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ITEM 7. Global SOC Sequestration Potential Map: Review of the Concept Paper and Technical Specifications - Rosa Cuevas Corona

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Fourth Working Session of the International Network of Soil Information Institutions (INSII)
6-8 November 2018 | FAO HQ – German Room, Rome, Italy

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ITEM 7. Global SOC Sequestration Potential Map: Review of the Concept Paper and Technical Specifications - Rosa Cuevas Corona

  1. 1. Global SOC Sequestration Potential Map (GSOCseq) Ms. Rosa Cuevas
  2. 2. SOC represents the largest C pool contained in terrestrial ecosystems Principal global carbon pools
  3. 3. SOM dynamics in Heilongjiang Province Morrow Plots, Illinois Clearing Prairies (natural grassland) for agriculture Gollany et al, 2011 Ren et al, 2018 long-term rotations experiment in Uruguay by the Century model Climate change • Carbon emissions from LULCC represent the second largest anthropogenic source of carbon into the atmosphere • This emissions are the most uncertain component of the global carbon cycle. Loss of SOC is the second biggest threat to soil functions
  4. 4. Mulching Cover cropping Integrated Nutrient Management Rhizobium Complex farming systems No-till Sustainable soil managementcan increase SOC stocks on agricultural lands Lal, 2017
  5. 5. Several publications about SOC sequestration
  6. 6. Global Soil Organic Carbon Stocks on Croplands Available maps about SOC sequestration Fleskens et al, 2017 Zomer et al, 2017
  7. 7. Global SOC sequestration potential Available maps about SOC sequestration Total biophysical mitigation potentials (all practices, all GHGs: Mt CO2-eq. yrK1) for each region by 2030, showing mean estimates (B1 scenario shown though the pattern is similar for all SRES scenarios). Global soil organic carbon restoration potential Smith et al, 2008 Lal, 2004
  8. 8. Several initiatives about C and SOC sequestration
  9. 9. Estimates of global SOC stocks from the literature through time Median across all estimates 1460.5 Pg C Range 504–3000 Pg C n = 27 studies
  10. 10. GSOCmap: the most recent global estimate of global SOC stocks in the top 30 cm Ground Data Measurements ~1 Million Global SOC Stock ~680 Pg Triggered further actions: Global Soil SOC Sequestration Assessment
  11. 11. Why should we continue with this topic? • There are high expectations on the world's soils to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation. • The United Nations Statistics Division (UNSD), defined the bellow and aboveground SOC stocks as a universal sub-indicator (15.3.1) to asses land degradation. • Need to contribute to enhancement of soil productivity and food security. • There is a request from member countries to generate updated information about the global potential of SOC sequestration. GSOC17, 6th GSP Plenary Assembly/26th COAG session. • Empower countries to know and generate their own information about their SOC sequestration potential.
  12. 12. Why should we continue with this topic? • We approximately know the current SOC stocks GSOCmap and is guiding policies (i.e. Black soils). • We still do not know where there is potential for sequestering SOC so that policies and actions by countries are implemented.
  13. 13. Global assessment of soil organic carbon sequestration potential (GSOCseq) Objective • Preparation of the GSOCseq map following a country-driven approach including country capacity development.
  14. 14. Global assessment of soil organic carbon sequestration potential (GSOCseq) Added value • Country driven approach (bottom-up). • Information will be generated by national experts. • Information will be generated by the countries and for the countries. • Empowerment of the countries. • Capacity development at national and regional level trough SOC modeling and mapping workshops. • Estimation of attainable SOC stocks for each context and country.
  15. 15. Phases Activities Outputs Phase 1 Preparation of technical specifications to develop the GSOCseq 1. Preparation of concept note and technical specifications (ITPS, INSII) 2. Call for preparation of the map to focal points Technical specifications Phase 2 Capacity development in SOC modelling and mapping 1. Preparation of a handbook 2. Tailored capacity development in SOC modelling and mapping 3. Preparation and provision of global datasets: official exchange of edaphic-climatic data between GSP-Secretariat and member countries. Handbook of SOC sequestration potential mapping Capacity building in SOC modelling at national and regional levels Phase 3 Update existing information on global SOC sequestration potential 1. Preparation of national SOC sequestration potential maps by member countries 2. Delivery of national SOC sequestration potential maps. 3. Quality assessment 4. Harmonization and compilation of GSOCseq. 5. Final review by ITPS, IPCC and SPI- UNCCD. 6. Launch during WSD19 National SOC sequestration potential maps available. Global soil organic carbon sequestration potential map launched.
  16. 16. Inspired in the Global Yield Gap Atlas Project http://www.yieldgap.org/gygamaps/app/index. html ‘Gap’ approach •National experts – bottom up •Over 65 countries •Over 25 publications. E.g. Van Ittersum et al., 2013 Grassini et al 2015 Schills et al 2018 •Identyfing environments with greater potential to increase production •establishing priorities for research and public policies among countries and within a country
  17. 17. Technical specifications • Actual: present stocks in a specific edapho-climatic condition (country, regional, sub-regional scale), up to a defined depth, under present LUM. • Attainable: stocks for the same edapho-climatic conditions, under expert recommended LUM to prevent soil degradation and improve soil carbon sequestration, after a defined period of time. • Native vegetation: assuming the system is in ‘equilibrium’ (under ‘pristine’ conditions ) • Saturation: ‘physical’ potential of a specific soil to sequester carbon. “Soil Carbon Gaps conceptual framework”
  18. 18. • Level 1: Minimum data and technical capacity requirements. ‘Empirical’ Models: IPCC with national and regional data. • Level 2: Intermediate data and technical capacity requirements. ‘Soil’ Models: Roth-C type • Level 3: Maximum data and technical capacity requirements. ‘Ecosystem’ Models: CENTURY; DAY-CENT type. • Level and methodology selection will depend on data availability and technical capacity . • Moving to a higher level should improve the accuracy of the estimation and reduce uncertainties. • Through capacity development we have the expectation of aspiring to level two in all countries. • We'll use level 1 when there's no country participation. To estimate attainable SOC Stocks under recommended practices in a 20 years period, a modeling approach is proposed:
  19. 19. Level 1 Empiric, Level 1 approach using global coefficients to estimate attainable SOC stocks Global coefficients Prior to the use of any modeling approach, a ‘general’ empiric estimate of attainable SOC stocks under ‘best’ practices may be performed as a guide
  20. 20. Level 1 ‘ IPCC with national data’ Approach, for the estimation of Attainable SOC stocks under recommended practices Attainable SOC 20y = SOC Ref x FLU x FMG x FI This approach projects net stock changes of C over a given period of time
  21. 21. Level 2 Modeling Approach (no GIS-Modeling Platform)
  22. 22. Level 3 Modeling Approach using a GIS -Modeling Platform
  23. 23. Decision tree to guide the general election of the modeling approach
  24. 24. Estimating Carbon Gaps
  25. 25. Thanks for your attention

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