeadódik. Sûrûségfüggvénye: f(x) = 1/szigma sqrt(2pi) e^(-(x-mü)^2 / 2szigma^2) Standard normális eloszlás: középértéke = 0, szórása = 1. Tetszõleges normális eloszlásról a z-transzformációval lehet áttérni a standard normális eloszlásra.  Központi határeloszlás tétel (Central limit theorem) Nagyszámú, független valószínûségi változó összege aszimptotikusan normális eloszlású, ha az egyes valószínûségi változók elég kicsik az összeghez képest. (Aszimptotikusan: ha a valószínûségi változók egyre nagyobb számú összegének sorozatát vesszük.)  http://xenia.sote.hu/hu/biosci/docs/biometr/course/concepts/#central_limit_theorem