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FAO Early Warning Early Action: What's new?

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Oct. 13, 2017

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KORE - Knowledge Sharing Platform on Resilience
KORE@fao.org

INFORMED
INFORMATION FOR NUTRITION FOOD SECURITY AND RESILIENCE FOR DECISION MAKING

3
#ks4resilience
#resilience
#UNFAO

Moderator
Luca Russo
Senior Food Crises Analyst and
Strategic Adviser on resilience, FAO
Speakers
Dunja Dujanovic
Technica...

MONGOLIA??

FAO Early Warning Early Action: What's new?
Comments ?
Questions?
Please write them
in the chat box

THANK YOU !
Give us your feedback
Click on the link
in the chat box
KORE - Knowledge Sharing Platform on Resilience
KORE@f...

KORE - Knowledge Sharing Platform on Resilience
KORE@fao.org

FAO Early Warning Early Action: What's new?

FAO Early Warning Early Action: What's new?

FAO Early Warning Early Action: What's new?

FAO Early Warning Early Action: What's new?

FAO Early Warning Early Action: What's new?

FAO Early Warning Early Action: What's new?

FAO Early Warning Early Action: What's new?

FAO Early Warning Early Action: What's new?

FAO Early Warning Early Action: What's new?

FAO Early Warning Early Action: What's new?

FAO Early Warning Early Action: What's new?

FAO Early Warning Early Action: What's new?

FAO Early Warning Early Action: What's new?

FAO Early Warning Early Action: What's new?

FAO Early Warning Early Action: What's new?

FAO Early Warning Early Action: What's new?

FAO Early Warning Early Action: What's new?

FAO Early Warning Early Action: What's new?

FAO Early Warning Early Action: What's new?

FAO Early Warning Early Action: What's new?

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FAO Early Warning Early Action: What's new?

Oct. 13, 2017

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Evidence shows that the frequency and intensity of climate-driven natural disasters and conflicts is increasing. Natural disasters are occurring nearly five times as often compared to 40 years ago, with great costs to local economies, livelihoods and lives. Expanding needs, competing priorities and scarce resources globally mean that new tools are needed to ensure smart, effective investments to help attenuate the impact of disasters before they occur.
Acting early before a disaster is critical: it can save lives and protect livelihoods from the immediate shocks as well as protecting longer term development gains by increasing the resilience of local communities over time. A growing body of evidence also supports the cost effectiveness of this approach.
FAO’s Early Warning Early Action (EWEA) links forecasts to anticipatory actions to lessen the impact of disasters. It focuses on consolidating available forecasting information and putting plans in place to make sure FAO acts when a warning is at hand.
This webinar is the first event of a mini-series on Forecast-based Financing. It presented the latest developments in FAO's Early Warning Early Action work, including:
• The Global Early Warning - Early Action quarterly update covering the period October to December 2017 to highlight major disaster risks to food security and agriculture;
• The latest EWEA country level work including the brand new EWEA Country Toolkit initiative, the Sudan and Pacific pilots and the case of the Mongolia dzud;
• The cost effectiveness of Early Action: key findings from a Kenya case study; and
• Partnerships and advocacy: what is happening at Inter Agency level and in the more broad international community with regards to FbF?

Evidence shows that the frequency and intensity of climate-driven natural disasters and conflicts is increasing. Natural disasters are occurring nearly five times as often compared to 40 years ago, with great costs to local economies, livelihoods and lives. Expanding needs, competing priorities and scarce resources globally mean that new tools are needed to ensure smart, effective investments to help attenuate the impact of disasters before they occur.
Acting early before a disaster is critical: it can save lives and protect livelihoods from the immediate shocks as well as protecting longer term development gains by increasing the resilience of local communities over time. A growing body of evidence also supports the cost effectiveness of this approach.
FAO’s Early Warning Early Action (EWEA) links forecasts to anticipatory actions to lessen the impact of disasters. It focuses on consolidating available forecasting information and putting plans in place to make sure FAO acts when a warning is at hand.
This webinar is the first event of a mini-series on Forecast-based Financing. It presented the latest developments in FAO's Early Warning Early Action work, including:
• The Global Early Warning - Early Action quarterly update covering the period October to December 2017 to highlight major disaster risks to food security and agriculture;
• The latest EWEA country level work including the brand new EWEA Country Toolkit initiative, the Sudan and Pacific pilots and the case of the Mongolia dzud;
• The cost effectiveness of Early Action: key findings from a Kenya case study; and
• Partnerships and advocacy: what is happening at Inter Agency level and in the more broad international community with regards to FbF?

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FAO Early Warning Early Action: What's new?

1. KORE - Knowledge Sharing Platform on Resilience KORE@fao.org
2. INFORMED INFORMATION FOR NUTRITION FOOD SECURITY AND RESILIENCE FOR DECISION MAKING
3. 3 #ks4resilience #resilience #UNFAO
4. Moderator Luca Russo Senior Food Crises Analyst and Strategic Adviser on resilience, FAO Speakers Dunja Dujanovic Technical Officer, Early Warning Early Action, FAO Catherine Jones Early Warning Early Action Specialist, FAO
5. MONGOLIA??
6. FAO Early Warning Early Action: What's new? Comments ? Questions? Please write them in the chat box
7. THANK YOU ! Give us your feedback Click on the link in the chat box KORE - Knowledge Sharing Platform on Resilience KORE@fao.org
8. KORE - Knowledge Sharing Platform on Resilience KORE@fao.org

Editor's Notes

Two plans are being developed:

Drought
With the Red Cross and developing thresholds and triggers to act together
WASH and crop production go hand-in-hand in the islands – work together to act the same time and implement

Cyclones
In the Pacific, there are long-range forecasts that can provide a proxy overview of the intensity and number of cyclones to hit the region – particularly high-risk countries. We draw on Fiji, New Zealand and Australian Meteorological services for this information. High-risk countries then begin early actions, on a no-regrets basis, such as mobile gardens and the creation of safe havens

With short term forecasts there is minimal time to act. Indicators measure how much time, how strong and the path of the cyclone. If there is a high chance a country could be impacted, FAO will concentrate on using telecommunication messaging (texts and radio) to issue early actions – such as fishers staying close to shore, burying boats under sand or placing fishing nets in a safe haven
Indicator tool draws upon three types of data: vulnerability, global and seasonal forecasts

Tests were carried out amongst the indicators, their respective thresholds and weights to reflect enough balance between an assessment of current conditions and forward looking information.
The Global EWEA Report is a:
Quarterly
Forward-looking report

Focuses on major risks to agriculture and food security globally

Provides a snapshot into the current and forecasted situation

To select countries, regions or global risks, we draw upon a wide range of information sources both in-house and externally.

This includes:

1) FAO’s Global Information and Early Warning System
2) Food Chain Crisis – Emergency Protection Systems
3) Integrated Food Security Phase Classification

Based on these information sources + external sources is discussed with the early warning system focal points group – where final vetting and ranking of countries is agreed. This is based on the likelihood, impact and country capacity to cope with the event at hand.

Early Actions are also recommended
Tailored to specific risks
Developed alongside country offices
In-house experts

Strategically, the report contributes to the IASC EWEA programme and the Global Food Crisis Report

We have recently released the next edition of the Global EWEA Report for October to December

This is our fifth edition and it also includes some features such as seasonality maps for key cropping times for all countries included and funding requirements for Food Security and Agriculture clusters

It can be accessed via our website, the link is on the webinar invitation

Short overview of results
So for the edition of the report we have:

7 high risk countries

7 countries on-watch alongside 3 regional/global risks

In the report, we also include protracted crises such as South Sudan and Yemen if there is evidence that reveals the situation could further deteriorate

Comparative to the last report we have new risks, particularly in the Asia Region including DPRK, Myanmar, Nepal, Bangladesh and Mongolia

In particular, the analysis of Mongolia has initiated talks with our country office to scope early actions, primarily for safeguarding livestock, in light of a potential dzud.

Therefore the global analysis can create a space to identify where FAO can best intervene with early actions
In light of the devastating impacts of 2015/2016 El Niño event, the El Nino SOPs were created to help provide a framework for monitoring the events and provide suggestions on early actions to take and technical support to implementing them.

The plan is to use these SOPs to monitor extreme weather patterns, however El Nino and La Nino events are currently the testing board

The SOPs were first tested in June 2017, in light of a potential El Niño forming – this ignited the Global El Niño Cell were the SOPs were first piloted

Lead to identification of high-risk countries and communications to country offices

Potential activation could happen again in light of recent La Nina forecasts