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Major trends in diets nutrition 2050

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Siwa Msangi, IFPRI
Expert consultation on trade and nutrition
15-16 November 2016, FAO Headquarters, Rome
http://www.fao.org/economic/est/est-events-new/tradenutrition/en/

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Major trends in diets nutrition 2050

  1. 1. Major trends in diets & nutrition: A global perspective to 2050 Siwa Msangi Environment & Production Technology Division International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) Expert consultation on trade & nutrition Mexico Room, FAO Headquarters, Rome 15 November 2016
  2. 2. Page 2 During the course of this presentation…. I will: • Discuss an overview of past global diet trends • Discuss some of the key socio-economic drivers and a framework for projections to 2050 • Discuss projections of food consumption and nutrient intake to 2050 • Look at those regions which fall in the ‘Bottom Billion’ of macro-nutrient sufficiency and intake • Discuss some implications and further work
  3. 3. Past trends of diets and nutrition
  4. 4. Per capita cereal consumption
  5. 5. Per capita roots & tuber cons’n
  6. 6. Per capita fruits & vegetable cons’n
  7. 7. Per cap (non-fish)meat consumption
  8. 8. Per capita fish consumption
  9. 9. Per capita pulses cons’n
  10. 10. Per cap calorie availability
  11. 11. Per cap protein availability
  12. 12. A forward-looking analysis
  13. 13. Important drivers of change in food markets
  14. 14. Population projections to 2050
  15. 15. Urbanization projections to 2050
  16. 16. Per capita income projections to 2050
  17. 17. Per Capita Cereal Consumption
  18. 18. Per Capita Meat Consumption
  19. 19. Per cap Fruit & Vegetable Consumption
  20. 20. Per cap Roots & Tuber Consumption
  21. 21. Looking more closely at diet quality • We can look more closely at the macro-nutrient component of consumption to get a sense of diet quality • In our projections we focus on these macro- nutrients: – Carbohydrates – Protein – Dietary Fiber • Others like Fat and water are also important • For now – we don’t look at micro-nutrients (especially since the question of bio-availability is tricky for nutrients like iron) Page 21
  22. 22. General description of a ‘healthy’ diet Page 22 Dietary factor Goal (% of total energy, unless otherwise stated) Total Fat 15--30% Total carbohydrate 55--75% Protein 10--15% Cholesterol <300 mg per day Sodium chloride (sodium) <5 g per day (<2 g per day) Fruits and vegetables 5400 g per day Total dietary fibre From foods Source: Table 6, WHO (2003)
  23. 23. The ‘Bottom Billion’ of dietary quality • There is more than one way to characterize poor nutrition and dietary quality • In this analysis – we look at those regions which fall into the bottom 20% of regional rankings for sufficiency of macro-nutrient intake • In terms of these macro-nutrients: – Carbohydrates – fall below 40% of RDI – Protein – fall below 25-30% of RDI – Dietary Fiber – fall below 20% of RDI • We identify those regions which fall into this bottom bracket at the beginning of our projections (w/o letting them ‘graduate’ over time, for now…) Page 23
  24. 24. African Countries in the ‘Bottom Billion’ country/region Fiber Protein Carbohydrates Benin x x x Burkina Faso x x Burundi x x x Cameroon x x Central African Republic x x Chad x x x Congo x x x Democratic Republic of Congo x x x Ethiopia x x Côte d’Ivoire x x x Kenya x x x Madagascar x x x Mali x x Mauritania x x Malawi x x x Mozambique x x x Niger x x Rwanda x x x South Africa x x Tanzania x x x Togo x x x Uganda x x Zimbabwe x x Note: The “x” indicates countries that fall below the threshold
  25. 25. ‘Bottom Billion’ countries in Asia and Latin America Country/region Fiber Protein Carbohydrates Bangladesh x x x Central America and the Caribbean x x Colombia x x Mongolia x x Myanmar x x x Nepal x x x North Korea x x x SE Asia (Cambodia, Laos) x x x Sri Lanka x x x Vietnam x x Note: The “x” indicates countries that fall below the threshold
  26. 26. Achievement of RDI for carbohydrates (% of RDI met)
  27. 27. Achievement of RDI for proteins (% of RDI met)
  28. 28. Achievement of RDI for dietary fiber (% of RDI met)
  29. 29. Little progress to 2050 for the ‘Bottom Billion’ • According to our baseline projections, the ‘bottom billion’ don’t make very large gains in their progress towards meeting RDI of key macro-nutrients • Other regions, by contrast, progress strongly in meeting RDIs to 2050 – especially E, SE Asia & MENA • LAC and S Asia do better in increasing carbohydrate RDI than for protein or fiber • SS Africa does better on average compared to the ‘bottom billion’ and shows there are some regions that have potential to do well Page 29
  30. 30. Further work… • Go beyond macro-nutrients to get to the essential micro-nutrients (need to deal with questions of absorption & bio-availability) • Explore further how to make aquaculture take off in SS Africa (technology transfer + innovations in feed mkts needed) • This analysis only takes market purchases into account – the effects of social transfers & other programs not captured • This global analysis doesn’t take socio- economic strata into account – needs a closer country-specific analysis to see those details Page 30
  31. 31. Thank you! Grazie!
  32. 32. Extra slides
  33. 33. As people get richer they consume more animal products Consumption of Meat

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