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Speakers:
Jigjidpurev Sukhbaatar, Livestock Emergency Projects Coordinator and Early Warning Early Action focal point, FAO...
BACKGROUND
MONGOLIAROIFINDINGS
Mortality rates were between 9% and 12% for beneficiaries and 22% for control.
Average share of animals in deteriorated co...
MONGOLIAROIFINDINGS
MONGOLIAROIFINDINGS
MONGOLIAN RED CROSS SOCIETY
Forecast Based Financing (FbF)
Funded by British Red Cross, implemented by Mongolian Red Cross...
Programme
rationale
Large-scale losses of herds have
humanitarian implications
Action to reduce animal deaths are less
eff...
FbF early actions
Unconditional cash grant (USD 100 equiv.) Animal care kit
FbF early action implementation & research
4/15
Impact
survey data
collection
2/01
Post
distribution
monitoring
1/24
Distr...
Vulnerability &
eligibility criteria
Herders with 50-200 livestock who fulfil one of the following:
• Families with multip...
Basic facts
about the FbF intervention
• No duplication with other humanitarian actors
• Presence of Red Cross in all prov...
Map of FbF interventions & sample design
FbF intervention
2,000 HH across 40 soums in 12 provinces
FbF intervention & incl...
Preliminary findings
Assistance came just as winter conditions
were becoming extreme
Households were short on hay and fodd...
Noteworthy
achievements
Cooperation with Meteorology office for early trigger
Collaboration with FAO on intervention & res...
Next steps
Survey data analysis
Cost-benefit analysis
Review of the FbF Early Action Protocol
Identify lessons and share a...
FbF Webinar III: From Early Warning to Early Action in Mongolia - Bracing for the cold to protect livestock and livelihoods
FbF Webinar III: From Early Warning to Early Action in Mongolia - Bracing for the cold to protect livestock and livelihoods
FbF Webinar III: From Early Warning to Early Action in Mongolia - Bracing for the cold to protect livestock and livelihoods
FbF Webinar III: From Early Warning to Early Action in Mongolia - Bracing for the cold to protect livestock and livelihoods
FbF Webinar III: From Early Warning to Early Action in Mongolia - Bracing for the cold to protect livestock and livelihoods
FbF Webinar III: From Early Warning to Early Action in Mongolia - Bracing for the cold to protect livestock and livelihoods
FbF Webinar III: From Early Warning to Early Action in Mongolia - Bracing for the cold to protect livestock and livelihoods
FbF Webinar III: From Early Warning to Early Action in Mongolia - Bracing for the cold to protect livestock and livelihoods
FbF Webinar III: From Early Warning to Early Action in Mongolia - Bracing for the cold to protect livestock and livelihoods
FbF Webinar III: From Early Warning to Early Action in Mongolia - Bracing for the cold to protect livestock and livelihoods
FbF Webinar III: From Early Warning to Early Action in Mongolia - Bracing for the cold to protect livestock and livelihoods
FbF Webinar III: From Early Warning to Early Action in Mongolia - Bracing for the cold to protect livestock and livelihoods
FbF Webinar III: From Early Warning to Early Action in Mongolia - Bracing for the cold to protect livestock and livelihoods
FbF Webinar III: From Early Warning to Early Action in Mongolia - Bracing for the cold to protect livestock and livelihoods
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FbF Webinar III: From Early Warning to Early Action in Mongolia - Bracing for the cold to protect livestock and livelihoods

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Acting early before a disaster is critical: it can save lives and protect livelihoods from the immediate shocks as well as protecting longer term development gains by increasing the resilience of local communities over time. A growing body of evidence also supports the cost effectiveness of this approach. A recent contribution to this repository of knowledge is study of the 2017/2018 localized dzud event in Mongolia, where FAO and the Mongolian Red Cross Society implemented early actions to protect herder livelihoods.
The dzud is the Mongolian term for a harsh and cold winter season, characterized by heavy snowfall and bitter temperatures with some areas reaching -50 degrees. Commonly, these harsh winter periods are preceded by a dry summer period, which can compromise pasture availability and herders ability to collect enough hay for their stores. If the winter is severe, the animals must rely on stores of food rather than grazing. When the supplies run out, the animals get weaker until they freeze or starve to death. Such events are known to wipe out millions of heads of livestock, driving the poorer households into destitution and instigating rural-to-urban migration, as herders search for an alternative income source.
The webinar aims to:
• Provide an overview of the approach taken by FAO’s Early Warning Early Action (EWEA) and Mongolia Red Cross Society’s Forecast-based Financing (FbF) in Mongolia to act early to protect the most at risk and safeguard livestock in the face of dzud;
• Present the results of the Return-on-Investment analysis conducted to quantify the costs and benefits of acting early in Mongolia;
• Present the impact evaluation analysis that describes the reduction of risks achieved by the Forecast-based Financing intervention;
• Discuss the lessons learned from the case of Mongolia, also in light of the risks flagged in FAO’s Early Warning Early Action Report (July-September 2018).
Speakers:
• Jigjidpurev Sukhbaatar, Livestock Emergency Projects Coordinator and Early Warning Early Action focal point, FAO Mongolia
• Niccolò Lombardi, Early Warning Early Action Specialist, FAO
• Clemens Gros, Monitoring and Evaluation Adviser, Red Cross Climate Centre
Moderator:
• Dunja Dujanovic, Technical Officer, Early Warning Early Action, FAO

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FbF Webinar III: From Early Warning to Early Action in Mongolia - Bracing for the cold to protect livestock and livelihoods

  1. 1. Speakers: Jigjidpurev Sukhbaatar, Livestock Emergency Projects Coordinator and Early Warning Early Action focal point, FAO Mongolia Niccolò Lombardi, Early Warning Early Action Specialist, FAO Clemens Gros, Monitoring and Evaluation Adviser, Red Cross Climate Centre Moderator: Dunja Dujanovic, Technical Officer, Early Warning Early Action, FAO
  2. 2. BACKGROUND
  3. 3. MONGOLIAROIFINDINGS
  4. 4. Mortality rates were between 9% and 12% for beneficiaries and 22% for control. Average share of animals in deteriorated conditions at the time of interview was between 19% and 31% for beneficiaries and between 71% and 80% for control. Average share of goats combed in deteriorated conditions was 26% for beneficiaries and 71% for control. Newborn mortality rates were between 0% and 4% for beneficiaries and between 4% and 12% for control. Average milk production per day per cow during the dzud was 0,97 L for beneficiaries and 0.16 L for control.
  5. 5. MONGOLIAROIFINDINGS MONGOLIAROIFINDINGS
  6. 6. MONGOLIAN RED CROSS SOCIETY Forecast Based Financing (FbF) Funded by British Red Cross, implemented by Mongolian Red Cross Society with technical support from the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre, winter of 2017-2018
  7. 7. Programme rationale Large-scale losses of herds have humanitarian implications Action to reduce animal deaths are less effective once the impacts of dzud have already materialized (action in response to the disaster) Timely action to support herders based on a reliable early warning of dzud impacts may be able to reduce overall losses to vulnerable herders Anticipatory action, based on forecast, may be more cost-effective
  8. 8. FbF early actions Unconditional cash grant (USD 100 equiv.) Animal care kit
  9. 9. FbF early action implementation & research 4/15 Impact survey data collection 2/01 Post distribution monitoring 1/24 Distribution of animal care kits 1/23 Distribution of remaining cash grant 12/28 Distribution of cash grant 12/01 Beneficiary registration , selection, validation 11/30 Release of Dzud risk map
  10. 10. Vulnerability & eligibility criteria Herders with 50-200 livestock who fulfil one of the following: • Families with multiple children (more than 5 under 16); • Families with disabled members; • Elderly families aged over 60 who have no guardian; • Single-headed households with 3 or more children under 16. OR: Herders with up to 400 livestock who live in high dzud risk area identified by LEMA. MRCS local branch, volunteers worked together with LEMA, social welfare officers, local government, statistics office & community leaders to identify beneficiaries
  11. 11. Basic facts about the FbF intervention • No duplication with other humanitarian actors • Presence of Red Cross in all provinces, implemented in 12 provinces and 40 soums • 2,000 herder households • 336,429 USD total funding • Direct assistance to herders: 296,041 USD (87%)
  12. 12. Map of FbF interventions & sample design FbF intervention 2,000 HH across 40 soums in 12 provinces FbF intervention & included in survey sample 446 HH across 10 soums from 4 provinces (223 beneficiary; 223 comparison) Dzud risk map
  13. 13. Preliminary findings Assistance came just as winter conditions were becoming extreme Households were short on hay and fodder reserves FbF cash assistance allowed beneficiaries to stock hay/fodder before extreme conditions Enabled herders to buy hay at discounted rates (early enough before price surge) FbF assistance may have contributed to reduced newborn mortality.
  14. 14. Noteworthy achievements Cooperation with Meteorology office for early trigger Collaboration with FAO on intervention & research planning Coordination and information sharing among humanitarian country team (HCT) members Timely assistance to 2,000 herder households Trained & deployed staff and volunteers at the local level Longer-term contract with financial service provider “Khan Bank” Use of complaint hot-line number – 98 106 106
  15. 15. Next steps Survey data analysis Cost-benefit analysis Review of the FbF Early Action Protocol Identify lessons and share as case study

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