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NPD for FESI European Sport Market Estimate


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European Sport Market Estimate release 2011 in euros

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NPD for FESI European Sport Market Estimate

  1. 1. AUTOMOTIVEBEAUTYCOMMERCIAL TECHNOLOGYCONSUMER TECHNOLOGY http://corpdevnew/image_library/ENTERTAINMENTFASHIONFOOD & BEVERAGEFOODSERVICEHOMEOFFICE SUPPLIESSOFTWARESPORTS European Sport Market Size EstimateTOYS Release 2011WIRELESS In Euros / Sixth edition of a survey initiated in 2005 Based on consumer tracking (where available), statistical projections and our industry expertise Figures are sell-out (retail VAT included), not wholesale Copyright. The NPD Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved. This presentation is Proprietary and Confidential and 1 may not be disclosed in any manner, in whole or in part, to any third party without the express written consent of NPD.
  2. 2. AUTOMOTIVEBEAUTYCOMMERCIAL TECHNOLOGYCONSUMER TECHNOLOGYENTERTAINMENTFASHIONFOOD & BEVERAGEFOODSERVICEHOMEOFFICE SUPPLIESSOFTWARESPORTSTOYSWIRELESS Results 2010 Copyright The NPD Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved. This presentation is Proprietary and Confidential and 2 may not be disclosed in any manner, in whole or in part, to any third party without the express written consent of NPD. Proprietary and Confidential
  3. 3. Global Sport Market Size Estimate, Year 2010, Billion Euros226 Billion Euros +4% Trend 10/09 3 Proprietary and Confidential
  4. 4. European Sport Market Size Estimate, Year 2010, Billion Euros66 Billion Euros +2% Trend 10/09 4 Proprietary and Confidential
  5. 5. Market sizes and Evolution rates by area in Scandinavia, Central & Eastern Europe and Western Europe Main Markets in Billion Euros Year 2010 Trends 10/09 +2% +7% +1%Western Central and Scandinavia*Europe Eastern Europe 4.8 52.7 8.7 * Norway, Sweden, Finland, Denmark 5 Proprietary and Confidential
  6. 6. How Does the European Sport Market Look Segmented By Universe of Products? 2010 In Billion Euros and trend vs 2009 Footwear Equipment 14.5 Billion Euros 16.9 Billion Euros +3% +2% Bikes (and related Apparel accessories) 23.9 Billion Euros 10.9 Billion Euros +2% +1% 6 Proprietary and Confidential
  7. 7. In comparison with last year, we have revised upwards our estimate for Equipment in EuropeEuropean Market Broken Out into 4 Segments % Value 2010 Split by universe of products in % value Footwear; Bikes; 16% 22% Equipment ; 26% Apparel; 36% 7 Proprietary and Confidential
  8. 8. AUTOMOTIVEBEAUTYCOMMERCIAL TECHNOLOGYCONSUMER TECHNOLOGYENTERTAINMENTFASHIONFOOD & BEVERAGEFOODSERVICEHOMEOFFICE SUPPLIESSOFTWARESPORTSTOYSWIRELESS 5 year Trends 10/05 Copyright 2008. The NPD Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved. This presentation is Proprietary and Confidential and 8 may not be disclosed in any manner, in whole or in part, to any third party without the express written consent of NPD. Proprietary and Confidential
  9. 9. European Sport Market Trends Over The Last Few Years & Forecast 2011 +4% +1% +2% +4% +2% +0%+3% +4% Forecast 11/10 -1% -1% Trend Trend 10/09 07/06 TrendTrend Trend 08/0706/05 09/08 9 Proprietary and Confidential
  10. 10. Europe: A Fragmented Market Top 12 Markets Year 2010 Total Europe +2% Trend 10/09 66.2 Billion Euros In Billion Euros In % Germany 12% 17% 7,9 France 11,4 2% 1,4 United Kingdom 2% 1,5 Italy 2% 1,2 2% 1,3 Spain 3%1,7 Russia 3% 15%2,2 9,6 Netherlands 4%2,9 Sweden Belgium 6% 4,1 Poland 13% 4,9 8,7 Greece 7% 7,3 Austria 11% Switzerland All others 10 Proprietary and Confidential
  11. 11. Russia bounced back in 2010 while France, UK Italy and Spain were only able to put an end to 2009 decline Main Marketsin Billion Euros Germany +1% Year 2010 11.4 France 9.6 +0% UK +1% 8.7 Italy +1% 7.3 Spain +0% 4.9 Russia 4.1 +7% 11 Proprietary and Confidential
  12. 12. Other countries in Europe show moderate growth to the exception of Greece where consumption is slowing down due to the recession Main Markets in Billion Euros Year 2010 Netherlands Austria 2.9 +0% 1.5 +4% Sweden Switzerland 2.2 +1% 1.4 +5% Belgium Norway 1.7 +4% 1.0 +2% Poland Czech Rep. 1.3 +7% 0.8 +5% Greece Denmark 1.2 -2% 0.9 +4% Ireland Finland 0.8 +2% 0.7 +6% 12 Proprietary and Confidential
  13. 13. Other Analyses 13 Proprietary and Confidential
  14. 14. What is the Average Spend per Head by country In the European Sport market?In Billion EurosYear 2010 World : 33 Europe 90 Central and Western Europe andEastern Europe 27 Scandinavia 140 Poland 35 Germany 140 Italy 121 Russia 29 France 153 Spain 106 Czech Rep. 76 United Kingdom 141 Sweden 232 Austria 176 Netherlands 175 Belgium 160 Switzerland 185 14 Proprietary and Confidential
  16. 16. Definitions We are trying to figure out global consumption for Sporting goods. For footwear and apparel, the intention is to represent Sport and Sport inspired shoes and garments. So the scope goes beyond sport use. It includes sport style as far as it can be detected either by NPD or by consumer perception. We have slight differences in methodology depending upon countries, but we are trying to keep it comparable. 16 Proprietary and Confidential
  17. 17. NPD Regional Product MixCommon Denominator across countries is Consumer Panel information Brazil & Russia ongoing tracker in 2011 17 17 Proprietary and Confidential
  18. 18. Which Part Of The World Is Covered By On-going Tracking? The NPD Group, in association with its Population partners, has an on-going tracking service that 16% collects sports footwear and sports apparel data in 10 countries for the year 2010 Projected Tracked These 10 countries account for 16% of the global population and 68% of global spending on sports footwear and sports apparel. Sport market Other countries and equipment are estimated through statistical projections and NPD’s industry expertise. Projected 68% Tracked 18 Proprietary and Confidential
  19. 19. The Online Consumer Panel What is the online consumer panel? – Individuals are recording online purchases of: • Sports footwear • Sports apparel – Panelists are recruited to represent country demographics – The data is then weighted to represent the total population of the country, and data is reported quarterly. 19 Proprietary and Confidential
  20. 20. Global Panel pool Size -Individuals 1 Million of More than people worldwide have given their approval to be surveyed in our consumer panel 20 Proprietary and Confidential
  21. 21. Global Panel Database Size Database size for the year 2009 (sport footwear & apparel combined) 1 million More than purchases worldwide recollected over the last 2 years, in the database, to be able to give a trend Per year: – 275,000 purchases in Canada and the U.S. – 185,000 purchases in Europe covering Great Britain, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Netherlands, and Sweden. – 40,000 purchases in Japan 21 Proprietary and Confidential
  22. 22. Definitions - What Is In? What Is Out? By CategoryINCLUDES EXCLUDES Sport Footwear/Trainers: Any sport, active, or sport-style footwear worn for leisure and sport clogs outdoor shoes, after ski boots, winter boots, hunting and fishing boots non branded thongs and flip flops Footwear sport sandals , ballerinas (partly,based on consumer perception) Footwear swim sandals (counted in equipment) branded thongs and flip flops, recreational workboots (partly, based on rain boots, gardening boots consumer perception) Sport Clothing: Any sport , sport inspired clothing or active Apparel wear, worn for sport or leisure and any casual garment Apparel Formal wear / city wear worn for sport. Whatever has an engine, guns air bottle for diving, boats Everything as soon as it is being sold within sporting goods stores Some categories for the part of the business done outside the Inline skates and ski boots are reported in equipment sport distribution or in B to B channel (ex fitness equipment) : Bikes are included wherever they are sold , all of them including those Travel luggage, Back to school backpacks, optics/sunglassesEquipment used as a way of transportation Equipment some camping&hiking gear (cooler bags and insulated E-bikes are included. containers, camping gaz, dried food, maps, Guides, GPS hammocks&camps beds) Fun sports and games ( Darts Boule petanque Frisbee, boomerangs, juggling articles, kite flying Billiard Bowling) Services Bicycles and ski maintenance, rental bicycles & ski services Services Ticketing for sport competitions Borderline sports such as Motor sports, fishing hunting Diving Skydiving, Paragliding are estimated as our experience shows that consumers hardly declare them as sports Sports For equipment we do not have a consumer tracking, only external Sports all covered sources; As a consequence, Data is subject to variations according to the sources considered Age All age groups are included infant sizes (partly, based on consumer perception) for footwear , apparel and bikes : whether it is sold or not in sport distribution does not matter B to B sales excluded. For Equipment:we cover only sales done inside the sport distribution for instance we exclude a sport retailer selling directly tennis ballsDistribution notably travel luggage,cooler bags and insulated containers, camping Distribution to a tennis club or Fitness equipment manufacturers selling gaz, dried food, maps, Guides, GPS hammocks&camps beds, Back to treadmills, stationary bikes or rowers to a gym club school backpacks, sunglasses, sun skin protection- This is up to the consumers to decide if a brand/a garment is belonging 22Perception (and therefore declared) or not (then not declared) to the sport universe Proprietary and Confidential
  23. 23. Understanding for One Given Sport, How Revenue Breaks Down Between Sport Use and Sport-inspired. Each Sport Generates A Market for A Market for garments and Sport Practice shoes inspired by the sport Footwear / Apparel / Equipment Footwear / Apparel 23 Proprietary and Confidential
  24. 24. METHODOLOGYUsed for SportMade for Sport & not used for sportMade for Sport & used for SportCannot be read directly in the report 24 Proprietary and Confidential
  25. 25. Understanding for One Given Sport, How Revenue Breaks Down Between Sport Use and Sport-inspired.Used for the sport – All shoes and garments worn primarily for sport use. Apparel used for the sport Apparel made for the sport & not used for it – Include made for Footwear used for the sport • A technical T-shirt made for running and Footwear made for the sport & not used for it used for jogging Equipment – Can include also not made for TOTAL • A cotton T shirt is not made for running but may be used for jogging Made for the sport and not used for it Apparel used for the sport • Inspired by the sport and mostly not Apparel made for the sport & not used for it worn for sport use Footwear used for the sport • A technical T-shirt made for running, Footwear made for the sport & not used for it found in the running shelve, but Equipment finally worn in day to day life by the consumer. TOTAL • A football shirt worn by supporters at the stadium 25 Proprietary and Confidential
  26. 26. Definitions - What Is In? What Is Out? By Sport includes hiking trekking nordic walking, walking for exercice, mountaineering sport sandals, winter boots tents, pads,sleeping bags+ Backpacks/Rucksacks +mattresses (insulating&inflatable) + Poles/Sticks+ Drinking systemsHiking Walking Hiking Backpacks only (other backpacks reported in multisport) + all other camping/hiking gear sold in sport distribution (GPS, maps...) excludes thongs, flip flops and swim sandals (reported in swimming) rock Climbing (reported in other outdoor sports), treadmills (reported in fitness) called soccer in the USFootball excludes rugby ,American football and Australian Football includes multi-purpose belt, reflector, running gloves, water bottle, wrist pocket, reflective armband, MP3 Player armband, hydration belt, high visibilityRunning vest, hydration pack, Excludes treadmills which are counted in fitness, heart rate monitors & watches, deodorising balls, drawstring bag counted in multisportRugby excludes american football reported in other sports Alpine Skiing, Nordic skiing, ice skating Cross country skiing Ski Boots/Binding/poles/Wear/Other Equipment/Ski helmets / Ski masks/Snow Sports After ski /Moon bootsexcluding snowboard + included sales covering services (ski rental, ski repair) Excludes Ice Hockey (reported in other sports), snowboard winter boots (reported in hiking) Are not included here sunglasses –as they can be used for a variety of sports, they are counted in multi sports-Snowboard 26 Proprietary and Confidential
  27. 27. Definitions - What Is In? What Is Out? By Sport All kinds of bicycles whatever usage (sport or way of transportation in day to day life) E-bikes (electrical bikes) Mountain bikes, BMX Road Bike/Wear/Helmet/Shoes/Other EquipmentCycling Bicycle computers, frames and parts,accessories,care products,clothing, gloves, panniers, Helmets Excludes stationary bikes counted in fitness includes horse riding Climbing Sailing Kayaks and canoes, Canyoning Marine sports : Equipment for Scuba Diving/skin diving/Snorkeling Fishing hunting and hence related shoes&garments (rainwear waxed orOther Outdoor sports coated,...) includes hunting and fishing boots Skydiving, paragliding excludes guns & ammunition sold outside sport retailers, gardening boots, All swimwear functionnal swimwear &beach wear (SwimSuits, bathing suits, bathing trunks, bathing shorts, bikinis, swimwear from surf brands and sun protection tops) equipment:Swim Cap/Swim Goggles /Other Swim Equipment including swimSwimming sandals, Buoyancy aids, swimming trainers, buoyancy jackets water polo balls & equipment, aqua gym, aqua fitness, excludes boardshorts counted in summer board sports and Equipment for Marine sports: Scuba Diving/skin diving/Snorkeling counted in other outdoor sportsGolf Club/Ball/Bag/Shoes/Globe/Wear/Other Equipment covers Surfing, Windsurfing, Kitesurfing, Kiteboarding, Bodyboarding, Skateboarding, Wakeboarding wetsuits, surfboards masts&sails, all boardshorts note: wetsuits under equipment lineSummer Board Sports include an estimate for branded thongs and flip flops For apparel covers a selection of brands inspired by the surf/skateboard world exclude swimwear from surfing brands and sun protection tops counted in swimwear 27 Proprietary and Confidential
  28. 28. Definitions - What Is In? What Is Out? By Sport Racket/Ball/Shoes/Wear/Tennis Bag/String/Other Tennis EquipmentTennis exclude any other racket sports softballBaseball Globe/Wear/Bat/Spike/Ball/Bag/Other Equipment Rackets sports (Badminton, Table tennis, Squash, Paddle …) martial arts ( kendo Judo Karate Ju jitsu Sumo)Other sports Ice-Hockey, Inline skating Roller skating, Epées, sables, foil American Football, Cricket,Boxing, Wrestling volley ball, beach volley ball, handball and other ball games Includes all gym club activities + same sports when practiced outside the gym/at home. aerobic fitness training work out in gym wellness yoga taichi pilates Gymnastics, Rhythmic gymnastics,Fitness, Work-out, Training excludes school gym activities reported in multi sportsand Dancing For equipment, covers steppers home fitness & fitness equipment including treadmills, cycling &running trainers, statioanry bikes free weights exercice benches rowing machines elliptical machines exercice cycles and excludes exercice institutionnal (we cover only exercice-consumer) Cover all footwear "sport:fashion sneakers" and garments that cannot be related to one sport specifically by consumers either worn for sport use or not headwear (caps), some tracksuits, cotton T-shirts, polos, bermudas, 3/4 pants, socks, triathlon clothingSport styled, Multi-sports and + apparel footwear made for kids for school gym activities fall in this category asschool gym well Equipment include sales within sport distribution only for backpacks / Day-packs, luggage, sunglasses/optics, sun skin protection exclude hiking backpacks (counted in hiking) 28 Proprietary and Confidential
  29. 29. We Use Gross Domestic Product in Purchasing Power Parity (and Other Inputs) to Estimate the Other Countries. 29 Proprietary and Confidential
  30. 30. Methodology: How Do We Determine Market Size for Countries where no panel is existing?A/ B/ We also know the gross We measure the sports market domestic product (GDP) per size in 10 high income countries. capita for these 10 countries.C/ D/ Also We do have the GDP per For one given level of GDP per capita for every single country in capita, we make the assumption the world. that the following ratio is stable: Spendings on sports GDPA/ B/ C/ D/ Gives us an estimate of the spending per capita on sporting goods for every projected country. 30 Proprietary and Confidential
  31. 31. Methodology: How Do We Determine Market Size for Countries where no panel is existing? High income High incomeGDP per capita GDP per capita > 35 000 USD 25 000- 35 000 USD And 5 other Thresholds of GDP per capita are used: 20 000- 25 000 USD Luxembourg Germany Norway United Kingdom 15 000- 20 000 USD United States Sweden Ireland France Iceland Italy 10 000- 15 000 USD Denmark Taiwan Canada Spain 5 000- 10 000 USD Austria Japan Qatar New Zealand 0-5 000 USD Belgium Greece Finland Slovenia Australia Israel NetherlandsUnited Arab Emirates Singapore Highlighed countries are Sweden those countries where NPD has an on going Belgium tracking or has a partner Finland with on going tracking. Segmentation Of Countries by Income determine the 7 thresholds of ratios Spending on sport / GDP used to calculate sport market size on projected countries. 31 Proprietary and Confidential
  32. 32. Assumptions for Countries with Intermediate and Low IncomeCountries with intermediateand low income spend lessper capita on sports thandeveloped countries. Spending on sport requires leisure time above money, and leisure time is a feature for rich country populations. The question - how much less? - is being simulated by NPD with the help of external sources 32 Proprietary and Confidential
  33. 33. How Does Spending on Sport Grow With Level of Income (GDP)? NOSporting Goods Consumption Level of Income (GDP) 33 Proprietary and Confidential
  34. 34. How Does Spending on Sport Grow With Level of Income (GDP)? Sporting Goods Consumption YES Level of Income (GDP) Countries combining an already significant Sport market with a sporting good consumption growing faster than GDP: This is where brand power is being built up for the future. Spendings on sportsFor low income countries, the ratio : is lower than for high income countries. GDP 34 Proprietary and Confidential
  35. 35. What Makes Our Data Reliable? Independancy from retailers and manufacturers in the data as the recollection of NPD data used for the survey is based on consumer input ; there are many advantages behind an independent external source; one advantage is that the research can be conducted on an on-going basis without being dependant on the industry for data recollection. NPD is Measurement of the market through representative sample in each country available and statistical projection as opposed to other methodologies based on interviews of key brands and retailers from the industry. Comparable data from a time perspective : NPD is sell out not sell-in. We are tracking sales, not feelings or intentions to purchase. Comparable data from a product scope perspective: NPD used harmonized definitions of products in its measurement which is never the case from interviews based methodology. Complete data : NPD tracking allows to consolidate the branded market and the non branded market. NPD also allows to consolidate private labels and very small brands not only the majors. Granularity: NPD is is the unique company recollecting sporting goods data at the maximum granularity available which is item level (one pair of shoes, one garment, one purchase) ; market size is obtained by aggregation as opposed to “guesstimates” built up from interviews conducted within the industry. 35 Proprietary and Confidential
  36. 36. Understanding how NPD is building up their Knowledge of The Sport Industry. Experience of market research Retail / Point of sales panel Online consumer panel Knowledge Meeting on an ongoing basis with (and Learning from) Retailers participating to the POS panel Meeting on an ongoing basis with (and Learning from) Manufacturers clients 36 Proprietary and Confidential
  37. 37. Methodology: Other AssumptionsFootwear Apparel Equipment BikesWe project the split observed in tracked countries on simulated countries, taking into account some factors that matter: – Latitude: Less bikes, more indoor activities, more warm/expensive apparel in northern latitudes. – Level of income: bicycles are a form of transportation in day-to- day life in countries where the population cannot afford a car or a motorbike. – Landscape: Presence of seaside, of mountains. 37 Proprietary and Confidential
  38. 38. Definitions are Slightly Different Between the CountriesDefinition for the United States &Canada We are tracking total apparel & footwear Sport & sport inspired apparel (also called Active wear in the US) is obtained through a filter on the data not through consumer perception Constructed definition based on type of apparel, where purchased, and intended use The additional filters «where purchased» and «intended use» are activated only for some garments which are not obviously belonging to the sport universe (casual pants, turtle necks…) 38 Proprietary and Confidential
  39. 39. Definitions are Slightly Different Between the CountriesDefinition for Japan We are not tracking total apparel & footwear. The survey is tracking Sport and Sport inspired shoes and garments –similar to Europe- NPD does not have a panel representative of total JAPAN. We have a panel representative of TOKYO+ OSAKA which represent roughly 40% of the total japanese population. We are also tracking some equipment categories in Japan 39 Proprietary and Confidential
  40. 40. Definitions are Slightly Different Between the CountriesDefinition in Europe big 5 countries  We are not tracking total apparel & footwear. The survey is tracking Sport and Sport inspired shoes and garments –similar to Japan-  In apparel, survey choices exclude some garments that are 99% not used for sport practice (eg: jeans, city wear).  It is consumer perception and type of garments suggested which finally defines the market size. What is important, is the respondent’s perception of the garment/shoes purchased: Does it relate to sports (then declared) or not (then not declared).  It does not matter if the product has been purchased in specialized sport distribution.  Therefore, the sports territory is not defined by manufacturers or retailers but by consumers. 40 Proprietary and Confidential
  41. 41. Definitions are Slightly Different Between the Countries Definition in Sweden & Netherlands We are tracking total apparel Sport & sport inspired apparel is obtained through a filter on the data not through consumer perception – All purchases used for sport regardless of apparel type category – All specific sport brand sales (closed list) regardless of usage and apparel type category – All purchases coming from the sport retailers. 41 Proprietary and Confidential
  42. 42. Why Do We Use Purchasing Power Parity for GDP? A purchasing power parity change rate is intended to equalize the purchasing power of different currencies. These special exchange rates are often used to compare the standards of living of two or more countries. The adjustments are meant to give a better picture than comparing gross domestic products (GDP) using market exchange rates. Without a PPP exchange rate the GDP may not accurately measure differences in income and consumption. Market exchange rates fluctuate widely, but many people believe that PPP exchange rates reflect the long run equilibrium value. The distortions caused by using market rates are accentuated because prices of non-traded goods and services are usually lower in poorer economies. For example, a U.S. dollar exchanged and spent in China will buy much more than a dollar spent in the United States. The differences between PPP and market exchange rates can be significant. For example, GDP per capita in China is about USD 1,500, while on a PPP basis, it is about USD 6,200. At the other extreme, Japan’s nominal GDP per capita is around USD 37,600, but its PPP figure is only USD 31,400. 42 Proprietary and Confidential
  43. 43. AUTOMOTIVEBEAUTYCOMMERCIAL TECHNOLOGYCONSUMER TECHNOLOGYENTERTAINMENTFASHIONFOOD & BEVERAGEFOODSERVICEHOMEOFFICE SUPPLIESSOFTWARE Thanks for your attentionSPORTSTOYSWIRELESS Copyright The NPD Group, Inc. All Rights Reserved. This presentation is Proprietary and Confidential and 43 may not be disclosed in any manner, in whole or in part, to any third party without the express written consent of NPD. Proprietary and Confidential