1.
Constraints on beef exports in Kyrgyzstan
presenter: Dauren Oshakbayev
Bishkek, 19 October 2016
TALAP center of applied
research
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исследований
WORKSHOP
Agricultural export promotion in Kyrgyzstan
18 – 19th of October 2016

2.
Beef production TALAP center of applied
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• Total production of beef: 98’400
MT
• Production system: remote
pastures in highlands (from May to
October) fattening period at farms
or winter pastures.
• Cattle fattening is increasingly
popular business: traders gather
and transport ~80% of 18 months’
bulls to the lowlands for fattening. Collective farms
1%
Peasant
farms
50%
Households
49%
Structure of beef production by farm type
Source: National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic

3.
Exports of live animals
prevail
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Exports of live bovine
animals by destination (MT)
• Official exports* of beef – 17.3 MT
• Official live animals exports – ~0,5%
of cattle population
• Presumably substantial unofficial
smuggling to Kazakhstan until 2014
• Frozen beef imports – 1’210 MT
Country 2010-13 mean
Kazakhstan 446
Tajikistan 615
Uzbekistan 375
Kuwait 0,34
Total 1 437
Source: UN Comtrade database
* 2010-13 mean

4.
Growing domestic demand
on beef
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Beef share is 50% among meat and meat products in weight and 70% in
expenditures.
Consumption of beef is increasing (14% during 2010-14), while other
types of meat remain stable
53%
72%
20%
10% 3%
7%
6%
20%
8%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Share in consumption
Share in expenditures
beef mutton sausages poultry meat other meat products
Source: National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic
Consumption of different types of meat and
meat production in 2014 (kg per caput)

5.
Consumption estimate TALAP center of applied
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Item 2010-13 mean
Exports 0,02
Imports 1,2
Production 97,6
Estimated consumption 98,8
Consumption in HH, survey 48,1
Processing, max estimate 10,1
Other consumption
(HoReCa and grey exports)
40,6
Estimates of beef consumption in Kyrgyzstan ('000 MT)
42% of beef production is consumed elsewhere – presumably by
HoReCa and grey exporters
Source: own estimates, based on National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic and UnComtrade data

6.
Beef prices are affected
by currencies volatility
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270
290
310
330
350
370
390
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
May-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Aug-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Apr-16
May-16
Jun-16
Beef retail price in Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan and Russia (KGS per kg)
Kyrgyzstan Kazakhstan Russia
Source: National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic, Goskomstat of Russian Fed., KazStat
Start of RUB volat.
Start of RUB deval.
Start of KZT deval.

7.
Effects of currency
disparity
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• Beef prices in Kazakhstan are affected by price in Russia and
KZT/RUB exchange rate
• KZ beef price pulled market in Kyrgyzstan
• Market compensates currency volatility shocks, although with
some latency
• Anecdotal evidences:
• Kyrgyz buyers came to Astana looking for beef
• Farmers look for new options of marketing to get higher
price
• grey KG-KZ beef trade changed direction to opposite

8.
Key constraints to beef
exports
TALAP center of applied
research
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• Currency disparity with Kazakhstan and Russia looks like the
most significant factor discouraging exports to respective
countries
• Veterinary situation: improvement in this area may potentially
open door to Chinese market