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Assessment and monitoring of global tilapia markets - a forthcoming technical paper for FAO WAPI module on fish trade

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http://www.fao.org/3/a-i3539e.pdf

World Aquaculture Performance Indicators (WAPI) is an endeavour initiated by the FAO Fisheries and Aquaculture Department to develop user-friendly tools for compiling, generating and providing easy access to quantitative information on aquaculture sector performance at the national, regional and global levels. The ppt presents a forthcoming technical paper as a background document for a potential FAO WAPI module on fish trade.

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Assessment and monitoring of global tilapia markets - a forthcoming technical paper for FAO WAPI module on fish trade

  1. 1. ASSESSMENT AND MONITORING OF GLOBAL TILAPIA MARKETS A forthcoming technical paper for FAO WAPI module on fish trade
  2. 2. Research Team Wang, Weiwei: Fishery Market Analyst, FIAM Liang, Xiao: Project Officer, Agricultural trade promotion Center, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing, China Cai, Junning: Aquaculture Officer (Economics), FIAA Shen, Nianjun: Fishery Industry Officer, FIAM 2
  3. 3. Tilapia: the most popular aquaculture species + one of the most traded seafood commodities This paper would: • Develop a set of indicators for assessment and monitoring of global tilapia markets. • Assess the status of tilapia international trade markets in 2015 and monitor its trend between 2015 and 2014 at the global, regional and national levels and highlight some salient patterns or stylized facts. 3 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Milliontons Global tilapia production (million tonnes) Aquaculture Capture
  4. 4. 4 Method and data
  5. 5. 5 Data source: Global Trade Atlas (GTA) Commodity: 9 tilapia commodity groups  Four basic commodities • Fresh whole tilapia: HS030271 • Frozen whole tilapia: HS030323 • Fresh fillet tilapia: HS030431 • Frozen fillet tilapia: HS030461  Five aggregated commodities • Fresh tilapia: HS030271+HS030431 • Frozen tilapia: HS030323 + HS030461 • Whole tilapia: HS030271+HS030323 • Fillet tilapia: HS030431+HS030461 • All tilapia:HS030271+HS030323+HS030431+HS030461 Market: over 200 international markets at different levels  National markets (180)  Regional markets (31 regional or sub-regional markets, 24 trade blocs or ad hoc groups)  The world market
  6. 6. 6 Indicators Basic market conditions Market size • Quantity (kg or tonne) • Value (USD) Price (USD/kg) Market structure Number of suppliers Effective number of suppliers (Entropy index) Market potential Per capita import (USD/person/year or kg/person/year) Share of tilapia in the import of HS 4-digit commodity groups • Fresh whole tilapia (HS030271) in fresh whole fish (HS0302) • Frozen whole tilapia (HS030323) in frozen whole fish (HS0303) • Fresh fillet tilapia (HS030431) in fillet fish (HS0304) • Frozen fillet tilapia (HS030461) in fillet fish (HS0304)
  7. 7. 7 Tilapia markets in 2014 and 2015: a global overview
  8. 8. Global tilapia market (quantity) 8 Image: @2017 Google
  9. 9. Commodity composition of global tilapia market in 2015 9 Nearly two billion USD by value Half million tonnes by quantity Whole tilapia 22% Fillet tilapia 78% [] [] Frozen whole tilapia 20% Fresh fillet tilapia 13% Frozen fillet tilapia 65% Whole tilapia 38% Fillet tilapia 62% Fresh whole tilapia 2% Frozen whole tilapia 36% Fresh fillet tilapia 7% Frozen fillet tilapia 55% 0.5 million tonnes 1.7 billion USD
  10. 10. Declined global tilapia markets: 2015 vs. 2014 10
  11. 11. 11 Selected examples of indicator analysis
  12. 12. 12 1. Market size
  13. 13. United States: the largest tilapia market in the world 13 China 75% Indonesia 5% Honduras 5% Taiwan Province of China 4% Colombia 2% Costa Rica 2% Mexico 2% Viet Nam 2% Ecuador 1% rest of world 2% Top suppliers of all tilapia to the US market, quantity, 2015 Commodity composition in United States of America in 2015 by Value Value: 962 million USD Quantity: 215,585 tons Whole tilapia 7% Fillet tilapia 93% Fresh whole tilapia 1% Frozen whole tilapia 6% Fresh fillet tilapia 19% Frozen fillet tilapia 74% 962 million
  14. 14. 14 2. Price
  15. 15. Africa: the largest market for frozen whole tilapia; above- average price in many African countries 15  Africa accounts for 51 percent of world frozen whole tilapia market in quantity, and 55 percent in value.  Africa’s average frozen whole tilapia market price is 2.13, higher than the world average price of 2.01. Value: 192 million USD Quantity: 89,484 tonnes Image: @2017 Google
  16. 16. 16 3. Number of suppliers VS. Effective number of suppliers
  17. 17. Number of suppliers VS. Effective number of suppliers 17  European countries have high number of suppliers and higher number of effective number of suppliers.  Generally speaking, the bigger the market size, the more suppliers it has, and the larger the effective number of suppliers. (Austria)  Some countries have more number of suppliers, but relatively low effective number of suppliers. (United States) 10 12 3 1 7 11 8 1 2 1 52 121 2 111 3 1 11 1 13 12 2 9 1 1 6 5 11 7 4 6 2 3 7 6 5 7 1 9 12 15 133 10 4 9 4 18 9 7 4 10 12 8 13 12 20 2 4 1 10 20 4 11 1 9 16 30 1628 20 5 1 20 19 1 2 1 1 11 2 1 4 1 3 2 111 3 2 11 10 3 4 5 8 3 5 1 8 8 11 3 4 1 2 25 30 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 0.000001 0.00001 0.0001 0.001 0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1000 10000 Effectivenumberofsuppliers Market size ( million USD) All tilapia Africa Asia Europe Latin America and Caribbean Northern America Oceania Bubble size: number of suppliers United States Austria
  18. 18. 18 Top suppliers of all tilapia, quantity, 2015 China 30% Netherlands 22% Germany 17% Italy 16% Philippines 3% Kazakhstan 3% Poland 2% Denmark 1% Indonesia 1% rest of the world 5% Austria China 75% Indones ia 5% Honduras 5% Taiwan Province of China 4% Colombia 2% Costa Rica 2% Mexico 2% Viet Nam 2% Ecuador 1% rest of world 2% United States More evenly distributed market share: Number of suppliers: 30 Effective number of suppliers: 8.66 More concentrated market share: Number of suppliers: 30 Effective number of suppliers: 4.09
  19. 19. 19 4. Per capita import
  20. 20. Per capita import of frozen fillet tilapia 20 1. World average per capita import of frozen fillet tilapia in 2015 is 0.15USD/person/year. 2. Israel has the largest per capita import of 4.61$/person/year, followed by Costa Rica (2.8), Macao China (2.73), Sint Maarten(2.3) and USA(2.2). 3. The per capita import of most African countries are below world average. Image: @2017 Google
  21. 21. 21 5. Share of tilapia in the import of HS 4-digit commodity groups
  22. 22. Share of frozen whole tilapia in frozen whole fish 22 1. African countries have higher share of frozen whole tilapia in frozen whole fish. 2. Zambia, South Sudan and Somalia have a share close to 100%. 3. The United states has a value share of 10% and a quantity share of 20%. 4. About 100 countries’ market share are less than 10%. Image: @2017 Google
  23. 23. 23 Salient patterns and stylized facts
  24. 24. Developed regions favor fillet tilapia, developing regions favor whole tilapia 24 Commodity composition of developed regions Commodity composition of developing regions Whole tilapia 21% Fillet tilapia 79% Fresh whole tilapia 2% Frozen whole tilapia 19% Fresh fillet tilapia 10% Frozen fillet tilapia 69% 0.3 million tonnes Whole tilapia 63% Fillet tilapia 37% Fresh whole tilapia 3% Frozen whole tilapia 61% Fresh fillet tilapia 1% Frozen fillet tilapia 35% 0.2 million tonnes
  25. 25. Netherland and Belgium: both a large market and a large supplier of fresh fillet tilapia to European market 25 Netherlands 38% Belgium 15% United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland 8% Denmark 8% Poland 6% Spain 5% Germany 4% Greece 3% Latvia 2% rest of the world 11% Top suppliers of fresh fillet tilapia in Europe, quantity, 2015 The Netherlands and Belgium have a clear focus on re-exporting fillet tilapia to other E.U. countries.(http://pdf.gaalliance.org/pdf/GAA- Fernandez-Nov14.pdf market place)
  26. 26. Costa Rica’s tilapia export goes to the USA 26  USA imported 4922 tonnes of fresh fillet tilapia from Costa Rica in 2015, which takes about 92% of Costa Rica’s export of all tilapia. United States of America 97% Canada 2% France 1% rest of the world 0% Costa Rica's export market of all tilapia, quantity, 2015
  27. 27. Myanmar 40% Pakistan 12% China 11% Bangladesh 11% Honduras 8% Mexico 6% Costa Rica 5% Colombia 5% Viet Nam 1% rest of the world 1% Suppliers for the USA market, fresh whole tilapia, quantity, 2015 (1,200 tonnes, 5.5 million USD) Who are the largest suppliers of fresh whole tilapia to the United States? 27  In 2013, “Sustainable Seafood Industry Development” project launched by University of Arizona and Yangon University, supported by USAID, greatly drove the exports of whole fresh tilapia from Myanmar to the USA.(http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/business/2013-07/21/c_132559309.htm )  The American Soybean Association’s (ASA), World Initiative for Soy in Human Health (WISHH) program began a three-year program in 2011 called “FEEDing Pakistan.” The program aims to enhance the country’s growing aquaculture sector through trial fish feeding using high–protein, floating fish feed produced from U.S. soybean meal, and it also provided valuable training to fish farmers. The main specie was tilapia. (http://blogs.usda.gov/2012/10/03/aquaculture-supports-u-s-soy/ )
  28. 28. China dominate frozen whole tilapia in African markets 28 98% of African market of all tilapia goes to frozen whole tilapia, where 98% of them are imported from China. China 98% India 1% Thailand 0% rest of the world 1% Suppliers for African market, frozen whole tilapia, quantity, 2015
  29. 29. Oceania strongly rely on Taiwan Province of China for frozen whole tilapia 29 1. The Oceania market has a strong preference for frozen whole tilapia (1,415 tons) with an import share of 93% of all tilapia. 2. Its importing price (2.25 USD/Kg) of frozen whole tilapia is the highest among all regions, reflecting high quality product? High transportation cost? Taiwan Province of China 85% China 9% Malaysia 3% Viet Nam 2% Thailand 1% rest of the world 0% Top suppliers for Oceania market, frozen whole tilapia, quantity, 2015
  30. 30. High Price in UAE probably resulted by long distance transport from the UK and demand for high quality product 30  UAE imported 33.7 tons of fresh tilapia fillets in total in 2015, with UK supplying more than 80%.  UAE has a high importing price of fresh tilapia fillets of 12.29 USD/Kg, where the world average price is 7.16 USD/Kg. Long distance transportation and demand for high quality products might be important reasons that bring up the price. United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland 83% Thailand 17% Top suppliers of fresh fillet tilapia to UAE market, quantity, 2015
  31. 31. 31 FAO World Aquaculture Performance Indicators (WAPI): An initiative to facilitate evidence-based policymaking and sector management in aquaculture and fisheries
  32. 32. Welcome collaboration on WAPI WAPI@fao.org 32

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