ICN2-Economic implications of changing food consumption patterns

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Economic implications of changing food consumption patterns.
Franco Sassi PhD (OECD – Health Division)
Rome, 14th November 2013

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  • Apply a shock Δi for a period of ten years : values given health department model
  • Decrease by 30 % at the end of the period of the simulation
  • Cross-sectional costs are higher for obese patients; obese patients cost 30% more than normal-weight patients
    But lower costs in a life perspective as lower life-expectancy

    Obesity accounts for 1 to 3% of total health expenditure in most countries and up to 10% in the US

    Obesity accounts for up to 1% of GDP in most OECD countries, over 1% in the US and up to 4% in China
  • ICN2-Economic implications of changing food consumption patterns

    1. 1. Economic implications of changing food consumption patterns Franco Sassi OECD – Health Division PREPARATORY TECHNICAL MEETING FAO Headquarters, Rome, Italy 13-15 November 2013
    2. 2. ECONOMIC IMPLICATIONS OF CHANGING FOOD CONSUMPTION PATTERNS Franco Sassi PhD OECD – Health Division Rome, 14th November 2013
    3. 3. UN High-level Meeting on NCDs
    4. 4. Leading Risk Factors for Health Attributable Mortality, 2004 Source: WHO, 2009
    5. 5. Deaths from NCDs Worldwide, by Income Group 60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 0 2004 2015 2030 High income Higer-middle income Lower-middle income Low income Source: WHO estimates and projections, 2008
    6. 6. Obesity: a Global Epidemic India China Russia OECD Brazil S Africa UK Mexico 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% % of adult population • In Brazil, obesity tripled in men and doubled in women in 30 years; in India, up to 40% are overweight in urban areas • Diabetes in China is now as common as in the US • Obesity accounts for less than 1% of GDP in most OECD countries, over 1% in the US and up to 4% in China
    7. 7. The OECD/WHO CDP Model Fibre adequate fibre intake low fibre intake Physical activity adequate physical act insuff .physical act Body mass index normal weight pre-obesity obesity Blood pressure normal hypertension Cholesterol normal hypercholesterolemia Glycaemia normal diabetes Cancers Stroke Ischemic heart disease Fat low fat intake medium fat intake high fat intake Socio-economic status upper lower
    8. 8. A Comprehensive & Affordable Prevention Package OECD Countries Emerging Economies Mass media campaigns Mass media campaigns Compulsory food labelling Compulsory food labelling Industry self-regulation of food advertising to children Government regulation of food advertising to children Physician-dietician counselling Fiscal measures School-based interventions Canada Europe Brazil China 24.03 $/cap 22.45 $/cap 0.40 $/cap 0.20 $/cap
    9. 9. What Can Prevention Achieve?
    10. 10. Prevention Keeps Healthy Years of Life Free of NCDs Cancers (lung, colorectal, breast) Cardiovascular diseases 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Million life years Time (years) 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 10 20 30 40 50 Million life years Time (years) Europe China Brazil Canada
    11. 11. An Affordable Prevention Package 5 4 3 2 1 0 1.2 0.4 India China Brazil South Africa Russian Federation 4.5 Mexico US$ per head High blood pressure & cholesterol Unhealthy diet and physical inactivity Alcohol use Tobacco use
    12. 12. Prevention is a Good Investment Impact on Health Expenditure 0 -20 -40 -60 -80 -100 -120 -140 0 10 20 30 40 50 $ / capita Time (years) Europe Canada Brazil China
    13. 13. % Decrease Required in Fat Consumption COUNTRIES % decrease on average (2012-2021) Argentina -0.9 Australia -1.4 Brazil -0.9 Canada -1.2 Chile -0.9 China -0.8 European Union -1.1 India -0.7 Japan -0.8 Korea -0.8 Mexico -1.4 New Zealand -1.4 Russian Federation -0.8 United States -1.4
    14. 14. Scenario 1 Results % Atlantic beef world price 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 % Cheese world price difference 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 % Vegetable oil world price difference 0 -1 -2 -3 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 % Coarse grains world price difference 0 -1 -2 -3 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
    15. 15. SATURATED FAT REDUCTION needed to meet WHO guidelines 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 Reductions to meet 10% calorie intake EU NZL AUS USA BRA RUS ARG MEX CHN
    16. 16. Scenario2 Results 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Bovine consumption and production (kt) baseline scenario 10% baseline scenario 10 % Consumption Production USA BRA E27 CHN
    17. 17. 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Scenario2 Results Pacific beef and veal price (USD/t) baseline scenario 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
    18. 18. 1400 1200 1000 800 600 400 200 0 Scenario2 Results Vegetable oil world price baseline scenario 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
    19. 19. Key Policy Implications • Obesity and NCDs are global economic issues • Food and nutrition policies must be part of a comprehensive intersectoral prevention strategy • Potential for major health, health expenditure and productivity gains • Limited effects on world markets imply such changes should be economically sustainable over the medium and long term

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