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Design school2 sds

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cours Mobilité the SDS - jour 1

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Design school2 sds

  1. 1. gabriel.plassat @ ademe.fr http://gabrielplassat.fr Mobility & Transportation System for the Future Which Mobility for the future ? For every one, everywhere In a world of less raw material and more intelligence …
  2. 2. gabriel.plassat @ ademe.fr http://gabrielplassat.fr Histoire : comment en sommes nous arrivés là ? Le numérique, une révolution terminée Les superpouvoirs des plateformes • En groupe / Créer un service de Mobilité REPAS La Fabrique des Mobilités, innover en écosystème • 20 Questions (note)
  3. 3. Business Models Multi modality Real time Pollutions Industry GHG Commuter Data SmartPhone Physical meeting VEHICLE ENERGY Infrastructure Future of Work Hubs
  4. 4. http://transportsdufutur.typepad.fr
  5. 5. Horse > Car > ?
  6. 6. Money : more GDP => more km, more speed, alone … moins de TC : 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0 10 20 30 40 50 Per Capita GDP @ PPP VehiclesPer1000People 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 0 10 20 30 40 50 Per Capita GDP @ PPP VehiclesPer1000People Vehicle Density vs. Income (for 2002 and 2007) Singapore Hong Kong United States W. Europe & Japan Empreinte écologique, Écart en % / moy (UK)
  7. 7. 4 more free time in 100 years 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 aujourd'hui début siècle .000 hours TODAY 1900
  8. 8. Baku, Azerbaijan
  9. 9. From ultra deep exploration To ultra deep conversion Is fuel expensive ? 1.5€ (0.5€ for oil company) for 42 MJ Oil and fuels High Technology, More and more risky, High characteristics (energetic density in volum) Without any public recognition At a very LOW PRICE !!
  10. 10. The oil, squeezed between economic / environmental, toward a transition: variable depending on modes of transport, an acceptable price with alternatives necessarily massive to have a impact, in two waves: 1. explosion in the number of pathways, 2. specialization. 1st Wave: • 1st and 2nd generation biofuels with difficult assessments • Natural Gas "additived" with Biogas and H2, • Electricity (s) with variable performances, • Short loop (HAU, biogas, crude oil) in public or private management, With multiple solutions in most cases: actual performance of the multi well to wheel (Biocarb, electricity) sensitive Difficult Political decision making, little investment in infrastructure, difficult for manufacturers to follow all the pathway => The first wave could be long ... The fundamentals, Energy
  11. 11. Shanghai, China
  12. 12. 4000 engines / day Millisecond, milligram, Cubic Millimeter of fuel Micron machined 120 000 parts identical but all different 5 years warranty – 100 000 km Full Energy in 3 minutes 20+/- 0.5°C Very low emissions and consumption / kWh Vehicle – Internal Combustion Engine Particules NOx HC CO EURO III EURO 0 EURO -1 EURO I EURO II EURO IV 18 14,4 11,2 14 2,4 3,50,36 0,15 1,10,10 5,0 3,5 8,0 7,0 0,02 0,660,46 4,5 4,0 2,1 1,5 EURO V2,0
  13. 13. OEM
  14. 14. time Fuel Consumption Reduction due to Technical progress But real progress are null : Accessories (€ benefits) Pseudo performance (€ benefits) Constraints emissions / safety. 60 years of difference and same FC … Progress, but for whom?
  15. 15. 50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 PSA BMW TOYOTA Puiss(kW) Prix (€) E E E ET D E D D D D D D D E E D Power (maxi) Is easy to sell ! 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000 40000 PSA BMW TOYOTA Prix (€) Masse(kg) The car is sold by kilo, no vehicle manufacturer sell a car lighter and more expensive D D D D D D E EE ET
  16. 16. time Fuelcons Potentiel of Technical benefits Marketing mass Real progress From "new needs" of consumers : Comfort, safety, 4x4 Increase "pseudo-performance" YESTERDAY The fundamental •Power (max, so unused by the client ...) •Flat screens in the headrests, air conditioning multizone ... (mass Merchant) •Respecting standards (Euro, security) •While being 'similar' in use => energy efficiency is not easy to sell time Fuelcons Reduction in Marketing mass Isoperformance => "90g Now" no extra cost More Marketing Mass More technology "My minivan hybrid" TOMORROW ou
  17. 17. NEW Veh All Veh 1 to 3 Millions Drivers out of Norm : -insurance, -Permit -Technical control years
  18. 18. an « old problem »
  19. 19. Constraint on pollutants => Emissions norms Euro (IV to VI) Links pollutants / fuel consumption and GHG Le transport du futur devra concilier les 3 aspects : Diversification (alternative to fossile) + GHG emissions under constraints (Factor 4) + Pollutants Emissions under constraint (Euro X) => Optimisation of « components » like vehicle is not sufficient => Need to optimise also the SYSTEM Constraints on energy & GHG => diversification and efficiency
  20. 20. New Technology New Vehicle on the road : • €, • too slow ! • If less FC then more km ! TODAY NO CLEAR and SHARED VISIONS TO REACH F4, Air Quality, reduce congestions GHG, Air Quality AQ
  21. 21. THE END
  22. 22. Vincent Besson : Change ahead will be as violent as the transition from horse to the automobile Michel Serres : Digital evolution, 3rd of our species after writing and printing Stéphane Vial : « After the wood , wind, water, coal and steel , and thermal and electrical machines , digital is the new matrix ».
  23. 23. + Network Tool for simplification
  24. 24. par @15marches, Stéphane Schultz
  25. 25. Mobility Immobility Activity MutationS
  26. 26. 4 pillars to consider a Mobility System The meeting, in a given area, of a user and … an energy: fossil, biomass, muscle, available through a distribution network, a vehicle (which converts the energy in motion): truck, car, bicycle, walking, available in own account or for others, property or shares, an infrastructure (which allow the movement and possibly easier): road, rail, urban planning, but also interfaces to change 'vehicle' : station, parking, delivery area, logistics platform, and Information (which allowed yesterday to facilitate the movement, and who will, tomorrow, optimize it): theoretical hourly, hourly real-time traffic, weather, … A Mobility System allows In order to realise an activity.
  27. 27. Mono usage 2-3 roues … From multi-use… Fashion clothing Walk, Bike, scooter Vélib’ Car Car sharing Location Autolib’ Carpooling Taxi Transp. On demand Bus, tram métro taxi Individual association business collective Public Semi public Private
  28. 28. Autopartag e entre part. Autop. « opéré » Flotte de voiture « opérée » Vélo Libre serv. Voiture possédée Integration / complexification for operators Integration / Simplification For users
  29. 29. How to engage these changement quickly ? Better utilisa° Of public transp.
  30. 30. Autolib Vélib CarSharingPeer2 Peer CarPooling YesterdayToday Tomorrow Public = private Indiv = Collective => « free seat market » Simple & real time access (insurance, inscrip°…) Simple & real time exit (payment, reputa°)
  31. 31. + 1% / year Connexion 1/8 years Incremental + 10-100% / year Daily connexion Change Mobility behavior
  32. 32. PLATFORM North America Europe Africa & Latin America Asia Source: P. Evans, CGE; CB Insights, Capital IQ, CrunchBase, 2015
  33. 33. Source: Nicolas COLIN The Family, Hedge: A Greater Safety Net for the Entrepreneurial Age 2018
  34. 34. How are we moving ? v1.0 (publ.)
  35. 35. How are we moving ? v2.0 (private)
  36. 36. Application Digital routes … « Bikability » How are we moving ? v2.0 (publ/private)
  37. 37. Identify & Synchronise Main competences Industry Behavior Skill acceptability City
  38. 38. Example Ha:Mo by Toyota
  39. 39. Car owned Car non-owned less km More pass/veh Car non-owned And operated less km More pass/veh More efficient
  40. 40. Service Mobility brings : •Non-owned car •With New specifications •Used by citizens but not owned •Shared & operated •Using other energy •And much more efficient
  41. 41. I
  42. 42. I
  43. 43. I
  44. 44. Driverless Cities
  45. 45. Key players in the field of mobility ? What innovations ? Create a mobility service (Business Canvas) : 11h30 => 14h30 1.Ideation, Business Model, go 2 market, 2.Strategy, growth => business canvas completed 3.Pitch 14h30 => 14h50 Some ideas ?!  • helicopter, e-scooters, … • Childrens / school, sports … • Tourism, deasables person • Cooperative in rural area • Google city • autonomous shuttle : road, river, train • Co-walking for children, for olderly people, • Bike bus, • Food Delivery in the train, bus, stations, car, … • Energy delivery in your parking, house, …
  46. 46. pers.km (flux) Billions City Extra urban Long dist. TOTAL PC PC serv. Train Bus Bike 2 W 2 W serv TOTAL 700 City Extra urban Long dist. TOTAL PC PC serv. Train Bus Bike 2 W 2 W serv TOTAL / pers / vehicle = City Extra urban Long dist. TOTAL PC PC serv. Train Bus Bike 2 W 2 W serv TOTAL vehicle.km combustion combustion + electricity electricity gCO2/km – MJ/km combustion combustion + electricity electricity Utilisation (% distance) average gCO2/km – MJ/km X = X = MTCO2 – MJ By energy By vehicle ADEME 2030-2050 calculations (GHG/MJ)
  47. 47. ADEME 2030-2050 calculations (GHG/MJ) 200,0 300,0 400,0 500,0 600,0 700,0 800,0 900,0 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 Voyageurs March Voiture VUL Camion 325 Flux de véhicule (Md véh.km) Flux de voyageur (Md voy.km) et de Marchandises (G T.km) 343 377 711 790 750 425 428 300 77 85 60 24 22 27 pers.km, vehicle.km and ton.km(flux) Pers/veh in PC serv: 1,2 1,5 2 % flux by PC serv 0 (city/extra/LD) 10-10-5 25-20-15 Pers/veh in Bus ref +20% +20%/2030 % flux by Bike 4-1-0 10-6-0 15-7-0 % flux by Bus 6 10 15
  48. 48. ADEME 2030-2050 calculations (GHG/MJ) Emissions de GES en MTCO2 et facteur de réduction (réf 1990) 0,0 0,5 1,0 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 71,2 17,7 32,1 40,6 21,9 10,1 14,5 11 3,5 121 72 29 Voyageurs VUL March 0,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 25,00 30,00 35,00 40,00 45,00 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 Voyageurs VUL March 38,5 1 24,5 2 12 5 CONSOMMATIONS ENERGETIQUES en MTEP (liquide/gaz et électricité) Liquide/Gaz Liquide/Gaz Liquide/Gaz Electricité Electricité Electricité GHG emission (MTCO2) and reduction factor ENERGY in MTEP • « standard » Progress • Electric, plug-in : first for PC serv • 2030 mix fleet : 100 gCO2/km 25 millions PC : 5% EV, 9% plug-in • 2050 mix fleet : 56 gCO2/km 16 millions PC : 28% EV, 38% plug-in Biofuel potential : • 5 MTEP biogas • 3 MTEP liquid (2G)
  49. 49. From Pathway to Ecosystem « (how to) be more intelligent at large scale »
  50. 50. 70 Innovations are changing… Uber, Waze, Blablacar, Drivy… and next ? New mobility behaviour at large scale Massives solutions Techno & Socio Identify, support and accelerate 1er sector for GHG, pollution, congestion FabMob version proto FABMOB A NEW WAY TO SUPPORT INNOVATION
  51. 51. Empower Entrepreneurs, Cities, Labs, Schools with Open Source for building sustainable Mobility 2 7 1 http://fabmob.io (NGO)
  52. 52. 72 BRINGING RESOURCES TO ENTREPRENEURS
  53. 53. Open Source is not anymore an option for Europe
  54. 54. 20 8Cities 7 930Persons clusters 300+startups 320 20+commons Companies Schools & labs communities 1+1 Wiki.fabmob.io Chat.fabmob.io 1 2000Network contacts 80 partners (09/2018) – France & Québec – Starting in Africa & Italy
  55. 55. Identification centralisée (login – mot de passe unique) - à finaliser - Wiki pour documenter Décrire, indexer les ressources Relier personnes, compétences, Projets, communs, communautés Chat pour discuter Sur tous les domaines Par communautés d’intérêt Site et Blog pour faire découvrir Présenter la Fabrique Et les adhérents Forum pour débattre Sur les principaux défis, Sur les actions à engager Pad pour rédiger ensemble Lors des ateliers, des événements Pour faciliter la documentation Et l’engagement d’actions collectives pour adhérer !! Et organiser la billeterie Des événements, AG et Ateliers
  56. 56. Create Open Assets useful for all stakeholders : data, soft and hardware 7 7
  57. 57. ?
  58. 58. User Contributor Asset Community, Ecosystem License, Business Model Market Strategy New Culture
  59. 59. AFRIQUE Lancement du projet DigitalTransport4Africa QUEBEC Lancement de la FabMobQC ITALIE Echanges avec la Fondation Italienne Développement Durable ALLEMAGNE Echanges Open Source & Shared Mobility
  60. 60. Market Education Research Idea Prototype MVP Available Improve Hubs Low cost Bike Sharing Connected Box Vehicle Open source Personal Tracker Ridesharing Certification Ridesharing DataBase Bike Vehicle Vehicle (behavior) Urbanism Mobility (behavior) Mobility Individual Acount Digital Transport 4 Africa
  61. 61. Can you take advantage to join a community ? Which one ? What do you need in your project & that you should open source ? What are the existing open resource useful for your project ? How will you experiment ? 2 8 2 FabMob (NGO)
  62. 62. Research actions for Mobility 2.0 • Multi-field : socio to techno, ITS to logistic … • Users science : how generate confidance ? How to integrate new user behavior ? • Understanding & Optimisation of complex system, • New method to understand new demand, to design solutions with users and providers, • Tool for capitalisation in order to « industrialise » methodology (not the solutions) • Living labs, requested to test, design, validate
  63. 63. • Transition from Vehicle-object to Service is a chance for industry, citizen and environment, • New Value Chains, new actor, • Who will be multimodal mobility operator? • New ecosystem, user will be center • Data is the heart : to share • New culture to develop : education, learning in projects
  64. 64. http://fabmob.io http://wiki.fabmob.io http://gabrielplassat.fr

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